Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Iron Ore

As mentioned in the IRM thread.

Nice recovery.

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As mentioned in the IRM thread.

Nice recovery.

Last Trade: 0.415 AUD
Trade Time: 4:10PM AEST
Change: +0.050 (13.70%)
Prev Close: 0.365
Open: 0.365
Bid: 0.410
Ask: 0.415

Some major Iron Stocks

ADY AGO AQA ARH BCI CFE CXM FMG FRS FWL GBG GDM GIR GRR GWR IDO IFE JMS MGX MIS MMX PMM SDL SPH SRK TTY UMC WPG

thx

MS
 
breaking those down in to DSO vs magnetite projects could be a could way of sorting the cream from the milk. To make the best of current and short-medium term iron ore prices these DSO operations are the best bet. Most of these magnetite juniors wont be up and mining for at least 5-10 years if at all if there is any change in iron ore prices. Have to remember RIO is hugely increasing its output in the next 24 months. Magentite projects just cant compete especially with the huge operational costs in WA the margins just aren't there atm for those projects
 
that said here's the ones i know that are DSO.

BHP, RIO, YML, AGO and FMG.

Magnetite projects that can be brought in soon are FWL

IRM and others are unrealistic there magnetite tenements are miles away from any infrastructure and located in the middle of WA. with only rock chip samples at this stage i think IRM is built on hype not on sense
 
Thanks Michael.

That's a few to choose from. Woh!

What's your opinion on IRM at the moment?

personally, i am still banking on ADY - a solid iron ore producer with good income. more importantly it also has 20% of the worlds lithium in proven reserves in argentina.

there is a demerger of these two in the near future. share price currently at 0.55 and i think it is cheap compared to other iron ore companies!!!:2twocents
 
that said here's the ones i know that are DSO.

BHP, RIO, YML, AGO and FMG.

Magnetite projects that can be brought in soon are FWL

IRM and others are unrealistic there magnetite tenements are miles away from any infrastructure and located in the middle of WA. with only rock chip samples at this stage i think IRM is built on hype not on sense

What do u think of MGX? Is it a DSO?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.1 11.2 24.3 33.8
DPS 0.0 4.2 10.4 16.9
 
MS,

MGX have the Koolan Island deposit now (ex Aztec) Arguably it doesn't get any more DSO than that- just pick it up and throw in the ship off to China/Taiwan/Japan.
 
It may be time to draw some comparisons between the Iron Ore explosion and the Uranium Job we experienced earlier in the year

Cheers


BT



Rudi On Thursday
FN Arena News - October 17 2007


FNArena has written quite a few stories about iron ore in the past eighteen months. In the second half of 2006, when most experts in the market seemed to assume the benchmark contract price would go up one more time, we suggested this may not necessarily prove correct. This view was backed up by feedback from our industry sources.

It turned out the view was correct. From early 2007 onwards we were quick in notifying our readers that overall expert sentiment was shifting in favour of further price increases for future years. And then again. And again.
As we are approaching another round of annual price negotiations between the world’s most powerful oligopoly –Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP Billiton ((BHP))- and their main customers in Asia, most securities analysts are banking on two more price rises.

The first one, which relates to the Japanese fiscal year that starts on April Fool’s day next year, should see a price rise of some 30%, or more, the following year should generate another but much smaller price rise, probably in the order of 5-10%. All this is not necessarily true. It’s what is currently being put through valuation models at stock brokerages to assess what type of rating should be placed on certain ASX-listed stocks, among other things.
This week I came to realise that we probably haven’t written one single negative story on iron ore yet. It is then that I realised this would be the first one. Call it more of a warning.

No matter how positive the undertone has been in all our previous stories –and there have been many- never at one point did we truly envisage that iron ore would develop into the next market craze. But it has.
Sometime before the August correction a few securities analysts started to argue the case for Australian producers to seek compensation for the freight differential with other countries, Brazil in particular. All of a sudden prospects emerged for a virtual doubling of next year’s contract prices.

Investors needed to know no more. Iron ore companies have been the flavour of the month, and that’s after they became the default flavour in the first half of the year already. The problem now is not so much one of value, but more of risk. Similar to what happened with uranium stocks earlier –when everyone and his dog simply went stir crazy about it- is that many iron ore related stocks are being priced at high expectations.

This does not necessarily mean these expectations won’t be met. For all we know the upcoming negotiations between the three oligarchs and their steel customers will result in another significant price rise and many shareholders will be walking around with big smiles on their faces for many weeks.

The problem with such a scenario is however that it becomes high risk, or to put it in non-financial language: it is rather unlikely, but by no means impossible.

