Market Dynamics 2007
- Thread starter Frank D
- Start date
Short term I’m looking for a 2-day stall/rotation, this lines up with an UP bias on Thursday following my systems. However, between now and Thursday the market can be anywhere, if it is still trading above the 3-month highs on Thursday then I favour a move to 6310, that won’t the case if by Thursday we are another 100 points lower and breaking the 3-day lows.
I never know how far any day will move. If I’m in a trade I ‘hope’ I don’t get stopped out and I ‘hope’ it reaches my exit zones. Everything in the market is random, there are no guarantees, other than following strict trading rules.
With all trends price has a natural flow that rotates between central zones and extends onward as Time moves forward. This relationship forms levels in the market that hinders Price from moving in straight lines, it moves between support and resistance. As Time moves forward support and resistance moves along with it. Knowing where support and resistance zones lie is a critical cog in the wheel of trading, because it’s these levels that become part of a trading plan.
Support and resistance isn’t some static level in the market that never moves (as shown in the above chart) Support and resistance is dynamic, it constantly moves with the start of each new timeframe. Identifying and clearly defining support and resistance becomes part of my risk/reward strategy. Identifying good risk/reward trades does not guarantee success; however not identifying good risk/reward trades almost always guarantees failure.
Yesterday’s exits zones are an example and hopefully today’s exits zones (6193) are an example. But in reality I never know any outcome until after the event, so I don’t know if 6310 will reach, but by Thursday I should have a better idea.
This also reminds me of April 2006 when the DOW rallied into April highs before reversing, we are still 100 points short of those highs, whilst the ES has hit and stalled at the April highs yesterday.
Frank Dilernia
I never know how far any day will move. If I’m in a trade I ‘hope’ I don’t get stopped out and I ‘hope’ it reaches my exit zones. Everything in the market is random, there are no guarantees, other than following strict trading rules.
With all trends price has a natural flow that rotates between central zones and extends onward as Time moves forward. This relationship forms levels in the market that hinders Price from moving in straight lines, it moves between support and resistance. As Time moves forward support and resistance moves along with it. Knowing where support and resistance zones lie is a critical cog in the wheel of trading, because it’s these levels that become part of a trading plan.
Support and resistance isn’t some static level in the market that never moves (as shown in the above chart) Support and resistance is dynamic, it constantly moves with the start of each new timeframe. Identifying and clearly defining support and resistance becomes part of my risk/reward strategy. Identifying good risk/reward trades does not guarantee success; however not identifying good risk/reward trades almost always guarantees failure.
Yesterday’s exits zones are an example and hopefully today’s exits zones (6193) are an example. But in reality I never know any outcome until after the event, so I don’t know if 6310 will reach, but by Thursday I should have a better idea.
This also reminds me of April 2006 when the DOW rallied into April highs before reversing, we are still 100 points short of those highs, whilst the ES has hit and stalled at the April highs yesterday.
Frank Dilernia
DOW has rallied to the same dynamic spot as in 2006.
Back then the market sold off heavily once it was confirmed
with the break of the 3-day lows, and the same applies in 2007.
The first confirming change of short-term trend is the break of
the 3-day lows.
After that the outcome is random, but I’m looking for a
2-week rotation back based on the 3-week cycles. (as per AMT report)
2nd sign of any change of trend will be price trading below the
3-week 50% levels, as of next week they are 12684.
The overall Trend remains strong whilst above the 3-month
50% levels, so any reversal needs to be confirmed with certain
levels in the market, starting with....
#1 3-day lows
#2 then precedding 3-weekly 50% level
#3 then preceeding 3-monthly 50% level
ONLY when there is a break and trading below the 3-month 50%
level is there an expectation of a 2 month wave into lower dynamics.
We already had this happen in Feb-March (down) then the rally (March-April)
Nothing is confirmed until certain criteria is meet
Frank Dilernia
Back then the market sold off heavily once it was confirmed
with the break of the 3-day lows, and the same applies in 2007.
