LNC - Linc Energy

[basilio]

Projected 4.2GW Linc UCG roll-out by 2021. Based on Linc’s objectives we project 4.2GW of UCG sites throughout Australia, Europe and the US by 2021

This is a 12 year projection across 3 continents! HUGE amount of fudge possibilities.

As Smurf points out 4.2 GW represents a significant but not overwhelming amount of the current energy supply in Australia alone - let alone the energy requirements 10 years into the future across Asia, America Australia and wherever. Seems quite feasible if the first ones work, the figures are right and we are all looking for pollution free electricity.

 

[Mickel]

I've been thinking about the deal that's been done, and if linc are serious about ctl surely it's best to take the cash now and get on with the job, because I'm hearing that it will be 5 to 7 years before the Adani boys ship any coal...

I'd really like to see from management now a plan of action going forward, with the final goal of a comercial liquid plant, laid out step by step including estimated time to completion, regardless of where it's located.

The Australian on Aug 4 stated that the earliest coal shipments from Galilee would be in 2014 because of lack of infrastructure. So 5-7 years was always a realistic timeframe. The royalty stream would also be a reassuring backstop for bankers looking to finance any projects for LINC-
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-386.pdf

Considering what PB stated in the Inside Business interview on ABC1 last Sunday, LINC have many variables to work through before deciding where to site the 1st GTL plant. Once that decision is made, I think there will be a flurry of announcements stating their plans and rollout timeframes. We already know that the planned construction period for a 20,000bpd GTL plant is 20 months (mentioned again in the interview last Sunday).The main hiccup could be Govt approval holdups (also mentioned last Sunday).

Also, if any analyst reports are published before the above, they could give indications of LINC's plans and timeframes.

While many long time LNC shareholders (myself included) are frustrated with the delay of the commercial GTL plant, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting bigger and bigger.

 

[Mr Z]

Coal is so disliked that they really need to work on selling this process to the public. You get the impression that Obama would shut all US coal down in a blink of an eye if he could, purely for political purposes. This is one of the few things that concerns me with LNC, political risk... LOL they didn't trust the QLD government and as it turns out that is looking like reasonable call. I would love to see them really start to sell the idea to the public... maybe I worry too much.

 

[dogeatdog]

Coal is so disliked that they really need to work on selling this process to the public. You get the impression that Obama would shut all US coal down in a blink of an eye if he could, purely for political purposes. This is one of the few things that concerns me with LNC, political risk... LOL they didn't trust the QLD government and as it turns out that is looking like reasonable call. I would love to see them really start to sell the idea to the public... maybe I worry too much.

Obama, like so many other US presidents, promised much, and has achieved little (thus far).
With the recent BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, coupled with Americas desire to be less reliant on their traditional suppliers of hydro carbons, one would hope Obama and his merry men would welcome the type of technology
that comanies like Linc have to offer.
We live in hope MR Z
Your recent comments ard charts were very informative, thank you.

Here's hoping for a positive week for Linc.
I am a holder of LNC shares.

Onward MR Bond!

 

[Mr Z]

....Obama and his merry men would welcome the type of technology...

Yup that would be logical wouldn't it but..... ?! California especially seems to operate in some political twilight zone, one wonders if that "through the looking glass" outlook is not becoming pervasive. I keep telling myself that energy reality has to smack the US around the chops sooner of later but not so so far!

Vaiting vatching!

Charts... are no problem, anytime, just ask I welcome others charts as well, always good to see peoples thoughts.

 

[Huitzii]

Charts... are no problem, anytime, just ask I welcome others charts as well, always good to see peoples thoughts.

Here is my take on LYC on a more short term T/A scale, Ive been watching it for a while now but I haven't entered as of yet but that's not to say that I wont in the future if the opportunity presents itself.
LYC is trading outside its recent lower trendline, hovering on the $1.71 resistance and has been travelling sideways from 2/8/2010 to present ,between $2.00 and $1.71.
MACD is not in a positive stance.
Volume is declining ATM aswell.
10,68 and 90 day average are still heading in a northerly direction.
From my point of view it needs to show a clear positive direction either way.
From here it could break up or down ,but from recent announcements I would like to think that it will head north ....time will tell,the market will decide this week I would think.
This is a non bias non holder view,and is only my opinion,please dont act on my thoughts as im often wrong
DYOR

 

[Mr Z]

Thanks...

I see falling volume onto a support level as a positive thing, we are consolidating the recent gains IMO. The next attempt at higher numbers should be telling, I will be looking for an indication of the sort of strength we are dealing with here.

I own.

 

[Slipperz]

Adani is getting set at their end with port infrastructure.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/indl-goods-/-svs/metals--mining/Adani-to-commission-1st-phase-of-Dahej-terminal-by-month-end/articleshow/6313830.cms

 

[Huitzii]

Hahahaha sorry guys in my last post in the text I have put LYC instead of LNC my appolagies ..just a Typo but my chart and thoughts are both for LNC.
DYOR

 

[awg]

Considering what PB stated in the Inside Business interview on ABC1 last Sunday, LINC have many variables to work through before deciding where to site the 1st GTL plant. Once that decision is made, I think there will be a flurry of announcements stating their plans and rollout timeframes. We already know that the planned construction period for a 20,000bpd GTL plant is 20 months (mentioned again in the interview last Sunday).The main hiccup could be Govt approval holdups (also mentioned last Sunday).


While many long time LNC shareholders (myself included) are frustrated with the delay of the commercial GTL plant, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting bigger and bigger.

