LAF - Lafayette Mining

[ta2693]

I agree with you all it has a large and valuable resource deposit. But I do not like it. It is located in a place which could be hit by Typhoon. whatif there is another typhoon in the future and make LAF suffering? whatif they just signed a supply contract with customer and hit by a Typhoon which make LAF unable to fulfill the contract on time?
If all risk take into account, I think 6c for LAF is pretty fair value.

 

[hangseng]

I agree with you all it has a large and valuable resource deposit. But I do not like it. It is located in a place which could be hit by Typhoon. whatif there is another typhoon in the future and make LAF suffering? whatif they just signed a supply contract with customer and hit by a Typhoon which make LAF unable to fulfill the contract on time?
If all risk take into account, I think 6c for LAF is pretty fair value.

Perspective:
2005 - 17 Tropical cyclones recorded in the region. Of that only 7 actually came across the Phillipines and of those only 2 were capable of causing damage and only 1 actually did on the Northern Island.

"In the case of tropical cyclones, no significant trend in the number of cyclones forming in or entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the past 58 years (1948-2005)."

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/statfram.htm

There is no doubt the Phillippines experience a lot of cyclones. However the likelihood of a super typhoon striking exactly the same position year after year is extremely low. Based on your assumption of risk the Pilbara in WA, in fact the whole northern region of Australia should consider moving south.

Also the reconstruction of the mine and plant would take into account stronger design. In fact the plant faired reasonably well as did the environmental containment considering they experienced a direct hit of one of the biggest typhoons ever recorded.

No more risk than operating Nelson Point, Cape Lambert or Dampier.

 

[lazydays]

Some good photos of the typhoon damage here
http://www.lafayettemining.com/documents/Shareholders EGM-080607.pdf
And don't forget this little titbit from yesterdays meeting..

To this end, we have a number of initiatives in train that
if successful, will deliver benefits to all equity holders.
I am not in a position to discuss these initiatives at this
time other than to say, that my team is fully engaged and
fully focused on the task ahead.

 

[hangseng]

Some good photos of the typhoon damage here
http://www.lafayettemining.com/documents/Shareholders EGM-080607.pdf
And don't forget this little titbit from yesterdays meeting..

To this end, we have a number of initiatives in train that
if successful, will deliver benefits to all equity holders.
I am not in a position to discuss these initiatives at this
time other than to say, that my team is fully engaged and
fully focused on the task ahead.

Big things ahead. Clearly not out of the woods yet but LAF is getting very close to a positive turnaround. The titbit being a clue to to the next positive signal of information we should be all looking out for.

I am quite interested in LAF now.

 

[Mofra]

I am quite interested in LAF now.

To be honest I am interested in LAF again, given the first shipments of Copper & Zinc have been completed. They are producing now (albeit on a small scale); I would suggest that given their recent history the market would be waiting for some of the production to impact on their end of quarter figures before making any significant price advancement. Compared to a few other minor players, there will still be a higher risk cost factored in (regardless of the likelyhood of another typhoon or not).

 

[ta2693]

If LAF is as promising as some ppl believe here, why only 28% of shareholder took the "opportunity" to buy at 0.07 cents?
The top three biggest holder are holding 35.97% of LAF shares
That means even if the 28% all from them, there is still 8% shortage of participating. My explanation is even the insiders believe LAF should be valued at less 7c a share.

 

[Bohaty]

Hi guys,
Been holding this one for some time, yet as soon as good news seems to
be just around the corner to lift its SP it comes crashing down to earth.

LAF has massive potential, however not only do Super typhoons
create problems (Laf have made numerous upgrades to withstand these
typhoons) but also the locals who have a negative view towards the company.
The apparent spill of chemicals into the surrounding sea a year or so ago, has
made the locals trust towards the company falter, with the local bishops heading a very negative campaign against the company and calling for its closure. Without the government to intervene and stand by LAF and mining in the Philippines in general, LAF's future might look very glim.

LAF is trying to win the support of the locals and until it can it will find it very hard to win investors confidence who ultimately determine the SP which at present is extremely low and oversold. However as soon as confidence in people is regained, and less typhoons LAF sp may finally take the road north.

 

[camaybay]

TA 2693 thankyou for your revalulation of the SP by 16%. Reoccurrance of natural disasters:- cyclone Tracey hit Darwin 30 years ago, nothing since to worry about; there are typhoon statistics on the web site. As for the mercury in the local fishery, read the reports. At last, after obstacles there seems to be a window of prosperity ahead.
DYOR

 

[binstrokein]

Hello All,

It has been pleasing to have a long period of time, by Laf standards, without the company being in the newspapers. With Typhoons, Catholic Bishops, Greenpeace, and dubious information being reported in the press, everything has been thrown at this one. No news has been good news.

 

[alphman]

If LAF is as promising as some ppl believe here, why only 28% of shareholder took the "opportunity" to buy at 0.07 cents?
The top three biggest holder are holding 35.97% of LAF shares
That means even if the 28% all from them, there is still 8% shortage of participating. My explanation is even the insiders believe LAF should be valued at less 7c a share.

