Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Lithium

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Core lithium down almost 10% on open at they fail to complete the offtake agreement with Tesla!
CXO cites that Chinese processors remain n alternative option....

This looks shaky. China is not in great shape atm so not too sure how reliable those processors will be in the future.
Not sure why Tesla pulled out...
 
Anyone else concerned about the trajectory of this chart?

Holding a couple of lithium plays that have done quite well, but I've seen charts like this before. It normally ends up tulip-like.

Screen Shot 2022-11-07 at 1.43.08 pm.png
 
Good afternoon
What goes up, comes down. It is inevitable. Supply v Demand. When? ha ha ha ha ha ha
Crystal ball broke.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
waterbottle said:
Depends, how much of this driven by China's appetite? How's iron ore faring?
Click to expand...

There's a supply/demand thing happening, but I'm not sure if this rise is solely based on that. I don't understand the market as well as I'd like, but parabolic charts worry me. BHP has stated they're not interested in getting into the sector and Goldman called it toppy about 6 months ago so my radar is up. As an example of what could happen in a turnaround, look at Tin and MLX. On the other hand, RIO seems bullish on picking up lithium, so it's a he said she said thing at the moment. Having traded through the uranium craze in the noughties I'm wary.
 
Good afternoon,
The Australian government in March 2022 forecast global demand for lithium could rise:
  • to 636,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2022, from 526,000 tonnes in 2021;
  • that demand was expected to more than double to 1.5 million tonnes by 2027 as global EV adoption continues to rise;
  • estimated global lithium output to increase slightly above demand to 650,000 tonnes LCE in 2022 and that there would be 'tight market conditions. '
It is assumed that increase in lithium output, may not be able to catch up with demand from battery producers.

Lithium prices fell between 2018 to 2020 due to oversupply as miners, such as Pilbara Minerals and Altura Mining, increased production.
The difference between then and now, for mine, lithium prices started to climb early 2021 in line with EV growth and perhaps the global economy rebounding from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Australian Government has published its Resources and Energy September 2022 Quarterly Report (Dept. of Industry, Science and Resources, Office of the Chief Economist):


This is the one point of truth for the federal government and the report contains a wealth of information concerning commodities and economic outlook.

With respect to Lithium, it is anticipated to become a $10 billion-plus export industry within a year, moreover:

  • Metals central to the global energy transition (copper, nickel, lithium) are set to earn $33 billion in 2022–23, double what they earned in 2020–21;
  • Spodumene prices are forecast to rise from an average US$598 a tonne in 2021 to US$2,730 a tonne in 2022, and US$3,280 a tonne in 2023 before moderating to US$2,490 in 2024. We expect lithium hydroxide prices to lift from US$17,370 a tonne in 2021 to US$38,575 a tonne in 2022 and US$51,510 in 2023, and moderate to US$37,650 by 2024;
  • Australia’s lithium production is forecast to grow from 247,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2020–21 to 387,000 tonnes in 2022–23 and 469,000 tonnes of LCE in 2023–24; and
  • Australia’s lithium export earnings are forecast to increase by more than ten-fold in just two years from $1.1 billion in 2020–21 to $13.8 billion in 2022–23, and ease to $12.9 billion by 2023–24.
For mine, unless there are startling technological advances which hampers demand, potential new variants of the pandemic and problematic supply chains triggered by high levels of inflation, rcw1 believes Lithium will heading in the right direction for some time.

Further reference
capital.com

Lithium Price Forecast | Is Lithium a Good Investment?

Tight supply and solid EV demand may keep lithium price forecast bullish despite the recent price fall…
capital.com capital.com



Kind regards
rcw1
 
Sean K said:
There's a supply/demand thing happening, but I'm not sure if this rise is solely based on that. I don't understand the market as well as I'd like, but parabolic charts worry me. BHP has stated they're not interested in getting into the sector and Goldman called it toppy about 6 months ago so my radar is up. As an example of what could happen in a turnaround, look at Tin and MLX. On the other hand, RIO seems bullish on picking up lithium, so it's a he said she said thing at the moment. Having traded through the uranium craze in the noughties I'm wary.
Click to expand...

You have to take the predictions and analyses of the big guys with a generous quantity of salt. Especially if you're still even remotely considering taking the likes of GS at face value rather than seeing that they're deliberately pushing the narrative they want you to believe for their own benefit, not at all just openly sharing their honest thoughts to help you (heh heh heh, it feels ridiculous even typing that).

Very clearly, GS did not believe what they were saying, but they knew what their absurd words would do to the market, and they were correct.

You really need to be able to do some of your own thinking and analysis. Simply following what others want you to think will serve them but not you.

In the short term, they can play fun games and push the price in whatever direction they want it to go, but in the big picture and longer term, prices will more or less follow the realities of supply and demand. For that reason I'm very bullish on lithium prices over the next few years. Evil as they are, I thank Goldman Sachs for providing me with the opportunity to buy up lithium stocks at bargain prices along with their cronies. I'm already on a multibagger and looking forward to further gains on my lithium investments.

Just remember that almost everyone, especially the big players, say what they want you to think, not what they think. The only person you can trust to be honest with you is you (and for most people even that is very dubious), and perhaps people you know personally. Every bit of analysis or data you get online needs to be backed up by understanding of your own or it's worthless, often worth less than zero, other than being used as a guide for what others are likely to think in the very short term (eg GS puts out an absurd bearish narrative, so you know over the next few days the market will probably become bearish and then probably recover quickly when they wake up to the scam - that one was incredibly predictable, thanks again, GS, I made a quick and very easy few grand off that one).
 
