LGL - Lihir Gold
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Taken from The Age today - looks like the news was already factored into the share price:
Lihir Gold says gold production fell 28% in the first quarter, following a scheduled shut down of a process plant in Papua New Guinea for maintenance.
The company produced 138,525 ounces in the three months ended March 30, down from 193,302 ounces in the same quarter last year.
Lihir shares closed up 0.3%, or 1 cent, at $2.94.
Lihir maintained its production guidance for calendar 2008.
''For the full year 2008, the company now expects to produce in excess of 850,000 ounces, with production boosted by the merger with Equigold, subject to completion as scheduled in June,'' it said.
The forecast assumes production of 700,000 to 770,000 ounces from its key Lihir Island operations, 40,000 to 50,000 ounces from Ballarat, 60,000 to 70,000 ounces from Bonikro and 50,000 ounces from Mt Rawdon after its merger Equigold NL merger.
Lihir said the cash gold price received for the March quarter rose to $US928 an ounce, from $US794 in the December quarter.
Lihir Gold says gold production fell 28% in the first quarter, following a scheduled shut down of a process plant in Papua New Guinea for maintenance.
The company produced 138,525 ounces in the three months ended March 30, down from 193,302 ounces in the same quarter last year.
Lihir shares closed up 0.3%, or 1 cent, at $2.94.
Lihir maintained its production guidance for calendar 2008.
''For the full year 2008, the company now expects to produce in excess of 850,000 ounces, with production boosted by the merger with Equigold, subject to completion as scheduled in June,'' it said.
The forecast assumes production of 700,000 to 770,000 ounces from its key Lihir Island operations, 40,000 to 50,000 ounces from Ballarat, 60,000 to 70,000 ounces from Bonikro and 50,000 ounces from Mt Rawdon after its merger Equigold NL merger.
Lihir said the cash gold price received for the March quarter rose to $US928 an ounce, from $US794 in the December quarter.
Sean K
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Hooly dooly!! I have been taken for a bath through croc infested waters on LGL and NCM, back to 06 levels. eeeeek!!!
I doubted they would break those long term support lines but it ´s looking mighty tenuous. $2.50 and LGL is roof roof.
Had the shorters switched from the financials to the goldies I wonder?
I doubted they would break those long term support lines but it ´s looking mighty tenuous. $2.50 and LGL is roof roof.
Had the shorters switched from the financials to the goldies I wonder?
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What a great medium term trading stock LGL has been in the last couple of years.
Finding a little bit of support now in the middle of the Pitchfork and buy signals with a crossover in the oversold MACD and a reverse in the Parabolic.
The D&S levels are starting to marry up as well which have been one sided for a couple of months.
Not suggesting that these are long term long signals but just enough to have a bit of a nibble.
SGB
Finding a little bit of support now in the middle of the Pitchfork and buy signals with a crossover in the oversold MACD and a reverse in the Parabolic.
The D&S levels are starting to marry up as well which have been one sided for a couple of months.
Not suggesting that these are long term long signals but just enough to have a bit of a nibble.
SGB
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Sean K
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Depends on where you think gold is going I reckon. Did we see a top? I am unsure right now. When will US interest rates bottom? When will POO peak? Is inflation about to be curbed? When ´s the next elephant gold field going to be dicovered by AZM with 1b oz au at 100g tn from 5m? LOL
Market seems to be factoring in a turn in the paradigm right now for some reason?
Or, healthy correction and buying opportunity?
I am of the opinion that this is a healthy correction in the gold price... It has run hard in the last 6 months and I dont think we have seen all the implications of the credit crisis yet. I bought into LGL today at $2.99.
Here is an article from City AM in London:
01/05/2008
WITH the global economy slowing down, the crunch tightening its grip and commodity prices soaring, equity markets are volatile and investors are looking for a safe heaven.
Over the long term, gold has proved a good hedge against the general rise in the prices of goods and services, as it is a hard asset and generally holds its value against paper assets in times of high inflation.
Although inflation has generally needed to be above 5 per cent to have a major positive impact on gold, we think the possibility of upside surprises in both inflationary pressures and volatility is likely to lead investors to favour the asset over the next year.
Second, gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar. A key positive driver for the gold price over the next 12 months could be continued weakness in the currency.