The first confirming change of short-term trend is the break of
the 3-day lows.
After that the outcome is random, but I’m looking for a
2-week rotation back based on the 3-week cycles. (as per AMT report)
2nd sign of any change of trend will be price trading below the
3-week 50% levels, as of next week they are 12684.
The overall Trend remains strong whilst above the 3-month
50% levels, so any reversal needs to be confirmed with certain
levels in the market, starting with....
#1 3-day lows
#2 then precedding 3-weekly 50% level
#3 then preceeding 3-monthly 50% level
ONLY when there is a break and trading below the 3-month 50%
level is there an expectation of a 2 month wave into lower dynamics.
We already had this happen in Feb-March (down) then the rally (March-April)
Nothing is confirmed until certain criteria is meet
Frank Dilernia
Market has rallied towards the 3-week highs (day session 6301,
24-hour session 6310)
The Daily system has now been long for 3 days and will go
short tomorrow on open.
Yesterday the daily and Range bar systems were conflicting but
a trade was possible because the down arrow on the daily
system matched the range bar shorts, however today there were
no trades.
Ideally I would have liked the up move to happen from lower
prices on Wednesday/Thursday and capture the move towards the
3-week highs, however that didn't play out.
Tomorrow i'll be back into Short trading.
Frank Dilernia
Note: sometimes you'll see a slight variation in AMT model
levels, but that will depend on whether i'm showing 24hour or
day session only charts.
24 hour charts normally have greater levels because the
ranges within 24-hour markets are greater than day only.
24-hour session 6310)
The Daily system has now been long for 3 days and will go
short tomorrow on open.
Yesterday the daily and Range bar systems were conflicting but
a trade was possible because the down arrow on the daily
system matched the range bar shorts, however today there were
no trades.
Ideally I would have liked the up move to happen from lower
prices on Wednesday/Thursday and capture the move towards the
3-week highs, however that didn't play out.
Tomorrow i'll be back into Short trading.
Frank Dilernia
Note: sometimes you'll see a slight variation in AMT model
levels, but that will depend on whether i'm showing 24hour or
day session only charts.
24 hour charts normally have greater levels because the
ranges within 24-hour markets are greater than day only.
With the lower open on SPI today, the daily systems remain long, the
range bar systems will match with longs around the mid 6230's today.
I'll be trading longs.
AMT model: expectation is that the April highs continue to play
some supporting role at this stage.
.................................................. SPI 24-hour
Past two days have consolidated and rotated, and with this lower open
on Thursday this lines up with my previous view of trading longs
from Thursday towards the 3-week highs, and that's how i'll be treating
the market today.
Short term cycle remains a BUY whilst trading above the 3-day lows (6191)
In conclusion: I I have been around for a long time, many here
are familiar with the AMT model, others are probably looking at this for
the first time.
My work is based on breaking up the timeframes in 3 periods starting from
the higher timeframes whilst trading the shorter timeframes. I hope this
past week clears a few things up with traders, as I have been getting a
few messages of late regarding the AMT model.
Even though I think the AMT model is one of the most robust non-subjective
trading methodologies discussed, I still need to trade using systems
that confirms any trade entry; when to Long, short, stay out or hold
equites for a number of months.
It is fine to call market tops and market bottoms and where the market
is likely to go, but you still need verification on when to trade and
what direction, not every trade is a winner but hopefully my odds
are stacked in my favour each time I trade.
I don’t often post in forums that much anymore and I’ll take a break from
this thread, but I hope this has helped some traders with a
different perspective on technical analysis and trading.
Frank Dilernia
range bar systems will match with longs around the mid 6230's today.
I'll be trading longs.
AMT model: expectation is that the April highs continue to play
some supporting role at this stage.
