Irrational exuberance

[mit]

kennas,

possibly 2day or 2mrw our markets will.
if we are going to have a correction anytime soon it would be this week after the US elections. Maybe a 3-digit blow-off move 2nite on the DOW and we follow 2mrw... but then??

if the market is still holding up well by thurs and friday then i reckon smooth sailing and it will blend nicely with the santa claus rally

tread carefully... i still remember how fast CBH and KZL fell in May... it scares me sometimes...

The money is currently on the democrats winning the mid term elections so that negative (in a market sense) has already been factored in. So I don't see much of a downside unless the Republicans retain the seats and the market would rise. A three digit blowoff would most likely be from more news that would indicate the fed would need to keep tightening. similarly in Australia, the next rate rise is already factored in. Profit announcements have been met with pretty positive reactions. I think that unless there is some particularly bad news our market is relatively benign in the short term.

Michael

 

[Julia]

The money is currently on the democrats winning the mid term elections so that negative (in a market sense) has already been factored in. So I don't see much of a downside unless the Republicans retain the seats and the market would rise. A three digit blowoff would most likely be from more news that would indicate the fed would need to keep tightening. similarly in Australia, the next rate rise is already factored in. Profit announcements have been met with pretty positive reactions. I think that unless there is some particularly bad news our market is relatively benign in the short term.



Michael

Hello Michael,

Why do you think the market would rise if the Republicans retain the seats?

Julia

 

[2020hindsight]

...An up day on the market shouldn't bother a trader that has his/her emotions in check .

...picked the wrong week to give up barbituates ...

Kennas you kept CBH ?- I sold CBH (and AGS) and kept KZL lol.
o boy - so many winners, what a party lol. :dance:

I'm a COMPLETE novice, but I just wanna get off the merry go round to catch my breath here - as they say - when people are in a panic - slow things down until order is regained - (even if it costs me a few bucks , and I have to get back in in a week or so at a small loss - strictly Zen all this - wouldnt know a graph if you drew me one).
Good luck all those with the courage to ride the buckjumper for the next few days.

PS That word "correction" - why is it that it's always so obvious AFTER the fact? - for my own point of view, I've had as much luck as an idiot novice is entitled to, and I'm going to take that breather.

 

[Sean K]

...picked the wrong week to give up barbituates ...

Kennas you kept CBH ?- I sold CBH (and AGS) and kept KZL lol.
o boy - so many winners, what a party lol. :dance:

Bought back into CBH and AGS.

Should be another record close today. US up 100 pts, Oil up, Zinc up 4%!, uranium over $60, Gold holding above $620, takeovers everywhere....

Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more 30% gains today, if not for The Cup.

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20537056-5008540,00.html

Here's another view. (Barefoot investor, SMH). Not that I subscribe to this view btw. Makes entertaining reading though.... (I sure as hell can relate, lol - to "Peter the Punter" that is )

"Peter the Punter (breathless in anticipation): "I want to buy $2000 in this little mining company right now. It's gone from 50 to $4 and a bloke I know reckons it's going to $8."

Barefoot: "Let me guess, Pete, the bloke who told you about this bought the stock at 50?"

Peter the Punter: "Well, yes."

Barefoot: "What does the company do?"

Peter the Punter: "They mine something, somewhere, Africa I think. They have a big deal on the cards that's going to rocket the share price."

The only long-term investment I'd ever seen Pete make was buying a slab instead of a six-pack and pocketing the difference in the mark-up. He's a good bloke, but suffers from a disease that afflicts many mug punters -- the lure of money for nothing. On Peter's thinking, once the stock doubled he'd cash out and make a tidy profit. Yet as always, he was letting sexy stock spruiking get in the way of logic.

The company's share price already had a phenomenal run, and in much the same way that Ponzi schemes work, the only way to keep the share price moving up is to bring new people into the mix.

Peter understood my rationale, yet was in a bind. "The company keeps making announcements," he said, although he conceded he couldn't really make head nor tail of all the geological terms they contained, but surely this was a good sign?

I explained to Peter that I'd long suspected that if an executive of some suspect mining minnow woke up in the middle of the night and went to the toilet, they'd whack the event in a press release the next morning revealing that the company had found 'gas'.


etc ................
I have long advised my punting pal to stop treating the stock market as a giant poker machine.

Instead I've recommended that Peter invests long term into quality top-50 companies.
...............
Tread your own path!

I'm not replying to anyone in particular, but, irrespective of that fact that the CBH's and KZL's of this world don't qualify as the sort of shonky stock Peter's referring to, (and dont have gas lol) ,this barefoot bloke might have a point - he can mimic me to a tee, lol.

PS Oct 7 - this article probably old hat to you blokes.

