LNC - Linc Energy

[Mickel]

I wonder how much input LNC had to this analysis? Or in fact to any reports? Any thoughts ?

I think that they cooperated to a large extent, even courted Austock to provide analyst reports. While LNC would have emphasised certain parts of their business, I'm not sure if this included the AFC Energy alliance.

Perhaps LNC said that they were still testing and would make further announcements on which to make projections... OR

perhaps LNC did highlight the alliance but Austock largely ignored it in their projections as there is no comparative operation on which to value it.

Also, as this was Austock's first report on LNC, they have decided to be very conservative while suggesting the valuation could be ramped up markedly as various plans are "Derisked".

As I stated earlier, I think LNC has to get the initial 200 MW power station with the AFC technology in Sth Aust started ASAP. Then build the 5000bpd GTL plant (probably in Asia) and site it next to the power station as quickly as possible to prove the whole concept.

I imagine the 5,000bpd GTL plant would cost somewhere around $300M from what PB said last week regarding a 20,000bpd plant (ie "trying to keep costs around $1B"). The 5,000 plant would be a bit more than a quarter of the 20,000 cost. That should be easily doable financially and the 5,000bpd plant will be more manageable (and quicker to build) to start up. LNC can then improve on the first one with the experience gained.

All IMHO and I hold.

 

[Mickel]

In regards to the Federal Election this weekend, would a Labor victory be better for Linc or does it depend on state governments in South Aust and Queensland?

A Liberal win would probably be better as the Mining Tax would be scrapped.

But in the immediate future the Sth Aust Labour Party is probably more important, and they appear to be very supportive of LNC.
Also, from the Austock Report, Sth Aust will need more "green friendly" power.

 

[Jonathan111]

Kolkata, Aug. 14

Rajasthan State Petroleum Corporation Ltd (RSPCL) — a wholly-owned subsidiary of the state-owned Rajasthan State Mines and Minerals Ltd — has received expression of interests (EoI) from 13 companies for underground coal gasification (UCG) programmes in the lignite deposits of Barmer-Sanchore and Bikaner-Nagpur basins in western Rajasthan.

UCG projects produce syn-gas (a mixture of various amounts of carbon-dioxide and hydrogen) having lower energy density than natural gas that is often used as fuel. The gas may also be used as an intermediate for producing synthetic petroleum. According to a company official, RSPCL will form a joint venture with two-three selected bidders and seek lignite blocks from the Centre for undertaking UCG projects in the 1,100 sq km area in two basins. The official said that among the prominent bidders are: Adani Power, Tata Power, Essar, Shiv-Vani, Abhijeet group, JSW Energy and Simon India Ltd (a wholly-owned project management subsidiary of Zuari Industries of the K K Birla group).

Essar has interest across the energy vertical. Shiv-Vani is mostly into drilling services. Abhijeet group has interests in metals and power sector. Adani, Tata Power and JSW Energy are major players in power generation. “All the 13 participants will now be asked to prove their technical eligibility in undertaking such projects. Based on technical expertise, we will shortlist two-three bidders to form joint ventures,” the RSPCL official told Business Line.

The PSU issued the tender seeking EoIs for UCG on June 12. Though initially the tender was scheduled to be closed on July 12, RSPCL extended the date to August 12. Underground coal gasification is considered as an uncharted territory in India. In 2004, oil and gas major ONGC mooted a UCG programme with technical support from the Stochinsky Institute of Russia in the coal-rich eastern region of the country. The company had entered into an MoU with Coal India Ltd for the project. In 2005, ONGC proposed a pilot UCG project in lignite-rich Tamil Nadu in collaboration with Neyveli Lignite Corporation. However, since then ONGC has not announced any progress in the projects.

 

[dogeatdog]

Kolkata, Aug. 14

Rajasthan State Petroleum Corporation Ltd (RSPCL) ”” a wholly-owned subsidiary of the state-owned Rajasthan State Mines and Minerals Ltd ”” has received expression of interests (EoI) from 13 companies for underground coal gasification (UCG) programmes in the lignite deposits of Barmer-Sanchore and Bikaner-Nagpur basins in western Rajasthan.

UCG projects produce syn-gas (a mixture of various amounts of carbon-dioxide and hydrogen) having lower energy density than natural gas that is often used as fuel. The gas may also be used as an intermediate for producing synthetic petroleum. According to a company official, RSPCL will form a joint venture with two-three selected bidders and seek lignite blocks from the Centre for undertaking UCG projects in the 1,100 sq km area in two basins. The official said that among the prominent bidders are: Adani Power, Tata Power, Essar, Shiv-Vani, Abhijeet group, JSW Energy and Simon India Ltd (a wholly-owned project management subsidiary of Zuari Industries of the K K Birla group).