Given LNC interests in Vietnam, along with its large population, and heavy reliance on imported diesel, wonder whether they have it as plan B for a commercial GTL plant, if Australian regulatory hurdles are too high.

I doubt that Vietnam would make things difficult in that sense and Capex might be less as well, especially once the trial plant/process is proven up in SA

 

[basilio]

Given LNC interests in Vietnam, along with its large population, and heavy reliance on imported diesel, wonder whether they have it as plan B for a commercial GTL plant, if Australian regulatory hurdles are too high.

I doubt that Vietnam would make things difficult in that sense and Capex might be less as well, especially once the trial plant/process is proven up in SA

Sounds good on paper but I thought there was some mention of slow progress in Vietnam ? Can't quite remember it exactly but feel sure there was a comment to that effect.

 

[Mickel]

Given LNC interests in Vietnam, along with its large population, and heavy reliance on imported diesel, wonder whether they have it as plan B for a commercial GTL plant, if Australian regulatory hurdles are too high.

I doubt that Vietnam would make things difficult in that sense and Capex might be less as well, especially once the trial plant/process is proven up in SA

I understand that Vietnam has severe power rationing and theri need for power is greater than the need for diesel.

Quote Basilio
"Sounds good on paper but I thought there was some mention of slow progress in Vietnam ? Can't quite remember it exactly but feel sure there was a comment to that effect."

I have heard that too Basilio. I think it was Justyn Peters at the Melbourne Limelight presentation in June. The comment was along the lines of "the holdup is not because of LNC but Govt approvals have been slower than expected".

I think their 1st GTL commercial plant will be in Australia or the USA because of better legal security for their Intellectual Property.

 

[luckypaul]

A positive Analyst report from Austock Securities (A 'Buy' with a 12mth price target of $3.05). http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/1231411/LNC_Initiating_Report_160810.pdf

Lets hope the market listens....

 

[basilio]

A positive Analyst report from Austock Securities (A 'Buy' with a 12mth price target of $3.05). http://www.vision6.com.au/download/f...ort_160810.pdf

Lets hope the market listens....

That is a very comprehensive report Lucky Paul. One surprise however was the complete failure to discuss the AFC technology and the opportunities it offers to provide totally clean electricity. I see it as a surprise given the research they say they have done and the success of the fuel cell to this stage. And if we to believe LNC they are seeing the fuel cell as an important part of their future. (see previous posts on AFC technology)

 

[basilio]

Oops ! Just found a reference to the Fuel Cell technology in the report. Very low key though and didn't highlight the fact that LNC does have an pilot fuel cell in operation.

Also noted that the GTL plant is now projected at 4000 bpd rather than the 20000 bpd previously suggested. Looks as if the smaller modular plants are the go.

 

[basilio]

Did anyone else spot the other recent post coal sale analyst report ? It was done by BBY (which were one of the original strong supporters of LNC)

Short story is that they have a $2.00 share value with only a HOLD statement on LNC. They feature a close analysis of the GTL process with reviews of what has been happening around the world with other similar plants.

They almost totally discount LNC's other coal, gas and oil tenements an have a huge discount figure on the coal royalties. All very interesting.

So where is the 3rd report ?
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-25.pdf

 

[dogeatdog]

Did anyone else spot the other recent post coal sale analyst report ? It was done by BBY (which were one of the original strong supporters of LNC)

Short story is that they have a $2.00 share value with only a HOLD statement on LNC. They feature a close analysis of the GTL process with reviews of what has been happening around the world with other similar plants.

They almost totally discount LNC's other coal, gas and oil tenements an have a huge discount figure on the coal royalties. All very interesting.

So where is the 3rd report ?
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-25.pdf

Amazing how totally different pictures are painted in the two reports.
Some middle ground needed perhaps in a3rd?
I've never wished for higher oil prices, but it seems that's what's required to maintain the current LNC sp, at least until a further tenement sale is announced.
LNC share holder.

 

[Mickel]

Did anyone else spot the other recent post coal sale analyst report ? It was done by BBY (which were one of the original strong supporters of LNC)

Short story is that they have a $2.00 share value with only a HOLD statement on LNC. They feature a close analysis of the GTL process with reviews of what has been happening around the world with other similar plants.

They almost totally discount LNC's other coal, gas and oil tenements an have a huge discount figure on the coal royalties. All very interesting.

So where is the 3rd report ?
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-25.pdf

The BBY analyst report is very informative on the GTL plant construction costs around the world today. Unfortunately it is not good news. It is also disappointing that they only attribute $0.20 per share value to LNC's GTL process and, as you say Basilio, heavily discount other assets especially the royalties.

It will be interesting to see if the US analyst, Merriman Curhan Ford &Co will give an update report that covers all assets in a realistic way.

I think LNC management need to-
- expedite commercial Syngas trials in Sth Aust
- push hard for Sth Aust approvals for initial 200MW Power Station with AFC
- build 5000 BPD GTL Plant in Asia ASAP and put it in Sth Aust
- Announce such plans

In this way they may overcome most doubters and DE-RISK the company to a great extent, even if the GTL plant costs $50M more than they would like.

I must say the Austock Report was very comprehensive (apart for the AFC power plants) and did give some indication of LNC's plans and timetables (more than LNC itself has given).

 

[basilio]

I must say the Austock Report was very comprehensive (apart for the AFC power plants) and did give some indication of LNC's plans and timetables (more than LNC itself has given).

I wonder how much input LNC had to this analysis? Or in fact to any reports? Any thoughts ?

 

[calais]

In regards to the Federal Election this weekend, would a Labor victory be better for Linc or does it depend on state governments in South Aust and Queensland?