Labor's carbon tax lie

[IFocus]

Given that we're actually getting this tax and it is just a week away, some questions regarding what others think.

1. Do you think that a Coalition government would actually repeal the carbon tax? Or is the promise to do so simply politics that will never be implemented?

2. Is it likely that any major impacts will occur prior to the next election? By "major" I mean things like one or more large manufacturing operations actually closing, the closure of a coal-fired power station and/or commencement of construction of a direct replacement, work actually commencing to export brown coal or something like that? I don't mean that your bills simply go up etc, but I mean "big" effects that are for practical purposes irreversible?

Both are ultimately related to the same thing. Firstly, does the Coalition really intend removing the tax? And secondly, could they actually do so without already incurring effectively permanent costs (avoidance of which is the only real point of removing the tax)?

My own opinion is that yes, a Coalition government would remove the tax but also yes, there will be some impacts "set in stone" prior to the next election. Depending on what those impacts are, particularly if it involves closure of a major power station, reversing the tax could end up involving compensation being paid I would think.

Not directly related to these questions, but the lady 2 doors up from me doesn't seem too happy. She's on the pension and can only afford $100 per fortnight for power. That means she can't heat the bedroom during winter. Needless to say, she's not too happy.

I do know companies affected are making major changes to reduce power usage and emissions to reduce their exposure to the tax which wont make the headlines.

Coming from a life in mining and chemical manufacturing most here would not appreciate the massive wastage in industry and mining in particular from the sheer ignorance and laziness of management and the workforce.

 

[Julia]

Given that we're actually getting this tax and it is just a week away, some questions regarding what others think.

So much is unknown at this stage so I suppose we can only make a guess.

1. Do you think that a Coalition government would actually repeal the carbon tax? Or is the promise to do so simply politics that will never be implemented?

They will definitely repeal it. Their political survival depends on it. Mr Abbott is going to the election on this as his fundamental platform. It is what he has used to so successfully campaign against the government. He cannot possibly fail to do it when the government will be thrown out largely on the basis of their broken promise "There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead."

It may take a double dissolution election, probably will, given a defeated Labor will be unlikely to accept a repeal of the tax and the Greens certainly won't be co-operating.
We can just hope that via the double dissolution election the balance of power in the Senate changes as well.

2. Is it likely that any major impacts will occur prior to the next election? By "major" I mean things like one or more large manufacturing operations actually closing, the closure of a coal-fired power station and/or commencement of construction of a direct replacement, work actually commencing to export brown coal or something like that? I don't mean that your bills simply go up etc, but I mean "big" effects that are for practical purposes irreversible?

Hard to say, isn't it, but I'd say no. Not in that short time.

Both are ultimately related to the same thing. Firstly, does the Coalition really intend removing the tax? And secondly, could they actually do so without already incurring effectively permanent costs (avoidance of which is the only real point of removing the tax)?

The Coalition will also need to address the costs to the population of their own so called direct action policy.
If the world continues to waffle and avoid action on 'carbon pollution', I wouldn't be surprised to see the Coalition actually just scrap their policy on this also. I understand it's at least as expensive as the carbon tax.
So pretty difficult for Mr Abbott to justify removing the already entrenched carbon tax whilst inflicting similar impost on the electorate via his different scheme.

Not directly related to these questions, but the lady 2 doors up from me doesn't seem too happy. She's on the pension and can only afford $100 per fortnight for power. That means she can't heat the bedroom during winter. Needless to say, she's not too happy.

And she will be typical of much of the population. I'm not going to struggle to pay the extra but I still absolutely resent having to do so, given it's a pointless tax, introduced purely to satisfy the Greens' conditions for keeping Gillard in power.

 

[MrBurns]

And she will be typical of much of the population. I'm not going to struggle to pay the extra but I still absolutely resent having to do so, given it's a pointless tax, introduced purely to satisfy the Greens' conditions for keeping Gillard in power.

It's grass roots Labor supporters that will be hit hardest by this despite the wasteful handouts which will be spent on anything but electricity and gas.

Gillard will go down in history as a complete disaster for Labor and Australia.

 

[IFocus]

It's grass roots Labor supporters that will be hit hardest by this despite the wasteful handouts which will be spent on anything but electricity and gas.

