KZL - Kagara Limited

[Kauri]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Kauri
Your forward view and your entry hurdles are quite alike.
As your entry hurdle is simply a forward view after the fact:

My current view is that it may have formed a bottom.
My forward view is dependant on entry hurdles being met/not met, therefore forward view depends on entry hurdles. As such, I don't hold a forward view, yet.
My original query was....

How do you recognise that the cycle low is locked in, without using hindsight??

also add to that query, how did you arrive at $5.00??

However, were I in the market for more zinc, I would have bought last week as it hit my "value" trigger last Tuesday at $5.

 

[barney]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

My apologies for that messy chart I posted. It was not meant to have all the B/Bands + MA's etc, so I have posted the "neat" version

 

[nizar]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Red,

Just curious where your stop is with this one?
You've just let it slip from about $7.80 to $5.00 in the last 2.5months, thats a fair bit of profit give back.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Value means nothing.
Future eps is a guessing game.

Share prices can go from undervalued to overvalued to even more overvalued. If you sold whenever true value was reached you would be missing out on big profits.

Also some share prices can stay undervalued for years and years.

You have to look at the TREND.

Each to his own, but my method has worked well FOR ME.

Warren Buffet i think once bought a company when every one was selling, it had been doing "badly" the share price. However in his view he thought it was undervalued in the future, so he bough the whoel company nearly. After a few years the company did really well etc

You mention missing out profits, but its better than losing money!, Ifs its truly "overvalued" then price will evenutally fall and you may not be ablt to get out quick enough (depends how high i bought at)

Yes it is a guessing game, you have to know about your product before you buy it, otherwise you may get ripped off. Also yes, you have do projections for the for future, external and internal factors that can affect EPS & cashflow of a company etc

thx

MS

 

[rederob]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Kauri
If your entry hurdle is met what view do you have at that point?
a) none - take no position
b) one - take a position (short or long as it makes no difference because you have now decided the trade meets your criteria)

It is impossible to not have a forward view once you have taken a position, because logic determines that fact. I am ruling out the possibility you act "unconsciously", although there is always a chance you press the wrong the wrong button when you act consciously (fat finger syndrome).

I did answer your question about when the cycle low occurs - it occurs as a known event after the event. And subsequent cycle lows remain an ongoing possibility.

As for $5 for KZL, I use simple linear charts over a 3year time frame as a rule to determine where obvious lines of support occur.

nizar
My purchase price for WPL is $13.65 yet after I bought it it fell back down to around $10.
I could have sold it for well over $45 last April, and paid the tax office substantial capital gains tax.
I could have done the same to KZL in November 2006 and also paid the tax man handsomely.
Good companies bought cheaply (and I believe KZL represents a "cheap" purchase right now) have a habit of performing better than market averages, and that's all I need to do.
I am a very passive trader by comaprison to most that post at this site.

 

[Kauri]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Kauri
If your entry hurdle is met what view do you have at that point?
a) none - take no position
b) one - take a position (short or long as it makes no difference because you have now decided the trade meets your criteria)

Red...
Apart from thinking the term entry hurdle was self explanatory, I thought I had explained my position after it was met. i.e. If signs are there that indicate a bottom may have formed I set certain hurdles that have to be acheived before I enter. Back in this thread on 18 Jan I thought Kzl may have bottomed and posted my entry hurdles. They weren't met and I didn't enter. Currently I take the forward view that she may have reached bottom and have once again set entry hurdles that will tip the odds in favour of confirming this. Depending on whether or not they are met will decide whether I enter or not.
Sorry for the obvious confusion this seems to have caused.

It is impossible to not have a forward view once you have taken a position, because logic determines that fact. I am ruling out the possibility you act "unconsciously", although there is always a chance you press the wrong the wrong button when you act consciously (fat finger syndrome).

What in heavens name is this about.

