Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LAF - Lafayette Mining

Foreign firms keen on Lafayette mine - LATEST NEWS!!!

LATEST NEWS!!! Lets see how the market reacts to ninemsn post.....

Foreign firms keen on Lafayette mine
Thursday Sep 7 20:01 AEST
Three foreign firms are interested in investing in the Philippine gold and copper mine of Australia's Lafayette Mining Ltd if Manila allows it to reopen, the company's lawyer said.

The Lafayette project on Rapu Rapu island, one of 24 being promoted by the government to revive the country's once-mighty mining sector, suspended operations three months after pouring its first gold in July 2005 due to two cyanide spills.

The government allowed the mine to conduct a test run from July 10. That was supposed to end on September 9 but lawyer Bayani Agabin said Lafayette had asked for a 60-day extension.

"If things work out properly, we hope to get a permanent listing order," Agabin told Reuters on the sidelines of a plant tour on the remote island southeast of Manila.







He said prospective investors included firms from Singapore, Australia and Canada but declined to identify them. Agabin said officials from the three firms had visited the Rapu Rapu mine.

"The discussions are still very general at this stage," he said.

Rapu Rapu has completed the first two phases of the test run - a five-day water test and a nine-day water and rock test. The third phase, which simulates actual operations using ore and chemicals, should end on Saturday.

"It will be easier to convince the public that we are compliant with standards if we hold more test runs on our pollution facilities," Agabin said.

Officials from the Mining and Geosciences Bureau said the extension would also enable Lafayette to debug its new base metals plant before it begins commercial operations.

"As far as the technical merit of the 60-day expansion is concerned, we see no problem with it," said Michael Cabalda, head of the bureau's Mining Environment and Safety Division.

Environmentalists and some influential Catholic bishops have opposed a Philippine law allowing for 100 per cent foreign ownership of mines.

Before the suspension, Lafayette was forecast to generate revenues of $US350 million ($A457.07 million) a year from production of 10,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, 14,000 tonnes of zinc, 50,000 ounces of gold and 600,000 ounces of silver.

In June, Lafayette paid a fine of 10.4 million pesos ($A270,323.21) imposed by the Philippine government after the spills at the mine.

South Korea's LG Co International Ltd and the South Korean government's resources investment arm KORES together hold 26 per cent of Lafayette Philippines Inc.

The rest is owned by the Australian company.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyone holding LAF? What are your thoughts?
 
I think LAF will be cruelled by its hedge book.
If it's not restructured quickly a lot of moola will be needed to keep Rapu Rapu rapping.
 
i bought into LAF on friday @ 10.5 cents, i see that there are a lot of sellers who got burnt on this one so i expect the price rise to be very slow ,but it should be a good long term hold
 
and also
LAF expect $350 mill per year sales from
10,000tonns of copper concertrate
14,000tonns zink
50,000 ounces gold
600,000 ounces silver.
 
The Typhoon hit at the wrong time for Lafayette. Just when it looked like things were finally about to take off, bam. Anyway, I'm still gonna keep watching this one. There plenty of potential there, it just needs to stop running into set backs.

Once operations restart (approx 6 weeks, from the announcement), they are expecting to make their first shipment of concetrate about a month later. So this might start it's run around January/February (without any more delays).
 
It made its move yesterday, just as I predicted 2 months ago. Plenty of pull-back today though. I wouldn't expect this one to hold it's value, more likely to rise on announcements and then slowly fall until the next one. That's assuming all of the bad announcements are in the past and won't be back to haunt it.
 
Share price consolidated Fri, and probably will again tommorrow.
I have small holding and will look to increase if it gets to 10c or below.

LAF POSITIVES.
Typhoon season almost over.
Production starting again and amounts will only increase as year goes on.
Good polymetallic resource with potential for upgrades.
Mgmt have put in alot of effort to get em back on track.
Very cheap producer and low transporting costs.
Dogged by long term bad luck.Hopefully the "voodoo doll" has been put to rest for good.
Phillipines Govt want them producing.
Daytraders who bought on pending positive news will almost all be out by now.

LAF NEGATIVES.
The dilution factor after raising $$$ to pay for hedging issues, and the unexpected(typhoon) causing further delays/extra costs.
Their past may hinder their s.p progress.
Alot of people who bought in 04/05/06 are sitting on up to a 50% loss.Alot will sell as s.p. increases, further thwarting s.p. progress.
No news yet on insurance issues.