Gillard will go down in history as a complete disaster for Labor and Australia.

Bit of a conflict in your statement there Mr Burns..........handouts.......hardest hit?

But your summery is correct polls are showing most have been brain washed they are getting stung even though they are getting 1/3 over compensated such is the power of 3 worded slogans.

 

[MrBurns]

Bit of a conflict in your statement there Mr Burns..........handouts.......hardest hit?

But your summery is correct polls are showing most have been brain washed they are getting stung even though they are getting 1/3 over compensated such is the power of 3 worded slogans.

You actually believe Gillard will give back more then she takes ?
How sweet, keep it up Labor relies on people like you.

 

[sptrawler]

Bit of a conflict in your statement there Mr Burns..........handouts.......hardest hit?

But your summery is correct polls are showing most have been brain washed they are getting stung even though they are getting 1/3 over compensated such is the power of 3 worded slogans.

They are getting compensated untill 2014, from what I have read.

 

[Smurf1976]

But your summery is correct polls are showing most have been brain washed they are getting stung even though they are getting 1/3 over compensated such is the power of 3 worded slogans.

How much compensation do I get for reduced overall economic growth?

How much compensation do people in towns where industries are wiped out get for the reduced value of their properties?

How much compensation do I get for any fall in the value of the Australian Dollar due to lost metals etc exports?

There seems to be a lot of talk about compensating people for electricity price rises but practically no mention about other effects.

I wouldn't have such a harsh view if this actually reduced CO2 emissions. But when you have Labor promoting brown coal exports from the very same mines which currently feed power stations they want to close, well then you know that the whole thing is an absolute scam. It's akin to getting volunteers to pick up rubbish, loading it onto a truck, then dumping the whole lot on the road just around the corner. A total farce.

Meanwhile, we've already sold off most of the gas we have to the point that it is now a reasonably scarce resource in this country. Even Rio Tinto says they can't get a long term supply contract because it just isn't there. Then we've got the looming liquid fuels crisis. Then we've got the inevitable reality that we'll have another drought sooner or later. Then there's the world economy on the ropes. Then....

 

[Julia]

+1 x 10.
Sorry, Rick.

 

[Calliope]

Today I received in the mail a letter from The Hon Warren Snowden M.P. Minister for Veterans' Affairs, headed "Extra Cash For You, and advising me that Julia had deposited $250 in my account. He says inter alia, "this advance is just a start - there is more to come." I have no idea why he is sending me this money, I am not a pensioner, so I can only assume that the money is an incentive to take a more lenient attitude to Julia and her Big Fat Lie.

In the same mail I received a notice from the Tax man of my Quarterly $1520 PAYG Supplementary tax instalment. This took the edge off my warm inner glow at Julia's kindness. However I will put her partial refund of my tax to a good cause with the help on my friend and adviser, Dan Murphy.

 

[Miss Hale]

Just watching one of those ads on TV last night, the handouts come across as a cynical vote grab, nothing more, nothing less. I know I've said it before but the contempt with which this government holds the Australian people is truly astonishing.

 

[joea]

Well I was listening to the radio today and it appears that a group of people in a town just south of Cairns are wondering when they will be getting a letter and the compensation.
They have contacted some MP'S from 3 parties and then the PM's office.
Guess what? The could not even get a answer.
It appears a section of the voters have missed out before as well.
So IMO if you do not check your bank balance, a lot of people will miss out.
joea

 

[Miss Hale]

Well I was listening to the radio today and it appears that a group of people in a town just south of Cairns are wondering when they will be getting a letter and the compensation.
They have contacted some MP'S from 3 parties and then the PM's office.
Guess what? The could not even get a answer.
It appears a section of the voters have missed out before as well.
So IMO if you do not check your bank balance, a lot of people will miss out.
joea

Why am I not surprised I suppose we'll be hearing next that dead people are recieving payouts just like the stimulus payments.

 

[joea]

It appears that after the 1st July an air conditioning service for a car will increase by $100.
I must say this would probably relate to the usage of gas.

The additional cost to the service of a car will be $300 per year.
Now I would assume this is based on a new car traveling a specific number of klms. a year,
and by the maintenance book.
The info. was not specific in details. i.e.24,000klm, serviced at each 12,000 klms. = 2 services.