.................................................. SPI 24-hour
Past two days have consolidated and rotated, and with this lower open
on Thursday this lines up with my previous view of trading longs
from Thursday towards the 3-week highs, and that's how i'll be treating
the market today.
Short term cycle remains a BUY whilst trading above the 3-day lows (6191)
In conclusion: I I have been around for a long time, many here
are familiar with the AMT model, others are probably looking at this for
the first time.
My work is based on breaking up the timeframes in 3 periods starting from
the higher timeframes whilst trading the shorter timeframes. I hope this
past week clears a few things up with traders, as I have been getting a
few messages of late regarding the AMT model.
Even though I think the AMT model is one of the most robust non-subjective
trading methodologies discussed, I still need to trade using systems
that confirms any trade entry; when to Long, short, stay out or hold
equites for a number of months.
It is fine to call market tops and market bottoms and where the market
is likely to go, but you still need verification on when to trade and
what direction, not every trade is a winner but hopefully my odds
are stacked in my favour each time I trade.
I don’t often post in forums that much anymore and I’ll take a break from
this thread, but I hope this has helped some traders with a
different perspective on technical analysis and trading.
Frank Dilernia
professor_frink
Moderator
- Joined
- 16 February 2006
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- 5
sorry to see you go Frank, hope the break isn't a permanent one. It's been interesting reading your analysis
Cheers
Cheers
UPdate: todays trade
Today's entry 6240 Stops placed 6210 (purple arrow)
A good sign would have seen the support zone around 6229 hold.
Regardless, Stops remain in place, the only time I would move stops is
when there is a 23 point upswing from lows, I then move stops to 1
tick below lows, because on most occassions if it takes out the lows
after the upswing it will continue lower.
Late system short trigger yesterday after I posted the early chart
@16:13
current system results in points 1=$25AUD
Add 90 points to the loss if stopped out @6210 (-$2250)
Same will apply if there is a 23 point upswing from any low today,
stops moved in below lows 1 tick.
Frank Dilernia
Today's entry 6240 Stops placed 6210 (purple arrow)
A good sign would have seen the support zone around 6229 hold.
Regardless, Stops remain in place, the only time I would move stops is
when there is a 23 point upswing from lows, I then move stops to 1
tick below lows, because on most occassions if it takes out the lows
after the upswing it will continue lower.
Late system short trigger yesterday after I posted the early chart
@16:13
current system results in points 1=$25AUD
Add 90 points to the loss if stopped out @6210 (-$2250)
Same will apply if there is a 23 point upswing from any low today,
stops moved in below lows 1 tick.
Frank Dilernia
Bronte
Trading The SPI for 20+ years
- Joined
- 30 July 2005
- Posts
- 1,525
- Reactions
- 1
Bronte,
What have you shown me? All you have shown is a chart going down,
it means nothing if you don’t have a plan.
What’s the plan? Where are the trades? What’s the analysis? What are
you going to do?
Trading is about meeting criteria when opportunities present themselves.
A simple change in circumstances from Wednesday’s highs had me a
Seller on Thursday at a higher open like the 3 previous ‘selling’
days, and I would had a great day today on the way down.
Circumstances changed on a lower open today and I traded the plan and was stopped out.
Historically my systems since 1999 run around 70%. I have been lucky
that over the past few years they are pushing the top end between 81-85%.
I know when to stop trading these systems and switch into
volatility systems below the 3-month 50% levels, and switch back when
they are above. I think we have all been blessed with Bull markets over
the years, and if this type of trading continues (trends above
3-month dynamic 50% levels) I will continue to be blessed.
As I’ve mentioned in this thread previously….
The way I trade, (swing and momentum futures) I’ll miss every major move in the market because I have certain exit criteria, I’ll never hold for a 100 point move on the market but I’ll know over the next few days as the market rotates I’ll make up for any miss trending period.
Today is just another one of days that I have missed on numerous
occasions, and it won’t be the last, tomorrow is just another day.
AMT model:
As per DOW analysis.....
