LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[purple]

I was hovering around waiting for a good re-entry opportunity (got stopped out by the volatility last 2 weeks).

I'll wait for the 4th May to pass, then hopefully the next few days will see the sp slow its slide, then i'm buying in big time. I think the few days after the 4th of May will be a great buying opportunity as LYC will be temporarily and massively undervalued for the 40% ultra high grade RE they have.

 

[purple]

from my correspondence with LYC, their expansion into a brown-field piece of land is not so much cause for worry.

I was fearing a worser scenario, involving extensive rehab of the brown-field land, and all sorts of overhead expenses in insurances against strange contamination etc etc.

LYC's plant is on a greenfield land, and the extension is on brownfield. but Matthew has said that there is no rehab needed. great. no big expenses there.

 

[purple]

customers from across Europe, Japan and US are alerady lining up to buy LYC's future production!!

Matt advised that LYC's interests would be to be fully leveraged to the rise in the RE prices...great stuff! i guess hedging the price was at a time when RIO had to fix their uranium prices, but are now probably regretting it as new producers like PDN are fully leveraged to rising prices.

 

[Kieran]

I was hovering around waiting for a good re-entry opportunity (got stopped out by the volatility last 2 weeks).

I'll wait for the 4th May to pass, then hopefully the next few days will see the sp slow its slide, then i'm buying in big time. I think the few days after the 4th of May will be a great buying opportunity as LYC will be temporarily and massively undervalued for the 40% ultra high grade RE they have.

What's the big deal about 4th May, why is it important?

I seem to have bought in at the wrong time ($1.05) but like the rest of you in this thread, I think having the worlds biggest RE deposit will pay off in the long run. I'm not particularly worried that I'm currently ~13% down right now since I have a miniscule holding in the company - Lynas is actually the first shares I've bought.

Far from throwing good money after bad, I'd probably buy some more if they dropped to a bargain price, which would be what, in your opinions?

 

[ta2693]

What's the big deal about 4th May, why is it important?

I seem to have bought in at the wrong time ($1.05) but like the rest of you in this thread, I think having the worlds biggest RE deposit will pay off in the long run. I'm not particularly worried that I'm currently ~13% down right now since I have a miniscule holding in the company - Lynas is actually the first shares I've bought.

Far from throwing good money after bad, I'd probably buy some more if they dropped to a bargain price, which would be what, in your opinions?

Damn right, with this one you got beginner's luck. I hold some of it. I am not worried about it at all and going to top up if it can drop to 80c.

 

[purple]

What's the big deal about 4th May, why is it important?

The 4th of May is when the convertible notes are converted and 87.5 million new shares are added into the total number of shares on issue.

Exercising these notes might create a lot of selling among those who do not wish to hold LYC.

What I'm not sure about is how the existing share price will be diluted to absorb the new shares.

 

[Kieran]

Cripes, does this often happen, millions of new shares introduced, de-valuing existing shareholders investments? Is it likely to happen again or aren't you able to predict this?

80c sounds like a good time to drop some more money in, I certainly wont be mentioning it to my share-mentor as he'd be completely about spending more money in a speculative non-profit turning decreasing share price company, but it makes sense to me

 

[purple]

it wouldn't happen much in a stock's lifetime, but when it does it is a bit of a drag to watch the share price dip a bit.

but we need to understand that LYC had to do all these fund raising stuff, selling these convertible notes as it started out as a mining junior in very unknown material (RE).

i wouldn't worry too much, because in my opinion I'm expecting LYC to have a strong uptrend after this correction.

look at their credentials :
- their mine is the highest grade in the world - 40% RE
- apart from China (who control output), there is absolutely no competition anywhere else in the world in 2008,2009
- the RE will be sold at unhedged prices, leveraged to the max on a rapidly rising RE price
- 10 years tax free! : to you ATO
- mining commences Apr-June qtr 2007

I could go on and on...the list is endless.

 

[Kimosabi]

It seems that everytime this stock is set to go blue sky, something else happens to stop it from happening

 

[purple]

Is it likely to happen again or aren't you able to predict this?

oops, sorry, didn't answer your question. i'll check the financial statements later, gotta go have dinner now(it's 6pm now in this desert country)...

but from what i gather from the 1 May 2007 announcement :

" ...the company is in a very strong financial position with no debt and approximately $65 million in cash. " Nick Curtis, Chairman

from that I think that they have no more outstanding convertible notes...

