KAL - Kalgoorlie-Boulder Resources

[Wilson!]

Guys, i'm reposting this from what i put on HC
I have been on KAL for a few weeks and been trying to tell people what was coming

With todays close, if we see the heads at 30c tmrw then the oppies will be at 15c or so

If we see the heads at 40c, oppies will be 20c or so or maybe more, they don't expire until next year sometime.

Who knows what we will see tmrw, or over the next few weeks, but the directors need a big fat kiss for what they did today

They will keep the sp rising as they have announced:
1. More news in two weeks, or less as we saw today
2. Jorc in december
3. All the gold is near ground
4. The size of the strike continues to grow in size!
5. The market cap is massively less than many with similar size resourcves, and even some with at depth resource!

These guys are brilliant and have done this much better than most

As I've been saying for a while now, not just today, this is going up, and will continue to do so, because of the professional approach the directors have taken in informing the market of the success of their operations

Cheers,
Wilson!

 

[zt3000]

Whats everyones thoughts on a retrace tomorrow?

I mean 100% in one day is big bananas ... but then again the stock market is a fickle beast ... i guess we will have to wait untill tomorrow

 

[Wilson!]

Ha not likely
Only 13m market cap, after today. A rerating was necessary

More news in two weeks, then jorc in dec
This is just the start

 

[alphman]

Whats everyones thoughts on a retrace tomorrow?

I mean 100% in one day is big bananas ... but then again the stock market is a fickle beast ... i guess we will have to wait untill tomorrow

IMO, probability favours a retrace, however we have seen over the past week that the company is full of surprises, good surprises, and they have clearly stated that there's more to come.

With the amount of attention this one got last week for the resource upgrade and again today, I'd say most people have this one down as the one to watch over the next couple of weeks and I think this is enough to keep the share price afloat.

Fundamentals are still there.

160,891,388 ordinary shares, 51,555,472 options expiring at $0.20 (July 08). Market cap fully diluted at today's close of $0.24 is $50,987,246. Cash in bank of $1m with another $10m possible from option conversions. 1.2moz of gold defined so far. EV/oz (including cash from options) is $33/oz. Industry average is arguably around the $50 mark, potentially more with gold eyeing $850/oz.

Today's announcement, IMO, was an absolute humdinger. Hits are wider and grades are higher. To top it off, these insections are outside the current JORC estimates. Come December, I believe we will see an increase in tonnage as well as grade, resulting in yet another increase in overall resources. 1.5moz? 1.8moz? Personally, I think it's possible as we are yet to see the other three prospects appraised (keep an eye out on Selene due in a couple of weeks).

Not sure about cap raising. They only have $1m in the kitty, but as mentioned before, there's potentially $10m out there that they can get their hands on between now and July 2008 from option conversions. This should be enough on it's own to see through the PFS. Taking a stab, I reckon $5m max to the ensure there's sufficient cash for the next two quarters. Assuming a placement at $0.20, thats a 25m share dilution which is not much considering it could have been 50m at the start of today.

As for startup costs. No idea. The resources are near surface so it would be amenable to open-pit mining.

 

[Wilson!]

Great post alpha!
I reckon cap raising out of oppies conv or from the market once jorc is announced
that way they will get loads more at a higher price

I love your valuations, spot on there.
I bought more oppies at 9.6c near the end of day, as it will gap up tmrw.

The trick is, when do I sell?
With so much news on the way, I would love to hold the whole way through. 9.6c entry, in 5 weeks time, could sell for 20c or 30c or more.

It's a tough one, but I wont be selling for a while aas it will be all stations tomorrow

 

[alphman]

Hey Wilson, yeah I'm in the same boat as you. Don't quite know when to sell. I'm still holding my 7c heads and 1.7c oppies! I think we'll see 30c before the end of the year. All eyes are on this one over the next few weeks. There's another two possible runs we can see before xmas, and after today, I'm not too worried about any short term retracements. In fact, I think it would be a healthy lead up to the next announcement!

Also, I might just add that the management has all my votes. They know what they're doing. The timing of the last two announcements were spot on and they continue to under-estimate and over-deliver which is why KAL should be trading at a premium compared to it's peers, but that's my opinion.

BTW, it's in the company's best interest to keep the options in the money, so I have no doubt that KAL will continue to surprise us over the next few weeks. Just remember that Selene is a low grade deposit (avg. 1.5g/t) so anything above that would be fantastic.

 

[Wilson!]

Cheers mate yep agree 100%
I think I will just walk away tomorrow, not look at teh screen and wait to see what happens.

I'm buying more on open and on friday when my settlment clears.

See how we go...

 

[shaunm]

Yeah this has been a great day for KAL.
I got in on Monday on the strength of the posts here (thanks to all the posters) and some research and it has paid off....this site is fantastic!
Took my profits today and am now free-carrying; even that went up.
WIll look to buy back in if support happens tomorrow or perhaps things back off a bit.

