Is the market about to take another HIT?

[jet-r]

1) the index is right on the trend line at the moment.

2) the Fibonacci retracement has reached back to 38.2% of the total length of the correction.

3) Its just slighly above the resistance of 5082.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

The key, of course, will be the US indicies.

The S&P doesn't look overly concerning ATM, but the NASDAQ is sitting at key support with VXN (nasdaq IV index) starting to creep up. Nasdaq can be a leading indicator of the overall market. That said, this support could hold and stage a rally, but, VXN is indicating a little bit of worry.

Will update with a chart a bit later.

 

[kevo]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Well, 2000 marked the grand super cycle top which would normally have been followed by a severe recession while creative destruction did its thing but it was politically impossible. Greenspan lowered rates to 1% which combined with the BOJ's ZIRP created a massive asset boom in housing and trillions of dollars of malinvestment. The past three years have been making progress to a B wave top. We began C wave down in May. When the US market goes down don't forget to buy unhedged gold producers at the bottom. We are at the end of multple credit expansions and the degree of malinvestment is now so heavy all the money printing in the world won't support it. In the next few weeks the trend will resolve with a massive strong down move.

That's my call, anyway.

Kevo the big green bear.

www.kontentkonsult.com

 

[lewstherin]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

I'm itching to short the likes of RIO, OXR, ZFX but holding on for some confirmation from various sources.

In my gut I have a feeling stocks are walking a tight-rope at present - particularly as a housing slowdown starts to pull US consumers back from feeling so cashed up. I think Aussie fundamentals remain strong, but if the US goes down, ASX will follow (ala May-June).

From a bear perspective, another Fed rate hike (or a rumour thereof) could do the trick. Sentiment is what it may come down to I guess.

Staying out for now...but something has got to give in the US of A. And if the Yanks aren't spending, whos going to buy all of the cheap goods China/India is putting out?

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Well, 2000 marked the grand super cycle top which would normally have been followed by a severe recession while creative destruction did its thing but it was politically impossible. Greenspan lowered rates to 1% which combined with the BOJ's ZIRP created a massive asset boom in housing and trillions of dollars of malinvestment. The past three years have been making progress to a B wave top. We began C wave down in May. When the US market goes down don't forget to buy unhedged gold producers at the bottom. We are at the end of multple credit expansions and the degree of malinvestment is now so heavy all the money printing in the world won't support it. In the next few weeks the trend will resolve with a massive strong down move.

That's my call, anyway.

Kevo the big green bear.

www.kontentkonsult.com

DAMN I like that bear talk!!!

 

[swingstar]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

I'm waiting to see what the Dow does. It's currently sitting on strong resistance around 11200-11300. My view is bearish at least for the coming weeks. If true, could it be enough to send it down?

 

[kevo]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

RIO, OXR, ZFX

Don't short those guys. They are the only thing still likely to go up. Short MAP or TEN or Multiplex. Commodities are in the opposite of of a cyclical bear. They might get a quick wack before they come pilling back...

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

RIO, OXR, ZFX

Don't short those guys. They are the only thing still likely to go up. Short MAP or TEN or Multiplex. Commodities are in the opposite of of a cyclical bear. They might get a quick wack before they come pilling back...

Good point, commodities not yet, maybe next yr or 2, where they will probably all crash as well

Btw u left out BHP, is there a reason?

thx

MS

 

[Brissydave]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

The DOW has fallen through recent support at 10900, - gold, silver, and oil are the only commodities in the green - is this going to be a bad day or what ????

 

[Sean K]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

It's going to be bloody. 60pts maybe.

Go gold, oil, and uranium!

 

[jet-r]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

ouch!!!!!

this is the hit I was talking about.
100 pts so far....

 

[RickG]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

ouch!!!!!

this is the hit I was talking about.
100 pts so far....

Ohh you managed to predict the problems in Israel??? Maybe you should go work for the United Nations.

Sorry todays drop has nothing to do with All Ord trend lines, Fibonacci retracement or resistent lines. Its to do with problems in the Middle East and worries about interest rates.

 

[flyhigher]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

anyone benefit from plunge? the markets become volatile now.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Ohh you managed to predict the problems in Israel??? Maybe you should go work for the United Nations.

Sorry todays drop has nothing to do with All Ord trend lines, Fibonacci retracement or resistent lines. Its to do with problems in the Middle East and worries about interest rates.

It's just exposed a structurally weak market, that's why a hit was fairly predictable. All it needed was a trigger, any trigger.

If the market was confident the ME would be ignored.

Cheers

 

[jet-r]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Ohh you managed to predict the problems in Israel??? Maybe you should go work for the United Nations.

Sorry todays drop has nothing to do with All Ord trend lines, Fibonacci retracement or resistent lines. Its to do with problems in the Middle East and worries about interest rates.

Which part of my post suggested that I was "PREDICTING?" the fall today? The market's movement is a result of technical and fundamental influences, the Israel product is unpredictable but the chart did generate some signals for an upcoming fall.

I am simply trying to sharing some info and express my point of view here. Sarcastic comment like yours doesnt contribute to this forum.

 

[RickG]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Wayne, yea I agree. Its just that using the XAO index to predict the market is a pet hate of mine is all. Yes the market is weak atm and will probably stay like this until their is some certainty again in interest rates. Therefore you should be trading accordingly (ie conservatively), but you dont need the XAO to tell you this.

But that is probably best left for another thread.

Sorry, re-reading my last post I did come across a bit angry ant didnt I

 

[chennyleeeee]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

I dont think anything will happen. IMO i think that the market will make back what it lost today. If you look at the BHP daily graph todays movement was predictable and it seems it will close quite higher than its low.

CHEN

 

[Magdoran]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

I dont think anything will happen. IMO i think that the market will make back what it lost today. If you look at the BHP daily graph todays movement was predictable and it seems it will close quite higher than its low.

CHEN

Tend to agree for the short term… today’s price action looks exhaustive and volume is low (but I could be wrong – certainly the indexes are looking vulnerable to a significant move down – I suspect not quite yet). I’d expect a couple of inside days.

If we get another rally and it fails, that may spell a bearish run.

RIO, OXR, ZFX

Don't short those guys. They are the only thing still likely to go up. Short MAP or TEN or Multiplex. Commodities are in the opposite of of a cyclical bear. They might get a quick wack before they come pilling back...

Agree on the commodities - they have been rallying currently, have a look at the comments in the commodity area – I’ve got a couple on oil and copper currently… just my musings. I’m waiting for a clear pattern. If I was shorting, I’d be looking at weak stocks in weak sectors…

This is a time for caution and limited risk. If the market capitulates down, it will probably be a significant panic move, quite a wild horse to ride even if on the bearish side.

Regards


Magdoran

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

This is a time for caution and limited risk. If the market capitulates down, it will probably be a significant panic move, quite a wild horse to ride even if on the bearish side.

Regards


Magdoran

I'm hoping for some inside days and a brief rally based on the positions I have. But it's all eyes on Israel (WTF are those people thinking?) and the Middle East.. oil, AND interest rate fears.

But where's all the socionomics followers? I thought all the Prochterites would be coming out being very smug.

Look at the social mood FFS!!! Wars, inflation fears, fear of terrorism, personal freedoms inexorably stripped away, bird flu, house prices on the verge of collapse, ludicrous personal debt/personal bankruptcies skyrocketing, young people worried about ever owning a house, extreme polarization in politics etc etc.

The social mood is lousy folks. We in bear territory here.

Cheers

 

[Realist]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

I'm itching to short the likes of RIO, OXR, ZFX but holding on for some confirmation from various sources.

Why on earth short RIO and ZFX?