wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Wise!I don't subscribe to or eat cat food so I guess I'll miss out
Is THIS the big one?
- Thread starter BradK
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Its only early days imo. First the financial markets melt down and then the general economy and there can be quite a delay between the two - particularly when the US government and other governments keep taking on the bad debt and pretending everythings fine. The biggest risk is if the US govt is taking on more bad debt than it can actually manage and I hate to think of what the real consequences of that will be. It will be years before we've seen this whole event play out imo.
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by bailing out now and jumping back on board at the height of the next bull market
I never said that.
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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I resent being called old.
Sorry middle aged.
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wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Yes.
The delusion is that this will shake everything out and all will be back to normal in six months.
We won't see a 2005-2007 style economy again for a very very long time.
The problem I see happening now is that while we're currently having a shakeout of all the companies who have loaded up on excessive debt and poor management, the next step could be a shakeout of people who are loaded up on debt - you know the ones - huge mortgage which has been redrawn a number of times, car loan, credit card & store card debt, little or no savings - this already appears to be happening in the US.
Especially as this mess starts to flow through to the economy and unemployment starts to rise.
Thanks Pistol. Amazing stuff
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Wherever I look, from the global economy to my local area, what I've been seeing is much the same. All sorts of non-productive and wasteful "investments" and a general attitude that money is unlimited, debt doesn't matter and growth will continue uninterrupted forever.
It's become decidedly unfashionable in recent times to be concerned about the cost of just about anything. When's the last time you heard anyone from an individual to a major corporation basing a major purchase or investment decision on cost? These days it's location, performance, style, replacing new for old for the sake of it and so on. Cost just doesn't rate a mention - a sure sign things are way out of hand with the markets and general economy.
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It's an intersting clip to look at again after having seen what has happened recently.
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Where are the people spruicking the fundamentals in our two rising nations of India and China? I feel there will be a long period of insecurity and plenty of dead cat bounces to keep the keen and savvy happy with quick flipping of stock. People will be looking for good news soon and I feel there will be a stampede to the first commodities that show some good reports.
cheers,
cheers,
Hi all,I am new to at all this stuff,but surely the buck stops with ALAN GREENSPAND, who created this monster in the first place,he didn't have the balls or was to lazy to get off his fat ass to regulate the markets.I really think that BUSH & GREENSPAND have a lot to answer for,first for sending the world into a reccession,but even into a depression.
And how do I explain to my kids,that if the latter should happen,then wwIII maybe just around the corner.
How sad that these 2 people have crippled the world liked this.We all know that the next wwIII will 100x the magnitude of the other to wars.
God help us
And how do I explain to my kids,that if the latter should happen,then wwIII maybe just around the corner.
How sad that these 2 people have crippled the world liked this.We all know that the next wwIII will 100x the magnitude of the other to wars.
God help us
Hi all,I am new to at all this stuff,but surely the buck stops with ALAN GREENSPAND, who created this monster in the first place,he didn't have the balls or was to lazy to get off his fat ass to regulate the markets.I really think that BUSH & GREENSPAND have a lot to answer for,first for sending the world into a reccession,but even into a depression.
And how do I explain to my kids,that if the latter should happen,then wwIII maybe just around the corner.
How sad that these 2 people have crippled the world liked this.We all know that the next wwIII will 100x the magnitude of the other to wars.
God help us
Just kick back mate. Dont think WWIII is around the corner with Bush going. Perhaps Obama will be a bit of a peacenik. Although, it has emerged that McCain is firmly planted up the asses of the neo-cons now - so that is a real possiblity I suppose.
Whatever happens... Rudd will get the blame I suppose.
Kick back.
There was an old guy (probably 70 odd years old) on both Seven and ABC news. He said that he had been "investing for 50 years and never seen it this bad" however when asked if he will be selling he replied "No, I've been through this several times before".
That old blokes wise words summed it up for me. If your in this market you may as well hold on and while your at it gain both experience and eventually your money back. He certainly had
Cheers
He's one old guy in thousands of investors. He said he hadn't seen it this bad, yet he is continuing to hold. His decision, but past performance may not repeat itself this time.
The market may recover, and probably will. But, the question is, how long is it going to take? And, what if you need the money in the meantime? You will have to sell out at a loss. And, what could you have been doing with that same money in the meantime? Putting it into investment accounts, getting nearly 8% interest on it.
I hope he lives long enough to see it recover
I'm actually wondering if this could happen in a small way in our economy. I had this conversation with my hairdressor yesterday (okay, some hairdressers do think!). He was saying that he knows loads of people who live on credit card debt.
That's when i'll swoop in and buy another house! Hehe.
My guess is 5 years to reach 6800 on our index again, and 10 years until the next big boom. I'd love to be wrong however..
The danger with picking up stocks now as 'bargains' is that there could be 2 years of pain in the real economy before profits once again increase. At the moment we are still basing everything off "boom time" profits, or close to it in our rear window. If we cut profits by 50% on some major companies, we can maybe guess where it will ultimately take us in 2 years, or maybe even a few past that.
Therefore, even if stocks may bottom somewhere in the next few months in this current bear, the profit reductions may continue to drag down many stocks for years and years. It took well untiil the mid-90s for true recovery from the last major global recession in the 1990/1991.
