KZL - Kagara Limited
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Deadcat
KZL's forecast is $175 Mil per the quarterly poduction report (Not sure if the Goldman Sachs prediction was based on earlier predictions) - still, considering their now reduced market cap due to the $3.00 fall since the highs, this means the share is trading at a pe of just under six - round about the same as ZFX. But KZL isn't a pure zinc play - they have copper in the mix as well, so fundamentally I would expect it should trade at a higher pe than ZFX.
Kauri, sure I appreciate that a pure technical entry would be after a retrace in a minor wave 2 to cath the minor wave 3 - I just think we might find it will move a little quicker - could well be wrong. Best of luck to all holders.
Cheers
Deadcat said:
Deadcat
KZL's forecast is $175 Mil per the quarterly poduction report (Not sure if the Goldman Sachs prediction was based on earlier predictions) - still, considering their now reduced market cap due to the $3.00 fall since the highs, this means the share is trading at a pe of just under six - round about the same as ZFX. But KZL isn't a pure zinc play - they have copper in the mix as well, so fundamentally I would expect it should trade at a higher pe than ZFX.
Kauri, sure I appreciate that a pure technical entry would be after a retrace in a minor wave 2 to cath the minor wave 3 - I just think we might find it will move a little quicker - could well be wrong. Best of luck to all holders.
Cheers
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
If looking at a technical entry to KZL the MACD is still going south, I was badly singed with KZL in Jan, I opened a long pos on 11th saw it rise initially then only to fall away sharply so I'm a bit hesitant yet, porkpie
If looking at a technical entry to KZL the MACD is still going south, I was badly singed with KZL in Jan, I opened a long pos on 11th saw it rise initially then only to fall away sharply so I'm a bit hesitant yet, porkpie
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Its not expensive atm
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 16.8 66.2 76.9 77.2
DPS 0.0 16.6 17.5 21.7
thx
MS
porkpie324 said:
Its not expensive atm
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 16.8 66.2 76.9 77.2
DPS 0.0 16.6 17.5 21.7
thx
MS
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
i wouldn't touch this with a ten foot pole to be honest
Mungana's going to be delayed to late 2008, and full proddy only in 2009
Admiral Bay is just too deep and in WA
their nickel not coming out until 2010
long wait for investors, and the premium is undeserved
i wouldn't touch this with a ten foot pole to be honest
Mungana's going to be delayed to late 2008, and full proddy only in 2009
Admiral Bay is just too deep and in WA
their nickel not coming out until 2010
long wait for investors, and the premium is undeserved
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
halba
The best time to buy a good equity is when the price is at or near a cycle low.
Kagara has hedged its copper at very favourable prices, while its share prices is now linked to an expected continuing decline in the price of zinc.
Zinc inventories have hardly moved in a few months despite massive Chinese destocking.
I expect that later in the year Kagara will reclaim its former highs, in some part due to its continued move to diversify.
I don't expect 2007 to repeat the great year it was in 2006 for zinc, however, the bulls know that hibernation is a many months-long affair: Something the bears are always asleep to!
halba
The best time to buy a good equity is when the price is at or near a cycle low.
Kagara has hedged its copper at very favourable prices, while its share prices is now linked to an expected continuing decline in the price of zinc.
Zinc inventories have hardly moved in a few months despite massive Chinese destocking.
I expect that later in the year Kagara will reclaim its former highs, in some part due to its continued move to diversify.
I don't expect 2007 to repeat the great year it was in 2006 for zinc, however, the bulls know that hibernation is a many months-long affair: Something the bears are always asleep to!
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
I beg to differ.
I think the best time to buy an equity is when the price is at an all time high, with little or no or very historical overhead resistance.
Of course if you buy KZL at $5 and it goes to $10 you make more money than somebody who waits until the price is $8. But by buying at what you think is the *low* may only be the low 1 or 2/10 times, but if you buy at an all time high, there's probably 8 or 9/10 chance that it will keep going up.
Id rather wait until the stock is in a clear uptrend.
rederob said:
I beg to differ.