Give this stock 6 months of unhindered production and where will the share price be.
My guess is alot higher then the current 11c/share
 
stretch said:
Share price consolidated Fri, and probably will again tommorrow.
I have small holding and will look to increase if it gets to 10c or below.

LAF POSITIVES.
Typhoon season almost over.
Production starting again and amounts will only increase as year goes on.
Good polymetallic resource with potential for upgrades.
Mgmt have put in alot of effort to get em back on track.
Very cheap producer and low transporting costs.
Dogged by long term bad luck.Hopefully the "voodoo doll" has been put to rest for good.
Phillipines Govt want them producing.
Daytraders who bought on pending positive news will almost all be out by now.
Give this stock 6 months of unhindered production and where will the share price be.
My guess is alot higher then the current 11c/share

Just got in at $0.115 for 100000, will buy more if it gets to 10c or below,I will hold it for long time, LAF doing right things now. thank you.

Angela :)
 
stretch said:
Share price consolidated Fri, and probably will again tommorrow.
I have small holding and will look to increase if it gets to 10c or below.

LAF POSITIVES.
Typhoon season almost over.
Production starting again and amounts will only increase as year goes on.
Good polymetallic resource with potential for upgrades.
Mgmt have put in alot of effort to get em back on track.
Very cheap producer and low transporting costs.
Dogged by long term bad luck.Hopefully the "voodoo doll" has been put to rest for good.
Phillipines Govt want them producing.
Daytraders who bought on pending positive news will almost all be out by now.

LAF NEGATIVES.
The dilution factor after raising $$$ to pay for hedging issues, and the unexpected(typhoon) causing further delays/extra costs.
Their past may hinder their s.p progress.
Alot of people who bought in 04/05/06 are sitting on up to a 50% loss.Alot will sell as s.p. increases, further thwarting s.p. progress.
No news yet on insurance issues.


Give this stock 6 months of unhindered production and where will the share price be.
My guess is alot higher then the current 11c/share

I have sent email to LAF, they look like they're back on track, I have topped up 400000 at $0.098 :)

Hi Angela

Unfortunately, I do not have any recent photos of the project. Our staff have taken many during our construction phases and a selection of those is available on the website under Investor Relations / Photo Gallery. I did have a lot of very good photos taken on my last visit and a good selection of those is available in our 2006 Annual Report. You would have received a copy of that prior to our AGM in November. If you need any additional copies, please let me know and I will have them mailed to you. Unfortunately, individual photos are too large to email.

Now that we have been granted our Permanent Lifting Order and we are back into base metals production, we will certainly be taking more photos and I will update the photo gallery from time to time. We have regular visits to the site and whilst there is not always time to take photos, I try to keep a history of our progress.

Regards

Kay Donehue

Lafayette Mining Limited

www.lafayettemining.com
 
Hey,

I see this stock is really not going anywhere but I'm interested in buying... anyway got any thoughts on this stock in todays market ?

thanks
 
Hey,

I see this stock is really not going anywhere but I'm interested in buying... anyway got any thoughts on this stock in todays market ?

thanks

There is a current share offer @ 0.07, extended to close 30/4/07. I would like to see some movement in this share price otherwise there is no point in the offer to raise capital.
The company has developed the infrastructure and has had bad climatic adversities. They need a break. (so do I). Check their web site. Good prospects at rock bottom price, but but but!!! some good fortune is needed.
IMHO
DYOR
 

Attachments

  • laf_ax09oct06_to_13apr07.png
    laf_ax09oct06_to_13apr07.png
    14.7 KB · Views: 193
LAF POSITIVES.
Typhoon season almost over....

This about the Philippines typhoon season from a surfing website.

"The typhoon season coincides with the wet season from mid-June to November, although there are occasional typhoons in December. The area of Aurora is visited by typhoons at least 3 or 4 times a year. The typhoons blow in from the Pacific brought by the South-West Monsoon, through the South China Sea."
------------------
Its a very long typhoon season and unseasonal typhoons happen. They also appear to be getting bigger and more frequent in recent years.
... This from wikipedia on the 2006 season.

I was in on LAF for a while but monster typhoons, greenpeace and greeny catholic ministers stirring up the locals scared me out of it at a loss.
I'd recommend finding a safer bet cause anything could happen on that little tropical isle.
(of course now I've said that it will head north!!!!!!;))
 
Talk this one down some more please. Up 9% on no news. I bought in at 7.3 cents and again at 7.5c so I'm hoping I picked this just right. Hopefully the production numbers and further exploration information is released soon to justify this rise.
 
hit 9c the other day.