When one talks to securities analysts and other experts about the upcoming negotiations, most will agree the foundations are in place for another significant price rise. But once the discussion touches upon the 50% price increase potential most get cold feet and clammy hands. Some of them simply don’t believe the Chinese will - ever - agree to a price rise of such a magnitude, no matter how tight the market has become.

For Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton there’s a fine balance in play between shorter term financial benefits and longer term customer relationships. Management teams at both companies know the market situation won’t always be like this, so no use in burning bridges that may come in handy a few years down the track.

This is why most securities analysts will mention the 50% option in their research reports, while putting 25-35% in their valuation models.
We’ve all experienced the uranium madness that lasted until June this year, so the next question should be an easy one. What is the main characteristic of a market craze?

Answer: investors price in the best scenario possible. This is why owning shares in many iron ore companies in Australia has now become higher risk. Again, I am not trying to say there is no more upside for the companies involved, but any progress from here comes with disproportional increased risk.

An example is Mount Gibson ((MGX)) whose shares touched $2.84 on Tuesday. Even in early March this year one could have still bought the same shares at around 70-80c. If you happen to be one of the shareholders who did buy the shares at the time, good on you, but at Wednesday’s closing price of $2.76 the market is effectively pricing in a price rise of 50% next year.

This means that even if the big three producers negotiate a price rise of 50% the shares are already there.

This is the main reason that UBS initiated coverage on the stock with a Sell today. The broker has so far penciled in a 35% price rise and simply refuses to put the current valuation higher than $1.60.

Analysts at Shaw Stockbroking already covered the stock, but they rate it a Sell too. Shaw has penciled in a 30% price rise but obviously sees some value elsewhere as its target stands at $2.00. While this is significantly higher than UBS’s target, it is also significantly below the current share price.

Another common mistake investors seem to be making is to look at the valuation of a company such as Fortescue (not a producer yet) and then conclude their little mid-capper should be trading at similar multiples. This is almost every time wrong, if only for the simple fact that iron ore is above all an infrastructure story. This means size matters, as well as access to key infrastructure such as roads, ports and rail. Fortescue is looking at becoming the world’s biggest independent producer.

Because of the importance of scale, and of infrastructure, most medium sized companies will find it hard to become a mini-Fortescue. A logical way out is thus to join forces. That’s why Murchison Metals ((MMX)) in the mid-west region of Western Australia is trying to buy neighbour Midwest Corp ((MIS)). It is a public secret that both management teams tried to work out a friendly merger earlier this year, but that went nowhere.

Analysts believe Murchison’s offer might ultimately be successful, simply because the advantages of a combined entity (larger scale, relatively less investments to reach the same goals, twice) look so compelling.
UBS initiated coverage this morning with a Buy for each of the separate entities. Keep in mind that the key factor in this story is that both companies need the development of new rail and port infrastructure for their growth prospects.

UBS, and others, believe the sum of both is poised to turn out larger than two. For starters, the analysts foresee up to $400m in savings simply by sharing infrastructure and equipment.

The broker has placed a target price of $6.50 on shares of Murchison, but regular readers of our daily Australian Broker Call will know already that Merrill Lynch has held a $7 target for the stock for a while now.
UBS’s target for Midwest is $5.90.

Another key factor to watch out for is whether your iron ore hopeful of choice is proposing to mine haematite or magnetite. The first is high grade material with at least 55% iron in it and the preferred product of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, the second is lower grade and often demands extra processing costs. The latter means your average producer of magnetite will make less profit and will therefore trade at a lower valuation.

However, that does not necessarily mean one can only find value among producers of heamatite. Mark McDonnell of BBY has been a big fan of Grange Resources ((GRR)) for a while now and his view is the company is ridiculously cheaply valued, especially after signing a key agreement with Rio Tinto to access Rio’s neighbouring tenements.

McDonnell had a wrap about it on CNBC recently. Readers interested can find his views in audio and video via the following link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=555821296

Last but not least, the sector will go through a consolidation phase as mid-sized companies feel the pressure to up-scale and as larger companies, such as Fortescue, Rio Tinto, BHP and possibly even CVRD will look at cherrypicking the best assets at the right price.

Don’t forget, OneSteel ((OST)) is a major exporter as well. Any surprise in the upcoming contract negotiations is bound to deliver the company’s bottom line a nice bonus. This should translate into a higher share price.
 
what we have post police on this site who issue out infractions !!?? I want to mention a couple of stocks CBH and its constabnce range 200mill DSO and room for more.at mid 50c range and PSP at9 to 10c chasing 60 million of DSO. CUL with 30% of 10mill is now worth 14c according to the market so what are these two worth.?

must check out my record!
 