Essar has interest across the energy vertical. Shiv-Vani is mostly into drilling services. Abhijeet group has interests in metals and power sector. Adani, Tata Power and JSW Energy are major players in power generation. “All the 13 participants will now be asked to prove their technical eligibility in undertaking such projects. Based on technical expertise, we will shortlist two-three bidders to form joint ventures,” the RSPCL official told Business Line.

The PSU issued the tender seeking EoIs for UCG on June 12. Though initially the tender was scheduled to be closed on July 12, RSPCL extended the date to August 12. Underground coal gasification is considered as an uncharted territory in India. In 2004, oil and gas major ONGC mooted a UCG programme with technical support from the Stochinsky Institute of Russia in the coal-rich eastern region of the country. The company had entered into an MoU with Coal India Ltd for the project. In 2005, ONGC proposed a pilot UCG project in lignite-rich Tamil Nadu in collaboration with Neyveli Lignite Corporation. However, since then ONGC has not announced any progress in the projects.

Makes you wonder if PB has discussed a JV with MR Adani.
Based on the above article, it appears the UGC technology that LNC have been perfecting, may be of interest.
LNC holder.

 

[basilio]

One thing that still troubles me is the weight of sellers over buyers for LNC. We are talking of almost 3 to 1 ratio which suggest there are a lot more people wanting to get out rather than in.

If we believe that LNC is now financially secure with a promising technology and excellent prospects you hope there was some rethinking of it's desirability as part of a share portfolio.

Today at 9.18

105 buyers for 765258 units


235 sellers for 2281113 units

 

[brty]

basilio,

I do not think you need to pay any credence to those depth of market figures. When you think about how large operators behave in the market, the last thing they want to do is tip their hand. What physically happens is that the sell side can/is stacked with orders at a higher price when the operator wants to buy. Of course as the price rises the orders are pulled.

If you look through the changes in substantial holders notices, you often see where large holders who have been raising their levels of a stock (this applies to all stocks), have some sales in there. If you go back to the dates of the sales you often see that it is when the market has risen too quickly (for them to get their full order), and they sell some shares to scare the rabbits and lower the price for more purchases later on. The whole process of acquiring stock can take months for very large players, and their traders are usually very good at forcing prices through 'pivotal' technical prices.

brty

 

[Mr Z]

It is hard to base a lot on market depth as many players will not show their hands. I for one rarely do, I watch then hit it when my price gets hit and I am seeing the action I want to see. However the likes of me don't count!

If there is big accumulation/distribution going on for an account it will often be fed into the market in small parcels at intervals that suit the turn over rate. On the very odd occasion I have seen it clearly when a company has gone into a halt and someone has forgotten to stop the computer buying/selling. On the last occasion it was selling and the ask got driven down to about 1% of the last sale. About every 20 seconds a parcel of something like 367 shares was added to the ask at a slightly lower price. In normal trading you'd have not seen it because the volume was high enough to disguise it and the price was stable enough that the ask stayed around the same range. Only when the computer was sitting there out bidding itself did it drive the ask to a silly level. In the end they woke up and the asks disappeared in a flash and all was back to normal before we came out of the halt.

Anyway, the point is that the big players have better tools than we do so unless they want to be seen they can remain invisible to the likes of us. So you can't always put a lot of stock in market depth.



Edit: What brty said too...!

 

[basilio]

basilio,

I do not think you need to pay any credence to those depth of market figures. When you think about how large operators behave in the market, the last thing they want to do is tip their hand. What physically happens is that the sell side can/is stacked with orders at a higher price when the operator wants to buy. Of course as the price rises the orders are pulled.

If you look through the changes in substantial holders notices, you often see where large holders who have been raising their levels of a stock (this applies to all stocks), have some sales in there. If you go back to the dates of the sales you often see that it is when the market has risen too quickly (for them to get their full order), and they sell some shares to scare the rabbits and lower the price for more purchases later on. The whole process of acquiring stock can take months for very large players, and their traders are usually very good at forcing prices through 'pivotal' technical prices.

brty

Thanks for that. I can certainly see your point. Still wondering though if there is some actual imbalance with LNC in terms of market perception.

_____________________________________________________________
In relation To Mr Z

Certainly makes one realise the different levels at work in the marketplace. I suppose it calls into question how much transparency there is in the stock market.