Sdajii said:
You really need to be able to do some of your own thinking and analysis. Simply following what others want you to think will serve them but not you.
Click to expand...
Thinking and analysis?
What is this terribly boring laborious and foul construct of the mind of which you speak?
?
 
frugal.rock said:
Thinking and analysis?
What is this terribly boring laborious and foul construct of the mind of which you speak?
?
Click to expand...

It's an archaic practice from back when humans experienced independent thought and signs of intelligence rather than blindly and obediently ridding themselves of such things and mindlessly following what their perceived superiors told them, oblivious to the fact that their 'superiors' by no means had their best intentions in mind.

Be a good lad, observe and believe the mainstream narratives and behave accordingly. There's a good boy, we'll reward you with a nice social credit score. As long as you obey us you will be up against the wall slightly later than those who oppose us. Cowardice and obedience will serve you well in the short term, and that's all that matters, right? Tell your children to do the same, they might not even suffer severely until after you're gone; you may not even have to see it and you can die believing you weren't a pathetic person.
 
The benefit that Lithium has over other commodities is the fact that much of the demand is legislated - that is, the push for a green economy and the gradual removal of ICEs. It's also supported by a demographic change that recognises the importance of environmental conservation.

To date, much of the demand is driven by China as a lithium processor, although that will change as Western nations seek to diversify their input sources. This is a risk inherent to the lithium trade.
If China enters recession, Lithium processing will probably take a hit (as has iron ore) ergo fall in prices as miners flood a shrinking group of processors.
In fact, many of the lithium processors have purchased significant stakes in lithium miners.

The other risk is the technology shift. Lithium's value is in the production of batteries. There are other technologies out there, which although experimental, may one day usurp lithium as the green metal.
 
waterbottle said:
The benefit that Lithium has over other commodities is the fact that much of the demand is legislated - that is, the push for a green economy and the gradual removal of ICEs. It's also supported by a demographic change that recognises the importance of environmental conservation.

To date, much of the demand is driven by China as a lithium processor, although that will change as Western nations seek to diversify their input sources. This is a risk inherent to the lithium trade.
If China enters recession, Lithium processing will probably take a hit (as has iron ore) ergo fall in prices as miners flood a shrinking group of processors.
In fact, many of the lithium processors have purchased significant stakes in lithium miners.

The other risk is the technology shift. Lithium's value is in the production of batteries. There are other technologies out there, which although experimental, may one day usurp lithium as the green metal.
Click to expand...

Lithium is nowhere near as green as the narrative suggests. I'm sure we've all seen the memes involving train loads of coal labelled as electric vehicle fuel, etc. Lithium is not an energy source, it's not a replacement for oil, it's a replacement for fuel tanks. As usual these days, China controls the narrative, and the true source of the drive to change is money and power, not environmentalism. It's no coincidence that the west controlled oil, China controls lithium, and the whole system is making oil obsolete and making lithium king, removing power and money from the west and handing it to China.

But, the misleading narrative doesn't change the fact that the whole ESG, virtue-signaling, dishonest power change etc will increase the price of lithium and make those investing in it wealthy, while the west continues its death by a thousand cuts.
 
Sdajii said:
Lithium is nowhere near as green as the narrative suggests. I'm sure we've all seen the memes involving train loads of coal labelled as electric vehicle fuel, etc. Lithium is not an energy source, it's not a replacement for oil, it's a replacement for fuel tanks. As usual these days, China controls the narrative, and the true source of the drive to change is money and power, not environmentalism. It's no coincidence that the west controlled oil, China controls lithium, and the whole system is making oil obsolete and making lithium king, removing power and money from the west and handing it to China.

But, the misleading narrative doesn't change the fact that the whole ESG, virtue-signaling, dishonest power change etc will increase the price of lithium and make those investing in it wealthy, while the west continues its death by a thousand cuts.
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter what it truly is or isn't. The myth around lithium (whether you believe it or not) is that it is necessary for the green revolution, which virtually all Western governments have subscribed to and legislated targets for.
 
Belli said:
Research for something better never stops.

www.abc.net.au

Queensland-developed battery technology a potential game changer for energy industry

A Brisbane company could change the face of Australia's energy landscape forever with an eco-friendly, carbon neutral cell that charges 70 times faster than a lithium ion battery and can be reused thousands of times.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Click to expand...
Agreed, but how long does it take to transform research into a successful commercial product, that is then standardised and widely adopted? Too long to worry about for lithium IMO
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I knew this would happen.

Lithium batteries are too volatile and expensive.

gg
Click to expand...

Yeah, I knew unsubstantiated claims would be made too :)

Cures for cancer, cures for AIDS, cold fusion, coastal cities being under water, hemp plastic water bottles which somehow are biodegradable within weeks or months yet can be used to store drinks, new battery technology which will make all previous types obsolete... they're all just a few years away and have been for decades. Some people wake up and learn what to believe and what not to, but most don't.
 
waterbottle said:
It doesn't matter what it truly is or isn't. The myth around lithium (whether you believe it or not) is that it is necessary for the green revolution, which virtually all Western governments have subscribed to and legislated targets for.
Click to expand...

Absolutely spot on. The narratives don't really make any sense, but when the powers that be say 2+2=5, your investments won't go well by expecting industries to do what's best for the planet rather than what the powers that be say will be good for the planet, especially if the whole system is rigged to force them to comply with the narrative. If the narratives were about facts, truth and making the world a better place, we wouldn't have a dying world ruled by blatantly evil people, and you just need to look out the window with open eyes and mind to see what the world is actually like.
 

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