Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

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I am a long term holder who just wants this sale to go through as soon as possible (PLEASE!). I am fed up with sitting in a stock that has missed the rally making me miss it too. You can have just so much faith you know?? :banghead: Gotta get out soon before the markets go down and take Linc with it!! I am a very scared investor who got bit last Oct and doesn't want to get done again!
 
Did anyone catch the story in the Fin Review re Clean Coal dead.
Started off bad for LNC and by end of story I was excited for them.
The oppositions ideas on clean coal and carbon capture all bodes well for Linc's wholly owned subsidiary Linc Carbon Solutions. My own research on this technology is that all of Lincs other projects will be dwarfed by this technology if it is taken up.You wont be able to put a price on it!!
Does anyone else know anything about this technology and how far off it is from being commercial.
My thought, the coal sale will be announced at the AGM on 26th.
 
The Dealer said:
Did anyone catch the story in the Fin Review re Clean Coal dead.
Started off bad for LNC and by end of story I was excited for them.
The oppositions ideas on clean coal and carbon capture all bodes well for Linc's wholly owned subsidiary Linc Carbon Solutions. My own research on this technology is that all of Lincs other projects will be dwarfed by this technology if it is taken up.You wont be able to put a price on it!!
Does anyone else know anything about this technology and how far off it is from being commercial.
My thought, the coal sale will be announced at the AGM on 26th.
Click to expand...

I am unaware of any announcement by LNC on progress of Linc Carbon Solutions. Mind you, if they have a successful process, they'd want to keep it very quiet until they have it fully protected by patents etc because, as you say Dealer, it will be very valuable.

Here is a link to LNC's description of their aims for Linc Carbon Solutions -
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/fact-sheet/e4-fact.pdf

Of course, it will be less valuable if there is no ETS in Australia and no Copenhagen agreement.

I have previously speculated that there may be a coal sale announcement at the AGM. But, if it is a foreign sale, the timing (and approval) is largely in the hands of the Federal Treasurer.
 
The Dealer said:
The oppositions ideas on clean coal and carbon capture all bodes well for Linc's wholly owned subsidiary Linc Carbon Solutions.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that Linc Carbon Solutions is a joint venture company.

This extract is from P Bond's report to the 2008 AGM-

"Linc Carbon Solutions
Linc Energy entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and then a Joint Venture contract with BioCleanCoal with the aim of creating a Joint Venture company that can produce a solution to the processing of CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) sources. The aim is to create a bioreactor which has the ability to absorb CO2 at one end, and to produce oxygen and biomass from the other.The project name for this unit is the ‘Green Box’. I am pleased to note that the ‘Green Box’ is making good progress and that the partnership with BioCleanCoal has been going extremely well.

Our Linc Energy Project Manager on the ‘Green Box’ is Mariano Minotti who is the longest serving employee at Linc Energy (other than myself) and is doing an outstanding job ensuring Linc Energy and its partner have the ability to produce this extraordinarily cost-effective and environmentally friendly diesel in the future with a very small CO2 footprint. In fact, we will aim to have one
of the smallest CO2 footprints in the world. The ‘Green Box’ will become an exciting business avenue for the Company. I am looking forward to the first ‘Green Box’ demonstration unit being operational at Chinchilla before the end of 2009."
 
The Dealer said:
Mickel
Got to say who cares...
Most are not in Linc for power. It is the barrels of oil. The carbon technology (linc carbon solutions). The world geographic positioning (US, China, Vietnam, Russia). The acreage. The permits. Dare I say it, the sale of non core assets.
Stop running it down. Just sell your position and go all in to Cougar.
Click to expand...

MOU out today with BP committing in principle to take 14000 barrels a day from the proposed SA facility.

All coming together. Selling off what are now non core assets in Qld is gravy. The SA project is where the focus will now be.

Linc Energy continues and expands its MOU with BP AUSTRALIA

• Linc Energy is proud to continue with the Memorandum of Understanding with BP Australia to be Linc Energy’s First Major Customer for Ultra-Clean Diesel

• The MOU has been amended to incorporate a take or pay agreement for the proposed Gas to Liquids Facility in South Australia. Linc Energy Ltd (ASX: LNC) (OTCQX: LNCGY) is pleased to announce that it has extended its Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with BP Australia Pty Ltd. This MOU allows for BP Australia to be the first customer to purchase a minimum of 14,000 barrels per day of Ultra-Clean diesel to be produced at Linc Energy’s first production plant to be commissioned in South Australia.
 
TheAbyss said:
• The MOU has been amended .
Click to expand...

only change is:

Take or Pay

Investopedia explains Take or Pay
This is used in some contracts as a method to ensure that the transaction occurs. For example, a Banana farmer will enter into a take or pay contract with a fruit retailer so that the retailer will buy all the bananas from the farmer or pay a provision for not buying them.

:cool:
 
The Dealer said:
A small bit of news like today's makes the SP jump over 10%
What will happen to the SP with the announcement of it's sale??
Click to expand...

With that tonnage, hopefully a price tag around $3 Billion minimum, which equates to $6 per share.

I still consider that Teresa is worth $1 Billion and a minimum of $2 Billion for Galilee.The Pentland tenament could be worth $200 Million but at least one analyst has stated in the recent past that it could be sold on a royalty basis.

Waiting... waiting.
 
Further to my previous post, I have an updated sale price based on Merriman Curhan Ford's analysis dated 17/7/09.

It is difficult to set up their matrix here, but here goes with my added data in bold.