SPI testing the 3-day lows @ 6191 (daily chart above) first sign is
closure below today, 2nd confirmation is the break of the 3-week 50%
levels next week.
A weak market will continue lower the rest of this week and
open below the 3-week dynamic 50% levels next week, this will normally
be confirmed with the DOW doing the same thing. (3-day break and
moving lower)
My systems however will remain long on Friday, and probably won’t
go short until Monday, I’m hoping that I don’t miss a major move down
and there is an up day tomorrow that matches higher prices on Monday.
Frank Dilernia
What have you shown me? All you have shown is a chart going down,
it means nothing if you don’t have a plan.
What’s the plan? Where are the trades? What’s the analysis? What are
you going to do?
Trading is about meeting criteria when opportunities present themselves.
A simple change in circumstances from Wednesday’s highs had me a
Seller on Thursday at a higher open like the 3 previous ‘selling’
days, and I would had a great day today on the way down.
Circumstances changed on a lower open today and I traded the plan and was stopped out.
Historically my systems since 1999 run around 70%. I have been lucky
that over the past few years they are pushing the top end between 81-85%.
I know when to stop trading these systems and switch into
volatility systems below the 3-month 50% levels, and switch back when
they are above. I think we have all been blessed with Bull markets over
the years, and if this type of trading continues (trends above
3-month dynamic 50% levels) I will continue to be blessed.
As I’ve mentioned in this thread previously….
The way I trade, (swing and momentum futures) I’ll miss every major move in the market because I have certain exit criteria, I’ll never hold for a 100 point move on the market but I’ll know over the next few days as the market rotates I’ll make up for any miss trending period.
Today is just another one of days that I have missed on numerous
occasions, and it won’t be the last, tomorrow is just another day.
AMT model:
As per DOW analysis.....
SPI testing the 3-day lows @ 6191 (daily chart above) first sign is
closure below today, 2nd confirmation is the break of the 3-week 50%
levels next week.
A weak market will continue lower the rest of this week and
open below the 3-week dynamic 50% levels next week, this will normally
be confirmed with the DOW doing the same thing. (3-day break and
moving lower)
My systems however will remain long on Friday, and probably won’t
go short until Monday, I’m hoping that I don’t miss a major move down
and there is an up day tomorrow that matches higher prices on Monday.
Frank Dilernia
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
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Frank
Is this analysis common to all instruments traded and in all timeframes?
Is that book of yours finished?
What software are you using for the plots?
Is it available for public use?
Is this analysis common to all instruments traded and in all timeframes?
Is that book of yours finished?
What software are you using for the plots?
Is it available for public use?
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
- Joined
- 2 February 2007
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- 2
Your off topic.:topic
This section is for Market Dynamics charts and ATM and any other thing that goes with it.
Your chart belongs in Trading the SPI non Gann.
I also agree with Frank, what are you trying to tell us with that chart?
sorry to butt but in depends on your view I guess IT - the chart is potentially off topic but it adds a different perspective to Franks, his being quite complex and showing a lot of info which is potentially confusing. B's just shows good clean price action around gaps & 6,300 / 6,200 levels, with an impulsive move down. no labels, no levels, just the action. in that respect you could take what you want out of it. I'm sure we could all see different ways to trade that chart - I can think of a few when I look at it
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
- Joined
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- 2
take your point but this is a topic about ATM and Market dynamics.
it is just like me going in the SPI gann and posting a fundamental break down of spi market by economics what does it have to do with using Gann on the SPI?
i did not mean to sound so harsh, but in a topic like this i think it should stay focused on the analysis being presented by Frank
peace man
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,417
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- 6,356
Frank's shown APPLICATION.
Bronte's shown a chart.
VAST difference.
Bronte's shown a chart.
VAST difference.
Below are two charts of the DOW showing the AMT model hitting April
highs and on the right showing the DOW moving in 100 points bars.
