Jobs, jobs, jobs!

[dhukka]

interesting article out today...report by the Australian Institute...about 11.7% unemployment.....the AI report shows there are a further 710,000 people who want to work,***** but are not actively looking for work...they claim to be carers, housekeepers etc...
the criteria for the ABS report is that to claim to be unemployed...****one must be actively looking for work....
oh and the ABS is a survey of 23,000 households....and the figures are then estimated for the total population.....
so how do you feel now...is it 5.7 or 11.7% unemployed.....
my question is why are 710,000 people wanting to work...but are not looking for work...maybe its how the question was presented to them....
eg; could you be bothered waking up on time,,,travelling to work, working 8 hours for a minimum 200,000 a year.....they probably would say yes....
but since their chances of earning even 50,000 are slim...they do not bother...and there is another one supporting them anyway.....
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25314387-31037,00.html

The abs should at least present alternative measures of employment as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics does. For the US, U3 is the most commonly cited figure for unemployment, however they publish other broader measures.

Although U3 is the number that is repeated ad nauseam by media morons, it is just an artifact of the Clinton era when they decided to exclude marginally attached workers from the calculation. U6 includes marginally attached workers, as seen below, U6 is closing in on 16% in the US. When you hear comparisons saying that current unemployment of 8.5% is nowhere near the 25% of the Great Depression it is a false comparison. U6 is a better measure and it is on track to hit 20% in the next 12 - 18 months.

The abs should follow the lead of the BLS and print alternative unemployment measures to give us a better idea of the true nature of unemployment and underemployment.

 

[Aussiejeff]

The abs should at least present alternative measures of employment as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics does. For the US, U3 is the most commonly cited figure for unemployment, however they publish other broader measures.

Although U3 is the number that is repeated ad nauseam by media morons, it is just an artifact of the Clinton era when they decided to exclude marginally attached workers from the calculation. U6 includes marginally attached workers, as seen below, U6 is closing in on 16% in the US. When you hear comparisons saying that current unemployment of 8.5% is nowhere near the 25% of the Great Depression it is a false comparison. U6 is a better measure and it is on track to hit 20% in the next 12 - 18 months.

The abs should follow the lead of the BLS and print alternative unemployment measures to give us a better idea of the true nature of unemployment and underemployment.

Agree totally, dhukka.

Good post.

 

[kincella]

quick survey....just say you lose your job...would you be prepared to work at safeway, or mcdonalds for about 10 ph...to keep you home and family going, or would you rather try living on the dole..single person about 450 pf

I know some people who believe they are too good for that sort of work even in the boom times....lots of jobs not good enough for them

now even though I have a passive income and work self employed part time....I would go to work for about 20 ph if needed to sustain my lifestyle

 

[tommymac]

quick survey....just say you lose your job...would you be prepared to work at safeway, or mcdonalds for about 10 ph...to keep you home and family going, or would you rather try living on the dole..single person about 450 pf

I know some people who believe they are too good for that sort of work even in the boom times....lots of jobs not good enough for them

now even though I have a passive income and work self employed part time....I would go to work for about 20 ph if needed to sustain my lifestyle

Work is work and money is money. I would do what is necessary and no job is below me.

I have heard some ex corporate managers have become drivers for Dominoes.

 

[Smurf1976]

quick survey....just say you lose your job...would you be prepared to work at safeway, or mcdonalds for about 10 ph...to keep you home and family going, or would you rather try living on the dole..single person about 450 pf

I know some people who believe they are too good for that sort of work even in the boom times....lots of jobs not good enough for them

With the exception of working with things likely to kill me (eg asbestos etc) I'd do anything.

I spend most of my working time Monday to Friday in the office and the rest tinkering with electrical / electronic things.

Then I work one day most weekends on the roads with shovel and jack hammer. I'll continue that until either the opportunity disappears or my debts have been reduced to zero. Sometimes I do both days but usually there isn't enough work.

McDonalds? Coles / Woolies? No probs if I didn't have a higher paying job I'd quite happily do that or just about anything else.

 

[tommymac]

I had a look at the unemployment data that was released today.

I noticed that the sample data used covers only 0.24% of the population. However 12 months ago the sample covered 0.45% of Australia's population.

Two questions for all you statistic gurus.

How reliable are these figures to determine the actual population that is unemployed? and

How comparable is the current rate to 12 months ago?

Cheers

 

[Soft Dough]

Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!

Please, don't worry yourself.

KRuddCo Pty Ltd (tm) will have it all in hand.

Under control.

No sweat!

I think his hand will eventually be stilled when Australia's credit rating begins to suffer ( and obviously that is why he is taxing the high income earners more )

I am going for between 9 and 10% unemployment, but hope it goes to 12-14%.

 

[Julia]

Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!

I think his hand will eventually be stilled when Australia's credit rating begins to suffer ( and obviously that is why he is taxing the high income earners more )

I am going for between 9 and 10% unemployment, but hope it goes to 12-14%.

Why do you hope it goes higher?

 

[Soft Dough]

Re: Jobs,jobs,jobs !!!

Why do you hope it goes higher?

1. I think Australians need a reality check. It should not be so easy to make money, and a fall int he housing market will lead to more reasonable risk assessment when people borrow huge amounts of money.

