Is THIS the big one?

[BradK]

OK.

Lloyds TSB have just brought HBOS.
AIG taken back from the brink by another US government buyout
$450 BILLION dollars injected into the system just now.

Is THIS the big one?

Brad

 

[a5e0i]

This is bigger than the crash of 87 and bigger than the depression - for even then the large financial institutions held up. But not this time.

 

[wayneL]

None of us know whether the stock market will crash further from here as there can often (almost always?) be a disconnect between stock prices and economic reality.

But recession is a dead cert. Depression a distinct possibility.

One thing is absolutely 100% guaranteed though; that is that the world has permanently changed and the exact consequences will take a while to shake out.

 

[Aussiejeff]

This is bigger than the crash of 87 and bigger than the depression - for even then the large financial institutions held up. But not this time.

Bigger than the depression? Maybe in purely monetary volume terms (I don't know the figures, so pure conjecture?), but surely not in the impact on daily lives!

When I see hundreds of thousands of unemployed citizens lining up at soup kitchens in all the worlds major cities, for year after terrible year, and tens of thousands of businesses have actually gone bust - not merely been "rescued" by government funded "bail-outs" - then yes, then I might tend to agree with the sentiment.

We are still "a million miles" from that terrible scenario that my mum and dad experienced. Most major stocks still have "value". Unlike many in the depression where the scrip was worthless paper. So, gawd help us all if it *really* gets down to that point again..... I repeat... the REALITY of that time is far removed from what we who live in today's cottonwool societies might imagine a *depression* to be.


aj

 

[jersey10]

None of us know whether the stock market will crash further from here as there can often (almost always?) be a disconnect between stock prices and economic reality.

But recession is a dead cert. Depression a distinct possibility.

One thing is absolutely 100% guaranteed though; that is that the world has permanently changed and the exact consequences will take a while to shake out.

what do you think those consequences may be?

 

[a5e0i]

I didn't mean to imply that this is as bad as the depression. Just that even during the depression the large financial institutions were able to withstand the turmoil, though with heavy losses. This time round many of the largest institutions are going belly up.

 

[pistol72]

brad
have a squizz at chrismartenson.com,recomended by others on this site.some quality stuff.
P

 

[wayneL]

what do you think those consequences may be?

I would only be guessing, and it will depend on the actions of a whole bunch of different participants, but a return to the type of economy we had in 2007 is impossible for a very long time. IMO

 

[alwaysLearning]

The problems seems to be a lack in liquidity.

I think it is just HUGE fear at the moment. There is still great value to be bought.

Having said that I sure as heck would NOT be looking to 'catch a falling knife'. I'd wait for it to bottom out and then start to recover and then jump in.

They need to create a serate entity where they can through all the crap debt in there and then sort it out later. The central banks of the world need to inject a LOT more money to get the liquidity flowing. They then may need to cut interest rates (all around the world) to stimulate growth in the global economy.

It's a hard one though because it was the excessive spending that created these problems in the first place.

I don't know what the long term answer is but they NEED to do something to give people CONFIDENCE in order to want to start investing and trading. They neeed that seperate entity and to fill it with bad debt as a matter for priority.

 

[The Mint Man]

There was an old guy (probably 70 odd years old) on both Seven and ABC news. He said that he had been "investing for 50 years and never seen it this bad" however when asked if he will be selling he replied "No, I've been through this several times before".

That old blokes wise words summed it up for me. If your in this market you may as well hold on and while your at it gain both experience and eventually your money back. He certainly had

Cheers

 

[Trembling Hand]

There was an old guy (probably 70 odd years old) on both Seven and ABC news. He said that he had been "investing for 50 years and never seen it this bad" however when asked if he will be selling he replied "No, I've been through this several times before".

That old blokes wise words summed it up for me. If your in this market you may as well hold on and while your at it gain both experience and eventually your money back. He certainly had

Cheers

How do you know. He could of been some old homeless pathological liar gone nuts. :

 

[The Mint Man]

How do you know. He could of been some old homeless pathological liar gone nuts. :

Haha, true...
He was sitting in the ASX building at the time which gives him more credibility than those other hotshot liars that you see on the TV or in the Papers everyday.
Of course I'm referring to those so called 'financial experts' who told us to invest in the first place.:

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

There was an old guy (probably 70 odd years old) on both Seven and ABC news. He said that he had been "investing for 50 years and never seen it this bad" however when asked if he will be selling he replied "No, I've been through this several times before".

That old blokes wise words summed it up for me. If your in this market you may as well hold on and while your at it gain both experience and eventually your money back. He certainly had

Cheers

Yeah but no.

Extrapolating that out to its absurd end, he is suggesting never selling HIH, PAS, LEH, BSC, etc etc etc

There is a time to sell.

 

[alwaysLearning]

There was an old guy (probably 70 odd years old) on both Seven and ABC news. He said that he had been "investing for 50 years and never seen it this bad" however when asked if he will be selling he replied "No, I've been through this several times before".

That old blokes wise words summed it up for me. If your in this market you may as well hold on and while your at it gain both experience and eventually your money back. He certainly had

Cheers

I disagree. Right from the begining people need to be thinking about capital preservation. One can always Re-enter the market when the sentiment changes.

 

[skyQuake]

How do you know. He could of been some old homeless pathological liar gone nuts. :

I resent being called old.

:

 

[The Mint Man]

I disagree. Right from the begining people need to be thinking about capital preservation. One can always Re-enter the market when the sentiment changes.

Well in that case you wouldn't invest to start with

Call me when you know where the bottom is and again when we reach the top

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

Well in that case you wouldn't invest to start with

Call me when you know where the bottom is and again when we reach the top

Cheers

Whiskers will let us know.

 

[alwaysLearning]

Well in that case you wouldn't invest to start with

Call me when you know where the bottom is and again when we reach the top

Cheers

You'll never know for sure (if you try to choose exact tops and bottoms) but you can sure as hell tell when sentiment like this shifts. It's negative all hell at the moment. Also best to just watch the chart and look at volatility indicators and things like that. When the volatility starts to slow down and things calm down THEN start looking at good value stocks or whatever you're looking to invest in. If you're an investor.

Personally I love spot Forex and this volatility is awesome I'm working hard on my skills in demo trading so that I can hopefully get off to a decent start on a live account

 

[cutz]

I disagree. Right from the begining people need to be thinking about capital preservation. One can always Re-enter the market when the sentiment changes.

by bailing out now and jumping back on board at the height of the next bull market

 

[The Mint Man]

Whiskers will let us know.

I don't subscribe to or eat cat food so I guess I'll miss out