LGL - Lihir Gold

[Whiskers]

More spinning top than a doji, indicating indecision, more than reversal. They both need follow on action for confirmation of trend reversal. Likely to get a clue one way or the other tonight. If rates are lowered .50 then I think it will continue up. If rates are on hold, POG will come off. If dropped .25, could go either way, but probably come off. I think .25 drop is definately factored in, .50 less so. Just as a pluck.

Thanks for that Kennas. I was so focused on the days action that I didn't notice the high tail on the day before. By close time it was certainly more like a spinning top.

Anyway. I decided to hold yesterday, and had to go out all morning and I had the finger on the sell button when it hit $3.83/4 late today, while switching across to see what the gold price was doing, but in the end decided to hold.

Just on a gut feeling that the gold price will hold tonight, and the inevetable correction the day after... or was that just a lack of courage to take the profit!

Thanks also phoenixXx and Chops for your input. I'll be watching close with the finger ready on the sell button in the morning.

 

[Sean K]

But for long term, who knows it could reach $20 as you said. Picture this as NCM

LOL, I was joking Phoenix. Perhaps I should have put a bigger smilie with a wink. This is trading at a massive pe already, at $20 it would be insane. Most extravegant takeover offer wouldn't be much more than $5.30 IMO. Unless POG goes to $2000++!

 

[So_Cynical]

Theres a lot of LGL shares changing hands today and a nice % jump in price...anyone know why.

Is it time to bail...im feeling greedy.

 

[SGB]

Is it time to bail...im feeling greedy.

Nice call S_C I had that same feeling this morning and bailed out on open due to over reaching my planned target.

Good luck

SGB

 

[Sean K]

Theres a lot of LGL shares changing hands today and a nice % jump in price...anyone know why.

Is it time to bail...im feeling greedy.

I thought about taking a few off today, but greed probably got the better of me. It will crash now....

The last $1.00 rise has been spectacular, and I thought the break through $3.25 was the trigger, but was linked to POG cracking $690. I reckon the rise has been: 60% due to POG. 20% for being unhedged. 10% TXS listing and 10% takeover premium.

 

[reece55]

I thought about taking a few off today, but greed probably got the better of me. It will crash now....

The last $1.00 rise has been spectacular, and I thought the break through $3.25 was the trigger, but was linked to POG cracking $690. I reckon the rise has been: 60% due to POG. 20% for being unhedged. 10% TXS listing and 10% takeover premium.

It's looking very nice from where I sit Kennas, uncharted territory......

The pent up pressure in this one prior to 7 Sept really illustrates why statistically speaking, stocks are only trending 10 - 20% of the time..... I'm just wondering when it's going to retrace.... Any wave counts here?????? IV presently 50% at the moment in this one - from about 25%..... Great for stock/warrant/option holders alike!

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Any wave counts here?????? IV presently 50% at the moment in this one - from about 25%..... Great for stock/warrant/option holders alike!

Cheers

Yes, uncharted territory which is of course lovely to see after hanging in there over the past 15 months. It's pe must be cracking 100 now which concerns me a little. It may be getting out of reach for an initial takeover approach too....

Let's say it's a wave 1 of 5 wave up.

 

[So_Cynical]

Volume of 20+ mill today and the price only eased a little...thats good right.

Any1 want to guess why the big volumes the last 2 days.?

 

[SGB]

Volume of 20+ mill today and the price only eased a little...thats good right.

Any1 want to guess why the big volumes the last 2 days.?

Hi S_C

I'll have a stab at it.

Yesterday LGL in open sky.
Today Gold currently down $11.00 as I type. In fact its been down most of the day. Interesting to see how it ends when I awake in the wee hours.

SGB

 

[bean]

Is this another that may have formed a nice head and shoulders ???

As you may gather I am short term bearish on POG

 

[Sean K]

Is this another that may have formed a nice head and shoulders ???

As you may gather I am short term bearish on POG

No, it's not a H&S yet bean. Can you put a chart up to show me yours and then I'll show you mine.

'Bearish' as in it's going to consolidate, or fall back through $690 ish support?

 

[the barry]

Haven't posted on the old lgl for a while. Tsx listing and unhedging its position has done this wonders. Is today an all time closing high?

 

[explod]

Haven't posted on the old lgl for a while. Tsx listing and unhedging its position has done this wonders. Is today an all time closing high?

Yes this it it. Interesting in the Financial Review they were talking about Lihir and Newcrest and report that they are good but running costs particularly fuel would take the shine off. They seem to forget Lihir has its own thermal power plant which is saving heaps. LGL I love ya.

 

[So_Cynical]

Is today an all time closing high?

Was thinking the same thing myself and assumed it was.

I'm so glad im holding LGL. Ive been tempted to sell over the last
few weeks...new highs etc, but deep down i know it would be crazy
to sell with the POG below 1000 USD/AUD.

 

[Sean K]

Is this another that may have formed a nice head and shoulders ???

As you may gather I am short term bearish on POG

Came out with a downgrade and has underperformed POG quite a bit the past few weeks.

I'm see a ascending triangle, although being a long term holder, I may be misled...

If it hasn't been able to run away here, then not sure what will drive it? Probably only takeover, or speculation of.

Concerned now that the inevitable POG correction (one day) will be poor for the sp....

Technically though, that triangle is looking probable...

 

[So_Cynical]

Quote linkhttp://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22781793-661,00.html
SUCCESSFUL rescue operation has freed 27 miners after a mine collapse near Ballarat this morning. All workers initially trapped are now safe and well on the surface.

The mine is owned by Lihir Gold Limited. The company is expected to issue a statement this morning.

So any idea how big the hit on Lihir will be today?

 

[chewy]

I think LGL had a green day. As far as I know this mine is tiny compared to the amount they mine at PNG - so it may not really effect them.

 

[So_Cynical]

Im amazed...Lihir have major "event" at there second mine..makes
national news and will result in some lost production..and there SP goes up.

Just amazing.

 

[Arturius]

I'm thinking seriously about a short on Lihir, there's a strong head and shoulders pattern, plus the volume numbers seem to indicator more aggressive sellers then buyers. It looks like a very strong short opportunity for a swing trade.

 

[chewy]

I'm thinking seriously about a short on Lihir, there's a strong head and shoulders pattern, plus the volume numbers seem to indicator more aggressive sellers then buyers. It looks like a very strong short opportunity for a swing trade.

I'm thinking that could be a good way to lose money...Gold and Lihir both look strong imo