As we've seen with the collapse so far, everything comes down to property as the base assets for many economies. What happens with that here may decide in some ways how things go from here. If property values tip over some imaginary edge in the near future, the recovery will be a long time coming.
Even our RBA has come out the other day saying these wild boom/bust periods is the wrong course of action (that they created). Whether they act out on that we shall have to see.
The danger with picking up stocks now as 'bargains' is that there could be 2 years of pain in the real economy before profits once again increase. At the moment we are still basing everything off "boom time" profits, or close to it in our rear window. If we cut profits by 50% on some major companies, we can maybe guess where it will ultimately take us in 2 years, or maybe even a few past that.
Therefore, even if stocks may bottom somewhere in the next few months in this current bear, the profit reductions may continue to drag down many stocks for years and years. It took well untiil the mid-90s for true recovery from the last major global recession in the 1990/1991.
As we've seen with the collapse so far, everything comes down to property as the base assets for many economies. What happens with that here may decide in some ways how things go from here. If property values tip over some imaginary edge in the near future, the recovery will be a long time coming.
Even our RBA has come out the other day saying these wild boom/bust periods is the wrong course of action (that they created). Whether they act out on that we shall have to see.
Julia
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I agree. But this is something that's mediated also by someone's age.
A young person with most of their investing life ahead can ride it out, but someone who is needing to draw a pension from their capital soon needs to preserve that capital.
The other factor is the 'sleep test'. I would be getting zero slumber if I were fully invested in this market.
Mint Man, that's not a very logical response. Why wouldn't you invest in a rising market? And then exit when the trend turns down?Well in that case you wouldn't invest to start with
Call me when you know where the bottom is and again when we reach the top
Cheers
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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It took until 1957 for the share market to return to 1930 levels and every 60 years there is a depression.
Now how do I buy Gold shares?
From Money Managers.
negative real interest rates are bearish for the dollar. And when you hold dollars, you're losing out to inflation.
Period.
I haven't even begun to tell you the real nightmares for the U.S. dollar. I haven't even touched upon the $50 trillion in contingent liabilities in Social Security, Medicare, government pensions, money the FDIC will need, and more.
And there is no way, no how that any of these debts, liabilities, potential losses will ever be covered without a massive, ongoing devaluation of the U.S. dollar.
So why would you NOT want to own gold in this environment?
Gold is the only true form of money.
Gold is the only true form of money there is. It is no one else's liability. It has no board of directors manipulating its value. It has preserved its purchasing power for over 5,000 years of civilization. It has outperformed every paper currency on the planet.
Given all of the above, and more, I am now officially putting out an emergency buy signal in gold.
”” If you don't own any gold, I urge you to buy some now.
”” If you do own gold, I suggest you buy more, immediately!
The precious yellow metal ”” your vehicle to survive financially in the years ahead ”” recently fell back to major support at the $735 level.
It has since rallied back to $785. I believe the pullback I've been warning you about is now over.
But even if I'm wrong, and by some crazy fluke, the price of gold falls back to major long-term support at the $600 level, it would not be that big a deal.
Because I know that paper dollars are NOT where I want my money.
I
Now how do I buy Gold shares?
From Money Managers.
negative real interest rates are bearish for the dollar. And when you hold dollars, you're losing out to inflation.
Period.
I haven't even begun to tell you the real nightmares for the U.S. dollar. I haven't even touched upon the $50 trillion in contingent liabilities in Social Security, Medicare, government pensions, money the FDIC will need, and more.
And there is no way, no how that any of these debts, liabilities, potential losses will ever be covered without a massive, ongoing devaluation of the U.S. dollar.
So why would you NOT want to own gold in this environment?
Gold is the only true form of money.
Gold is the only true form of money there is. It is no one else's liability. It has no board of directors manipulating its value. It has preserved its purchasing power for over 5,000 years of civilization. It has outperformed every paper currency on the planet.
Given all of the above, and more, I am now officially putting out an emergency buy signal in gold.
”” If you don't own any gold, I urge you to buy some now.
”” If you do own gold, I suggest you buy more, immediately!
The precious yellow metal ”” your vehicle to survive financially in the years ahead ”” recently fell back to major support at the $735 level.
It has since rallied back to $785. I believe the pullback I've been warning you about is now over.
But even if I'm wrong, and by some crazy fluke, the price of gold falls back to major long-term support at the $600 level, it would not be that big a deal.
Because I know that paper dollars are NOT where I want my money.
I
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The problem with the Cramer tirade is blaming the Fed and saying the Fed should bale out everybody and laying no blame on the greed of the investment banks.
I think that the problem with the Fed is that they allowed these shysters to operate freely for so long. The problem now is that the Fed has to bail out these companies so that the entire market doesn't fold.
I mean this is a very bad situation but it is not the first time that these companies and ratings agencies have done something similar (Think Junk Bonds). You would have thought by now that the Fed would have figured that you cannot trust any of these guys.
I think that the problem with the Fed is that they allowed these shysters to operate freely for so long. The problem now is that the Fed has to bail out these companies so that the entire market doesn't fold.
I mean this is a very bad situation but it is not the first time that these companies and ratings agencies have done something similar (Think Junk Bonds). You would have thought by now that the Fed would have figured that you cannot trust any of these guys.
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Ok do you mean physical gold or shares of some kind ? and if the former, how ?
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