LGL - Lihir Gold

Sean K · 14 December 2007

I think it's a knee jerk to the downgrade.

Been punished a bit too much perhaps.

Expecting support around old all time highs to hold, but with POG vulnerable, maybe not.

VViCKiD · 14 December 2007

Hi Kennas, what would you consider "old all time highs" ?
Macquarie Bank apparantly had a price target of $.80 some time ago.
I wonder if that target still stands. Any comments ?

Sean K · 14 December 2007

VViCKiD said:
Hi Kennas, what would you consider "old all time highs" ?
Macquarie Bank apparantly had a price target of $.80 some time ago.
I wonder if that target still stands. Any comments ?

Should be support around the blue line which was old all time highs. 80 cents? Golly. They must be expecting POG to go back to $200. LGL is riding POG, and if it continues to climb then so will LGL. The Fed will cut rates again and again it seems which will put further pressure on USD supporting POG. Oil isn't going down too much any time soon so inflation will continue on up. World gold output is shrinking and the Indians and Chinese are going to keep buying more as their economies get out of the ice age. All adds up to increased POG/LGL. If LGL get down under $3 again, I wouldn't be surprised if they will have to announce that Newcrest, Newmont, Anglo, Goldcorp, or Barrick have become substantial holders....

thevadd · 14 December 2007

Hi Kennas

Could you pl explain what is POG ? what is the ratio POG/LGL ? Sorry I am a newbie

Thanks

Sean K · 14 December 2007

thevadd said:
Hi Kennas

Could you pl explain what is POG ? what is the ratio POG/LGL ? Sorry I am a newbie

Thanks

Sorry.

Price Of Gold = POG.

Price Of Oil = POO.

Price of Uranium = POU

Make up any others you like!

There is no ratio as such, just that LGL as a pure gold play and now unhedged will follow POG to a large extent, along with the general market.

VViCKiD · 14 December 2007

Wow.. looks like the price of LGL has really broken below support lines ?
Any one thinking this is the beginning of a major retreat ??

Uncle Festivus · 14 December 2007

Not sure, small production downgrade, looking to better figures in the future.

What's the old saying - buy when there's blood in the streets.

Down 7% today, solid support at 345, time to top up position?

So_Cynical · 14 December 2007

VViCKiD said:
Wow.. looks like the price of LGL has really broken below support lines ?
Any one thinking this is the beginning of a major retreat ??

I would like to think no..but its all about POG...IMO its top up time
cept im 100% commited

Was thinking today that LGL must be close to the biggest unhedged gold producer in the world...im assuming
Newcrest, Newmont, Anglo, Goldcorp, and Barrick are all to big to unhedge.

rederob · 14 December 2007

Uncle Festivus said:
Not sure, small production downgrade, looking to better figures in the future.

What's the old saying - buy when there's blood in the streets.

Down 7% today, solid support at 345, time to top up position?

3-year log chart has support pegged under $3.30.
I have bid 2.5k at $3.35 and will slide that down if POG dips badly tonight.
Otherwise, LGL is oversold and in bargain territory again.

chops_a_must · 15 December 2007

rederob said:
3-year log chart has support pegged under $3.30.
I have bid 2.5k at $3.35 and will slide that down if POG dips badly tonight.
Otherwise, LGL is oversold and in bargain territory again.

I'm looking for this to fill the gap around 3.20, and that's what I'll be hunting. If you are right red, and there is strong support in that area, it has the potential for a very good two way trade here. But if someone like waves is right, and this is the end of a W5 pattern, it could continue much lower.

I still think, this is without doubt the best exposure to gold over the long term you can get in Australia.

barrett · 15 December 2007

I agree that this is the premium Aust-listed gold exposure. But in terms of portfolio allocation, a point to keep in mind is that their main activity is operating a gold mine inside a not-quite-extinct volcano, below sea level on a remote island, in a failed state!
I'm making them sound bad. LGL is still my biggest gold holding even though I also buy the Canadian-listed golds. Production increasing, costs declining, massive resource, well undervalued on mcap/resources, mcap/reserves. I wouldn't put like, more than 10% of my portfolio into them though.

