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KGN - Kogan.com Limited

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Any thoughts on upcoming earnings? Everyone would be expecting a healthy profit but not sure if it will align with the current trading price.
$25 achievable?
 
Did you see the report listed? Earnings are up 160% year on year.
 
Anyone else get on this a while back? 8% run just today.
 
I have been watching KGN with envy since it has had a beautiful run from March Low to October High ~ up over 600%

It seems to have stalled and lost another 14% last week.

How far will it retrace? Previous ATH was $10 (2018)

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Dunno. But the last earnings announcement was 160% up year on year iirc. I'd expect something else equally as mental next time.

I bought at $13, not planning on selling.
 
Financial services firm Morningstar says Kogan.com shares are "materially overvalued" because investors are extrapolating the current surge in sales due to online migration during the pandemic too far into the future.

Morningstar's director of equity research, Johannes Faul, valued Kogan.com at $10.50 a share, compared with a current price of $16.96. The shares fell 3 per cent on Monday, taking losses since last month, when the stock reached $25.57, to 33 per cent.

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The company was trading on a "markedly high" multiple relative to its peers, though sales and profit growth were expected to slow after growing at more than 100 per cent during the pandemic.
"Near term we expect customers to return to physical stores as restrictions ease, and higher unemployment to result in lower household discretionary income and consumer sentiment," Mr Faul said. "Longer term we expect Amazon Australia to continue to aggressively take market share and many omni-channel retailers to become increasingly competitive online."
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Dona Ferentes said:
Financial services firm Morningstar says Kogan.com shares are "materially overvalued" because investors are extrapolating the current surge in sales due to online migration during the pandemic too far into the future.
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Sheesh! You wouldn't want to be paying for insights like that one, would you?!

Its hardly just Kogan, every business that has had a revenue and earnings spike during covid has been run up in a similar way, even if the source is just JobKeeper payments!!

The return to reality is going to be a harsh reset when it comes.
 
galumay said:
Sheesh! You wouldn't want to be paying for insights like that one, would you?!

Its hardly just Kogan, every business that has had a revenue and earnings spike during covid has been run up in a similar way, even if the source is just JobKeeper payments!!

The return to reality is going to be a harsh reset when it comes.
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I can't see how this space is going to remain buoyant when there are so many competitors, there is only so much computer screen to fit adverts and be on the first page of the search engine.
IMO this could well be an online shopping crash, when the big players get geared up and as you say the jobkeeper payments cease.
 
I think he's only half right.

His premise is correct, but he's forgetting about how much bricks & mortar has been laid waste by the virus & is not going to return. E-tail has absolutely taken the spoils of war here. There's also the fact that electronics etc are constantly going out of date and so are effectively a consumable (albeit one which takes a fair while to consume) unlike things like furniture etc which are typically replaced on a decade+ basis.

We aren't going back to how things were before.
 
this amuses me
Part of the group's recipe for cheap prices is a relentless focus on data and inventory management in guiding its import of exclusive brands from China. About half of gross profit still comes from house brands such as Kogan, Ovela, Fortis and Komodo, around 90 per cent of which are sourced from Chinese factories.
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the article goes on to quote RK
"Other than Aldi I can't think of a business in Australia that would do anywhere near that from an exclusive brands perspective," Mr Kogan said. "The way we manage inventory there [in China] is what makes us such a strong business."
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Mainly undifferentiated cheap stuff out of factories, branded for the customer. The Kogan biz has certain advantages, of being an early mover, having robust IT, but spin is not a moat.
 
over9k said:
This time? Do you mean compared to the GFC?

Bricks & mortar etc have been in structural decline for 20 years.
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This is a classic case of not being able to see the forest for the trees. Most people can't imagine a world without huge shopping centres and bricks and mortar shops everywhere because that's the way it's always been. Well, at least since we started building shopping centres.

But things are changing, and they won't be going back to the way things were. The shift to online is still in its infancy but it cannot be stopped and it will accelerate from here.

The last place I would want to be now is in commercial real estate and stocks like Scentre Group that own and manage shopping centres. The inevitable massacre is coming and it will be brutal. We will start seeing ghost malls in Australia like they have in the USA.

Yes, foot traffic will return to shopping centres in the short term but the long term structural shift to online has begun and it cannot be turned back.
 
It began 20 years ago. It's just been accelerated tenfold this year. 5 years of change in 5 months kind of thing. We're living in the future.

The one that's been in its infancy until now has been remote working. Again, coronavirus has put us 5+ years ahead of trend there too. That also won't be going back to where it was.


There's also been a huge demand drop for inner city apartments, flats, houses etc as a result. Shoebox sized apartments are, as we all know, awful, and the only reason you'd live in one would be to save yourself the work commute.

Remove that commute and you remove the necessity to live in the city.

The only hope commercial real estate has is to convert to residential - but even then, they're going to be inner city apartments etc that nobody actually *wants* to live in.

In short, commercial real estate "investors" are f***ed.
 
over9k said:
The only hope commercial real estate has is to convert to residential - but even then, they're going to be inner city apartments etc that nobody actually *wants* to live in.

In short, commercial real estate "investors" are f***ed.
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I imagine there will be an increased demand for warehouse space but watch for this to happen close to Australia Post distribution centres so product can be shipped faster and easier.

Warehousing, logistics, shipping related services - these will be growth areas as online continues to gobble up retail market share.
 
With Black Friday and Cyber Monday coming up we will see who is right. I would have thought they would be watched closely when gauging company performance of online retailers.
 
I think people will be amazed to discover how little things actually change and how quickly life goes back to normal post Covid. The death of B&M retail has been sounded for years, its still strong in many areas of retail and always will be. There are opportunities for some to use omni channels to take advantage of all means of distribution but at the end of the day the businesses like Kogan have seen a huge distortion from Covid and things like JobKeeper.

People valuing their long term cash flows based on a few months of covid distortion are in for a nasty shock IMO.

The opportunity was when Kogan was $4.50 in March, but it still didn't look cheap enough to me so I held off! Thats one I got very wrong, I misunderstood the impact of Covid, JK, JS etc and how bewitched the market would be by very short term performance.
 
Working from home isn't all its cut out to be, on both sides of the coin.

Let's have some women's opinions about shopping centres, eh?!
Yes, there's no doubt bricks and mortar are in a slow decline, and internet shopping becoming more popular, that doesn't mean bricks and mortar is dead in the future.

The social aspect seems to be forgotten.
"Meet you at the mall."?

We all have our opinions.
Just like nostalgia bringing over $100k for some 50+ year old holdens and fords.... Did you think about that 25+ years ago when you could snap em up at the bottom dollar 5k range....

As for Ruslan?
Buy before Friday, sell on the overly good news about sales results....or are the results already priced in....?
 
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