I'll try to pore through the financial statements later (unless someone else can do it faster)

 

[purple]

just got off an email from Matthew James of LYC, here is an excerpt vebatim :

"All the con notes are being converted to shares, the company will not
have any debt after this is converted tomorrow."

phew! no more of these con notes issues to contend with, at least the share price will be unthethered from tomorrow...

My thoughts are that LYC should go quite well into their production without having to have another fund raising...they've got the plant coming up in a couple of months, the confirmed pounds in the ground, and the customers lining up.

LYC's changing titles from mining junior to producer soon!

I'll be watching the price action closely on the 4th of May, and the 7th....and I'll be plonking down my money into LYC probably on the 7th.

: an almost producer, with customers lined up for a high demand ore, with a sp of 80-90 cents...if this is not a crazy undervalued price, then all i can say is .

 

[BIG BWACULL]

Lynas announcement out 12% increase in rare earths prices Batou an sichuan china productions face stoppages GOOD NEWS
Price up Supply down

 

[fmoraes]

What's a good source for news on Lynas?

Also, on the US, is there a good way to track the stock price? The brokerage support of LYSCF doesn't provide good quotes during the day.

Francisco

 

[nioka]

What's a good source for news on Lynas?

Also, on the US, is there a good way to track the stock price? The brokerage support of LYSCF doesn't provide good quotes during the day.

Francisco

I have one I can't reveal. Everything is going to plan with one small hitch. Some of the locals dont want rare earths shipped through Esperance. They are thinking radioactive? I hear the company will have no problem overcoming that hitch. In my opinion the share price will continue to increase at a satisfactory rate.
The stock price in the USA can be traced through "pink sheets"
The company does keep the market well informed with ASX announcements

 

[gardenmyrna]

What's a good source for news on Lynas?

Also, on the US, is there a good way to track the stock price? The brokerage support of LYSCF doesn't provide good quotes during the day.

Francisco

I'm in the states and LYSCF is updated each evening on the Pink Sheets, I usually check the Aussie exchange in the morning to see how the previous day went... Also did anyone hear about Merrill Lynch buying 33,600,000 shares ? that can only be a good thing !:

 

[fmoraes]

I'm in the states and LYSCF is updated each evening on the Pink Sheets, I usually check the Aussie exchange in the morning to see how the previous day went... Also did anyone hear about Merrill Lynch buying 33,600,000 shares ? that can only be a good thing !:

My point was that you can only see the changes after the market has closed, there is no intraday pricing available. My broker only shows 0.0 for both bid and ask. I was just wondering if anyone has any ideas if this is likely to change once more people start buying it.

Francisco

 

[gardenmyrna]

My point was that you can only see the changes after the market has closed, there is no intraday pricing available. My broker only shows 0.0 for both bid and ask. I was just wondering if anyone has any ideas if this is likely to change once more people start buying it.

Francisco

As I understand it, the pink sheets are based on the ASX price, with the time zone difference, they only update it once a day. the ASX is closed when US markets are open. They are 11 hours ahead of EST. You could get up at 2 am and check the ASX price..

 

[nioka]

I understand that there is no relationship between the pink sheets trading and the ASX. You can choose to trade your shares on either. LYC shares are popular enough in the USA to be listed on the pink sheets. This has probably been brought about by a merchant bank, mentioned in earlier posts, creating a market in the USA to offload a considerable number of shares obtained at a low price as part of a financing deal in the early days.
During USA trading times you can follow the sales there

 

[gardenmyrna]

Nioka,
do you have a web-site for checking interdaily pinksheet prices ? My broken only updates at the end of the day, @ 1.5 hrs after the close.
Thanks, GM

 

[nioka]

Nioka,
do you have a web-site for checking interdaily pinksheet prices ? My broken only updates at the end of the day, @ 1.5 hrs after the close.
Thanks, GM

www.pinksheets.com. enter lyscf as symbol. prices delayed 15min. allow for time differences.allow also for price in US dollars