They probably will go to $3.20 or below in coming weeks given the weakness in the gold sector. At that price or below they would be a great long-term buy IMO. But LGL tends to rebound quickly - and ahead of the other gold stocks - so for those looking to buy, to catch them at the lows I would be inclined to place stink bids on days when gold is getting hammered. GLTA -Barrett

Sean K · 16 December 2007

rederob said:
3-year log chart has support pegged under $3.30.

chops_a_must said:
I'm looking for this to fill the gap around 3.20, and that's what I'll be hunting.

Yes, I would like to add another blue line to my chart above at $3.25 which was super resistance over the past year. Should be a good opportunity around these levels I reckon, although I'm already holding too many probably. Wouldn't want Lihir to erupt as alluded to above.

Uncle Festivus · 17 December 2007

There goes your 325 Kennas. Topping up at these levels, gold prices still holding, but rest of market taking a (blood) bath!

On fundamentals alone, LGL now oversold, even with short term production downgrade?

So_Cynical · 17 December 2007

Never thought i would see LGL fall so hard with POG holding so well.:asdf:

even with the prod downgrade...Its amazing really.

Nyden · 17 December 2007

So_Cynical said:
Never thought i would see LGL fall so hard with POG holding so well.:asdf:

even with the prod downgrade...Its amazing really.

I'm just glad I didn't buy in on Friday, just ouch
This has really been hit hard last 2 sessions, I think I'll keep my remainding cash in the ING account!

I would think in such a market, gold/gold stocks would be doing very well...odd times.

barrett · 18 December 2007

With that huge reversal today - I suspect the intra-day low of $2.94 today will be 'the bottom' for LGL.

The HUI gold stock index last night reached the 0.5 retracement point of its Aug-Oct rally - off this level we may get a bounce in the gold sector in general now, given that the negative sentiment on the gold stocks seems.. a bit overdone relative to the fundamentals.

explod · 18 December 2007

barrett said:
With that huge reversal today - I suspect the intra-day low of $2.94 today will be 'the bottom' for LGL.

The HUI gold stock index last night reached the 0.5 retracement point of its Aug-Oct rally - off this level we may get a bounce in the gold sector in general now, given that the negative sentiment on the gold stocks seems.. a bit overdone relative to the fundamentals.

I agree but we need to see a s/p rise from this reverse hammer to confirm and a jump in the gold price (which I expect) will assist. Plenty of buying came in at the close too.

Interesting and testing times

Uncle Festivus · 18 December 2007

All I can say is that I've been waiting a while for today & loaded the truck up with LGL all the way to the bottom. After all, we're talking a 34% retracement from the very recent highs for this stock, even discounting the minor downgrade with gold holding it's ground.

As per gold thread, a bottom in POG maybe close at hand (or at least a decisive break out, up or down within the next 3 weeks?), so a tentative bullish stance, subject to the general market not throwing another hissy fit.

explod · 20 December 2007

Uncle Festivus said:
All I can say is that I've been waiting a while for today & loaded the truck up with LGL all the way to the bottom. After all, we're talking a 34% retracement from the very recent highs for this stock, even discounting the minor downgrade with gold holding it's ground.

As per gold thread, a bottom in POG maybe close at hand (or at least a decisive break out, up or down within the next 3 weeks?), so a tentative bullish stance, subject to the general market not throwing another hissy fit.

Could not agree more. Well undersold. The reversal was confimed on the chart for me today and pleased to back on this one. Having said that I have always been a bit tentative of this one due to its location near to earth faults and soverign risk. P/N seem to be playing the game well at the moment. Just my 2 cents.

Sean K · 15 February 2008

explod said:
Could not agree more. Well undersold. The reversal was confimed on the chart for me today

Yep, it well reversed and I picked up a few more on this, but it's come back down quite considerably. Where's that bloody takeover!

Come on NCM and LGL, hold hands!! Would solve some of both your problems.

1. sovereign risk
2. high cash costs
3. one or two deposit risk
4. limited exploration upside
5. one of you will be taken by a foreigner soon, stay Australian!
6. newcrest lihir gold (NLG) has a ring to it..

LGL coiling a bit, but looks more descending to me.

How about an upgrade for a change!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LGL - Lihir Gold

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