Further weakening in the tradeweighted value of the US currency is possible, as interest rates remain high around the globe and concerns about the large US current account deficit resurface. Gold has special properties which give it a dual function as both a currency and a commodity.
TENSIONS
Third, geopolitical tensions could prove supportive. Gold prices tend to appreciate when there are global threats to either security or energy supplies.
The Turkey/Iraq and Iranian nuclear situations have caused price spikes, with the easing of these tensions resulting in price declines. These tensions could re-escalate.
A fourth key support for gold is the rapid growth in emerging markets, where consumers in certain countries have always had a marked proclivity towards gold.
Jewellery consumption accounts for about 70 per cent of total global demand for gold and, of that, over half of consumer demand in 2007 came from India, China, the Middle East and Turkey. Such demand is highly price-elastic and driven by changes in discretionary spending.
Given the positive outlook for these economies and rising income growth among consumers, we think robust demand from these regions will further boost the current recovery in jewellery demand, after some softness in 2006.
Indeed, the strategic direction of China’s demand management is towards explicitly stimulating overall private consumption.
Gold hit a three-month low yesterday and has declined 15 per cent since hitting a record high at $1,030.80 on 17 March. We are still positive on the outlook for gold prices over the next 12 months and have recently raised our price forecasts for 2008 and 2009.
Gold may provide some much needed sparkle to a portfolio that has been tarnished by the recent market downturn.
Source: Barclays Wealth Signpost Commodities, April 2008.
Henk Potts is an equities analyst at Barclays Wealth
Here is an article from City AM in London:
01/05/2008
WITH the global economy slowing down, the crunch tightening its grip and commodity prices soaring, equity markets are volatile and investors are looking for a safe heaven.
Over the long term, gold has proved a good hedge against the general rise in the prices of goods and services, as it is a hard asset and generally holds its value against paper assets in times of high inflation.
Although inflation has generally needed to be above 5 per cent to have a major positive impact on gold, we think the possibility of upside surprises in both inflationary pressures and volatility is likely to lead investors to favour the asset over the next year.
Second, gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar. A key positive driver for the gold price over the next 12 months could be continued weakness in the currency.
Further weakening in the tradeweighted value of the US currency is possible, as interest rates remain high around the globe and concerns about the large US current account deficit resurface. Gold has special properties which give it a dual function as both a currency and a commodity.
TENSIONS
Third, geopolitical tensions could prove supportive. Gold prices tend to appreciate when there are global threats to either security or energy supplies.
The Turkey/Iraq and Iranian nuclear situations have caused price spikes, with the easing of these tensions resulting in price declines. These tensions could re-escalate.
A fourth key support for gold is the rapid growth in emerging markets, where consumers in certain countries have always had a marked proclivity towards gold.
Jewellery consumption accounts for about 70 per cent of total global demand for gold and, of that, over half of consumer demand in 2007 came from India, China, the Middle East and Turkey. Such demand is highly price-elastic and driven by changes in discretionary spending.
Given the positive outlook for these economies and rising income growth among consumers, we think robust demand from these regions will further boost the current recovery in jewellery demand, after some softness in 2006.
Indeed, the strategic direction of China’s demand management is towards explicitly stimulating overall private consumption.
Gold hit a three-month low yesterday and has declined 15 per cent since hitting a record high at $1,030.80 on 17 March. We are still positive on the outlook for gold prices over the next 12 months and have recently raised our price forecasts for 2008 and 2009.
Gold may provide some much needed sparkle to a portfolio that has been tarnished by the recent market downturn.
Source: Barclays Wealth Signpost Commodities, April 2008.
Henk Potts is an equities analyst at Barclays Wealth
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I don't think the full effects of the credit crunch are completely over. I'm guessing there will be a couple more media driven scares to come. People love to be scared.
I think the lower production costs will give LGL an advantage over its competitors in the coming year.
I think the lower production costs will give LGL an advantage over its competitors in the coming year.
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With EQI all but done, the short term should prove interesting. If the Dow drops by 30% as Bank of Scotland have claimed (see below) then my position of wait and see will be justified. I have been interested in this but haven't been confident what I see in the charts. Still getting to grips with them.
I'll keep this on a watchlist. Anyone else thinking of taking a long term position?