 

[thedave]

I got in a few days ago at 12.5c on great advice from here and got out today at my preset of 18c. Got back in at 23.5c at close of day, again after discussion. Why am I less concerned about a retrace than I otherwise would be? The volume, the sheer massive relative volume of stock turned over today and the relentless buying right to the wire. I figured, if this was the effect of traders monitoring low key stocks under the radar, what will happen when the serious buyers pick up on the move and do their maths overnight? I calculated on the news last Friday that the company value per share was a very conservative 20c on the price (based on 10% of the value of the resource estimate). Todays news just drives it further (I havent worked it out). So, I'm back in. The scary thing is I wont be able to touch a computer tomorrow, so where it goes I wont know until the end of the day!

 

[shaunm]

A mate made $62k off 23k he bought two days ago.

That is an amazing story and return!
Now there's the sort of funds I need to be putting into these little runners....one day.

 

[doctorj]

Now there's the sort of funds I need to be putting into these little runners....one day.

Without wanting to drag the thread away from KAL - I wanted to make a quick plug for the concept of risk. Above average returns generally consistent with above average risk. I highly recommend reading a book about the 'Boy Plunger' Jesse Livermore in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator as a good introduction to risk.

 

[shaunm]

Without wanting to drag the thread away from KAL - I wanted to make a quick plug for the concept of risk. Above average returns generally consistent with above average risk. I highly recommend reading a book about the 'Boy Plunger' Jesse Livermore in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator as a good introduction to risk.

Point taken Doctorj.
Euphoria, not risk, is probably the word for today (depending on what stock you have been in.):
Yes "Risk" needs to be forefront of mind and I try and temper my enthusiasm.
Who knows, tomorrow may well reinforce that very concept?

 

[Wilson!]

That is an amazing story and return!
Now there's the sort of funds I need to be putting into these little runners....one day.

- You and me both there

Looking forward to a big day today. More news to come is what makes me confident it will continue up and up, but let's wait and see

 

[Wilson!]

Well today sucked, about as much as a day can...


Hmmm, well I am holding on and just waiting for the bounce
I think today showed there were a lot of traders in there, so once she settles I imagine we'll see stability, then a rise back up when rationalism and common sense kick in

Got the news in 7-10 days with likely more upgrades then JORC next month
I am in the red somewhat now, so I am happy with the story, just going to let it unfold in due course.

 

[Bushman]

Well today sucked, about as much as a day can...


Hmmm, well I am holding on and just waiting for the bounce
I think today showed there were a lot of traders in there, so once she settles I imagine we'll see stability, then a rise back up when rationalism and common sense kick in

Got the news in 7-10 days with likely more upgrades then JORC next month
I am in the red somewhat now, so I am happy with the story, just going to let it unfold in due course.

Hang in there Wilson. Short term pain, long term gain as they say. I must say KAL caught me by surprise but 1.2m ounces at whopping grades suggest this will be a good one in the longer term if they can firm up a 1.2m JORC and an economic mining plan. Money is tight with this one but a am sure any capital raising will be jumped in with the POG at $800+ and likely to remain there.

I resisted buying in yesterday as it had day traders written all over it. A pause for breath with a chance for the DT's to take some profits and nick of to the next big thing is what you longer termers need. Resource is still there, market cap is still small and the future news flow should keep things bubbling along. There will be future highs and future lows esp now that it is on the DT radar as a chance to make a quick buck. Just ask yourself if there is really a reason to sell and you will be ok.

 

[Wilson!]

Good man, thanks bushman.
That does make me feel better to hear!!!

I'll be holding, I don't need a loss right now, when I can ride it out and make a profit!

 

[thedave]

Well, I took a hit today on KAL but no pain as it was offset by BMY rising and me taking profits on that. Still, I dont like things going down, but today had risk written all over it, I just put my money on ongoing excitement. But lets see, 53 million shares traded with the stock price actually holding-up unexpectedly well against enormous daytrader pressure to take profits, and, as mentioned, there is more news to come soon. I see today as a correction. I'm still holding.

 

[Whiskers]

Good man, thanks bushman.
That does make me feel better to hear!!!

I'll be holding, I don't need a loss right now, when I can ride it out and make a profit!

Wilson, Bushman pretty well sumed it up, but I checked my charting to make sure.

I think it looks all right for KAL, so long as it doesn't slip any more.

Today finished at .19. If it had closed significantly below .1875 we would have had a Dark Cloud (bear signal), but since it didn't there is a chance that it might kick on after a bit of a spell.

I also got the impression there were some day traders retreating, but not as severe as RAU, which I exited before the rout.

 

[Plugger]

I'm almost tempted to top up now. I don't know if it will go too much lower, but a tad risky for me.

 

[Wilson!]

Good stuff guys
I think the general concencus around the boards is that people have accepted this as a correction, or breather before the news. Too many traders meant it would have to be exit time at some stage, herd mentality wise...

No chart can go straight up, you need a drop back. So technically this was healthy

OMG, look at RAU!!! I didn't even notice until just then.
Geez, I hold some free carried, but knew it would drop at some stage without news.

At least KAL has fundamentals, near surface gold, news in 1-2 weeks and jorc after that in dec

Yeah, I am going to hold, and top up
I can buy more on monday, see what happens then

Oh thanks whiskers - it's always great to get a techie's perspective.
For what its worth, my software package still pins it as a buy (or more correctly, in an uptrend still)