LOT - Lotus Resources

[Sean K]

A bit of a resource upgrade due mainly to lowering the cut-off grade, which is disappointing. It's actually only a 3% increase in total ore from the previous MRE. The M&I ore has hardly changed at all.

One thing that's very good with this deposit is the high grade when compared to Namibia which is quite low. For eg, BMNs deposit is down around the cut-off grade for this.

On the surface of it, you'd be a little confused as to why they're going through all this preliminary work and a DFS to start a mine that was actually already operating prior to Fukushima. But, the key change has been the ore sorting process which means they'll be processing higher grade ore through the system, creating efficiencies and lowering Opex.

Of ASX listed companies, PDN will probably be the first mothballed miner back into the race with BOE and LOT fighting for second and third. LOT the cheapest to get back on the track.

Surprises to the upside for LOT are the Livingstonia initial MRE that will provide only incremental additional ore, and the rare earths drilling near Kayelekera which has gone a bit quiet.

 

[Sean K]

New interview out with Bill Powers.

 

[Country Lad]

Looks like a break to me

 

[TechnoCap]

Looks like a break to me

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Setting sail into the sunset I hope

 

[Sean K]

Setting sail into the sunset I hope

Nudging its highs today which is lovely to watch. All U stocks have had a good run since POU re-started it's move up and the war started with one very notable unwarranted sell-off. In hindsight, with belief in the uranium narrative, holding and keeping and topping up on the sell off has proved a good tactic. Only one nuclear accident away from disaster though.

 

[TechnoCap]

Nudging its highs today which is lovely to watch. All U stocks have had a good run since POU re-started it's move up and the war started with one very notable unwarranted sell-off. In hindsight, with belief in the uranium narrative, holding and keeping and topping up on the sell off has proved a good tactic. Only one nuclear accident away from disaster though.

View attachment 138915

The U train is fuelled for now

 

[Sean K]

LOT breaking up.

Most U players are running though...

 

[TechnoCap]

LOT breaking up.

Most U players are running though...

View attachment 140107

Hamburger with the LOT has 64c in sight shorter term IMO

 

[Country Lad]

Looks like a break to me

It was and it is again

it is

 

[Sean K]

Hamburger with the LOT has 64c in sight shorter term IMO

Not sure how you plucked 64c TC?

As a broad measure, looks undervalued compared to some peers who will get back into production around the same time. Probably should be about 2/3 of Boss's MC, due to assets and future production profile, IMO.

 

[Sean K]

Not much been happening in the World of LOT. Waiting for the POU to get to a certain price before pulling the trigger, unlike BOE. I think the difference is that LOTs OPEX / AISC is slightly higher than BOEs projected $25. I think I heard $30 a pound, so not much but enough to make them wait.

A small increase to the overall resource here which should grow in the future and add a few years of LOM. Not as good a grade but will add value down the track. Not sure why they couldn't add another three years in production to the DFS based on this. Looks like an easy thing to add to an excel spreadsheet.

I wonder if JB over at DYL is looking at these guys as a bolt on starter for the merged DYL-VMY?

 

[Sean K]

Time for LOT to pull the trigger and get some finance sorted for the re-start. If BOE and PDN can do it, these guys can. But, there's no FID until a specific U price is reached, which I think is around $60.

 

[Sean K]

Maybe this capital raise is part of the funding to finance start up. Lucky U stocks have had a run the past week or so, the raise might have been done at the lower end of trading range. Or, they were just waiting for a pop to pull the trigger on this.

I reckon JB at DYL would like to take this back and add to the stable. Could be their first operating mine.

 

[Sean K]

In the Fin:

 

[frugal.rock]

Chart update

 

[Sean K]

Chart update

View attachment 146435

Has been following most of the U sector even after the capital raise. I don't like their lack of confidence in not going for a re-start along with PDN and BOE. If those two think it's OK, it means LOT aren't sure about their Opex numbers to me.

Slightly worried about the potential fallout from the nuclear plant in Ukraine that Russia and Ukraine are playing around.

 

[chuckyball]

Has been following most of the U sector even after the capital raise. I don't like their lack of confidence in not going for a re-start along with PDN and BOE. If those two think it's OK, it means LOT aren't sure about their Opex numbers to me.

Slightly worried about the potential fallout from the nuclear plant in Ukraine that Russia and Ukraine are playing around.

 

[chuckyball]

I think it's a blink issue, the producers and the utilities are in a contracting price standoff.
Will be interesting to see what comes out of the London gathering happening at the moment, historically been a trigger for movement in the U market

 

[The Triangle]

Not surprising this LOT glossed over the actual economics. Good luck easily finding NPV/IRR forecasts. If they're doing their optimization work around the high 60s low 70s mark, then that should give us an indication of what they need to have a decent NPV and IRR for the project.

I'm 100% lost to understand how this company has a near $300 million market cap??? Hope these rare earths turn into something, but they won't turn into anything if drill rigs aren't turning.

 

[Sean K]

Not surprising this LOT glossed over the actual economics. Good luck easily finding NPV/IRR forecasts. If they're doing their optimization work around the high 60s low 70s mark, then that should give us an indication of what they need to have a decent NPV and IRR for the project.

I'm 100% lost to understand how this company has a near $300 million market cap??? Hope these rare earths turn into something, but they won't turn into anything if drill rigs aren't turning.

View attachment 153231

$60 was the ‘incentive’ price for the past 3 years and now they’re throwing around $75 as being economical. I’m still a medium term uranium bull if there’s no disaster.

Japan going completely back on line is important. Canada holding back on supply would be nice. Kazakstan being shut out of supply would be very good. Russian completely shut out of the entire industry would be best.