"A TOP UK credit strategist from Royal Bank of Scotland is warning clients that the US stockmarket could fall 30 per cent within three months and lead to one of the worst bear markets of the past 100 years.
Bob Janjuah, a star credit analyst who correctly predicted the credit crisis before it kicked in last year, says the global economy is on a collision course with disaster because of high inflation, oil prices and continued fallout from the credit crunch.
He says the US may see a rally into July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out and the delayed effects of the oil-price spike really do their damage.
I'll keep this on a watchlist. Anyone else thinking of taking a long term position?
"A TOP UK credit strategist from Royal Bank of Scotland is warning clients that the US stockmarket could fall 30 per cent within three months and lead to one of the worst bear markets of the past 100 years.
Bob Janjuah, a star credit analyst who correctly predicted the credit crisis before it kicked in last year, says the global economy is on a collision course with disaster because of high inflation, oil prices and continued fallout from the credit crunch.
He says the US may see a rally into July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out and the delayed effects of the oil-price spike really do their damage.
explod
explod
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Yes, I agree and have it on my watch also. Production reports have a very big impact on sentiment and for a number of (fairly reasonable) reasons the last quarter was down on projections. LGL seem to have improved operationally in the last few years but I will wait for the next quarterly, and of course the gold price action before going in.
Having said all that, they have mountains of gold, which seem to be improving slightly in grades so we shall see.
General stockmarket sentiment effects the larger players so I am factoring for greater opportunities following a market bottom, if I can pick it of course.
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LHG has reduced sovereign risk.
It's slashed its hedgebook (with only the EQI legacy to resolve).
It is in the lower quartile of cost-producers, and with geothermal energy will remain there forever (given that all other energy costs have spiked).
It has reserves that give it an easy 10 year additional mine life averaging output greater than a million ounces a year.
In calendar 2009 it is likely to produce about 40% more gold than this year.
Its purchase of EQI gives it excellent greenfield potential through its extensive African tenements.
It's hard to find a better gold company to invest into - I can't!
It's slashed its hedgebook (with only the EQI legacy to resolve).
It is in the lower quartile of cost-producers, and with geothermal energy will remain there forever (given that all other energy costs have spiked).
It has reserves that give it an easy 10 year additional mine life averaging output greater than a million ounces a year.
In calendar 2009 it is likely to produce about 40% more gold than this year.
Its purchase of EQI gives it excellent greenfield potential through its extensive African tenements.
It's hard to find a better gold company to invest into - I can't!
hangseng
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The RBS warning and link.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/bcnrbs118.xml
Take care.
Sean K
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With POG looking to break up (hopefully), should see some renewed support for LGL.
EQI merger is dusted and they have closed their hedge book, so any mid to long term significant increases in POG is really going to support this you'd expect.
Ballarat has reopened and should be contibuting shortly. Looking forward to production rates. Hopefully they don't have problems similar to BDG. Not sure if they are identical tyrpe deposits...
Should be some news from Lihir Island on the current drilling program and perhaps an upgrade to their already incredible reserves.
Last drill results were quite spectacular including:
210m @ 3.4 g/t
186m @ 2.84 g/t
138m @ 2.6 g/t
Further results should be out shortly.
Incredibly they already have 40.5 m oz @ 2.42 g/t total resources.
I think less likely to be taken over now they have acquired BGF and EQI, but fingers still crossed....
Chart wise, found support at the 2.75 ish support line. Glad that held up.
EQI merger is dusted and they have closed their hedge book, so any mid to long term significant increases in POG is really going to support this you'd expect.
Ballarat has reopened and should be contibuting shortly. Looking forward to production rates. Hopefully they don't have problems similar to BDG. Not sure if they are identical tyrpe deposits...
Should be some news from Lihir Island on the current drilling program and perhaps an upgrade to their already incredible reserves.
Last drill results were quite spectacular including:
210m @ 3.4 g/t
186m @ 2.84 g/t
138m @ 2.6 g/t
Further results should be out shortly.
Incredibly they already have 40.5 m oz @ 2.42 g/t total resources.
I think less likely to be taken over now they have acquired BGF and EQI, but fingers still crossed....
Chart wise, found support at the 2.75 ish support line. Glad that held up.