Each bar is 100 points, and each reversal occured after a 100 point
reversal, and this is happening right at this moment.
Today has seen the SPI break the 3-day lows, this is the first sign
that markets are topping out, it would need to follow on the DOW
and continue below the 3-week 50% levels next week
The SPI systems will remain LONG on open on Friday and probably won't
go short until Monday, this will hopefully line up with shorts after a
swing upwards after the 3-day change of cycle. Now that will only happen
if the DOW moves upwards today.
However when we look at the DOW each time it reversed 100 points
it moved lower, this then favours the market heading lower, with the
first confirmation and the break of the 3-day lows. Last major sell-off occured
when there was a monthly divergence at the highs, this time it's
not happening.
If the DOW heads up tonight, then the swing target will be 100 points up
@ 12866, after swing upwards you would need to see the market
heading lower the next day.
Basically today, and or if it swings upwards tomorrow is critical on any
down move.
I've taken shorts on the DOW @12812, I won't be trading shorts at this stage on the SPI, shorts will suit from higher prices on Monday, but I'd hate to think of missing any down move if it eventuates on the DOW today.
First step would need to see a follow through and break the 3-day
lows followed by the 3-week 50% levels next week
____________________________________________________
Tech,
This AMT model is a generic model on all markets and stocks regardless
of what you trade.
If you ever want a good entry on a stock position or define the trend of
the stock using dynamic supports, use the past 3 quarters and use
H+C+L/3 and use this level as your support. Each new quarter will
move therefore support moves.
Because it’s based on 3–quarterly timeframes your positions should be held
6-9 months exit and repeat the process, so your focus is on the beginning
of quarterly timeframes.
Whilst stocks are trading below these levels it’s probably best to
concentrate on stocks above (trading longs)
In my opinion it’s best to scan for stocks coming down into those
levels, finding support and then re-entering as it breaks the 3-day highs
once again.
That is why I like the market to show a bit more volatility more often
than just trend upwards, it allows price to move into support zones and
then you just BUY and hold stocks, whilst concentrating on futures for
short term rewards to pay for living expenses.
Frank Dilernia
highs and on the right showing the DOW moving in 100 points bars.
Each bar is 100 points, and each reversal occured after a 100 point
reversal, and this is happening right at this moment.
Today has seen the SPI break the 3-day lows, this is the first sign
that markets are topping out, it would need to follow on the DOW
and continue below the 3-week 50% levels next week
The SPI systems will remain LONG on open on Friday and probably won't
go short until Monday, this will hopefully line up with shorts after a
swing upwards after the 3-day change of cycle. Now that will only happen
if the DOW moves upwards today.
However when we look at the DOW each time it reversed 100 points
it moved lower, this then favours the market heading lower, with the
first confirmation and the break of the 3-day lows. Last major sell-off occured
when there was a monthly divergence at the highs, this time it's
not happening.
If the DOW heads up tonight, then the swing target will be 100 points up
@ 12866, after swing upwards you would need to see the market
heading lower the next day.
Basically today, and or if it swings upwards tomorrow is critical on any
down move.
I've taken shorts on the DOW @12812, I won't be trading shorts at this stage on the SPI, shorts will suit from higher prices on Monday, but I'd hate to think of missing any down move if it eventuates on the DOW today.
First step would need to see a follow through and break the 3-day
lows followed by the 3-week 50% levels next week
____________________________________________________
Tech,
This AMT model is a generic model on all markets and stocks regardless
of what you trade.
If you ever want a good entry on a stock position or define the trend of
the stock using dynamic supports, use the past 3 quarters and use
H+C+L/3 and use this level as your support. Each new quarter will
move therefore support moves.
Because it’s based on 3–quarterly timeframes your positions should be held
6-9 months exit and repeat the process, so your focus is on the beginning
of quarterly timeframes.
