Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

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feetdawg said:
Expertise and technology and 67% share dont come free. Granted GCL must FUND the CAPEX, but if commercial scale UCG-GTL is a reality which can go on for decades in one location, then paying off the capex through 67% stake and producing a barrel of fuel for say $30 will not take a lot of time relative to the longevity of the project.
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Feetdawg, I agree with most of your post, but GCL don't have to fund the CAPEX by themselves.

I quote from the announcement-

"GCL also has an obligation to principally arrange CAPEX funding of the commercial projects the joint venture undertakes in China via debt and other structures. Linc Energy will have minimal balance sheet exposure whilst maintaining ownership of 33% of the commercial projects."

I interpret this as the joint venture entity being the borrower and so repaying the debt will come from the joint venture earnings.

Happy to hear different views.

Also happy to see the green with LNC the last 2 days.
 
AFC Energy RNS Today

Barclays Stockbrokers RNS Alert
RNS Number : 4693E
AFC Energy Plc
31 May 2012

AFC Energy PLC


("AFC Energy" or the "Company")

Director change

AFC Energy (AIM: AFC), the energy company providing alkaline fuel cell systems to industry, is pleased to announce the appointment of Adam Steven Bond as a non-executive director of the Company. Adam joins the board on 1 June 2012 and will represent Linc Energy, a significant shareholder in AFC Energy. He replaces David Smith, who resigned from the board today having changed roles within Linc Energy.

Adam has been Linc Energy's alternate director during David Smith's term of office. He is currently President Clean Energy at Linc Energy, where he is responsible for the execution and deployment of the company's clean energy, Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to Gas to Liquids (GTL) projects around the globe.

Prior to joining Linc Energy, Adam held positions with the British Government as Project Director, Lead Negotiator and Commercial Lead for the United Kingdom's first carbon capture and storage programme. He was also instrumental in the design of the commercial framework for delivery of the United Kingdom's offshore electricity transmission network.

Tim Yeo, Chairman of AFC Energy, commented: "Firstly, on behalf of the board, I welcome Adam's appointment. Adam is already familiar with AFC Energy and its strategy, having been David Smith's alternate on the board, and he will be invaluable in commercialising our technology for some of our core application markets. Secondly, I thank David for his contribution to the Company and wish him well in his new role at Linc Energy."

Adam Bond, commenting on his appointment, said: "AFC Energy has been an important strategic investment for Linc Energy. Since investing we have seen the Company make significant technical and commercial progress and we believe that Linc Energy can add significant value to the synergistic relationship. AFC has an exciting future."

Adam is 36 years old and is a director of Adam Bond Commercial Advisory Limited.

There are no other matters required to be disclosed pursuant to paragraph (g) of schedule 2 of the AIM Rules.


Ends
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Is AUD ~$0.60 the new norm for Linc Energy?
Click to expand...

We'd hope not wouldn't we ?

I think many companies are at SP's which seem to have no reflection on their underlying value. LNC joins the group.

Probably the biggest, realistic fear is an economic collapse in Europe which then spreads around the world. In that scenario "underlying value" would disappear in a cypher stroke. Just can't see an easy solution.:2twocents
 
Nice little story from LNC today on the development of their project with GCL.

They had suggested they would tie up all the loose ends by June 30th so they had to make some sort of statement today.

No cigar yet but it looks like a very good work in progress. It will be fascinating to see if the market flicks off todays little jump in the same way it dismissed the original announcement !! :eek:

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc&f=pdf
 
From the recent UBS announcements, it appears that they are one of the main players in the short selling of the stock.
Hopefully the signing of the GCL deal will put paid to most of the shorters.

The recent statements by LNC on their oil production and target for 6,000 to 7,000 bopd by Dec 2012 give strong hope for their self funding. Oil production totals over the coming months leading to Dec 2012 will be scrutinised very closely.
 
Oh what a sad demise of Lincs SP.
I'm sure todays announcement helped the plunge. www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-412.pdf
Not so long ago I would have jumped at the chance to buy in again at this level, but not now.
PB needs to pull a rabbit out of a hat, or at least show some resolution to recent, and longer term announcements.
Frustration is a word that comes to mind.
(Currently not a LNC share holder)
 
The LNC market is being well and truly spooked. Currently 48c and struggling to hold its price.

Just can't see the justification for this loss of confidence. Can only agree with doggie that despite the low SP it feels impossible to get back into the stock with any confidence.

Quarterly results are due tomorrow. If there is some really bad news then we should be asking questions about prompt reporting. But if they are on track with oil production/sales and conclusion of the GCL deal surely there should be a turnaround ?
 
Spooked is the word...

I have long term support @ 48 and under that in the 38 to 32 range. Given a QE3 disappointment come Wednesday I could see the 30 range happening and they must be worth the punt at that sort of discount!

Amazing episode!

But that is what stoplosses are for eh?
 
This is from the Velocys (Oxford Catalysts) website, and the Company receiving the unit is believed to be LNC-

"24th May 2012

Successful Start-up of Commercial Scale FT Reactor

Oxford Catalysts Group PLC, the leading technology innovator for synthetic fuels production, is pleased to announce the successful start-up of a commercial scale Fischer-Tropsch (“FT”) reactor at a client facility, with performance matching expectations.