This will be a benefit for the future strength of investment. It will temper Gen X and Y for preparation for other real challenges.

My culturally acceptable reason / explanation

2. So that prices of everything drop and I can use my cash reserves to pounce on other people's stupidity and make a fortune.

My culturally unacceptable reason explanation ( well according to the hypocrites it is anyway )

 

[Beej]

I had a look at the unemployment data that was released today.

I noticed that the sample data used covers only 0.24% of the population. However 12 months ago the sample covered 0.45% of Australia's population.

Two questions for all you statistic gurus.

How reliable are these figures to determine the actual population that is unemployed? and

How comparable is the current rate to 12 months ago?

Cheers

According to the ABS release notes: The 95% confidence interval for the -0.3% change in the unemployment rate is -0.7% and 0.1%.

Due to the smaller sample size, these confidence intervals are probably about twice as wide as they used to be. Still, even with that spread it is almost certain (ie ~95% probability) that the rate of unemployment was flat to down in this past month.

Overall a very encouraging bit of economic data for those of us who hope for the best outcome for the local economy in these difficult times. I can't believe that there really are people who actually wish for high unemployment!! You have no idea what you are wishing for.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Mr J]

I agree with Softdough for the need of financial tough love. If we are to learn, we're most likely to learn after experiencing downside. Gen X, and especially Gen Y, are in great position to learn about financial responsibility, and those lessons could carry though 40-50 years of power. Unfortunately, I don't think it will make much difference, as lessons are usually discarded when times become good again.

That said, I like financial irresponsibility as long as it doesn't bring down the system. It creates opportunity for those that are responsible.

 

[aleckara]

Overall a very encouraging bit of economic data for those of of us who hope for the best outcome for the local economy in these difficult times. I can't believe that there really are people who actually wish for high unemployment!! You have no idea what you are wishing for.

Cheers,

Beej

I think the main people who are wishing for it are the people like I said in a previous post on another thread are people that aren't in the housing market or know that they won't enjoy the above inflation returns enjoyed by many for the last 30 years and be locked in at the current high prices. I can understand their sentiment; affordability should never be calculated on how much you can borrow. Rudd with the FHBG stopped house prices from falling pretty successfully by further withdrawing on the nation's credit card which of course will be handed down to future generations who didn't get the benefit of the debt inflating their assets (in fact they will have to pay more for them).

A lot of people were probably hoping unemployment went up as it was the only thing that could lower house prices. Looks like the government wins again.

 

[Lucky_Country]

I think the end of the job losses is far from over.

The rise in employment today is maybe due to such a big fall in the previous months data and we are finding a level to follow.

Still 12 months of job losses left imo.

 

[alwaysLearning]

I think the end of the job losses is far from over.

The rise in employment today is maybe due to such a big fall in the previous months data and we are finding a level to follow.

Still 12 months of job losses left imo.

yeah, far from over. I agree.

 

[MrBurns]

The figures must be distorted somehow, people are being sacked every day not employed.

 

[Beej]

I think the end of the job losses is far from over.

The rise in employment today is maybe due to such a big fall in the previous months data and we are finding a level to follow.

Still 12 months of job losses left imo.

yeah, far from over. I agree.

The figures must be distorted somehow, people are being sacked every day not employed.

You are all probably right - but the slower the rise the better IMO.

PS: Anecdotes: I know several people in Sydney who have been laid off jobs (late last year) - but they have all managed to find new jobs by Feb this year. I know one person in Brisbane who got laid off and has not yet found a new one, however his partner runs a successful business which is still doing very well so he is fine.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[lusk]

The figures must be distorted somehow, people are being sacked every day not employed.

Some company's when they announce redundancy's may also take a few months before they actually wind up work and become unemployed.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Time will tell what the heck it all means??

"It's bad form to disbelieve a data point that doesn't fit with your own view. But I'm going to do that -- I don't believe today's number," said Gerard Minack, economist at Morgan Stanley.
"I think the leading indicators, the anecdotes, the announcements are right: jobs are being lost," he added.

The fall in Australian unemployment should be taken with a "large grain of salt," as the data doesn't match evidence from the broader economy, said Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie Bank.
There is a high chance that the April employment data represents a statistical aberration, Redican said. "You do have to really question whether this is a one off monthly aberration."

 

[dhukka]

Time will tell what the heck it all means??

As always one month's data does not make a trend. The trend data clearly shows unemployment rising and jobs being lost, as does all the leading indicators of employment.

This is not the first time we've seen a sharp u-turn in the data, it happened twice just before and during the early 90's recession. More here

 

[Timmy]

"It's bad form to disbelieve a data point that doesn't fit with your own view. But I'm going to do that -- I don't believe today's number," said Gerard Minack, economist at Morgan Stanley.


Good find Uncle. I am going to paraphrase it and say it is probably not good form either to disbelieve a data point that DOES fit with my own view (which is that the Australian economy is not in as bad a shape as the consensus would have), but yeah, yesterday's figures are not credible.

As always one month's data does not make a trend. The trend data clearly shows unemployment rising and jobs being lost, as does all the leading indicators of employment.

This is not the first time we've seen a sharp u-turn in the data, it happened twice just before and during the early 90's recession. More here

Nice graph and points thank dhukka.