Why bother digging it up? http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071022/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_ironore_china_fish
Mon Oct 22, 9:03 AM ET

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - It may not have the allure of trout fishing, but Chinese farmers are cashing in on the world metals boom by fishing with magnets for lumps of iron ore in local streams.

"It sounds unbelievable, but it really happens in many mining areas, including mine," a manager of a mine in the eastern province of Anhui said.

"They tie magnets to steel wires, and fish for waste iron ore in the streams," he added.

Domestic steel mills are happy to buy their "catch", since China's rapidly growing steel output has strained domestic mines while sky-high international shipping rates have pushed up the price of imported ore.

Many of the mines are located in rural areas and the waste ore washes downstream through farms.

Iron ore prices are expected to rise 25 percent starting April 1, 2008. according to a Reuters poll of 12 analysts, with some looking for a 50 percent hike in prices.
m.
 
iron ore is only $80/tonne or so (higher depending on where sourced in china).

so they'd have to fish up a kilo of ore to get 8c - and would a mill buy a kilo of ore?


sounds a bit odd - maybe its a refined or semi-refined product that they're fishing for.
 
I was just about to put the iron fishing rod in the car and go for a drive when i remembered, :nono: we live in Australia we don't have any flowing water :eek:
 
In relation to Iron Ore some may be interested to know that Tony Schoer, the Managing Director of PLV has joined the forums and been posting responses to questions in the PLV thread.

PLV made a significant announcement yesterday in relation to an exploration permit being granted for the Irvine Island haemetite iron ore project in North Western Australia. This is a follow on to the Native Title agreeent that was negotiated earlier this year.

PLV's 5th July ASX announcement provides interesting information about the potential of the iron ore deposit on Irvine Island - it is potentially hundreds of millions of tonnes of high grade, high quality DSO ore.

Irvine is adjacent to existing iron ore mining operations on Coc katoo and Koolan islands - both of these islands were mined for decades by BHP from the 50's and 60's through to the early 90's, yielding over 100 million of tonnes of high quality iron ore. Both islands still have ongoing iron ore mining projects going on, now operated by PMM (Portman) and MGX (Mt Gibson) respectively.

These islands have Iron Ore grades up to 68% Fe.
 
State releases Mid West iron ore sustainability strategy
24-October-07 by Edited announcement

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/57908/State-releases-Mid-West-iron-ore-sustainability-strategy

A State Government strategy for sustainable development in the Mid West has committed to the creation of Class A nature reserves over the Helena-Aurora Range, Die Hardy Range and Mt Manning Range.


Recommendations from the review are pasted below, followed by a government statement

As a result of this Strategic Review, Government will provide the confidence for mining, investment, community and conservation interests by demonstrating its support for the establishment of an environmentally acceptable long term iron ore industry base in the region by endorsing a framework that:


  • commits to sustainable economic, social and environmental outcomes in respect to development proposals and conservation needs in the banded iron ranges;
  • provides for reservation as Class A conservation reserves (i.e. national parks, nature reserves or conservation parks) over appropriate areas of banded iron ranges;
  • provides clear indications that the Government is pre-disposed to the development of key strategic iron ore resources needed to underwrite and sustain the proposed Oakajee Port and related infrastructure;
  • provides guidance to the EPA and decision making authorities for the remaining ranges, including the objective of achieving appropriate conservation outcomes in high conservation value Midwest Ranges currently undergoing assessment.
  • provides adequate opportunity for further evaluation of prospectivity and conservation values to allow for informed decisions on land use.

Consistent with this framework the Government:

  • Commits to the creation of Class A nature reserves or national parks over the Helena-Aurora Range, Die Hardy Range and Mt Manning Range (as generally recommended in Bulletin No 1256), with an indicated pre-disposition against development of these ranges,
  • Indicates its predisposition towards development over areas of
    - Jack Hills
    - Weld Range
    - Talledng Peak
    - Yalgoo
    - Wiluna West
where substantial iron ore resources are identified and are required to sustain a long term mining industry while also providing for an adequate level of conservation of their biodiversity values,
  • Indicates a predisposition that in the interests of sustainable economic development in the highly biodiverse Karara/Mungada Blue Hills area, to allow the development of the identified magnetite resource in the south west section of the range but the Government is not predisposed to the extraction of the hematite deposits of the area.
  • Further considers both the economic and biodiversity values present in the Koolanooka Hills when projects in this area come forward for assessment
  • Indicates its intention to place the
    - Booylgoo
    - Bulga Downs
    - Cashmere Downs
    - Perrinvale
    - Walling
    - Warriedar/Pinyalling
    - Wolla Wolla
    - Lake Austin
    - Bungalbin East

    ranges into an appropriate reserve status (e.g. conservation park or nature reserve not of Class A) that will facilitate ongoing assessment of both biodiversity and prospectivity with a view to reviewing that status in 3 years in light of increased knowledge at the appropriate time.

