KISS Trading with Ann

[Ann]

Just for fun, I thought I would try for a portfolio of 10 shares/ETFs built up over three months and held until they break through a vital trendline/resistance and get sold. This will all be done manually with IC charts. I will eyeball the charts, draw my support and resistance trendlines and see how we go. I like to chart in the simplest way possible hence the reason I say KISS = Keep it Simple Sweetheart/Stupid!

I am not here to teach or bang on like an expert, this is just for a bit of fun and not to be taken too seriously, nor is it a recommendation for any stocks selected. If you get something from it...awesome! I will put up my charts and give my reasons for an entry and an exit along the way. My broker (Westpac) has a little window that will show holdings and percentage gain/loss but there will not be any great fancy windows of P&L hence adhering to the concept of keeping it simple!
I will probably post once a week to see how we are travelling, unless I get bored, sick or if I find it is putting me off my game, then I won't!
I do have an ulterior motive, I want to improve my close (now adhering to that other wonderful sales hint ABC = Always Be Closing ) and not give back more than I have to, to the market. I just sold six shares (with none in loss) from November 2020 because they broke through a resistance line. I did a tally and only came away with a combined profit of 13.5%, piss poor in my opinion. Let's see if we can improve our trendlines lines and better that!

 

[Ann]

During this week I chose two stocks one of them was the ETF OOO. I have a fondness for ETFs and I am currently browsing through the catalogue to see what catches my fancy. I am long term bullish for oil. There is one chart shape I just love to see and that is an island bottom. I have had a lot of success with this shape in the past. However on the short term I feel I may suffer a little pain before the pleasure, we will see. I should add I would normally never buy a stock when it is under the 200dsma as well as the 50dsma and under a falling trendline as well. Geez! Other than seeing the island bottom I would have and should have waited but I was in the mood to buy something and I can suck up a bit of minus. Hopefully, it won't turn into a loss! Warts and all folks. If I lose on this one it is because I felt an island bottom trumps all else. Let's see if I am wrong.



The second stock I bought was ORA. The three letters hold a special meaning for me and I have resisted buying this stock for years because of it. However, looking at the monthly chart with EOD I can see the most delicious inverted head and shoulders. I won't be surprised if ORA travels sideways for a while until it reaches that rising support trendline. I also like the way it has recently bounced off the 200dsma. I like to draw all my support and resistance trendlines on EOD (end-of-day) prices as I can get excellent precision. When I chart I like to look at the monthly charts as well as the dailies. Sometimes I can see more that way.



This is the little window doovie with the holdings and the +and - for this week



Those who are interested I hope you will enjoy this journey, please feel free to comment if you would like.

 

[qldfrog]

Great idea Ann ??

 

[Ann]

I did a tally and only came away with a combined profit of 13.5%, piss poor in my opinion. Let's see if we can improve our trendlines lines and better that!

OK well, this is embarrassing, that 13.5% profit was an error. I have dyslexia and messed up reading the columns, twice!
I should have said 19.8% profit, but I also forgot to add on the dividends I got, so that brings us to 23.48%.

However I am still not confident my calculations are correct even though I have checked them twice, so if anyone is interested in checking my calcs, please let me know if I have stuffed up again.

Here is the info I was working from...



Then the dividends were HVN 165.15 AWC 138.29 AFI 100.80 HACK 192.22 NAB 132.00 ANZ155.40 HVN 220.20
I also got quite a few franking credits but I am not going to add those to the total as it is too much effort.
My beginning value was $30,000

Then I used the bottom two windows on this calculator to work out the percentage.

Percentage Calculator

percentagecalculator.net

 

[divs4ever]

dyslexia isn't an entirely bad thing , but can lead to a lack of self-confidence and paranoia ( which are not totally bad either )

HOWEVER they do seem to be an impediment to quick trading decisions ( say day-trading )

good luck

 

[Ann]

dyslexia isn't an entirely bad thing , but can lead to a lack of self-confidence and paranoia ( which are not totally bad either )

HOWEVER they do seem to be an impediment to quick trading decisions ( say day-trading )

good luck

I didn't know I had dyslexia until a few years ago. I just thought I was just a dumbfck at school and when I left I wanted to prove to myself that this was not the case, so in turn, it made me into a very high achiever always wanting to improve my performance. So no I don't lack self-confidence and paranoia is akin to fear and that is an emotion I can't feel.

I have no problem with making quick decisions but day-trading is not where my comfort zone is. I always try to work within my comfort zone with all things.

 

[KevinBB]

I should have said 19.8% profit, but I also forgot to add on the dividends I got, so that brings us to 23.48%.