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I'm interested in LGL but still watching. Any comments/opinions re buy point?
Weekly chart: Seems to supported about 3.00? Kennas had it at 2.75, and his experience is way beyond mine. Am I reading this wrong? For a longer term hold (12 - 18 months) I am thinking a price about 2.85 - 2.90 if I can get it.
Will accept any opinions or comments as such. And don't guarantee to act on it!!
Tks
Weekly chart: Seems to supported about 3.00? Kennas had it at 2.75, and his experience is way beyond mine. Am I reading this wrong? For a longer term hold (12 - 18 months) I am thinking a price about 2.85 - 2.90 if I can get it.
Will accept any opinions or comments as such. And don't guarantee to act on it!!
Tks
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explod
explod
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Will accept any opinions or comments as such. And don't guarantee to act on it!!
Tks
I would only buy on a stronger gold price. Gold to breach $US1,000 and LGL to $3.50 on strong volume with a 5% stop loss.
DennisTheTrader
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Hi All
I actually traded this one going down just this week and got over 50% ROI. I exited because I thought it could meet some support at around $3.00.
If this was to continue down to the uptrend line, and then bounces off it, I may enter a trade with a bullish view.
...Just my 2 cents
I actually traded this one going down just this week and got over 50% ROI. I exited because I thought it could meet some support at around $3.00.
If this was to continue down to the uptrend line, and then bounces off it, I may enter a trade with a bullish view.
...Just my 2 cents
Sean K
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Cripes,
LGL quarterly does not include a downgrade!! Whoooohoooo! Miracles do happen.
Disappointing to me, no upgrade to the overall resource but they will be in a position to provide a substancial one in the coming years. WTF? Coming years?
Anyway, a nice change to the usual shortfalls.
Come one someone, where's the takeover I've been waiting for for 5 years?
Lihir Gold's output rises 27pc
July 30, 2008
LIHIR Gold has reported a 27 per cent rise in second quarter gold production compared to the previous quarter, putting it on track to meet its full year production guidance.
The Papua New Guinean-focused miner, which completed a merger with Equigold NL on June 17, said production rose to 177,000 ounces in the six months to June 30, taking production for the half year to 316,000oz.
Lihir said group production in calendar 2008 was expected to be over 850,000oz, in line with previous guidance.
Managing director Arthur Hood said the merger with Equigold would help Lihir meet its annual production guidance.
"The successful completion of the merger with Equigold firmly establishes a strong growth platform for Lihir as the ongoing transformation of the company continues,'' Mr Hood said.
LGL quarterly does not include a downgrade!! Whoooohoooo! Miracles do happen.
Disappointing to me, no upgrade to the overall resource but they will be in a position to provide a substancial one in the coming years. WTF? Coming years?
Anyway, a nice change to the usual shortfalls.
Come one someone, where's the takeover I've been waiting for for 5 years?
Lihir Gold's output rises 27pc
July 30, 2008
LIHIR Gold has reported a 27 per cent rise in second quarter gold production compared to the previous quarter, putting it on track to meet its full year production guidance.
The Papua New Guinean-focused miner, which completed a merger with Equigold NL on June 17, said production rose to 177,000 ounces in the six months to June 30, taking production for the half year to 316,000oz.
Lihir said group production in calendar 2008 was expected to be over 850,000oz, in line with previous guidance.
Managing director Arthur Hood said the merger with Equigold would help Lihir meet its annual production guidance.
"The successful completion of the merger with Equigold firmly establishes a strong growth platform for Lihir as the ongoing transformation of the company continues,'' Mr Hood said.
Stock down over 20% since 14th July. Production report in line with expectation. Recent acquisitions bedded down. Hedge book closed. Resource upgrade in the wings. Gold still above $900/Oz. (Last time LGL traded at these levels gold was approx $630/Oz - US$ .79)
Any ideas why LGL is trading at these levels? Many analysts have it as a buy. (Macq/UBS just to name 2).
LGL has broken 2.74 support line. Where to from here?
Is it a screaming buy at these levels?
Any ideas why LGL is trading at these levels? Many analysts have it as a buy. (Macq/UBS just to name 2).
LGL has broken 2.74 support line. Where to from here?
Is it a screaming buy at these levels?
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