Whilst stocks are trading below these levels it’s probably best to
concentrate on stocks above (trading longs)
In my opinion it’s best to scan for stocks coming down into those
levels, finding support and then re-entering as it breaks the 3-day highs
once again.
That is why I like the market to show a bit more volatility more often
than just trend upwards, it allows price to move into support zones and
then you just BUY and hold stocks, whilst concentrating on futures for
short term rewards to pay for living expenses.
Frank Dilernia
Tech,
this is an example of 3-quarterly dynamics.
I posted the below analysis on SEN in reefcap and here
SEN
19th Feb 2007
What traders need to see is...
"The 3-week highs break again, and then for price to
move back above the forward projected
3-quarterly 50% levels From 1st April March 2007.
Expectation is then to move towards the highs in the
following quarter from July-September 2007 (2-3 month rally)
The critical technical level using the AMT model is the
next quarterly dynamic 50% level starting in April 2007.
So basically I didn't want to know about SEN for another 6 weeks until
the first of April 2007
What’s happened…
Early April we have the first step, the break and weekly close
above the 3-week highs @ 26cents.
The next step on any bullish move is to see price trading above the
50% level of 30 cents, this dynamic 50% level has clearly defined
the strength of the trend within each timeframe.
A technical expectation would then see price move back towards
the highs where it hits resistance levels between 40-47 cents,
‘if’ it continues upwards.
A bullish price pattern would see a confirmed ‘monthly close’
above 47 cents, with a 6-month wave pattern extension towards
.63 cents.
I would use the trailing 3-week lows as money management
techniques, currently .21cents.
#1 Start of April and Timeframe
#2 First confirmation of 3-week break @ 26 cents
#3 Price needs to break .30cents and then expectation this 50% level becomes a support zone. Major critical level and technical break
#4 Price needs close above .40 cents at the end of a monthly timeframe.
#5 Major resistance based on the past 3 quarterly timeframes @47
#6 Break of #5 and the wave pattern target is .63 cents over the course of the next 3-6 months.
#1 Trailing stop 3-week lows @ 21 cents.
Note: this is a purely speculative technical view using
the AMT model, there is no guarantee that any further
advancement will take place or you will profit trading this stock.
We all know what has happened, SEN didn;t follow through and can easily
go down to the next level over the next 3-months to .14cents. I don't
want to know about SEN for another 3 months whilst 'it's trading below
30 cents.
This price action on SEN is easily duplicated on a number of
stocks, ideal for small cap stocks and using the Quarterly
and Monthly timeframes as trading set-ups. The premise of the AMT
model isn't on price anaylsis, as most T/A is based on, it's based on Time
analysis with price follow through.
If you ever want to take margin positions on the large Caps especially
Banks, imo it's best to wait until they test those levels as support and
BUY and hold for 9-12 months and just keep repeating the process year
in year out, whilst at the same time just accumualting long term holdings
that you never sell.
Remember this one....
AMP
02-07-2005 04:41 PM
“we are only 10 cents
away from being back above the 50% level $6.64 and
the secondary trend all of a sudden becomes
our friend once again…I would like to see it move back above the
50% level 6.64 and break the 3-week highs.”
And on the 21st of July we can see this happening, a move back
above the secondary cycle 50% level, a break of the 3-week highs
and 6.64 becomes support. Because the market moves in 3-month
waves the target within this quarter is $7.60.
Of course the movement is not always a foregone conclusion
towards the extreme but it is only a model of expectation based
on market dynamics
And when we follow the movement of price into the next
secondary cycle the same model of market dynamics comes into
play, the 50% level defines the strength of the trend whilst we
have a model of expectation that price will follow a similar
path towards the dynamic highs within this quarter as show…$8.22
The shift in Time has dynamically moved the support of $6.64 in
the last 3 months to $7.08 in this quarter and simply defines
the strenght of the trend in this quarter.
It is the movement of waves of Time that is the main component
of the market and not waves of price that many believe.