Dropped back to low 8s again.

Seems volatile.

I bought at 7.7c.

Any thoughts on it's progress?:)
 
hit 9c the other day.

Dropped back to low 8s again.

Seems volatile.

I bought at 7.7c.

Any thoughts on it's progress?:)

LAF will turn positive very soon. They have done significant work to turn this situation around and June will see this stock strongly re-rated. I can't believe how oversold this has become and has definately caught my attention now.
 
Once the SAG mill re-line shutdown is complete (only 5 days), which includes some minor concentrate loading modifications, the through put of the plant will be increased to ~300t p/hr.

LAF has stood up extremely well to potential environmental difficulties and one of the largest typhoons ever in the region. No damage was sustained to critical environmental controls and LAF was given a final lifting order, so no impediment will exist to production.

First concentrate shipment has now occurred and a lot more to come.

LAF will turn cashflow positive in a very short timeframe now, providing production modifications prove effective. Understanding the modifications that are being implemented I see no reason, barrring an act of god, why LAF won't now succeed and finally become a successful producer short term.

Technically LAF has bounced of historical lows of .063 and has broken above long term support of .067. There is recent support at .076 and .085, confirmation of production will shortly place LAF above .085.

At the current sp, I will take a bigger position now with LAF. Especially after finding the resource isn't fully hedged and they are close to a resource upgrade.
 
With 850 mill shares out there can anybody work out a value on the shares.
Sales look like $350 mill /year with an 8 yr mine life that may be extended.

............thanks
 
With 850 mill shares out there can anybody work out a value on the shares.
Sales look like $350 mill /year with an 8 yr mine life that may be extended.

............thanks

ABN Amros has .10
They are conservative and placed a short term target without any consideration for further resource upgrade.
Key point:
"Once production is re-established, the hedge book will be re-structured
in line with a realistic production schedule." This is very close to occurring.

Grange has .21 (prior to problems encountered)
"We place a price target of A$0.21 per share based on initial reserves
and we anticipate substantial upside from exploration drilling at Hixbar
and other targets."
Grange also have considered (as I have) the exploration program could extend mine life to at least 10 years. The next round of extensions of the existing mine to be reported will be significant IMO with the massive sulphides encountered in recent drilling.

Both remain positive with LAF, as does the major share holder Lion Selection Group Limited who has in fact increased it's holding now from 13% to 18%.
 
am i missing something with LAF, i realise theve had some very very tough times and alot of bad luck plus there is alot shares issued but these guys are actually getting the stuff out of the ground and shipping it.
so why is the sp so low when your compare it to explorers such as AAR?
 
am i missing something with LAF, i realise theve had some very very tough times and alot of bad luck plus there is alot shares issued but these guys are actually getting the stuff out of the ground and shipping it.
so why is the sp so low when your compare it to explorers such as AAR?

bruno, It is well known I very much like AAR however LAF will be back online and producing before AAR announces the completion of the Koongie Park PFS.

Once the LAF production is stable, which seems about 3-4 months away, they will quickly attend to the hedge book position and the sp will rise significantly. They have a large unhedged resource which is exposed to the increase in zinc prices, this will help considerably as will the gold production. Also LAF is very low cost production at ~.33c for all base metals. Compare this with some in Aus with ~.66c-.80c.

AAR still is excellent as a gold producer to this stage (with more to come), but they do have a way to go to become a base metal producer for Koongie Park. What AAR doesn't have is the debt position of LAF but in perspective LAF has financed the construction and commissioning of a base metals mine and plant. Add to that the difficulties experienced and you can see why the sp came down, although now oversold to a ridiculous level.

If AAR can get Koongie Park up and running quickly then you may find it overtake LAF by 2009/2010. This would have to be a dream run though.

If the process plant and loadout come up to design specifications then LAF could be in a very good financial position toward the end of 2007 to early 2008. As long as the damn typhoons stay away from them, that was just bad luck but it caused a load of damage and along with it long delays.

I have taken a position with LAF at the current lows (and again today) and will increase to a much larger position at any sign of positive movement. With AAR I already have a large position at this stage, although I did take some profit on the run up to .105.

Both have there own level of risk attached and both have significant upside.
 
Top