Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MCE - Matrix Composites & Engineering

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Seems some companies are still going ahead with new offshore projects in this climate.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9Q348L80.htm

Here we go with the China thing again, even if optimistic the IEA figures do point to some growth

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=111339&hmpn=1


Lots of work seems to be going on in our region, when is MCE going to get a share of the spoils?

http://www.rigzone.com/news/region.asp?r_id=4

Demand seems to be increasing as well. This report is dated 02/05/11 so it would be interesting to see if things have changed

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=106716
 
That article rings alarm bells in my mind. If MCE is keeping its workers in the dark, then what is it not telling its shareholders?
 
McCoy Pauley said:
Follow up article in The West Australian reporting that MCE laid off 70 workers from its Malaga plant.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/10374174/matrix-lays-off-70-workers/
Click to expand...

They made it sounds like the relocation is a big deal. Looking at google maps Malaga is ~50km from Henderson. Sure it's a bit of a drive if you lived on the wrong side of town but it's probably not a good enough reason to not stay on an otherwise good employment.

The situation doesn't smell right... with the most likely explanation that total employment needs are acutally much reduced stemming from the lack of work.

It will take an analyst a tour of Hendersen to confirm if that is the case.
 
skc said:
They made it sounds like the relocation is a big deal. Looking at google maps Malaga is ~50km from Henderson. Sure it's a bit of a drive if you lived on the wrong side of town but it's probably not a good enough reason to not stay on an otherwise good employment.

The situation doesn't smell right... with the most likely explanation that total employment needs are acutally much reduced stemming from the lack of work.

It will take an analyst a tour of Hendersen to confirm if that is the case.
Click to expand...

The Henderson plant is more automated and should save labour but I have to agree with you it is a little confusing.
 
Huskar said:
And he sure bought at the right time: $3.22 average price for his $130k worth of shares by my back of the envelope calculation...
Click to expand...

May be he's not as in the loop as he thinks.

MCE just downgraded their FY12 revenue forecast from 20% growth to 0-10% growth, quantified with the most dredged 5 words for any investor, "skewed to the 2nd half".

Share price printed a new low @ $2.93 but now recovered to $3.08. Lucky that their AGM is held on a day where the market is pretty mild.
 
Going to have to be a bonza second half if they are to even come close to comparing earnings with FY11 considering the statement is indicating a 'break-even' first half...
More downgrades coming???

This could be a great stock to purchase if demand increases and the AUD drops...however it looks like at least another 6 months of pain for holders..
 
VSntchr said:
Going to have to be a bonza second half if they are to even come close to comparing earnings with FY11 considering the statement is indicating a 'break-even' first half...
More downgrades coming???

This could be a great stock to purchase if demand increases and the AUD drops...however it looks like at least another 6 months of pain for holders..
Click to expand...

Have to agree with you there VSntchr, I am way overweight this stock and am now considering swallowing the bitter pill and taking my losses and selling. :banghead:

I still have a positive long term view of MCE however and may consider a smaller holding in the future.
 
I am hearing they want to underplay their hand this time around after copping a lot of flak for stuffing the market around previously (not preparing well enough). I wouldn't be surprised to see an excess even mid year and then full year and a nice boost consequently in the price.
 
cowboyA said:
I am hearing they want to underplay their hand this time around after copping a lot of flak for stuffing the market around previously (not preparing well enough). I wouldn't be surprised to see an excess even mid year and then full year and a nice boost consequently in the price.
Click to expand...

Whom are you hearing from, if I may ask?
 
robusta said:
Have to agree with you there VSntchr, I am way overweight this stock and am now considering swallowing the bitter pill and taking my losses and selling. :banghead:

I still have a positive long term view of MCE however and may consider a smaller holding in the future.
Click to expand...

I hope you've read a lot about position sizing being the most important aspect of investing and risk management... and you do need a lot of discipline to follow that, no matter how enticing an opportunity may appear.

robusta said:
SP $57.98 today, I am fairly happy however I do wish I threw everything into COH 20 days ago.
Click to expand...

No you don't. On COH you managed a great entry, sized your position appropriately and have a nice % return on your capital. That's the right process and that's all you can ask for.

If you threw everything into COH it would have been wrong even if it goes up.
 
I heard Elio D'Amato from Lincoln Indicators talking about MCE today and I think what annoyed him most about the revised earnings outlook announcement was that is wasn't even marked as "price sensitive" when lodged with the ASX. I wonder what the the ASX think about that.

Well this is a stock I've completely stuffed up in holding onto.
 
tinhat said:
I heard Elio D'Amato from Lincoln Indicators talking about MCE today and I think what annoyed him most about the revised earnings outlook announcement was that is wasn't even marked as "price sensitive" when lodged with the ASX. I wonder what the the ASX think about that.

Well this is a stock I've completely stuffed up in holding onto.
Click to expand...

I was thinking about that as well - a 10% downgrade in outlook is certainly price sensitive, right?

I think this stock will have some pain for a while but the medium to long term prospects are very good. We shall see. I hold.
 
tinhat said:
I heard Elio D'Amato from Lincoln Indicators talking about MCE today and I think what annoyed him most about the revised earnings outlook announcement was that is wasn't even marked as "price sensitive" when lodged with the ASX. I wonder what the the ASX think about that.
Click to expand...

drlog said:
I was thinking about that as well - a 10% downgrade in outlook is certainly price sensitive, right?
Click to expand...

Seems to happen a fair bit these days with AGM outlook statements. Without the announcement being marked sensitive there is no stoppage in the trading of the shares, and it ends up being a game of who can read the announcement quicker.

Now they said H1 NPAT is breakeven and there's $9.6m non-recurring costs mostly related to relocating to the new plant. I am reading that as the breakeven result is after the non-recurring items. Is that what people think? It would be horrible if it wasn't.

It always amazes me how the market sometimes get it so right. When MCE results came out I thought the market over-reacted a little bit. Turns out the collective wisdom was correct this time (so far).
 
I'm hearing that they don't seem to have been up front with much and have been displaying a talent for hoodwinking astute and concervative analysts who are now putting them in the spec basket.
 

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