So any cross like show above you have an expectation that the minimum
wave will be based on 2-months and extented into two Quarters.
Frank Dilernia.
AMT Market Dynamic Model © Frank Dilernia
this is an example of 3-quarterly dynamics.
I posted the below analysis on SEN in reefcap and here
SEN
19th Feb 2007
What traders need to see is...
"The 3-week highs break again, and then for price to
move back above the forward projected
3-quarterly 50% levels From 1st April March 2007.
Expectation is then to move towards the highs in the
following quarter from July-September 2007 (2-3 month rally)
The critical technical level using the AMT model is the
next quarterly dynamic 50% level starting in April 2007.
So basically I didn't want to know about SEN for another 6 weeks until
the first of April 2007
What’s happened…
Early April we have the first step, the break and weekly close
above the 3-week highs @ 26cents.
The next step on any bullish move is to see price trading above the
50% level of 30 cents, this dynamic 50% level has clearly defined
the strength of the trend within each timeframe.
A technical expectation would then see price move back towards
the highs where it hits resistance levels between 40-47 cents,
‘if’ it continues upwards.
A bullish price pattern would see a confirmed ‘monthly close’
above 47 cents, with a 6-month wave pattern extension towards
.63 cents.
I would use the trailing 3-week lows as money management
techniques, currently .21cents.
#1 Start of April and Timeframe
#2 First confirmation of 3-week break @ 26 cents
#3 Price needs to break .30cents and then expectation this 50% level becomes a support zone. Major critical level and technical break
#4 Price needs close above .40 cents at the end of a monthly timeframe.
#5 Major resistance based on the past 3 quarterly timeframes @47
#6 Break of #5 and the wave pattern target is .63 cents over the course of the next 3-6 months.
#1 Trailing stop 3-week lows @ 21 cents.
Note: this is a purely speculative technical view using
the AMT model, there is no guarantee that any further
advancement will take place or you will profit trading this stock.
We all know what has happened, SEN didn;t follow through and can easily
go down to the next level over the next 3-months to .14cents. I don't
want to know about SEN for another 3 months whilst 'it's trading below
30 cents.
This price action on SEN is easily duplicated on a number of
stocks, ideal for small cap stocks and using the Quarterly
and Monthly timeframes as trading set-ups. The premise of the AMT
model isn't on price anaylsis, as most T/A is based on, it's based on Time
analysis with price follow through.
If you ever want to take margin positions on the large Caps especially
Banks, imo it's best to wait until they test those levels as support and
BUY and hold for 9-12 months and just keep repeating the process year
in year out, whilst at the same time just accumualting long term holdings
that you never sell.
Remember this one....
AMP
02-07-2005 04:41 PM
“we are only 10 cents
away from being back above the 50% level $6.64 and
the secondary trend all of a sudden becomes
our friend once again…I would like to see it move back above the
50% level 6.64 and break the 3-week highs.”
And on the 21st of July we can see this happening, a move back
above the secondary cycle 50% level, a break of the 3-week highs
and 6.64 becomes support. Because the market moves in 3-month
waves the target within this quarter is $7.60.
Of course the movement is not always a foregone conclusion
towards the extreme but it is only a model of expectation based
on market dynamics
And when we follow the movement of price into the next
secondary cycle the same model of market dynamics comes into
play, the 50% level defines the strength of the trend whilst we
have a model of expectation that price will follow a similar
path towards the dynamic highs within this quarter as show…$8.22
The shift in Time has dynamically moved the support of $6.64 in
the last 3 months to $7.08 in this quarter and simply defines
the strenght of the trend in this quarter.
It is the movement of waves of Time that is the main component
of the market and not waves of price that many believe.
So any cross like show above you have an expectation that the minimum
wave will be based on 2-months and extented into two Quarters.
Frank Dilernia.
