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Lithium

Albermarle has had to fly in specialist workers from China to fix the problems with its lithium production. They will also train the Aussie workers from scratch for chemical processing.

The lithium hydroxide plants of Albemarle and Tianqi/IGO have failed to meet expectations.
 
Always amused by the headlines. A new day, a new dawn. . .



Interestingly I did buy some ALB after the shares dumped due to the cap raise. I'm ahead atm.
 
Lithium was terrible today. Lithium Carbonate futures on GFEX are roughly flat ..., but they were slammed yesterday in response to Pilbara Minerals' (PLS) BMX auction*. Possibly a case of delayed reaction here, but lithium pricing is not looking strong.

Some of today's moves:
*A pre-auction offer for spodumene concentrate with the buyer paying the equivalent of $US1200 a tonne. The online auction for the 5000 tonnes was scheduled for 18 March, but the company said it “received a number of pre-auction offers”. The miner last held an auction at the end of 2022, with a winning bid amounting to $US8575 a tonne
 
It seems like the addition of new mines will lead to further price drops.
 
It is hard to trust most of the data around on Li prices, much of it is sold to offtakes directly to battery manufacturers but the general consensus is that it's the lowest it's been in years. Greenbushes is the golden standard at this stage and it has cut back its production, it can run as low as $450 a tonne but not many others in Australia can come near that. LTR was claiming around $750 a tonne and that was before their finance was pulled. CXO ceased mining production at around $1000 a tonne but their product grade was fairly lower than others. Apparently, LTR is full speed ahead to start production in mid June .
 
Basically why we should be making offtake producers make giga factories here, or tell them to FCK off.
We did that in the 60's and we now have a massive iron ore industry, if we don't do it with Lithium we become everyone's third world bitch.
Australia needs to grow a pair, rather than importing zillions of plebs to drop the labour cost, which will equate to a lifestyle drop, despite what the glee club followers believe.
Jeezuz we are becoming what the unions fought so hard to stop, and now they are the cheer leaders, it does my head in.
 
I think Australia is done for, no company is going to want to set up here.

IR “Deal” An Act Of Economic Vandalism


 
I'm keeping track of lithium prices as I made the mistake of not generally following it, and then it tumbled hard.
If or when it starts climbing again, I'll be all over it like meat ants on a carcass.



 
Do I see evidence of demand for lithium producers today? LTR - up, LTM - up, PLS- up.

Overnight in the ALB.us up big.
 
Kerry Sun in Market Index last night. Two Bob each way in my opinion but some may find it interesting*

Lithium Carbonate Futures GFEX​


An important candle in the context of the broader lithium carbonate rally​

If you had asked me before today’s session what I thought the probability was of today’s candle/volume combination appearing – I would have said bupkis!

Today’s candle’s range is the largest in over two weeks, and its volume the largest in nearly a month. It indicates elevated motivation from the demand-side in a prevailing environment where I was increasingly believing there was none.

If I’m surprised, I bet market participants are also trying to get their heads around what today’s move means for prices going forward.

I suggest the supply-side might back away in the hope the newly found demand might get them a better deal down the track. The demand-side might feel some urgency to fulfil their requirements.

Basically, it should put a proverbial cat among the pigeons – let’s see how high they fly.

In this regard, we’re approaching several key historical points of supply beginning with 117,350 and extending all the way up to the major point of supply at 125,000.

White candles and or downward pointing shadows in this range would further signal the demand-side’s new-found resolve, and therefore increase the likelihood of a major breakout.

Simply, a close above 125,000 commences a new bull market in lithium carbonate – and I honestly didn’t think I’d have reason to type that last sentence any time soon. But there you go – I just did!

If you asked me before today’s session what I thought the probability was of the lithium carbonate price closing below the key historical point of demand at 105,800 – I would have said it feels like an inevitability. Below that point we’re very much in resumption of the bear market phase, and who’s to say it won’t still feature in the not-too-distant future?

.
 
As China scrambles for Zimbabwe’s lithium, small miners are left behind
Small-scale miners are finding ways to navigate decreased demand and lower prices of the raw materials they supply.
June 12, 2024
Https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/6/12/as-china-scrambles-for-zimbabwes-lithium-small-miners-are-left-behind
In 2021, an output of 1,200 tonnes of lithium was recorded in the country and it is set to become Zimbabwe’s third biggest mineral export after the gold and platinum group of metals.
China has been striking deals in Zimbabwe, taking advantage of cordial relations with the government of President Emmerson Mnangagwa.


 
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Meanwhile back in Aust the lithium producers continue to be sold down. PLS, LTM and IGO are plunging lower.

Are we at the bottom yet?
 
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