Market up or down Monday?

[Synergy]

So will the election have any instant impact on the market?

We're lucky in that the DOW rose nearly 1.5% Friday making it almost certainly a positive day - under normal conditions.

Surely any market fall or even a slight gain will relate directly to election results...

 

[Flying Fish]

So will the election have any instant impact on the market?

We're lucky in that the DOW rose nearly 1.5% Friday making it almost certainly a positive day - under normal conditions.

Surely any market fall or even a slight gain will relate directly to election results...

lol are you for real

 

[Nyden]

To be honest, I am worried about that myself - however.

It was largely factored in that a Labor win was to be expected, betting odds certainly reflected that. So, aside from a few die-hard Liberal supporters such as myself D), most folks had accepted defeat weeks ago.

 

[Synergy]

lol are you for real

Was it a silly question??

explain if it was...

 

[chansw]

Corporates get ready for Labor
By Glenda Korporaal
November 24, 2007 08:15am

A LABOR victory today will help infrastructure, construction, renewable energy, childcare, broadband and funds management companies, brokers say.

And even miners have toned down their attacks on the ALP's industrial relations rollback.

Business lobbyists had expressed strident criticism of the early version of the Labor Party's industrial relations policy, including the abolition of Australian Workplace Agreements.

But their attacks eased markedly in recent months after Labor accepted changes, such as the exclusion of award conditions for workers earning more than $100,000 a year.

And Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd is noted for having built better relations with business than Mark Latham, the Labor leader at the 2004 election.

Business had become resigned to the prospect of a Labor government - at least until suggestions of a Coalition comeback in the Newspoll published in The Weekend Australian today.

If he wins today, Mr Rudd is expected to move quickly to appoint former British Airways chief Rod Eddington as head of a council of business advisers in an active consultation process with the corporate community.

Mr Eddington is on a number of key boards including News Corporation, mining giant Rio Tinto and David Coe's Allco Finance. He is a director of the John Swire Group, and is Australian chairman of US investment bank JP Morgan.

Mr Eddington would lead a group of between eight and 12 business leaders providing advice to a Rudd government.

There is speculation that David Morgan, the Westpac chief executive who retires at the end of January and who has been a strong supporter of climate-change policies, could also be co-opted into an advisory role if Mr Rudd were to win.

A former senior federal Treasury official, Dr Morgan is married to ex-Labor government minister, Ros Kelly.

Observers note that the Business Council of Australia and other business lobby groups have had policies calling for improved federal-state relations, infrastructure spending and improving skills education in Australia that could benefit from Mr Rudd's proposals.

Some observers said yesterday that small operators, rather than big business, might be more concerned about the changes in the federal industrial relations laws if Mr Rudd were to win.

"Everyone will be watching the industrial relations developments as we go forward," Argo Investments managing director Rob Patterson said yesterday.

"It's going to take time to see how much more power the union movement can wield.

"But it may be small business which is more concerned at what could happen if they turn back the changes in this area.

"The big boys can look after themselves."

Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Mitch Hooke said yesterday that the mining industry preferred to have the "full range of employment instruments" that were currently available under the Howard government policies.

But he said if Mr Rudd were elected the industry would "work our way through" any changes to industrial relations policies.

Mr Hooke said the ALP's initial industrial relations policy, announced earlier this year, had been a "shambles". But "the announcement they made subsequently was a vast improvement".

Asked to comment on other Labor policies, he said the Minerals Council had been stressing issues such as the importance of sustainable development and using the wealth from the minerals boom to improve Australia's social and physical infrastucture in its last three pre-budget submissions.

Telstra could also benefit from a change of government, given Mr Rudd's support for a national broadband rollout and its poisonous relations with the Howard government.

But some sources see Labor as having no great fondness for Telstra chairman, former National Farmers Federation president Don McGauchie, and its outspoken American chief executive Sol Trujillo.

In a report released this week, Goldman Sachs JB Were said the ALP's broadband policy could be "positive for Telstra".

But it notes that "the critical assumption here is that Telstra chooses to co-operate with the government.

"Clearly this has not been a feature of the company's recent history."

Fitch Ratings said this week that the election of a Labor government was unlikely to lead to any change in the creditworthiness of Australian companies over the medium term: "Both parties have pledged to continue providing conservative economic management. The difference between the parties is minor on many issues."

