Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

basilio · 1 August 2018

The concern about gloabal warming making large areas of the planet uninhabitable for people is growing. This research is about China and affects 400million people.
I wonder what the results would be if we did similar research for Queensland or central NSW?

Unsurvivable heatwaves could strike heart of China by end of century
The most populous region of the biggest polluter on Earth – China’s northern plain – will become uninhabitable in places if climate change is not curbed

Damian Carrington Environment editor

@dpcarrington
Tue 31 Jul 2018 16.28 BST First published on Tue 31 Jul 2018 16.21 BST

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Residents cool off at a pool in Jinan in eastern China’s Shandong province. Photograph: Ng Han Guan/AP
The deadliest place on the planet for extreme future heatwaves will be the north China plain, one of the most densely populated regions in the world and the most important food-producing area in the huge nation.

New scientific research shows that humid heatwaves that kill even healthy people within hours will strike the area repeatedly towards the end of the century thanks to climate change, unless there are heavy cuts in carbon emissions.

“This spot is going to be the hottest spot for deadly heatwaves in the future,” said Prof Elfatih Eltahir, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US, who led the new study. The projections for China’s northern plain are particularly worrying because many of the region’s 400 million people are farmers and have little alternative to working outside.

....
The new analysis assesses the impact of climate change on the deadly combination of heat and humidity, which is measured as the “wet bulb” temperature (WBT). Once the WBT reaches 35C, the air is so hot and humid that the human body cannot cool itself by sweating and even fit people sitting in the shade die within six hours.

A WBT above 31C is classed by the US National Weather Service as “extreme danger”, with its warning stating: “If you don’t take precautions immediately, you may become seriously ill or even die.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...area-could-be-uninhabitable-by-end-of-century

SirRumpole · 1 August 2018

Hottest July ever in Southern Queensland, worse to come with with higher humidity and hotter summer.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-01/qld-weather-temperatures-break-records-july-maximums/10056288

Tisme · 1 August 2018

basilio said:
The concern about gloabal warming making large areas of the planet uninhabitable for people is growing. This research is about China and affects 400million people.
I wonder what the results would be if we did similar research for Queensland or central NSW?

Unsurvivable heatwaves could strike heart of China by end of century
The most populous region of the biggest polluter on Earth – China’s northern plain – will become uninhabitable in places if climate change is not curbed

Damian Carrington Environment editor

@dpcarrington
Tue 31 Jul 2018 16.28 BST First published on Tue 31 Jul 2018 16.21 BST

Shares
624

Residents cool off at a pool in Jinan in eastern China’s Shandong province. Photograph: Ng Han Guan/AP
The deadliest place on the planet for extreme future heatwaves will be the north China plain, one of the most densely populated regions in the world and the most important food-producing area in the huge nation.

New scientific research shows that humid heatwaves that kill even healthy people within hours will strike the area repeatedly towards the end of the century thanks to climate change, unless there are heavy cuts in carbon emissions.

“This spot is going to be the hottest spot for deadly heatwaves in the future,” said Prof Elfatih Eltahir, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US, who led the new study. The projections for China’s northern plain are particularly worrying because many of the region’s 400 million people are farmers and have little alternative to working outside.

....
The new analysis assesses the impact of climate change on the deadly combination of heat and humidity, which is measured as the “wet bulb” temperature (WBT). Once the WBT reaches 35C, the air is so hot and humid that the human body cannot cool itself by sweating and even fit people sitting in the shade die within six hours.

A WBT above 31C is classed by the US National Weather Service as “extreme danger”, with its warning stating: “If you don’t take precautions immediately, you may become seriously ill or even die.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...area-could-be-uninhabitable-by-end-of-century

A global rise of about 12 degrees C would be req'd for that scenario.

basilio · 1 August 2018

Tisme said:
A global rise of about 12 degrees C would be req'd for that scenario.

Do you want to recheck that statement ?

Tisme · 1 August 2018

basilio said:
Do you want to recheck that statement ?

No I know my oats.

basilio · 1 August 2018

Tisme said:
No I know my oats.

Hmmn.. You might know your "oats" but saying that a global temperature increase of 12C is required to cause unsurvivable heatwaves in China just makes no sense.

Without even going to the original paper (which suggested local temperature increase of 3-4C) just being aware of the impact of a 6C increase in global temperatures would make on Earth would make you aware of the error of your statement.

How did you come to that conclusion anyway ?

https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees-A-Summary-Review
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y

Tisme · 1 August 2018

basilio said:
Hmmn.. You might know your "oats" but saying that a global temperature increase of 12C is required to cause unsurvivable heatwaves in China just makes no sense.