There are quite a few ways of calculating a percentage return, but, in keeping with the sentiment expressed in the thread title, calcs are ok.

I wouldn't try to bring franking credits into the equation, either. Franking credits are just a tax thing, the same way that capital gains tax is just a tax thing. I haven't yet seen anyone bring capital gains tax into their estimates of returns ... so no need to do the same thing with franking credits.

KH

 

[Ann]

This week I added another stock to my portfolio ABB. It is a youngster but already doing very well. I feel it is in a consolidation phase at the moment and don't feel there will be any rapid rise for a couple of months.

I should also tell folks where I find my stocks as that is a big part of building a portfolio of course. In this case, I have on my computer lists of IPOs over the years. I manually list them as they float by year such as IPO21 or IPO20 so forth, which is where this comes from. I add stocks as they list and have a quick description of what they do and generally how much their float price was and any incidental info I see. I don't choose stocks that are too young to have the 200dsma as I don't know where they are in space. I review these lists on a regular basis. Just a quick flick through is enough, it isn't very time-consuming.



...and here is the little window doovie

 

[divs4ever]

I didn't know I had dyslexia until a few years ago. I just thought I was just a dumbfck at school and when I left I wanted to prove to myself that this was not the case, so in turn, it made me into a very high achiever always wanting to improve my performance. So no I don't lack self-confidence and paranoia is akin to fear and that is an emotion I can't feel.

I have no problem with making quick decisions but day-trading is not where my comfort zone is. I always try to work within my comfort zone with all things.

i chose a different way and just react in tense situations ( in the market that can work well ) in real life my friends now know better than to surprise me

i worked out what i had ( to use and adapt ) when i was young and learned they had a name for it decades later ( they are still guessing on some labels )

the key to the markets in understand the advantages you have , and resist playing in areas where you are not so advantaged , the numbers i have to calculate and decide early , but patterns can talk to me ( which is probably why i only glance at charts , to get what i need )

so i mostly just take opportunities ( or side-step them )

 

[Ann]

No new stocks this week but quite a few things are tempting me and also thinking about re-entering one or two I sold recently.

However, let's talk about ABB, one in this group. I would not be surprised to see a substantial fall back to the 200dsma. It is a risk I was happy enough to take as I was aware I bought in too far away from the 200dsma. I can suck up the pain, I know what is going on. I never lose sleep over missing out on buying cheaper. Many is the time I have bought something at the supermarket, only to find the next week it goes on special. I regard it as the same thing really. I don't buy more of the product just because it is cheaper, that is surplus to my needs, same applies to stocks, so I don't average down. Not saying I am right or wrong, that is just my preference.



...and a look at the monthly chart shows how $4 is a potential and reasonable level.




...and the running total for this week.

 

[divs4ever]

No new stocks this week but quite a few things are tempting me and also thinking about re-entering one or two I sold recently.

However, let's talk about ABB, one in this group. I would not be surprised to see a substantial fall back to the 200dsma. It is a risk I was happy enough to take as I was aware I bought in too far away from the 200dsma. I can suck up the pain, I know what is going on. I never lose sleep over missing out on buying cheaper. Many is the time I have bought something at the supermarket, only to find the next week it goes on special. I regard it as the same thing really. I don't buy more of the product just because it is cheaper, that is surplus to my needs, same applies to stocks, so I don't average down. Not saying I am right or wrong, that is just my preference.

View attachment 134789

...and a look at the monthly chart shows how $4 is a potential and reasonable level.


View attachment 134790

...and the running total for this week.

View attachment 134791

was dithering over ABB as a 'keeper ' ( investment ) ( along with SWP ) has growth potential , but i worry about regulatory headwinds ( to protect the 'precious NBN ' )

HOWEVER will the ( Aussie ) Telcos be seen as a 'safe-haven ' substitute and be pushed higher in the coming month by retail investors

i would be more likely to revisit this if that $4 level approached

but so far am busier watching the TUA investment ( some acquired by the TPM split and some bought on market ) and wondering if and when i should take that investment cash off the table ( i bought on market @ 47cents , i normally trim the holding by now )

the main hesitancy is i already hold more cash than i am comfortable with

good luck

 

[Ann]

i would be more likely to revisit this if that $4 level approached

I reckon $4 is a real chance looking at the chart, especially with the thin Christmas/New Year trading.