PPS The OTHER way to look at it :- since this bloke has lost a potential FORTUNE if he wasn't on board Zn and U since 7 oct, then maybe Peter should be giving HIM advice lol.

 

[nizar]

Fred Dickson, market strategist at DA Davidson, said investors were looking past the elections despite predictions that one or both chambers could shift to Democratic control, in a loss for President George W Bush's Republicans.

"The good news is that the expected closeness of the congressional election and its impact on leadership has been well known, thus we do not expect the overall reaction of the stock market to be big in either direction or extend long regardless of the outcome," Mr Dickson said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20715175-1702,00.html

 

[Sean K]

Another 4 stocks on my watch list, or in the portfolio, going up 10-20%.

An AWESOME time to have conviction in short term trading, but once again, I emplore, have an exit policy and save your ****.

Or, be totally out, and buy a bank!!

I am short term trading this bull atm, but I will NOT be caught with my pants down!

 

[2020hindsight]

An AWESOME time to have conviction in short term trading, but once again, I emplore, have an exit policy and save your ****.

m8 - I'm not being greedy - leaving a bit of profit on the table for the next guy who picks up the stock good luk to you - (and me I guess on the timing of when I go back in)

 

[GreatPig]

My trading portfolio was actually down a little today, although the investment one was up nicely.

The one stock I managed to get a good daily hike out of yesterday - up 18% - lost about 14.5% of that again today Can't complain I guess, but up another 20% would have been much nicer

GP

 

[2020hindsight]

GP - Thought you might like this little example of irrational exuberance ...

Sir Brian had a battleaxe with great big knobs on;
He went among the villagers and blipped them on the head.
On Wednesday and on Saturday, but mostly on the latter day,
He called at all the cottages, and this is what he said:

"I am Sir Brian!" (ting-ling)
"I am Sir Brian!" (rat-tat)
"I am Sir Brian, as bold as a lion -
Take that! - and that - and that!
:viking:
Now I'm not saying that Wednesdays and Saturdays have anything to do with this - and let's face it Zen is just another name for "mumbo-jumbo" - for a start the ASX isnt even OPEN on Saturdays !!! So CAN't be a message from the "great hunting spirit" - as Elma Fudd used to call Bugs Bunny

Gee but this is life in the fast lane ! As my boys say - If you're not living on the edge, you're taking up too much space Good luck all.
PS that poem was hilarious. Wish I 'd known of it when my kids were small Such fun to read em that sorta stuff at bedtime lol. But I digress yet agaain.
_________
Anti ramping disclaimer. I have no shares in battleaxes, nor helmets. Anyone who takes my advice should seek professional help - I suggest Dr Gebutstag at the mental health clinic at Goodna.

 

[Sean K]

Looks to be a bit of profit taking amongst those stocks that have run pretty hard. Others are up. Punters just switching from one to the other after the excitement peaks.

Need to be getting in early and out before greed becomes not good.

 

[constable]

dont you just love it when you find stock that you didnt know you had!
monday i'd bought 300000 aex @ 37 sold them following morning at 38 but only placed sell order for 250k. Found the other 50k 5minutes ago and had no hesitation flogging them at @ 45 . nothing like finding 400 bucks

 

[Sean K]

Looks like a little heat has come off things today? Quietened down a bit.

Or is just the stocks I am watching.

 

[Julia]

Looks like a little heat has come off things today? Quietened down a bit.

Or is just the stocks I am watching.

"Quietened down a bit" would be an understatement for my portfolio.
Down large amounts on almost everything.

Julia

 

[Sean K]

"Quietened down a bit" would be an understatement for my portfolio.
Down large amounts on almost everything.

Julia

Yeah, lots of little red arrows laughing at me. Damn it! Haven't had to look at that for a while. Glad I've been taking profits recently. I'd be on bread and water tonight if I held what I did a month ago.

 

[marklar]

My portfolio usually moves rather opposite to the all ords (wierd), but today everything is down except ARR.

m.

 

[Sean K]

My portfolio usually moves rather opposite to the all ords (wierd), but today everything is down except ARR.

m.

My only thing going up in PSV which is UNHEARD OF. It normally just goes red no matter what the markets doing.

Perhaps we are just in the eye of the storm and things wll be going up 30+ % again in a day or so.

 

[GreatPig]

Just about everything in my watchlist is red, but I'm only down a very small amount today compared to yesterday - almost nothing in my trading portfolio.

GP

 

[Kauri]

Dare I say it......., but its not too bad a day when your shorts are down too..

 

[marklar]

Finished up today OK, a tickle in front from this time yesterday. LPT's down, everything else roughly unchanged or up a notch.

m.