Hmm...Lion Selection didn't even take a crumb, let alone a piece of the pie (Form 604, 12/06/07). Not good news for this little battler....dropped another 6%. When will it find some support?? :dunno:

 

[ta2693]

I think it would probably fall to 6c. but I have taken a small position today. I think although the probability of falling is high, but there is not too much room to fall. to the contrary, the probability of up is low, but the room is very significant.

I will keep on building my position on this one on the range of 6c.

besides there is a words in presentation which trigger my intention to buy. "To this end, we have a number of initiatives in train that
if successful, will deliver benefits to all equity holders."

 

[motion]

ta2693, I think you are right I have bought into again today as well I do not se it moving much lower than 6c but maybe I'm wrong.... I think this company has alot to offer long term and now is a good time to gather move if your own research leads you to buying.... anyway this is a put in the draw stock...IMO...

 

[ta2693]

it seems some big boy want to go out at whatever cost. Not a good sign for me.
the buyer is very weak and small. I stare at 1500000 sell order at 6c and ask my self. does he really want to out? after I give it some small bite, it still there. I think his intention must be true. as long as the guy is there, the price will continue goes down in short term( 3 days)

 

[motion]

it seems some big boy want to go out at whatever cost. Not a good sign for me.
the buyer is very weak and small. I stare at 1500000 sell order at 6c and ask my self. does he really want to out? after I give it some small bite, it still there. I think his intention must be true. as long as the guy is there, the price will continue goes down in short term( 3 days)

Yep I can understand where you are coming from ta2693 I have other shares like this... But I think LAF has some good projects and u can see they are chomping at this large amount which shows people out there have support for this company at the moment... I think LAF will bounce back but it's just a matter of time....

 

[Bohaty]

Here is some news about lafayette mining just in and as i pointed out previously
its not super typhoons that are poising problems, its the local population,
hence a drop in sp yet again. Without the philippine government's support, Lafayette is hanging on by a thread.

Last Updated 12/06/2007 8:48:50 PM

PHILIPPINES: Villagers lobby for closure of Australian mine
An elder from the remote Philippine island of Rapu Rapu has made his way to Melbourne to call on the Australian firm Lafayette to halt its mining operations. Antonio Mingoy Casitas has brought a petition signed by 3,000 fellow islanders demanding that the mine be shut down; they say it's polluted nearby land and waterways, and is causing widespread health problems.

Read all about it.
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/asiapac/programs/s1949409.htm

 

[motion]

Here is some news about lafayette mining just in and as i pointed out previously
its not super typhoons that are poising problems, its the local population,
hence a drop in sp yet again. Without the philippine government's support, Lafayette is hanging on by a thread.

Last Updated 12/06/2007 8:48:50 PM

PHILIPPINES: Villagers lobby for closure of Australian mine
An elder from the remote Philippine island of Rapu Rapu has made his way to Melbourne to call on the Australian firm Lafayette to halt its mining operations. Antonio Mingoy Casitas has brought a petition signed by 3,000 fellow islanders demanding that the mine be shut down; they say it's polluted nearby land and waterways, and is causing widespread health problems.

Read all about it.
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/asiapac/programs/s1949409.htm

Thanks Bohaty -- dam we are always the last one to know.... Not sure what to do now....This is a big hit for LAF ...DYOR

 

[ta2693]

I think it is really not a big problem.
every factory has pollution issue. LAF just needs right person to deal with the provoked mob. And I find LAF got the ex-minister to help them. So I think there are at 30% chance this problem will be solved. if the ex-minister can not persuade the mob, LAF still got the government backup, so there are 30% chance, LAF can ignore the mob and build the factory. In a corrupted country, everything is possible, as long as LAF got the right person and pay the right money even if the factory will cause heavy pollution.

 

[hangseng]

I think it is really not a big problem.
every factory has pollution issue. LAF just needs right person to deal with the provoked mob. And I find LAF got the ex-minister to help them. So I think there are at 30% chance this problem will be solved. if the ex-minister can not persuade the mob, LAF still got the government backup, so there are 30% chance, LAF can ignore the mob and build the factory. In a corrupted country, everything is possible, as long as LAF got the right person and pay the right money even if the factory will cause heavy pollution.

The fact is they have not caused heavy pollution. A proven fact.

I smell Greenpeace lobby brownie points here and I believe they will get government support or the Phillipines can kiss development by overseas companies goodbye and there economy along with it.

I place LAF at 90% chance of getting through this. Money talks.

 

[Mofra]

I place LAF at 90% chance of getting through this. Money talks.

In this case, money & power... like having government ministers on your side.

I would think there are a few people scared of putting their money in at this stage, and waiting for further clarity. Once the situation is sorted with a more iron-clad agreement, the company should start to be valued more aligned to its fundamentals; given it should be producing more significant amounts shortly, certainly one for the watchlists.

 

[binstrokein]

Thanks for the information. In essence there appears to be nothing new here, but it does explain the weakness in the price. We are not dealing in facts here; we are dealing with continued deception. Some people have an interest in keeping people poor and uneducated, it enables them to have influence and power that they would not otherwise have.