Is the market about to take another HIT?

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Why on earth short RIO and ZFX?

Because when folks realise that the China economy still relies on USA, they will dump.

 

[lewstherin]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Why on earth short RIO and ZFX?

RIO is more of a pure minerals (i.e. no major oil/gas interests) play than BHP, so would theoretically be more susceptable to a global downturn in demand. RIO may have secured iron ore price increases, but they still need buyers to move product. If the global economy slows, China's need for input materials slows, RIO sells less than expected. Same goes for ZFX, assuming steel production slows.
BHP is at least cushioned to an extent by oil, gas and uranium.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

RIO is more of a pure minerals (i.e. no major oil/gas interests) play than BHP, so would theoretically be more susceptable to a global downturn in demand. RIO may have secured iron ore price increases, but they still need buyers to move product. If the global economy slows, China's need for input materials slows, RIO sells less than expected. Same goes for ZFX, assuming steel production slows.
BHP is at least cushioned to an extent by oil, gas and uranium.

Good point, and if the metals tank, it'll make a great short candidate... I'm just watching those commodities... especially copper!



Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

I'm hoping for some inside days and a brief rally based on the positions I have. But it's all eyes on Israel (WTF are those people thinking?) and the Middle East.. oil, AND interest rate fears.

But where's all the socionomics followers? I thought all the Prochterites would be coming out being very smug.

Look at the social mood FFS!!! Wars, inflation fears, fear of terrorism, personal freedoms inexorably stripped away, bird flu, house prices on the verge of collapse, ludicrous personal debt/personal bankruptcies skyrocketing, young people worried about ever owning a house, extreme polarization in politics etc etc.

The social mood is lousy folks. We in bear territory here.

Cheers

Hello Wayne,


While not wanting to sound like a pessimist, I agree with the main thrust of your comments. The biggest problem we face besides hostilities is the impact of Crude oil peaking, and the potential for the full weight of economic structural adjustment depending on when the production tapers off, and how fast.

Also, all the factors you refer too are certainly worth considering, and I am certainly aware of the potential for a major correction…


Regards


Magdoran

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

The biggest problem we face besides hostilities is the impact of Crude oil peaking, and the potential for the full weight of economic structural adjustment depending on when the production tapers off, and how fast.

LOL How could I forget that one.

not wanting to sound like a pessimist

[toungue in cheek rant] In our society we have been trained by american (or amaricanized) motivational speakers to reject any sort of "pessimism" as an apostasy. Consequently lots of folks don't want to see the risks.

Folks who know I'm a trader often ask my view of the market. Earlier this year I said, expect a correction and expect it to be substantial, when, I don't know, but expect it at some stage.

I was shunned as a neg-head and a traitor to the australian (american) way, told I was nuts, what about china, india.... I've just sunk $400,000 of borrowed money into the market! It's going UP goddammit!!! Understand!!!!

So yes, don't sound like a pessimist fer gawds sake!![/toungue in cheek rant]

: Cheers

 

[Realist]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Because when folks realise that the China economy still relies on USA, they will dump.

How long can you short it for? It may take a while for folks to realise this, like years.

Actually here's a question...

What if you short a stock and it payed out a 4% dividend and the price drops 4% accordingly - how does that affect your short position. who gets the dividend?

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

How long can you short it for? It may take a while for folks to realise this, like years.

Actually here's a question...

What if you short a stock and it payed out a 4% dividend and the price drops 4% accordingly - how does that affect your short position. who gets the dividend?

A person who is short physical shares must borrow those shares from the broker.

Therefore the person who is short the shares must pay the dividend to the owner of the shares.

Cheers

 

[globalreverb]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Re: Did anyone make any money out of this XAO decline today.

My CQT shares rose 50% today, so I bailed out of half my holding.
More good news to come on Monday. Conquest was only one of a handful of spec juniors to post a gain on the ASX today I would guess.

Regards, Rob.

p.s. and a big Hi to Magdoran.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

It's just exposed a structurally weak market, that's why a hit was fairly predictable. All it needed was a trigger, any trigger.

If the market was confident the ME would be ignored.

Cheers

Agreed there WayneL. IMO markets make the news, not the reverse.

On any given day there is ALWAYS some valid explanation for why the market went up, down or sideways. Which one the commentators use depends on what the market actually did rather than the news itself.

For example today could be described as (depending on what the market had actually done):

"Market plunges on ME fears"

"Stocks up on oil, gold"

"Market stable as investors expect rising oil prices to delay rate rise"

Which one to use depends on the market itself, not what actually happened in the world today.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

A person who is short physical shares must borrow those shares from the broker.

Therefore the person who is short the shares must pay the dividend to the owner of the shares.

Interestingly, as any options trader will know, people like Wayne and I can actually make money if the market just goes sideways or down if we use a credit position, like selling a call (but suggest using a hedged strategy like a bear call spread or maybe a ratio version to limit risk rather than go “naked”) to take advantage of a bearish/sideways market.

Shorting shares is a very risky process in my view, much easier to just buy a put or adopt a bearish strategy to limit risk, why run the risk of owing the dividend?


Regards



Magdoran

P.S. Hello globalreverb! How do you like ASF?

 

[visual]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Looks like Israel is already talking cease fire,lets hope so,

 

[visual]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

unfortunately doesnt look like anyone in the DOW is reading the papers.

 

[swingstar]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

****e! That's what I like to see.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

unfortunately doesnt look like anyone in the DOW is reading the papers.

I guess they decided to do something really different and read their balance sheets

: :

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

I guess they decided to do something really different and read their balance sheets

: :

Wayne ithink u are a happy bear!

CAnt believe this guy below might be right

http://www.depression2007.com/contact.htm

thx

MS

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Wayne ithink u are a happy bear!

CAnt believe this guy below might be right

http://www.depression2007.com/contact.htm

thx

MS

Ah! a socionomics adherant. It was just like reading Prechter.

I really think there is a lot to it

 

[swingstar]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

I like that guy's way of thinking.

Socionomics... where has it been all my life?!

 

[swingstar]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Looks like Israel is already talking cease fire,lets hope so,

Yeah, they sound determined.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

Yeah, they sound determined.

This is insane!! ...how many innocents are going to lose their lives now?

Sheesh!

 

[jemma]

Re: Is the market about to take another HIT??

LOL How could I forget that one.



[toungue in cheek rant] In our society we have been trained by american (or amaricanized) motivational speakers to reject any sort of "pessimism" as an apostasy. Consequently lots of folks don't want to see the risks.

Folks who know I'm a trader often ask my view of the market. Earlier this year I said, expect a correction and expect it to be substantial, when, I don't know, but expect it at some stage.

I was shunned as a neg-head and a traitor to the australian (american) way, told I was nuts, what about china, india.... I've just sunk $400,000 of borrowed money into the market! It's going UP goddammit!!! Understand!!!!

So yes, don't sound like a pessimist fer gawds sake!![/toungue in cheek rant]

: Cheers

Wayne,

Excuse my ignorance but why have you just sunk 400 grand into the market???