US$ per ton---$0.18-- $0.36 --$0.54 -- $0.71 --$0.89--$1.07

A$ per tonne--$0.25-- $0.50 --$0.75 --$1.00 --$1.25 --$1.50 -(17/07/09)

A$ per ton -$0.19 --$0.39 --$0.58 --$0.76 --$0.96- $1.15 -(18/11)

Emerald ---------------------- --- 639 -------852 -----1065 ----1278 --(852MT)

--------------------------- --------- 494 ----- 647----- 818 ----980 -(852MT)

Galilee*------- 438---- 875----1313------1750 --------- -------- (1.75BT)

--- ----------1482---3040---4524-----5928 ---------- ---- (7.8BT)

Pentland -------------- 133-----200-------266 ------------ (266MT)

-------------- ------- 103 -----154---- 202--------- (266MT)

Here is their link- http://www.mcfco.com/extend_Research_ResearchEngine/Public Reports/LNCGY/LNCGY (07-17-09).pdf

For various reasons outlined in their report (their value of the 3 tenements had a range of A$1.2 B to A$3.3B) I consider the following to be fair value CURRENTLY-

Teresa A$ 980M
Galilee A$3040M
Pentland A$ 154M

TOTAL A$4174M

This equates to approx $8 per share
 
A small bit of news like today's makes the SP jump over 10%
What will happen to the SP with the announcement of it's sale??
Click to expand...

Yeah but there is always the possiblity that the sale is factored into the price and the price will fall after the news. Hopefully it will be impressive news and it will carry the sp $1-2 higher in time.

There seems to be alot of short term traders on this one. Today The price opened at 1.78 and too much supply hit the market making it fall back 10c or so. Unfortunately i'm right in the noise and face the possibility of selling for a short gain and buying cheaper. But i'm just not sure :confused:
 
mexican said:
Linc's tenement looking a little more attractive


http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...asttrack-1b-palmer-project-20091118-im8v.html
Click to expand...

Mexican can you please refresh me on who is doing the power plant??

So much for the government being opposed to dirty coal projects. I guess if they think they are exporting the problem overseas it's not our problem?

If there is some sort of deal announced, surely the stock would have to be re rated straight away. I know I wouldn't be selling for less than $5. I'm sure PB wont be selling at all. There is no sale price factored in on this one I'm sure. The institutions did that at $5++ last year and got burnt. Those who hold now are waiting for the dollars to be in the bank.

Also was reading a Martin Place Securities analyst report on CTP. LNC gets a couple of mentions about possible joint ventures on GTL. That would be lovely.
Don't know if you can paste those sorts of things on here, but you can go to the CTP site and get it off there.
 
I have not heard anything on that subject Dealer.

I know LBY have a tenement next to Waratah and Linc, don't know if they have any plan's with CNX in that area.
 
mexican said:
I have not heard anything on that subject Dealer.

I know LBY have a tenement next to Waratah and Linc, don't know if they have any plan's with CNX in that area.
Click to expand...

Sorry made a mistake, it wasn't on the CTP home, it was on Oil Barrel (free to join)

http://www.oilbarrel.com/companies/details0/company/central-petroleum-ltd.html

If you go here and sign up, click on Central Petroleum it takes you to a site that has MPS analyst report. I read it all and it mentions LNC a couple of times, but nearer the end it talks JV with them.

Check it and let us know what you think.
 
Hi there,

I am attaching the Merriman Curhan Ford Analyst report for 19 Nov 2009 received from Linc today via Lincs "E-Mail Updates". This is the US Analyst which tracks LNCGY over in the US. Overall a positive 'Buy' recommendation with some interesting valuations. However this analyst says:-

"We believe management will wait to monetize Galilee until the resource has been drilled further in order to realize maximum value. While we do not expect a sale before mid-2010, Linc expects to report a measured open cut resource in excess of 1B tonnes in the near future, and we anticipate this announcement will be another positive catalyst for the stock."

which is not good news either for us investors or for Linc's short term cash flow...should you choose to believe them, that is.

It does seem strange that Linc had supposedly completed a bidding process (see http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-184.pdf), then were doing due dilligence (Peter Bonds "5 weeks" to go) and then...nothing until the resource that was being bid on was updated: http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-193.pdf

This doesn't make any sense to me unless:-
a) there are no bids/only bids that have failed on the table and Mr Bond has cried "wolf" for the 4th time in a year,
b) There is a bid and an interested party but the total value is dependant on final declared resources (due in 10 weeks of frantic drilling from last week) - what a nice patient and rich bidder that must be :confused:,
c) I have gone mad and do not know what I am talking about :banghead:

I hope it is b) cos Linc's SP need a desperate kick in the butt with daily high volume trades but little movement. Any other theories out there that tie all the clues together or should we send a beautiful blonde to get the info from Mr Bond??

Note: I am a long term but frustrated holder
 

Attachments

  • Merriman Curhan Ford 2009-11-19.pdf
    191.1 KB · Views: 28
I think there will be a two stage sell. I.e. sell P and E first and then sell G when the value is fully realised. I still believe they can sell P and G for 1b. Also in this report, why do they value G based on the open cut tonnage only? I think the underground coal should attract some value as well
 
If anyone is attending the AGM tomorrow (26/11/2009), please ask what is happening with the coal sale?

That is if an announcement is not made, which I guess is a possibility. They cannot get through a public meeting without this being bought up! Lets hope there is some positive news.
 
uptrend said:
anyone in here are watching LNC? nice bounce today before close, possibly due to news releasing soon? 60C seems to be a very good support, does anyone know when are the next announcements due?
Click to expand...


Yes, it is. The volume is high as well (1,379,925 ), but in a short term, it is not suggest to buy a lot because technically this dog is running a bit over:). Energy sector stocks are
always interesting to watch.

P.S. ASX finish in the end which proves my model is working.
 

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