MAY - Melbana Energy

[mailman]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Please help me!

I need to see some gas at the end of the tunnel.

When is MEO on the up!

Please help ohhh wise one.

 

[mailman]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

EPENARRA/DARWIN

We know:

* Analysis of the 1972 Heron-1 core samples by the CSIRO indicated the presence of low CO2 gas and oil condensate.
* This was backed up by the drilling data from Heron-2, which confirmed a 50m gas saturated column wet with hyrocarbons and no CO2.
* The formation is c.1,200-1,400kmsq.

We don�t know:

* How the Epenarra will flow in the imminent test. It�s one thing to have the gas there but if you can�t get it out it�s not worth much.

What gives us cause to be optimistic:

* The Heron-2 drilling data shows that the well went through four major fracture sets (being a �fractured carbonate�, the fractures in the rock are the means by which the gas trapped in the rock escapes) which increases the likelihood of getting some gas.
* The data also shows the primary porosity of the rock is relatively high at 5-12% (anything over 10% can be considered pretty good).
* The premeability appears to be in the multi-darcy range (I understand there are some gas fields that produce at less than one darcy).

What to expect:

* I expect the flow test should report early next week. Flow rates won�t be high because of the fractured nature of the rock, but the focus is on the quality of the gas and the amount of condensate. With horizontal drilling production levels could be 10-15 times higher than the flow test levels.



ELANG/PLOVER

We know:

* The Elang sands flowed and showed no oil condensate and high CO2. This was exactly as expected from (a) the experience of the Heron-1 well, and (b) the mud logs from Heron-2.
* There is 19m of shale under the Elang sands � this was a surprise and there was no way of knowing it was there.
* The Plover sands beneath are showing gas with no CO2 and wet with hydrocarbons. This is far, far better than had been expected.
* The Plover gas column is currently 164m and there is at least 80m to go to the expected gas/water contact point and has a closure of about 400kmsq.
* The Plover siltstone is believed to be the source of condensate-rich gas to other fields nearby, eg Woodside�s Sunrise field.

We don�t know:

* How well the Plover gas will flow. The first well got clogged with drilling fluids because of the unexpectedly high permeability of the sands.. The sidetrack had to be stopped because the drill bit got stuck when the surrounding Elang shale rock collapsed.

What gives us cause to be optimistic:

* The Elang sands mud logs were spot on; if the Plover logs are similarly accurate then it is a highly valuable resource.
* The good porosity and permeability of the sands suggests gas should readily flow.
* Given the poorer quality Elang sands actually flowed at ~6mcfpd you�d expect the better quality Plover sands to flow at a significantly higher rate.
* The data gathered means a future appraisal well for the Plover can be accurately planned and designed to avoid both the mud weight and collapsing shale problems.

What to expect:

* It will take a few months to analyse the drilling data. I suspect MEO will include a Plover appraisal well in the planned Septmeber drilling programme and it will cost less than Heron-2.

 

[surfingman]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Currently down 69% @ .25 with poor news on the heron 2 well, will be an interesting day for MEO. Sadly a very bad time to release bad news.

 

[Gundini]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Hi All,

It hurt so bad that I doubled up and bought 10k more at 1.18.

It must be some gas there or maybe not????

I feel for those riding this one:

Last 0.190 -0.635 -76.970 %

Takeover target? If they wait a little longer, they will get MEO for free

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Posted ... 13 December 2007:

Hi folks,

MEO ..... despite the current hype, still figuring on some negative time
cycles coming into play, soon:

24-31122007 ..... negative news, brings negative spotlight to MEO

04-07012008 ..... minor

11-18012008 ..... 2 negative cycles ... a BIIIG downmove ... ???

25-28012008 ... minor

29-30012008 ..... 2 negative cycles ... finance-related ... ???

22-26022008 ..... positive aspect to bring first signs of recovery ...

happy days

paul

=====

Hi folks,

MEO ... so, now the truth is apparent and the panic is on, where is
a good entry ..... ???

MEO price, down to 17.5 cents today ... and we would like to see it
trade down about 90% from its 1.60 high, at around 16 cents ... that
seems to be an obvious place for an ambush, by cashed-up traders.

As per time cycles above, there's probably no real hurry to get
set in MEO, anyway ... more conservative traders may choose to
wait for a confirmed low, between now and 22-26022008 .....

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Hey Paul,

I don't know about 16c, but then anythings possible,

For fun I ran my ruler over MEO, heres what I found

Shares = 385m approx

Cash as at last qtrly = $69m + $8m yet to be recieved from SPP (only $10m of $18 was recieved) + $62m placement (done at $1.25) = $139m

Now in the qtrly the company estimated cash outflows of $40m

But that would still leave $100m cash in bank

385m shares = Cash Backing of 26c

I could be wrong but may have a bounce above this level tomorrow or soon

 

[sam76]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Hey Paul,

I don't know about 16c, but then anythings possible,

For fun I ran my ruler over MEO, heres what I found

Shares = 385m approx

Cash as at last qtrly = $69m + $8m yet to be recieved from SPP (only $10m of $18 was recieved) + $62m placement (done at $1.25) = $139m

Now in the qtrly the company estimated cash outflows of $40m

But that would still leave $100m cash in bank

385m shares = Cash Backing of 26c

I could be wrong but may have a bounce above this level tomorrow or soon

Pinched from HC....

found this on another forum - suggests cash backing is 23.5c a share.

anyone care to check their numbers? sounds about right?


::quote::

Had a quick look at cash.
30/9 $68.899m
Sept qtr operating outflow was $10.619 - assume similar for Dec
1m oppies converted at 50c = $0.5m in
Placement $62.5m Assume costs 3%
so 31/12 est $119.405m

Per placement presentation - expenditure for March qtr est to be $35.9m, but that inlcuded $5.8m production testing Plover which now won't happen. So, est $30.1m expenditure this qtr.