Without even going to the original paper (which suggested local temperature increase of 3-4C) just being aware of the impact of a 6C increase in global temperatures would make on Earth would make you aware of the error of your statement.

How did you come to that conclusion anyway ?

https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees-A-Summary-Review
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y

A higher level of understanding thermodynamics, adiabatic cooling, iso sciences and psychrometrics than common people.

Like to share a mug of Clausius-Clapeyron ?

Tisme · 1 August 2018

Hit the books yet bas?

basilio · 1 August 2018

Your just hopelessly and utterly wrong Tisme. I was hoping you might work that out with a small nudge - but apparently not. I'm not even going to try to waste my breath here.

There is no way in any ecosystem that the worlds temperatures have to rise 12C to create the killer heatwaves described in the Nature paper. For gods sake the world already approaches these conditions in some areas right now so the threshold is quite close - not another 12C of warming. Read the article I tabled. Use some logic. Find some common sense.

Model experiments and evaluation
Here, we use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Regional Climate Model (MRCM)26 with lateral boundary conditions obtained from simulations by a carefully selected set of global climate models from among those that participated in CMIP527 (see selection criteria described in the Methods section and Supplementary Table 1 for the list of global climate models and their details). We perform simulations for historical period (1975–2005), as well as future climate (2070–2100) assuming two scenarios of GHG emissions28 (BAU scenario (RCP8.5) and moderate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5)) (see Supplementary Fig. 1, Supplementary Information for simulations domain, and Supplementary Table 2). For the historical and future period, we performed six sets of simulations, with and without irrigation. By comparing the historical period simulations, with and without irrigation, we estimate the impact of irrigation on heatwaves in the historical climate period as described by the TW. The results of these simulations reveal a significant role for irrigation in enhancing the magnitude of extreme TWmax and hence the intensity of heatwaves. (By “extreme” we mean maximum simulated value over this period.) Over the irrigated region and NCP, the extreme TWmax over a 30-year period increases by about 0.5 and 0.3 °C, respectively, as a result of irrigation during historical period. This impact of irrigation is even larger, if we consider the average TWmax instead of extreme values, and more pronounced during the relatively drier months of early summer (May and June) (see Supplementary Figs. 2–4). These are the months when irrigation has the largest impact on land surface conditions.

Heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation
The impacts of climate change are significantly larger than those of irrigation. The extreme TWmax over irrigated area and NCP are projected to increase by an additional 3.4 and 3.3 °C, respectively, assuming a BAU scenario of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with irrigation, while increases of extreme TWmax are 2.9 and 3 °C over irrigated area NCP, respectively, without irrigation (Fig. 2). The spatial distribution of TWmax under current and future climate features three regions with significantly warmer conditions: the NCP close to the Eastern coast, the Yangtze river valley, and the Southern coast. All these regions are characterized by relatively low elevation (lower than 50 m) compared to the surrounding area (e.g., Yan Mountain and Yaihang Mountain (Fig. 1a)), which is a major factor explaining occurrence of relatively warm conditions. Over several locations in the NCP and along the Eastern coast of China, such as the areas around Weifang, Jining, Qingdao, Rizhao, Yantai, Shanghai, and Hangzhou under the BAU scenario, TWmax exceeds the critical threshold for human survival of 35 °C, during several episodes over a 30-year period (Fig. 3). Moderate climate change mitigation efforts, represented by the RCP4.5 scenario of GHG emissions, reduce the risk of such heatwaves significantly; however, deadly heatwaves are still projected even under those conditions, though significantly less frequent (Fig. 3). In interpretation of the results of this study, we emphasize that TWmax values as low as 30 °C would qualify as “Extremely Dangerous” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Service Heat Index (see Supplementary Table 6).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y

Tisme · 1 August 2018

basilio said:
Your just hopelessly and utterly wrong Tisme. I was hoping you might work that out with a small nudge - but apparently not. I'm not even going to try to waste my breath here.

There is no way in any ecosystem that the worlds temperatures have to rise 12C to create the killer heatwaves described in the Nature paper. For gods sake the world already approaches these conditions in some areas right now so the threshold is quite close - not another 12C of warming. Read the article I tabled. Use some logic. Find some common sense.