This is the Group’s first ever start-up of a commercial scale FT unit (with a nominal capacity of over 25 bpd). It is being operated by an integrated energy company, at their facility, to provide detailed engineering information for the design of commercial synthetic fuels plants. Construction and operation of such medium scale modular facilities at sites around the world is a central part of the customer’s strategy. The reactor is expected to operate for three to six months.

The Group announced the sale of this reactor on 9th January 2012. The short time from sale to start-up was a result of close collaboration between the Group and its client, as well as the client having an existing facility into which the reactor could be easily integrated.

Roy Lipski, CEO of Oxford Catalysts Group said:

“This is a true milestone for the Group and our client. We’re excited to prove the capabilities of our technology at this commercially significant scale, and are confident that it will meet our customer’s needs and facilitate their ambitious plans for widespread commercial synthetic fuels production.”

- Ends -

http://www.velocys.com/financial/fa/ocgfa20120524.php

Also, there is speculation that this ongoing trial of the FT unit may be the reason that LNC hasn't finalised the agreement with GCL. LNC may wish to obtain more certainty on the production volumes of the unit (trial of 3 to 6 months) before finalising the raft of legal contracts with GCL.

While the delay in finalising the GCL deal is frustrating for S/Hs, hopefully the pot will be more golden at the end of the rainbow. holder
 
Nice movement on LNC shares today. Currently up 16% .

Maybe we are getting close to an announcement on the GCL deal? And perhaps Mickels research regarding the GTL operation is close to being confirmed ? Would be great to see some big news soon.
 
Is now a good time to invest in LNC? With the BPD projections the stock looks to be undervalued. Anyone know why the CFO left or if they are close with the China deal?
 
Is it a good time to invest in LNC? Same question has been asked all the way from $2.20 to 50c. Always lots of good reasons to say it was undervalued and a good thing.

On paper the current price is very appealing. Oil production seems to be on track. The Chinese GCL deal seems imminent *. Cash flow has been guaranteed for a further 3 years with extension of financing package and so on.

Trouble is most investors have been repeatedly burned in the past 2 years with imminent deals that havn't come through. On paper LNC should be a whale. But it isn't. Investors have been waiting since 2006 to see some commercial action on the CTG and GTL front after all the trials, technology improvements, flights across Australia etc.

One piece of the puzzle escapes me. For years Peter Bond has talked of the capacity of LNC to produce high quality diesal at $30 a barrel and sell it for $100 plus. If the technology has been proven and the figures are still right what exactly is holding up the process ? I guess the Chinese deal is intended to be the commercial proving ground for this process. Lets see it fly.
 
basilio said:
Is it a good time to invest in LNC? Same question has been asked all the way from $2.20 to 50c. Always lots of good reasons to say it was undervalued and a good thing.

On paper the current price is very appealing. Oil production seems to be on track. The Chinese GCL deal seems imminent *. Cash flow has been guaranteed for a further 3 years with extension of financing package and so on.

Trouble is most investors have been repeatedly burned in the past 2 years with imminent deals that havn't come through. On paper LNC should be a whale. But it isn't. Investors have been waiting since 2006 to see some commercial action on the CTG and GTL front after all the trials, technology improvements, flights across Australia etc.

One piece of the puzzle escapes me. For years Peter Bond has talked of the capacity of LNC to produce high quality diesal at $30 a barrel and sell it for $100 plus. If the technology has been proven and the figures are still right what exactly is holding up the process ? I guess the Chinese deal is intended to be the commercial proving ground for this process. Lets see it fly.
Click to expand...

Bas, I think that piece of the puzzle is the astronomical costs [$Millions] involved in setting up a GTL plant before they sell even one barrel of diesel for their $50-70 dollar profit
 
This sounds awfully familiar to most other "alternative fuel" ideas. They may well be profitable, but he sheer cost of getting them up and running in the first place is prohibitive for most companies.
 
ColB said:
Bas, I think that piece of the puzzle is the astronomical costs [$Millions] involved in setting up a GTL plant before they sell even one barrel of diesel for their $50-70 dollar profit
Click to expand...

Col and Bas
On the Velocys website (refer my post 3 Aug 12) under "Investors" you can request an analyst report from Edison Investment Research. In their Report of 16 May 2011 they mention costings for their micro-channel GTL plants.

For a 2500 bopd plant they are quoting income for Velocys of $10M upfront license fee and $1.4M cost of replacing the catalysts every 2 years. It appears that the $10M covers the cost of construction of the GTL plant. However, it would appear the associated plant connecting the gas would be an additional expense.While the sums quoted are 15 months old any increase should be marginal.

So for approx $120M they may have a 25,000bopd GTL plant, which is a fraction of their estimates of 18 months/2 years ago($800M to $1B for 20,000bopd). LNC already have a 25bopd GTL plant from Velocys from which they have been producing and testing since 24 May 2012.

Hopefully, the Chinese deal will be signed soon and the joint venture can place orders for the Velocys plant.

LT Holder
 
Mickel thanks for your figures on a Velocys GTL plant.

I'd love to believe it but somehow I just don't think it is "right". $10m to build a 2500bopd GTL plant seems absurdly cheap. Simply speaking LNC has easily had or could borrow $10m which would then produce approximately $7.5 m gross a month (2500 x $100 p/b x 30 days) . If that was the case they would be totally nuts not to jump in screaming!

I think we are missing something here. I would be keen to see what it is. Any thoughts ?
 

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