Average funds on deposit for March qtr say $104m at 6% = $1.56m interest.

Est funds 31/3 = $90.865m

FPO per last 3B = 385,931,570

Est cash per share at 31/3 = 23.54c/sh


and....

lets put things into perspective.

Its cash backing is a min of 16 cents.

the targets they have which are in the TCFs range as surey worth more than 3.5 cents.

They also have 90% ownership so a farm down is very easy.

will be going up form these levels no doubt. I think low 30s is more than reasonable

 

[surfingman]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Without a double checking of figures, YT compared to a HotCopper post I would be willing to put a carton on YT (no offense meant sam). Cascade Premium thanks.

Was undecided whether to get aboard today but was reluctant until I see the week pan out a little more and possibly wait for a confirmation of the next drilling dates.

 

[rub92me]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

I don't normally buy falling knives, but made an exception today with MEO. Thinking along the same lines as sam and youngtrader. All the bad news is out of the way and an extremely comfortable cash position. I think we'll see at least one decent bounce over the next couple of days once the panic selling stops and reality sinks in. Those 'sophisticated' investors won't be too happy though, so we might see some fall out from that.

 

[sam76]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Without a double checking of figures, YT compared to a HotCopper post I would be willing to put a carton on YT (no offense meant sam). Cascade Premium thanks.

Was undecided whether to get aboard today but was reluctant until I see the week pan out a little more and possibly wait for a confirmation of the next drilling dates.

None taken there Mr. Surfingman

(I'm sure you could come with a better tasting beer as well)

lol

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Hi Sam

I'm happy to use the lower 23.5c cash per share backing,

So unless the projects have a negative value, hard to imagine given the exploration potential they hold then, then it seems the selling may have been overdone,

Then again in these mkts who knows, still was interesting to run the ruler over

 

[sam76]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

sorry mate, was just trying to coroborate your analysis.

I'll make sure to reread my posts before hitting that enter button!

Tolhurst report from this morning......

MEO shares sold off into the mid 20-cent range this morning. We are now back to where we were 18month ago in terms of the share price. However the company has made a massive progress operationally over the same time. Exploration, appraisal � and at times even production drilling are high risk, expensive activities and our High Risk rating is a reflection of that.

That Epenarra failed to flow gas to surface does not mean that the structure will not flow when tested under optimal conditions. That Plover test could not take place at this location does not mean there is no gas in Plover nor that it would not flow. While clearly disappointing � and the share price action very much reflects the disappointment, we suggest that in valuing MEO at under $100m - as current price suggests � the investors are acting emotionally rather than rationally. The company has circa $60m in cash (or about $0.16 a share), with a rig slot and a partner (Petrofac) in place to continue the appraisal drilling. We remind the investors that the Epenarra structure has in excess of 1000 sq km aerial closure � given this size one single well can not answer all the questions.

In face of such a dramatic price collapse, we can only reiterate the facts and the facts are that the company is sitting on two approved gas-to-liquids projects, and on a significant potential resource. It has funding in place for the next appraisal well. While the latest results do not negate the potential of the gas resource, they clearly add time before the resource is confirmed and clearly the company will need to seek more funds for additional drilling (beyond the next well).

 

[doogle]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

sorry mate, was just trying to coroborate your analysis.

I'll make sure to reread my posts before hitting that enter button!

Tolhurst report from this morning......

Kinda makes me feel better, lets hope they are right, thanks for posting that. (Damn this 100 character minimum).

 

[mailman]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Today is going to be an interesting day. DAX down 7% ohhhhhhhhh
September 11 falls- so I will say 16cents will be hit on the meo's today

 

[rub92me]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Today is going to be an interesting day. DAX down 7% ohhhhhhhhh
September 11 falls- so I will say 16cents will be hit on the meo's today

We'll see, but I don't think so. Current market depth doesn't suggest an early sell-off on MEO from these levels. It could dip below 20 cents for a while but expecting this to come back and hold around 20 cents or even up today. My stop is set at 17 cents just in case though

 

[rub92me]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Got very close to the 16 cents. I pulled my stop at 17 cents. Only have 10,000 shares so it won't break the bank : How oversold can it get?

 

[juw177]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

I see a lot of buyers absorbing the sellers at 17-18c today, (and at 18-19c yesterday).

Lets see which side runs out of steam first. The market conditions dont really help the buyers though.

 

[moneymajix]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

No chat about a stock that goes up over 50 percent ??????????????


24.5c, 250 0.085
51.515%


AGM tomorrow.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Hi Sam

I'm happy to use the lower 23.5c cash per share backing,

So unless the projects have a negative value, hard to imagine given the exploration potential they hold then, then it seems the selling may have been overdone,

Then again in these mkts who knows, still was interesting to run the ruler over

Well I grabbed some yesterday and got out today for a nice little profit

I can't believe how hard its bounced and to think I got some at 16.5c on the close yesterday, what a difference 24hrs and a big rate cut makes

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Hi folks,

MEO ... so, now the truth is apparent and the panic is on, where is
a good entry ..... ???

MEO price, down to 17.5 cents today ... and we would like to see it
trade down about 90% from its 1.60 high, at around 16 cents ... that
seems to be an obvious place for an ambush, by cashed-up traders.

As per time cycles above, there's probably no real hurry to get
set in MEO, anyway ... more conservative traders may choose to
wait for a confirmed low, between now and 22-26022008 .....

have a great day

paul

=====

Hi folks,

MEO ..... as expected, traders set their ambush, around 16 cents
..... but for most traders, figure there's still plenty of time to get
set in this one ...

happy days

paul



=====