 

[Halba]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

interesting debate, but theres just better value elsewhere(concentrate on other stocks)

 

[itchy]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

or u could just buy good quality stocks ie KZl when they have dropped a little, such as now and make a little more $$$ sure KZl may drop another 10 or 20% but u can cut my balls of and BBQ them if KZL is not back up there within 5 months. fundamentally kagara is stronger than itw as 3 months ago. POZ cant rise forever with out falling a little, just like anything that is traded. ppl will want profit and everybodys strategy is different.
there is no poor time to purchase a stock to which u see has value in the future, there are only better times

 

[rederob]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Kauri

My point is simple.
If you enter the trade, do you have a "forward view" or not?

Technical traders like to believe that what they are doing is very different to fundamental traders/investors because they use trading models based on set criteria ("entry hurdles" if you wish) to enter trades.

A technical model is set up on the premise that a "trade" has a greater likelihood of success because it has been tested and it works.

My "entry hurdle" can be as simple as a breach of long term support within an overall rising trend, or just view that a share's price does not match market fundamentals (my posts on MRE are an example). I find these methods to be very successful.

I think at the end of the day both you and I wish to profit. But I am deliberately picking on the semantics of a "forward view" versus "entry hurdle".

I regard them as no different in essence, but significantly different in application. That is, my forward view would have resulted in a "buy" of KZL last week. Your hurdle has not yet been met.

 

[rederob]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

interesting debate, but theres just better value elsewhere(concentrate on other stocks)

halba
I hereby accept your challenge and submit KZL at today's open price to be judged by a stock of your choice that represents "better value".
We shall then review the respective share prices in 2 months time.
Over to you.......

 

[reece55]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Well, I think the price movement today tells the story - KZL moved nicely today on large volume. Me thinks there is still value here!!!!!!

Question is: are we seeing a bounce or another move up.

Anyone take a position today?

Cheers

 

[rederob]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

halba
I hereby accept your challenge and submit KZL at today's open price to be judged by a stock of your choice that represents "better value".
We shall then review the respective share prices in 2 months time.
Over to you.......

halba
Are you not up to the challenge given your clear views on "value elsewhere"?

 

[Jay-684]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

no posting or interest on KZL for a while now...

dropped nicely recently and has recently been listed at a top 10 pick for 2007 in Money Magazine

what are peoples thoughts on the current situation?

 

[Rafa]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

strong move up today,
the chart looks like its turned...

Any thoughts on this one?

 

[Halba]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Nup i don't compete with others theres no point

Just my opinion that kzl is not good value at the moment. Its a copper producer, and copper stockpiles are increasing. Zinc demand has declined. ZFX looks much better value, why bother paying p/e 10x for KZL when zfx has p/e of 6x and much superior cashflow? Forget mine life - ZFX has more reserves and is valued much less $ per ton.

Check the figures have a go.

 

[flinders]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

had this on watch list from early feb when started to turn,my charts showed breakout at 5.45/50. entered fri.reckon good to run to close $6

 

[Out Too Soon]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Nup i don't compete with others theres no point

Just my opinion that kzl is not good value at the moment. Its a copper producer, and copper stockpiles are increasing. Zinc demand has declined. ZFX looks much better value, why bother paying p/e 10x for KZL when zfx has p/e of 6x and much superior cashflow? Forget mine life - ZFX has more reserves and is valued much less $ per ton.

Check the figures have a go.

I thought it was a fair challenge! no ones going to hang you for sharing, that's what the forum is supposed to be about.

 

[Rafa]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

substantial holding notice out from CBA,
they obviously think KZL was in a good buy range.

 

[toothfairy]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

substantial holding notice out from CBA,
they obviously think KZL was in a good buy range.

What's happening to it for the last few days? It's even better value now!

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Chronic timing for its run unfortunately, CBA taking a position pushing through resistance at 5.50 and closing at highs of 5.90............before Wednesday.

Could be just trying to find some fair value ATM during these times of uncertainty, 4.90ish is next support if its pressured by those jumping ship.

Cheers