I think the best time to buy an equity is when the price is at an all time high, with little or no or very historical overhead resistance.
Of course if you buy KZL at $5 and it goes to $10 you make more money than somebody who waits until the price is $8. But by buying at what you think is the *low* may only be the low 1 or 2/10 times, but if you buy at an all time high, there's probably 8 or 9/10 chance that it will keep going up.
Id rather wait until the stock is in a clear uptrend.
Kauri
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
How do you recognise that the cycle low is locked in, without using hindsight??
rederob said:
How do you recognise that the cycle low is locked in, without using hindsight??
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Probably the safest way to try and pick a cycle low is when the price is trending higher but the minor cycle is an oversold situation during the major upward trend. I have had success with KZL (and others) with this method, but as I said in earlier posts I was caught out during Jan , luckily the position was closed before it got too serious, and with money managment meant I was not over overexposed. I will now wait until KZL's trend has changed, which will happen, but as KAURI mentioned picking the absolute bottom is a guessing game. porkpie
Probably the safest way to try and pick a cycle low is when the price is trending higher but the minor cycle is an oversold situation during the major upward trend. I have had success with KZL (and others) with this method, but as I said in earlier posts I was caught out during Jan , luckily the position was closed before it got too serious, and with money managment meant I was not over overexposed. I will now wait until KZL's trend has changed, which will happen, but as KAURI mentioned picking the absolute bottom is a guessing game. porkpie
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michael_selway
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
not true, its about true value
doesnt matter if has been goign up, cause you are gettign ripped off if u try and chase it higher when its already overvalued. Might go up, but someone will be burned eventually.
So in that sense, buying something that has fallen can be better, but you have to value it properly, looking at new and updated future EPS & cashflow etc
thx
MS
nizar said:
not true, its about true value
doesnt matter if has been goign up, cause you are gettign ripped off if u try and chase it higher when its already overvalued. Might go up, but someone will be burned eventually.
So in that sense, buying something that has fallen can be better, but you have to value it properly, looking at new and updated future EPS & cashflow etc
thx
MS
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
All known to the market when KZL's share price was approaching $8.00.
As for Admiral Bay being in WA, so what, you mine were the deposits are!, not to mention KZL is based in West Oz.Probably a good idea they expand out of QLD with their FF deposit and Admiral Bay, should justify them being based in West Perth.
Look at how much holders of Zinc equities and hedge funds returned in 06.
Didn't take much of a shift to blow off some hype and necesitate the slowpokes to lock in their dwindling profits. Same slowpokes that probably entered at the top of the curve, blue sky and all
.
IMO not much has changed for KZL fundamentally in recent months, except its share price and a overdone pullback in Zinc spot. With the exception of KZL reaping in bulk cash for 06, picking up a great potential Nickle target, increasing production and ramping a new mine and paying its maiden divvy.
You'll never hear a winge out of me on KZL, its paid for a significant portion of my trading portfolio and to a lesser extent some of my longtermers.
Halba said:
All known to the market when KZL's share price was approaching $8.00.
As for Admiral Bay being in WA, so what, you mine were the deposits are!, not to mention KZL is based in West Oz.Probably a good idea they expand out of QLD with their FF deposit and Admiral Bay, should justify them being based in West Perth.
Look at how much holders of Zinc equities and hedge funds returned in 06.
Didn't take much of a shift to blow off some hype and necesitate the slowpokes to lock in their dwindling profits. Same slowpokes that probably entered at the top of the curve, blue sky and all
.IMO not much has changed for KZL fundamentally in recent months, except its share price and a overdone pullback in Zinc spot. With the exception of KZL reaping in bulk cash for 06, picking up a great potential Nickle target, increasing production and ramping a new mine and paying its maiden divvy.
You'll never hear a winge out of me on KZL, its paid for a significant portion of my trading portfolio and to a lesser extent some of my longtermers.
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Hi Michael
Your point does makes sense over the long term here...... but......