 

[Mr Z]

Certainly makes one realise the different levels at work in the marketplace. I suppose it calls into question how much transparency there is in the stock market.

Not enough transparency for sure.... it may appear to be a level playing field at first but it is not really! I am also dead certain there are many subtleties to the way the big guys trade that I/we are completely unaware of! I have seen plenty of big stink bids and blocking bids used... something that is not supposed to be legal but in watching its hard to come to any other conclusion!

Such is life.... we are gold fish in a shark pool, learn to swim FAST!

 

[luckypaul]

If you look through the changes in substantial holders notices, you often see where large holders who have been raising their levels of a stock (this applies to all stocks), have some sales in there.

Anyone know at what levels 'substantial holdings' have to be made public and where we can see Linc's main holders at any point in time?

 

[Mr Z]

Luckypaul, I answered you before but the mods saw fit to delete it and warn me because the answer to your question, which is 5%, by the way, is not 100 chars of content.

So there you have it.... 5% wrapped in enough 'stuff' to keep a bureaucrat happy!

 

[Mickel]

Anyone know at what levels 'substantial holdings' have to be made public and where we can see Linc's main holders at any point in time?

Further to Mr Z's reply, the top 20 shareholders of any public company are listed in the annual report each year. Apart from that, with Commsec click on "Research" and then "Shareholders" to see current situation for holders above the 5% limit.

 

[luckypaul]

Thanks for the feedback on "substantial shareholders" Mr Z and Mickel. I couldn't access Commsec as I am guessing your directions were for members Mickel? I don't have access to Commsec as I am British, living in Bangkok trading from accounts in Hong Kong and Luxembourg - hey that makes me sound rather dubious!

Anyway the Linc Annual Report is due next month although as it only goes to the end of June 2010, I doubt it will contain any surprises. That should show top holders as Mickel suggests.

I have been a Linc holder to varying degrees for over 3 years now and agree with comments that the price is behaving strangely now compared to the past. I guess now is the time that funds would be buying in if they are going to, although at these daily volumes it'll take them rather a long time to build up any significant holdings.

I am looking forward to the results of the Australian election this weekend, in the hope that the mining tax could take a tumble and give Linc a boost. It should certainly be nearer to $2.50 by now for sure.

I have an idea that Vale may be buying the remaining 2 coal tenements and announce a partnership with Linc in their first commercial GTL plant at the same time. If that is anywhere near a possibility I am guessing 5-6 weeks after the election to get any deal thru (a new?) FIRB. I certainly wish it could be sooner as September/October are statistically favourites for a nasty correction. This is all complete speculation of course , not too many Brazilians in Bangkok to squeeze for information!

Having said that, I do have contacts in oil and gas here and they have told me that Linc Energy have been in Thailand (2 weeks ago), talking to companies regarding the fabrication of modules for their GTL plant. I am informed they didn't make progress here so I hope they have better luck elsewhere in Asia - somewhere with stronger quality control perhaps (and definitely NOT China)! Time will tell and I have fingers crossed for a good results. I am in Linc for the long run but I could do with my faith getting a boost about now! Thanks again for the feedback.

 

[Mickel]

Thanks for the feedback on "substantial shareholders" Mr Z and Mickel. I couldn't access Commsec as I am guessing your directions were for members Mickel? I don't have access to Commsec as I am British, living in Bangkok trading from accounts in Hong Kong and Luxembourg - hey that makes me sound rather dubious!

Anyway the Linc Annual Report is due next month although as it only goes to the end of June 2010, I doubt it will contain any surprises. That should show top holders as Mickel suggests.

I have been a Linc holder to varying degrees for over 3 years now and agree with comments that the price is behaving strangely now compared to the past. I guess now is the time that funds would be buying in if they are going to, although at these daily volumes it'll take them rather a long time to build up any significant holdings.

I am looking forward to the results of the Australian election this weekend, in the hope that the mining tax could take a tumble and give Linc a boost. It should certainly be nearer to $2.50 by now for sure.

I have an idea that Vale may be buying the remaining 2 coal tenements and announce a partnership with Linc in their first commercial GTL plant at the same time. If that is anywhere near a possibility I am guessing 5-6 weeks after the election to get any deal thru (a new?) FIRB. I certainly wish it could be sooner as September/October are statistically favourites for a nasty correction. This is all complete speculation of course , not too many Brazilians in Bangkok to squeeze for information!