  • Agrees that an updated strategic review of available information on biod[versity and mineral resource values in three years will make more specific recommendations for conservation reserves across the remaining BIF ranges in the Midwest and Goldfields regions with development proposal in these areas put forward in the interim to be considered on a case by case basis as required and with reference to the key principles,

Further, the Government will draw to the EPA's attention the Government's predisposition, as set out above, that exploitation of appropriate iron ore resources should be carried out sustainably by ensuring that critical thresholds for conservation of biodiversity are recognised in the consideration of development proposals and that best practise environmental management and mitigation programmes are committed to by developers.



The full text of a joint announcement by Resources Minister Francis Logan and Environment Minister David Templeman is pasted below

A landmark strategic framework that will provide for the long-term sustainable development of the Mid-West iron-ore industry has been endorsed by the State Government.

The framework was released today by Resources Minister Francis Logan and Environment Minister David Templeman.

Mr Logan said the framework would deliver the best possible outcome for the State by maintaining a balance between the development of an iron-ore industry and the conservation needs of the region.

It followed a strategic review of the mining and biodiversity values of the banded iron ranges of the Mid-West and Goldfields undertaken by the Department of Industry and Resources (DOIR) and the Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC).

Mr Logan said the framework identified areas where the State Government favoured mining development, preferred sites for conservation and other areas that required further investigation.

"This framework represents a responsible middle ground that maximises the potential of the Mid-West to share in the social and economic benefits of the resources boom, while maintaining a high degree of environmental responsibility," he said.

"We acknowledge that neither the mining industry nor the environmental sector has been given everything they wanted.

"We do not subscribe to the theory that the environment must be sacrificed for the benefit of industry - and vice versa.

"But responsible state governments need to make tough decisions and we have considered the conflicting interests in this case and delivered a fair and responsible outcome for the State.

"The two government agencies central to this announcement, DOIR and DEC, are to be commended for rolling up their sleeves and tackling what has been a very difficult and complex issue.

"There are still substantial challenges to be met before the Mid-West iron ore industry reaches its potential, but today's announcement successfully crosses one of the critical hurdles and provides some certainty for the future.

"The Carpenter Government is making decisions for the future to ensure the next generations can continue to share in the benefits of the booming economy and our precious environment."

Mr Logan said the unique banded iron formations ranges in the Mid-West were believed to contain between $50-80billion in mineral resources.

He said this quantity could sustain an iron ore industry with annual exports of 50-90 million tonnes, enough to underpin the development of a new port at Oakajee.

"World demand for iron ore is forecast to increase significantly in the next decade and, with much of the resources in demand located in the ranges, it is important that we plan for the future," Mr Logan said.

"This framework delivers that plan as a strategic approach to resource mining and biodiversity conservation decision making for the Mid-West and Goldfields."

Mr Templeman said the ranges also had significant biodiversity value due to their unique geology, soils and relative isolation and they hosted a number of rare and restricted plant species and communities.

"The ranges are also very distinct features in the regional landscape, so it is important that we have a strong balance between conservation and development needs of this area," he said.

Since 2002, the Environmental Protection Authority has completed formal assessments on three mining proposals in the region and is currently working on another three. There are a further three at the feasibility stage and 25 prospects under exploration.

Under the Environmental Protection Act, the EPA is limited to assessing only the environmental aspects of the proposals, while the State Government is responsible for the assessment of the broader issues of sustainability, environmental, economic and social costs and benefits.

Mr Templeman said the large number of mining proposals in the region were presenting the EPA with an increasingly difficult challenge.

"This co-ordinated response will give industry greater certainty, while providing the EPA with clear guidelines about the economic and environmental objectives the State Government wants to achieve," he said.

"We must ensure examples of the banded iron landscapes are retained partially and in their entirety for their biodiversity and landscape values as well as tourism potential, while enabling responsible development in appropriate ranges.

"I also intend to consider how this document can be used to streamline the approvals process."
 
PSP prosperity mines is about to confirm 50 to 60 million tonnes of direct shipping ore. Share Price for PSP is 10c to 11 c. Do your own research . got to be one of the last cheap iron ore play going:2twocents
 
There is a nice write up in yesterday's Bulletin Magazine about iron ore stocks and the winners over the past year!
 
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