Stocks often go against the fundamental picture - why, because we don't all know what the future holds - this is what the chart tells us. Whilst a Company might be overvalued, when a stock reaches a new high, on high volume with a nice breakout, you have a much better chance of it going higher than if you try to pick a bottom, irrespective of the fundamental picture. Look at tech's model - he doesn't do an analysis on the DCF value of the firm, he gets the entry point, checks the graph and if it meets his risk/reward his in - and his stats talk for themselves.
In saying this however, I personally wouldn't wait until $8 to get back in on this one - if you ask me, the valuation is exceedingly cheap now from a fundamental perspective. They have locked in their copper using hedging at a great rate (as someone else mentioned previously) and will be a cash cow in the future - capped at $1 Bil, the profits will pay this off in 4 - 5 years! Kauri's suggestion here would be ideal - wait for a minor wave 3 entry here and catch the wave - one to watch out for IMO.
Cheers
michael_selway said:
Hi Michael
Your point does makes sense over the long term here...... but......
Stocks often go against the fundamental picture - why, because we don't all know what the future holds - this is what the chart tells us. Whilst a Company might be overvalued, when a stock reaches a new high, on high volume with a nice breakout, you have a much better chance of it going higher than if you try to pick a bottom, irrespective of the fundamental picture. Look at tech's model - he doesn't do an analysis on the DCF value of the firm, he gets the entry point, checks the graph and if it meets his risk/reward his in - and his stats talk for themselves.
In saying this however, I personally wouldn't wait until $8 to get back in on this one - if you ask me, the valuation is exceedingly cheap now from a fundamental perspective. They have locked in their copper using hedging at a great rate (as someone else mentioned previously) and will be a cash cow in the future - capped at $1 Bil, the profits will pay this off in 4 - 5 years! Kauri's suggestion here would be ideal - wait for a minor wave 3 entry here and catch the wave - one to watch out for IMO.
Cheers
Kauri
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Red,
I take a view of the current position. If signs are there that indicate a bottom may have formed I set certain hurdles that have to be acheived before I enter. Back in this thread on 18 Jan I thought Kzl may have bottomed and posted my entry hurdles. They weren't met and I didn't enter. Currently I take the forward view that she may have reached bottom and have once again set entry hurdles that will tip the odds in favour of confirming this. Depending on whether or not they are met will decide whether I enter or not.
To say that the best place to enter is at or near the cycle low cannot be disputed, I was merely trying to expand my knowledge by asking how you determine that the low has been locked in.
rederob said:
Red,
I take a view of the current position. If signs are there that indicate a bottom may have formed I set certain hurdles that have to be acheived before I enter. Back in this thread on 18 Jan I thought Kzl may have bottomed and posted my entry hurdles. They weren't met and I didn't enter. Currently I take the forward view that she may have reached bottom and have once again set entry hurdles that will tip the odds in favour of confirming this. Depending on whether or not they are met will decide whether I enter or not.
To say that the best place to enter is at or near the cycle low cannot be disputed, I was merely trying to expand my knowledge by asking how you determine that the low has been locked in.
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Value means nothing.
Future eps is a guessing game.
Share prices can go from undervalued to overvalued to even more overvalued. If you sold whenever true value was reached you would be missing out on big profits.
Also some share prices can stay undervalued for years and years.
You have to look at the TREND.
Each to his own, but my method has worked well FOR ME.
michael_selway said:
Value means nothing.
Future eps is a guessing game.
Share prices can go from undervalued to overvalued to even more overvalued. If you sold whenever true value was reached you would be missing out on big profits.
Also some share prices can stay undervalued for years and years.
You have to look at the TREND.
Each to his own, but my method has worked well FOR ME.
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
So - as a 'I'm not-a-chartists-a-hole' kinda question.
At what SP now, would folks (anyone) say the reversal has been confirmed as an uptrend?
Would you base it on the possible resistance line in Sept and say ... 5.50 ish?? or is that too late?
So - as a 'I'm not-a-chartists-a-hole' kinda question.
At what SP now, would folks (anyone) say the reversal has been confirmed as an uptrend?
Would you base it on the possible resistance line in Sept and say ... 5.50 ish?? or is that too late?