Model experiments and evaluation
Here, we use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Regional Climate Model (MRCM)26 with lateral boundary conditions obtained from simulations by a carefully selected set of global climate models from among those that participated in CMIP527 (see selection criteria described in the Methods section and Supplementary Table 1 for the list of global climate models and their details). We perform simulations for historical period (1975–2005), as well as future climate (2070–2100) assuming two scenarios of GHG emissions28 (BAU scenario (RCP8.5) and moderate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5)) (see Supplementary Fig. 1, Supplementary Information for simulations domain, and Supplementary Table 2). For the historical and future period, we performed six sets of simulations, with and without irrigation. By comparing the historical period simulations, with and without irrigation, we estimate the impact of irrigation on heatwaves in the historical climate period as described by the TW. The results of these simulations reveal a significant role for irrigation in enhancing the magnitude of extreme TWmax and hence the intensity of heatwaves. (By “extreme” we mean maximum simulated value over this period.) Over the irrigated region and NCP, the extreme TWmax over a 30-year period increases by about 0.5 and 0.3 °C, respectively, as a result of irrigation during historical period. This impact of irrigation is even larger, if we consider the average TWmax instead of extreme values, and more pronounced during the relatively drier months of early summer (May and June) (see Supplementary Figs. 2–4). These are the months when irrigation has the largest impact on land surface conditions.

Heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation
The impacts of climate change are significantly larger than those of irrigation. The extreme TWmax over irrigated area and NCP are projected to increase by an additional 3.4 and 3.3 °C, respectively, assuming a BAU scenario of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with irrigation, while increases of extreme TWmax are 2.9 and 3 °C over irrigated area NCP, respectively, without irrigation (Fig. 2). The spatial distribution of TWmax under current and future climate features three regions with significantly warmer conditions: the NCP close to the Eastern coast, the Yangtze river valley, and the Southern coast. All these regions are characterized by relatively low elevation (lower than 50 m) compared to the surrounding area (e.g., Yan Mountain and Yaihang Mountain (Fig. 1a)), which is a major factor explaining occurrence of relatively warm conditions. Over several locations in the NCP and along the Eastern coast of China, such as the areas around Weifang, Jining, Qingdao, Rizhao, Yantai, Shanghai, and Hangzhou under the BAU scenario, TWmax exceeds the critical threshold for human survival of 35 °C, during several episodes over a 30-year period (Fig. 3). Moderate climate change mitigation efforts, represented by the RCP4.5 scenario of GHG emissions, reduce the risk of such heatwaves significantly; however, deadly heatwaves are still projected even under those conditions, though significantly less frequent (Fig. 3). In interpretation of the results of this study, we emphasize that TWmax values as low as 30 °C would qualify as “Extremely Dangerous” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Service Heat Index (see Supplementary Table 6).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y

I'm not debating how temp rises will have adverse affects/effects that's a give and being done to death for so long the corpse is losing it attractiveness.

What I am saying is that bogeys about sustained 35°c wetbulbs, contextualised as a histrionic centerpiece for mass famine and devastation requires understanding e.g. for 35°Cwb something in the order of a sustained 47°Cdb would be expected.

explod · 1 August 2018

Tisme said:
I'm not debating how temp rises will have adverse affects/effects that's a give and being done to death for so long the corpse is losing it attractiveness.

What I am saying is that bogeys about sustained 35°c wetbulbs, contextualised as a histrionic centerpiece for mass famine and devastation requires understanding e.g. for 35°Cwb something in the order of a sustained 47°Cdb would be expected.

Which is what is now occurring

basilio · 1 August 2018

Tisme, this article describes the temperature extremes that are being reached in some of the hottest parts around the world in 2017. They are happening with an average increase of global temperature of around .9C.

If you somehow still believe that it will take another 12C degrees increase in world wide temperatures to cause widespread collapse from heat .... you really shouldn't be running your Oz wide business empire.

Or perhaps they shouldn't let you.

How Extreme Heat Could Leave Swaths of the Planet Uninhabitable
Last year, in Kuwait, the earth’s hottest recorded temperature topped 129 degrees, a tie with Death Valley’s sizzling 2013 high. Recalling his own near-lethal brush with such temperatures—now the leading cause of weather-related fatalities—the author investigates how it could alter Earth forever.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/06/extreme-heat-global-warming

Tisme · 2 August 2018

explod said:
Which is what is now occurring

No it's not. Badgerys Creek came close last year but no cigar. I think it was the UAE that had a 35deg wetbulb and the population survived despite all the apparel they wear.

You have to realise that the Chinese desert is no enclosed in dome. You can't keep pushing the xyz global temp rise on one hand then dispel it on the other when it doesn't suit the argument.

