Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

KGN - Kogan.com Limited

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I wouldn't say dead quite yet - more moribund.

The trend over the past 20 years is more than clear and it hadn't even flatlined (so indicated a bottoming out) before. I can see it just reaching a point of X% of what it used to be and just staying there - but we didn't hit it before coronavirus, so the drop has more to go yet.
 
I agree with everyone on this, the malls as we know them are probably done, small boutique shops selling junk that is easily attained online is finished, but a lot will depend on how nimble the mall owners are at repurposing the space IMO.
The shops that survive will get bigger and the unused vacant space will have to be repurposed for entertainment, eating and child minding.

Because we don't have the population density, I can't see the malls becoming like Singapore's 'Lucky Plaza' or similar, but I think they will have to become more along the lines of community recreation facilities which includes shopping.
If not, well they will make new housing estates.
 
greggles said:
That's a big call. It's currently trading at $16.65. What makes you think it's more than 35% overvalued?
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first of all price doesn't necessarily equal value. value is like a meme :> something we will neve touch haha. long story short, growth is slowing down, concerning signal the growth is due to COVID surge not organic. Gross profit is on a rise, but at a negative accelerator -11.43%, same story with gross margin -104.21%, EBITDA -61.5%, NPAT -68.51%. Don't forget profit taker, I guess big fish is out there in a million dollar mansion sunbathing sipping Lafite 82, and goes like " it is time to sell some KGN...…"
 
Shares in e-commerce firm Kogan.com were crunched on Friday as it joined the growing number of companies reporting weak or weakening sales and earnings figures for the March quarter.

Friday saw Kogan join the queue and the shares fell more than 11% in the first hour of trading to $11.10. The shares touched an 11-month low of $11.02 in trading. Kogan was one of the big winners from the surge in online sales during 2020’s lockdowns during the pandemic but now its boost is running out of puff.

Customer demand during the March quarter slowed, expenses rose and despite a rise in gross profit, adjusted earnings fell 24%.

Kogan said it had been increasing its promotional activity to improve its inventory position (ie to clear unsold stock).
 
Online retailer Kogan.com has slashed its outlook pointing to its rapid growth during the past year which resulted in

supply chain issues,

miscalculation of inventory,

higher warehousing costs.
 
UnicornHunter_8570 said:
I will be looking at 5.5-6.8 for a good buy.
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Just to have an adder with your expectation, @UnicornHunter_8570 could you please advise if you see the price could potentially reach $5.5 as you have given a big range and what will you do should the price come to its lowest point of $7 and go up?

Not long ago (subscribted this thread today only so have not followed the postings past - apology for referring back dated ones)- Feb 21, you asked who was joining you at $12 :) :)

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No issue but definitely curious as KGN is trading after today's fall at its lowest price in 12 months and reading the trading statement, probably many more surprise to come with a ' dynamic' word included in a business update today bringing the price lowered by 14.29 pc.
Interestingly you and few others always raised concern on KGN and its would be lack of perormance - excepting only one- the big marketeer Motley Fool . :)


On the same subject but different reference point, I am thinking of this fundie who increased holding and the price dived down significantly. How good their research is?
 
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 - business update

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 - increased holding
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 - increased holding after selling off earlier

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 - reduced holding
today's trading after 4 PM, shows some interesting volume other than 14 % price increase after a similar reduction yesterday following business update published on Friday 21st May.
Is some one manipulating the market ?

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$147 million transaction

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KGN's price has risen back towards what was an earlier target of $13.50 it hit in July. Should it break and close confidently above that level there would be a probable target ahead of $17.00. However, $13.50 is a strong level of resistance which could turn price down again and a buy prior to a break would be high risk.
 

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still nowhere cheap enough for me to add more

good luck if you are buying the drop though , who knows how long these lockdowns will last
 
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