 

[divs4ever]

i was thinking ABB was more likely to get buyer support and seller reluctance , but would be happy ( maybe even over-joyed ) to be wrong .

cheers

 

[Ann]

i was thinking ABB was more likely to get buyer support and seller reluctance but would be happy ( maybe even over-joyed ) to be wrong

The way I interpret buying and selling in low participation times is the buyers want to buy in as cheaply as possible and the holders may be away for the holidays when their stops are triggered at lower and lower levels. There are also people who buy in until a resistance level is broken, then they are out. One resistance level using EOD could be $4.58 and if using Candlesticks or OHLC then it looks like $4.40. This would help it on its journey down.

 

[Ann]

was dithering over ABB as a 'keeper ' ( investment ) ( along with SWP ) has growth potential

I re-read the above mention about SWP hmm. That has had many, many incarnations over the years and many, many share consolidations which reduce one's holdings massively and many, many stock issues which reduce the value of stocks being held and many trading halts which can tie up capital.
The chart shows this particular stock over the years reached $9873.00. It certainly did not reach that price but that is what happens to a penny stock when they keep doing consolidations. I would class SWP as a nasty stock for anyone planning on holding it for more than a few days.

This is a very long term view from when it was first listed, it is a yucky stock and I don't hold.

 

[divs4ever]

buyers wanting to buy cheap , YEP , that is a much-used plan by me

but i never set stop-losses , but often use sell( or reduction ) orders at preset prices ( normally crystallizing profits )

now good luck if you choose to go on holidays with orders left open ( trailing stop loss or otherwise ) this market could turn extremely volatile at any moment

i hope the folks who set the stop-losses understand the risks they take

 

[divs4ever]

I re-read the above mention about SWP hmm. That has had many, many incarnations over the years and many, many share consolidations which reduce one's holdings massively and many, many stock issues which reduce the value of stocks being held and many trading halts which can tie up capital.
The chart shows this particular stock over the years reached $9873.00. It certainly did not reach that price but that is what happens to a penny stock when they keep doing consolidations. I would class SWP as a nasty stock for anyone planning on holding it for more than a few days.

This is a very long term view from when it was first listed, it is a yucky stock and I don't hold.

View attachment 134795

i don't hold either ( ABB and SWP ) but i am looking for possibles in the future , and the Telecommunications sector does have potential and risks ( unlike , say 'department stores ' )

now a great business can suffer greatly from a management change , and ( less often ) a tragic business can be turned around by ambitious dynamic management ( maybe SWP can grab some superior execs via it's acquisition campaign of minnows )

for a comparison let's throw in a 'flea-bag ' ( that i hold ) HIL grabbed a big name in the Telco game , and still manged to stumble some more and back to 'the old days ' of no longer being considered a 'Telco player'

 

[Ann]

now a great business can suffer greatly from a management change , and ( less often ) a tragic business can be turned around by ambitious dynamic management ( maybe SWP can grab some superior execs via it's acquisition campaign of minnows )

Highly unlikely there would be any 'superior execs' willing to be associated with a long term pump and dump like this wash, rinse and recycled company, which is what SWP is. Granted a smart trader could make a few bob out of SWP but you would want to be well clear of any trading halts, capital raisings or consolidations.

 

[divs4ever]

Highly unlikely there would be any 'superior execs' willing to be associated with a long term pump and dump like this wash, rinse and recycled company, which is what SWP is. Granted a smart trader could make a few bob out of SWP but you would want to be well clear of any trading halts, capital raisings or consolidations.

i agree in general , and have learned to be suspicious when a small under-performer hires a 'high-profile ' exec. , but investing is also about spotting the actual opportunity as well .

i have held TLS for several years before selling recently , i still hold TPM ( now TPG ) , and am an unhappy Optus customer , given those three now dominate the sector , i see room for a well-run upstart to grab some market share , now that upstart might not be ABB or SWP but the smaller investor with some time on their side would do well to look at the sector from time-to-time and see if anyone is worthy of a small investment this time .

i also hold TUA , and SPK , and had a very nice run in CNU ( before selling after the company made some changes i didn't like ) the bulk of my telco portfolio is outside Australia , so am looking and watching for someone worth a dabble in the Australian market ( i suspect TPG without David Teoh will lose the driving force it one had , but rescued that investment cash a few years back )

 

[sptrawler]

@divs4ever I personally think the telco sector is one of the hardest sectors to do business in, a bit like the electrical power sector, a semi public service so highly regulated.
Telstra has shown how difficult it is , they still are no where near their final tranche float price and that is with a huge taxpayer injection through the NBN.
As I said only my personal opinion, but when all the competitors are selling the same product, it makes it hard for them to sell themselves other than on price, which ends up eating into their profits. Its just not a sector I can get excited about.
Just my opinion.