12 degrees cobber....ask around the academic circles if you refuse my smarts.

explod · 2 August 2018

Tisme said:
No it's not.

12 degrees cobber....ask around the academic circles if you refuse my smarts.

Maybe, but how about 40c above in the arctic circle in their last winter.

Averages are one thing but its the extremes that are starting to knock people out.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/wor...arctic-scientists-concerned-article-1.3845114

Smurf1976 · 2 August 2018

So far as this 12 degree argument is concerned, an increase of that magnitude would see the all time record for both Sydney and Melbourne being 58 degrees and temperatures in excess of 50 being experienced during most summers.

I'm no expert on what the human limits are but I can assure you that high temperature will cause a lot of problems before it reaches the high 50's.

Air-conditioning and refrigeration systems will start to fail at about 43 degrees and very few will still be running by the low 50's. That's fail as in stopping completely, not just that they aren't adequate to keep the room at 22 degrees etc.

Train lines are likely to have problems at that temperature. Authorities would in practice quite likely slow, or even outright cancel, services rather than take the risk of derailments.

Any machine involving the use of petrol is subject to fail beyond the high 40's.

Electricity transmission and distribution networks suffer a substantial loss of capacity at high temperatures. Exceed that limit and outright failure occurs.

Most means of generating electricity lose capacity at high temperatures. Large thermal (coal, gas, oil) power stations would certainly have major issues in the high 50's. It is also unknown, but highly likely, that we'd see a substantial shutting down of small scale solar generation at those levels due to inverters overheating. That's unproven but probable.

Those machines which escape problems with petrol or electricity itself will have issues with heat dissipation. In simple terms that means they can't be pushed to hard or they'll overheat.

At least some isolated incidents of road surfaces melting, traffic lights failing and so on are probable. It only takes one section of road to be unusable and that makes the rest largely pointless too. Even if all that's OK the odds that someone's car breaks down on a bridge etc and blocks the road are extremely high.

Put that all together and there's a lot of uncertainty about how such a day would actually unfold but what can be said is that by the time it's over:

Pretty much nobody would have functioning air-conditioning.

Electricity supply would likely be hit and miss depending on exact location.

A lot of communications infrastructure would not be working in practice due to various causes.

With the exception of ferries, ground transport of all types would be substantially inoperable in practice.

It's probable that airlines would ground their fleets in practice due to concerns about both the aircraft and runways operating safely at such a high temperatures. There's a point where concerns would arise and the airlines are likely to take a precautionary approach.

With unreliable transport, communications and electricity plus concerns about human safety government would quite likely order all non-essential businesses to close. Even in the absence of such a decree most would shut down in practice.

If you went into the CBD that afternoon you'd find a few police keeping a watch and that's about it really. Pretty much nothing would be even remotely close to business as usual.

All that's without mentioning fires, effects on farm crops, animals and so on.

I don't know exactly where the tipping point is but the normal functioning of society will come to an abrupt halt well before we're 12 degrees above present hot weather conditions. Even 6 degrees above would bring most things to a halt in practice.

Tisme · 2 August 2018

explod said:
Maybe, but how about 40c above in the arctic circle in their last winter.

Averages are one thing but its the extremes that are starting to knock people out.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/wor...arctic-scientists-concerned-article-1.3845114

Yes that's a different story though. I'd rather see editorials that don't use sensationalist hooks and unlikely science to strike fear .

Tisme · 2 August 2018

Smurf1976 said:
So far as this 12 degree argument is concerned, an increase of that magnitude would see the all time record for both Sydney and Melbourne being 58 degrees and temperatures in excess of 50 being experienced during most summers.

I'm no expert on what the human limits are but I can assure you that high temperature will cause a lot of problems before it reaches the high 50's.

Air-conditioning and refrigeration systems will start to fail at about 43 degrees and very few will still be running by the low 50's. That's fail as in stopping completely, not just that they aren't adequate to keep the room at 22 degrees etc.

Train lines are likely to have problems at that temperature. Authorities would in practice quite likely slow, or even outright cancel, services rather than take the risk of derailments.

Any machine involving the use of petrol is subject to fail beyond the high 40's.

Electricity transmission and distribution networks suffer a substantial loss of capacity at high temperatures. Exceed that limit and outright failure occurs.

Most means of generating electricity lose capacity at high temperatures. Large thermal (coal, gas, oil) power stations would certainly have major issues in the high 50's. It is also unknown, but highly likely, that we'd see a substantial shutting down of small scale solar generation at those levels due to inverters overheating. That's unproven but probable.