Having said that, I do have contacts in oil and gas here and they have told me that Linc Energy have been in Thailand (2 weeks ago), talking to companies regarding the fabrication of modules for their GTL plant. I am informed they didn't make progress here so I hope they have better luck elsewhere in Asia - somewhere with stronger quality control perhaps (and definitely NOT China)! Time will tell and I have fingers crossed for a good results. I am in Linc for the long run but I could do with my faith getting a boost about now! Thanks again for the feedback.

Interesting speculation there, Luckypaul.

Regarding Commsec and substantial shareholders, this is what is displayed-

Shareholders buying
Date Shareholder Previous % New % Shares Traded
No shareholder activity


Shareholders selling
Date Shareholder Previous % New % Shares Traded
No shareholder activity


Substantial shareholder list at 08-09-09
Shareholder Name Share Holding % Shares Held
Newtron Pty Ltd 190,923,904 41.56

As far as I'm aware, Peter Bond through his private company Newtron P/L has been the only substantial shareholder since the IPO.

 

[Mr Z]

Top 20 from the 2009 report. I like to see the top 20 add up to a high %, gives the feel of a company in stronger hands. However the Nominees holdings can be a bunch of smaller holdings representing stock held in another market. I once had a small miner with ANZ on the register for 45%, it was actually the stock listed in Frankfurt and representative of a group of much smaller holders. So with Nominees listings you have to dig a little to get to the truth in my experience.



PS: Pan are smart operators IMO, nice to see them on the register.

 

[Mr Z]

Just thumbing through my charts. LNC looks about ready to have another swing at $2 to me. Stochastic is low and turning and volume is on the upswing again. Weekly chart looks like there is still room to move. The gap is covered. A few long tail days around the turn. On balance volume pulling up in the last three sessions. Generally more + than - volume. If we can crack $2 we are past the short term static for a bit IMO. Not a bad picture IMO.



Oh yeah... I hold LNC

 

[basilio]

Interesting to see how the market is valuing LNC at the moment. At the closing price of $1.70 the market value of 495 m shares is $ 841 m. And this is with $500m in the bank and hopefully anywhere between $1-2.5 bill coming on board in the foreseeable future.

Before the coal sale LNC was valued at $520 m ( 494m x $1.05) . In effect the extra $500m in the bank has actually lowered the rest of the company by $180m.

Certainly not what I anticipated. Will be interesting to see the effect of any future coal sales and at what stage LNC is revalued by analysts.

 

[dogeatdog]

Interesting to see how the market is valuing LNC at the moment. At the closing price of $1.70 the market value of 495 m shares is $ 841 m. And this is with $500m in the bank and hopefully anywhere between $1-2.5 bill coming on board in the foreseeable future.

Before the coal sale LNC was valued at $520 m ( 494m x $1.05) . In effect the extra $500m in the bank has actually lowered the rest of the company by $180m.

Certainly not what I anticipated. Will be interesting to see the effect of any future coal sales and at what stage LNC is revalued by analysts.

Equally intrigued Basilio.
Recently Austock stated a market cap of $841 with a "buy" and a 12month sp of $3.05
BBY came out with a market cap of $950 with a "hold" and sp of $1.99
I realise the two companies worked on different scenarios.
Are we awaiting a final AR from MCF and Co in the US, or additional ones?

I took onboard a further 20k shares today at 1.71 with the gamblers view that the "Mad Monk" has a chance of beating the Labour party.
What's the general view of his chances at this late stage in the race?
Been a holder since early June, and in for the long haul.

 

[frankblack]

Equally intrigued Basilio.
Recently Austock stated a market cap of $841 with a "buy" and a 12month sp of $3.05
BBY came out with a market cap of $950 with a "hold" and sp of $1.99
I realise the two companies worked on different scenarios.
Are we awaiting a final AR from MCF and Co in the US, or additional ones?

I took onboard a further 20k shares today at 1.71 with the gamblers view that the "Mad Monk" has a chance of beating the Labour party.
What's the general view of his chances at this late stage in the race?
Been a holder since early June, and in for the long haul.

I dont believe you actually bought your shares on the basis, that a conservative government would be better for LINC. Did you, really????
And tell the truth.

 

[namrog]

I took onboard a further 20k shares today at 1.71 with the gamblers view that the "Mad Monk" has a chance of beating the Labour party.
What's the general view of his chances at this late stage in the race?
Been a holder since early June, and in for the long haul.

Federal labor, and Martin Ferguson in particular has been solidly behind Linc.

I doubt the result of tomorrows election will have any effect on the linc share price what so ever, and if that's where your head is as far as being a trader or investor in Linc is concerned, maybe you'd be better off just puting you money on the election result......!!