AMT Market Dynamic Model © Frank Dilernia
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
- Joined
- 2 February 2007
- Posts
- 2,233
- Reactions
- 2
Tech,
this is an example of 3-quarterly dynamics.
I posted the below analysis on SEN in reefcap and here
SEN
19th Feb 2007
What traders need to see is...
"The 3-week highs break again, and then for price to
move back above the forward projected
3-quarterly 50% levels From 1st April March 2007.
Expectation is then to move towards the highs in the
following quarter from July-September 2007 (2-3 month rally)
The critical technical level using the AMT model is the
next quarterly dynamic 50% level starting in April 2007.
So basically I didn't want to know about SEN for another 6 weeks until
the first of April 2007
What’s happened…
Early April we have the first step, the break and weekly close
above the 3-week highs @ 26cents.
The next step on any bullish move is to see price trading above the
50% level of 30 cents, this dynamic 50% level has clearly defined
the strength of the trend within each timeframe.
A technical expectation would then see price move back towards
the highs where it hits resistance levels between 40-47 cents,
‘if’ it continues upwards.
A bullish price pattern would see a confirmed ‘monthly close’
above 47 cents, with a 6-month wave pattern extension towards
.63 cents.
I would use the trailing 3-week lows as money management
techniques, currently .21cents.
#1 Start of April and Timeframe
#2 First confirmation of 3-week break @ 26 cents
#3 Price needs to break .30cents and then expectation this 50% level becomes a support zone. Major critical level and technical break
#4 Price needs close above .40 cents at the end of a monthly timeframe.
#5 Major resistance based on the past 3 quarterly timeframes @47
#6 Break of #5 and the wave pattern target is .63 cents over the course of the next 3-6 months.
#1 Trailing stop 3-week lows @ 21 cents.
Note: this is a purely speculative technical view using
the AMT model, there is no guarantee that any further
advancement will take place or you will profit trading this stock.
We all know what has happened, SEN didn;t follow through and can easily
go down to the next level over the next 3-months to .14cents. I don't
want to know about SEN for another 3 months whilst 'it's trading below
30 cents.
This price action on SEN is easily duplicated on a number of
stocks, ideal for small cap stocks and using the Quarterly
and Monthly timeframes as trading set-ups. The premise of the AMT
model isn't on price anaylsis, as most T/A is based on, it's based on Time
analysis with price follow through.
If you ever want to take margin positions on the large Caps especially
Banks, imo it's best to wait until they test those levels as support and
BUY and hold for 9-12 months and just keep repeating the process year
in year out, whilst at the same time just accumualting long term holdings
that you never sell.
Remember this one....
AMP
02-07-2005 04:41 PM
“we are only 10 cents
away from being back above the 50% level $6.64 and
the secondary trend all of a sudden becomes
our friend once again…I would like to see it move back above the
50% level 6.64 and break the 3-week highs.”
And on the 21st of July we can see this happening, a move back
above the secondary cycle 50% level, a break of the 3-week highs
and 6.64 becomes support. Because the market moves in 3-month
waves the target within this quarter is $7.60.
Of course the movement is not always a foregone conclusion
towards the extreme but it is only a model of expectation based
on market dynamics
And when we follow the movement of price into the next
secondary cycle the same model of market dynamics comes into
play, the 50% level defines the strength of the trend whilst we
have a model of expectation that price will follow a similar
path towards the dynamic highs within this quarter as show…$8.22
The shift in Time has dynamically moved the support of $6.64 in
the last 3 months to $7.08 in this quarter and simply defines
the strenght of the trend in this quarter.
It is the movement of waves of Time that is the main component
of the market and not waves of price that many believe.
So any cross like show above you have an expectation that the minimum
wave will be based on 2-months and extented into two Quarters.
Frank Dilernia.
AMT Market Dynamic Model © Frank Dilernia
Frank
As usual I am speechless at what I am reading and seeing on your charts.
I am very slowly starting to see what your communicating though your charts.
Thanks for your posts.