But it noted that the most substantive differences were in their approach to industrial relations.

Analysts say companies such as Leighton Holdings, Boral, Macquarie Bank, Babcock & Brown, ABC Learning, Origin Energy and AGL could benefit under a Rudd Labor government.

Financial services companies such as AMP and Perpetual as well as the banks could get a lift if Labor moves to boost the compulsory superannuation contributions from the current 9 per cent over time.

A report by Citi analysts Graham Harman and Bruce Ralph says beneficiaries from a Labor win could include infrastructure providers, such as Leighton Holdings, Boral and OneSteel, and firms experienced in public-private infrastructure partnerships, such as Macquarie Bank and Babcock & Brown.

The report suggests that childcare group ABC Learning could benefit from sector-friendly policies, while electrical retailers JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman could gain from measures to help school children buy computers.

Analysts say companies with an interest in renewable energy, such as Babcock & Brown and AGL, could benefit from Labor's higher renewable energy targets.

Corporate sources said yesterday that outgoing Business Council of Australia chairman Michael Chaney had privately expressed concern that the BCA television advertising campaign criticising the ALP's initial industrial relations policy - aired before the election campaign - could rebound on companies with which that he is associated.

The Perth-based Chaney chairs National Australia Bank and energy company Woodside.

Speaking as BCA president, Mr Chaney had said that the changes to Labor's workplace relations policies were an "important first step" in recognising the need for a flexible industrial relations system, for a modern economy.

But he said the "practical result of the ALP's policy ... (would) be a two-tiered workplace relations system that will reduce the scope for flexibility, choice and incentive for the vast majority of employees".

Mr Rudd has also made it clear he is a strong supporter of boosting Australia's role as an international fund manager and has promised to cut the withholding tax on foreigners investing in Australia.

While there does not appear to be any major inquiry into the financial system in train, indications are that Mr Rudd and would-be treasurer Wayne Swan would look at other changes that could make the financial system more efficient.

But speculation that a Rudd government may allow an end to the federal Government's four pillars policy, which prevents a merger between the four major banks, has evaporated.

"Despite some recent rumblings by industry players on the subject, we do not expect a chance to the four pillars policy," the Citi report says.

 

[nizar]

Through the roof in my opinion.

 

[vishalt]

The futures are up 1.5%, BHP and Rio steamed upwards by 5%, of course its going to be up..

 

[Nyden]

I guess if Labor helps construction - could help the Australian sentiment for commods

I'm trying to think positive here! But, yes - market should have a good day.

 

[chewy]

UP for sure!

As if the market will care who won anyway - they are 95% the same.

 

[greggy]

So will the election have any instant impact on the market?

We're lucky in that the DOW rose nearly 1.5% Friday making it almost certainly a positive day - under normal conditions.

Surely any market fall or even a slight gain will relate directly to election results...

IMO Monday will be a good day for the market. The Dow did extremely well on Friday as did the gold price.
The election result was clear cut. Mr Rudd says he's a fiscal conservative. If he governs by the way he's been preaching then I reckon we don't have much to worry about it.

 

[skint]

The change of government will have virtually no effect on the markets IMO. Small movements, say in renewables may occur, but that's about it. My guess is that the markets will get a bit of a lift from the jump in Wall st. on Friday, but perhaps this will be tempered by the ongoing concerns in the US that are still unfolding. The rocky ride ahead has little to do with who's in power locally.

 

[Aussiejeff]

In his departing speech, ex-PM John Howard stated himself that after the election debacle, he was convinced that "even better times lie ahead for Australia". My guess is that he thinks Labor CAN do a half decent job at the helm after all - history shows it will be very hard for the Liberals to get back in in a mere 3 years. Only been done once before. So he is talking about 6 years of Labor governance in all probability. JH is no fool.

So, nice one, Johnny. Seriously, well spoken. At least he was humble enough to admit the sky might not fall after all and made some attempt to mend a bridge or two....

I'll go along with the market up on Monday scenario....

AJ

 

[vishalt]

Yes well done to John Howard, he did an exceptional job in taking our country forward but if he didn't want to stay for the full term there's no point.

With the election over and BHP & Rio up almost 7% in London I'm punting on the market to smash up over a 100 points.

Hopefully this correction is over.