I haul cane for a friend of mine during the sugar season. The harvester burns 400 litres of fuel a day.
Shortly I hope to compile some info on the costs of this farming business so people can understand how it
will affect a small business. fuel bill for the harvester and hauling equipment is up around $80,000.
Last year one small business that supports harvesting was paid $35,000 for instance.
get back later.
joea

 

[noco]

Combett keeps sprouting the cost of living affected by the carbon dioxide tax, opps sorry carbon price, will only be $3.30 per week.

Well, according to the link below and a quick calculation, it equates to $7.70 extra per week just for power alone without all the other extra cost adders which will be added to everything bought in the stores.

Service on my vehicle has gone up form last sevice by $70.00 which was exactly the same service as previously.

No doubt we will see more increases as this confounded carbon tax starts to bite.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/money...eveal-bill-surge/story-fn3hskur-1226411614679

 

[spooly74]

It appears that after the 1st July an air conditioning service for a car will increase by $100.
I must say this would probably relate to the usage of gas.

joea

Yep, it's not produced here!

Refridgerat gas to go from $98 a kilo to $395 a kilo from tomorrow.
Based on govt's own website calcs.
Leon Byner on 5aa released it yesterday.

The rest of the world must be pissing themselves.

 

[drsmith]

Refridgerat gas to go from $98 a kilo to $395 a kilo from tomorrow.
Based on govt's own website calcs.
Leon Byner on 5aa released it yesterday.

Is there a link ?

 

[Glen48]

I can buy a bottle of Freon for $ 80 no questions asked .. which I have.. to install an Air con without a licence in OZ is a 50 K fine ...here say wot???

 

[drsmith]

Is there a link ?

It took some searching, but I found it.

http://www.environment.gov.au/atmosphere/ozone/sgg/equivalentcarbonprice/calculator.html

As an example, according to the calculator, the carbon tax on 1kg of R410A is $39.68

The calculator is in Excel format.

Refridgerat gas to go from $98 a kilo to $395 a kilo from tomorrow.
Based on govt's own website calcs.
Leon Byner on 5aa released it yesterday.

According to the calculator, the carbon tax is applied when the gas is imported, not sold retail.

One would therefore assume that legally, sellers would have to exhaust existing supplies before passing on the cost of the carbon tax. That's not to say they won't try otherwise.

 

[Smurf1976]

Well here it is, we have a carbon tax now in place. Immediate impacts on the electricity industry over the past 20 minutes or so are as follows:

Vic - Generation has dropped about 12% in total since midnight and is still falling. This is from an already abnormally low level due to plant outages. Spot price is sitting around $80 (long term average is about $30, and at this time of night around $20 would be normal).

Tas - Supply to Victoria is at literally 100% of capacity northbound which is something that would normally only happen during a demand peak.

Other states - No major change in operations (apart from price) although NSW in particular is taking a bit of extra load from Vic. Price is sitting around $80 in SA, and in the $50 - $55 range for NSW and Qld.

Will post more info in due course, but that's how it is at the moment and I'll be going to bed soon - I'm actually sitting at home planning holidays but just had to see what's going on with this one....

 

[Smurf1976]

90 minutes into the tax and things are settling down somewhat. Main electricity generation changes now as follows:

Price = averaging $50.20 across the 5 states (Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA) which compares to $20.80 for the same system loading at a similar time early yesterday morning.

Vic - Generation is sharply lower, down about 20%.

Tas - Generation is sharply higher, up 28%. It would be even higher if not for the limit of transmission between Tas and Vic which is running at beyond firm capacity and to literally its' absolute limit. That will have to be reduced within a few hours to avoid overheating. Also generation can not be sustained at that level, since doing so would in due course drain the entire Hydro generation system (though it would take quite a while to do so given that storage is presently at 52.5%).

SA - Generation is about 4% higher.

NSW - Generation is 9% higher.

Qld - Generation is 2% lower.

Thus far, the short term operational effect is basically a drop in brown coal output in Vic as the main impact. Load has been transferred primarily to NSW and Tas, though the latter is operating at an output level unsustainable beyond a few hours.

The short term price impact is a 140% increase in the spot price.