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Your forward view and your entry hurdles are quite alike.
As your entry hurdle is simply a forward view after the fact: The "fact" being that you now hold a view that the likelihood of a profitable trade is very much in your favour: Correct me if I err.
As I began buying KZL when it was still in the $2 range a year ago (after its late Jan 2006 correction) and am now "fully invested" (ie am not going to add any more), I won't being adding more right now.
However, were I in the market for more zinc, I would have bought last week as it hit my "value" trigger last Tuesday at $5.
For the next few months I will seldom see the trading screens during the day as my real job won't afford me that luxury.
So my trading style remains very long term, and my forward views are equally in keeping.
My forward view for zinc is that it will rebound firmly in price as the year goes by, and drag the likes of KZL with it.
I will let the market do what it has to do, and I will continue to adapt my investment decisions as I see fit.
For now that still leaves me with a lot of latitude to exit KZL in profit should the fundamentals clearly change.
Accordingly, I continue to pay more attention to following market fundamentals than price.
KauriKauri said:
Your forward view and your entry hurdles are quite alike.
As your entry hurdle is simply a forward view after the fact: The "fact" being that you now hold a view that the likelihood of a profitable trade is very much in your favour: Correct me if I err.
As I began buying KZL when it was still in the $2 range a year ago (after its late Jan 2006 correction) and am now "fully invested" (ie am not going to add any more), I won't being adding more right now.
However, were I in the market for more zinc, I would have bought last week as it hit my "value" trigger last Tuesday at $5.
For the next few months I will seldom see the trading screens during the day as my real job won't afford me that luxury.
So my trading style remains very long term, and my forward views are equally in keeping.
My forward view for zinc is that it will rebound firmly in price as the year goes by, and drag the likes of KZL with it.
I will let the market do what it has to do, and I will continue to adapt my investment decisions as I see fit.
For now that still leaves me with a lot of latitude to exit KZL in profit should the fundamentals clearly change.
Accordingly, I continue to pay more attention to following market fundamentals than price.
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Howdy lads, Just my 2 bobs worth, (Fundamentally I'll take freeball's advice on the state of KZL cause thats not my strong suit). From a purely technical pov. I think we have just about seen the bottom here ..... Why??.......
1) We have reached an old support level from September around $5 (and that support was formed after a healthy little spike up from $4.50 ish, so that looks fairly solid to me
2) The last three months of downtrending imo have filled up just about all those gaps created by the exponential rise prior
3) There is a solid base forming atm (last 5 days)
4) The volume has been decreasing as the sell off has neared its current level
5) MACD showing typical signs of a trend change
Entry criteria at this point could be simply for the sp to rise and stabilise above the $5.10 mark ........ or wait for the base to consolidate further (maybe a double bottom will form over the next week or so)
It does look possible that it could retrace further to $4.50, but that would be surprising, and if it did, that represents another very strong support level, so all in all the upside is starting to look more inviting than the downside.
Still relatively new to TA so all the above to be taken with a grain of salt. (PS I don't hold atm, but am watching closely)
Howdy lads, Just my 2 bobs worth, (Fundamentally I'll take freeball's advice on the state of KZL cause thats not my strong suit). From a purely technical pov. I think we have just about seen the bottom here ..... Why??.......
1) We have reached an old support level from September around $5 (and that support was formed after a healthy little spike up from $4.50 ish, so that looks fairly solid to me
2) The last three months of downtrending imo have filled up just about all those gaps created by the exponential rise prior
3) There is a solid base forming atm (last 5 days)
4) The volume has been decreasing as the sell off has neared its current level
5) MACD showing typical signs of a trend change
Entry criteria at this point could be simply for the sp to rise and stabilise above the $5.10 mark ........ or wait for the base to consolidate further (maybe a double bottom will form over the next week or so)
It does look possible that it could retrace further to $4.50, but that would be surprising, and if it did, that represents another very strong support level, so all in all the upside is starting to look more inviting than the downside.
Still relatively new to TA so all the above to be taken with a grain of salt. (PS I don't hold atm, but am watching closely)