Those machines which escape problems with petrol or electricity itself will have issues with heat dissipation. In simple terms that means they can't be pushed to hard or they'll overheat.

At least some isolated incidents of road surfaces melting, traffic lights failing and so on are probable. It only takes one section of road to be unusable and that makes the rest largely pointless too. Even if all that's OK the odds that someone's car breaks down on a bridge etc and blocks the road are extremely high.

Put that all together and there's a lot of uncertainty about how such a day would actually unfold but what can be said is that by the time it's over:

Pretty much nobody would have functioning air-conditioning.

Electricity supply would likely be hit and miss depending on exact location.

A lot of communications infrastructure would not be working in practice due to various causes.

With the exception of ferries, ground transport of all types would be substantially inoperable in practice.

It's probable that airlines would ground their fleets in practice due to concerns about both the aircraft and runways operating safely at such a high temperatures. There's a point where concerns would arise and the airlines are likely to take a precautionary approach.

With unreliable transport, communications and electricity plus concerns about human safety government would quite likely order all non-essential businesses to close. Even in the absence of such a decree most would shut down in practice.

If you went into the CBD that afternoon you'd find a few police keeping a watch and that's about it really. Pretty much nothing would be even remotely close to business as usual.

All that's without mentioning fires, effects on farm crops, animals and so on.

I don't know exactly where the tipping point is but the normal functioning of society will come to an abrupt halt well before we're 12 degrees above present hot weather conditions. Even 6 degrees above would bring most things to a halt in practice.

It is sustainable for short periods and air cooled air conditioners can easily handle 47 deg if designed with the correct size condensing sets. Those temps are not uncommon in the Pilbra. However it isn't the 47 degrees in isolation, the article proposed a sustained average wet bulb of 35deg which would require at least 47 deg drybulb to maintain the moisture holding at sea level vapour pressure.

If we did see a rise to 35Cwb it would be a very long term event and in that time emmission producing untilities would be cruelled simply because they would have become unsustainable mechanically, kinetically and latently.

In addition, as the latent temps rose increased heat soak into to the moisture (latent heat of vapourisation) would keep dry bulbs from rising as fast as they would otherwise.

basilio · 2 August 2018

When Tisme talks of an increase in global temperatures of 12C as the necessary precurser for widespread heat related deaths he may be using the following adaptabity study.
An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552

It's a good read and in fact highlights the major limiting factor of human or animal survival as the climate warms. Basically when one reaches wet bulb temperatures of 35C we cook within 6 hours. Bodies cannot get rid of their heat load into an environment that is warmer then they are.

The mistake Tisme is making is insisting that this problem is not going to happen until world wide global temperatures have increase by 12C. At 12C the whole world has been well cooked.

The paper I cited at the start of this discussion showed that on current warming trends large areas of China would be experiencing multiple 35C wb events from 2070 onwards.

In fact it will probably also happen in India, the Middle East and probably Australia.These are just the logical extensions of the extreme weather conditions we are already experiencing

The observations Smurf makes about the capacity of human engineering to work in extreme conditions is also critical. The end result will be that hundreds of millions of people will be at extreme risk of heat stroke at exactly the same time as any human protective measures fail under the extreme temperatures.

These events don't have to happen all the time to be fatal.. Once is generally enough. But add a few more in the summer and if people/animals managed to survive the first event - the second/third/fouth would take them out.

It's at this stage we need to look at become cave dwellers.

Tisme · 2 August 2018

basilio said:
When Tisme talks of an increase in global temperatures of 12C as the necessary precurser for widespread heat related deaths he may be using the following adaptabity study.
.

Where did I talk about that? Please explain your need to make up stuff in the face of facts?

basilio · 2 August 2018

Tisme said:
Where did I talk about that? Please explain your need to make up stuff in the face of facts?

How about

Tisme said:
A global rise of about 12 degrees C would be req'd for that scenario.

When referring to my original story.

And if you can recall I gave you a nudge and suggested you might want to recheck your facts and just said you "knew your oats" and proceeded to say

Tisme said:
You have to realise that the Chinese desert is no enclosed in dome. You can't keep pushing the xyz global temp rise on one hand then dispel it on the other when it doesn't suit the argument.

12 degrees cobber....ask around the academic circles if you refuse my smarts.

And by the way if you hadn't made it absolutely clear that you believed we needed an extra 12C temperature to see these problems why did Smurf respond with a detailed analysis of how a 12C increase in temperatures would impact our cities ? What was he reading ?

Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

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