Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

IRN - Indophil Resources

Offer for IRN's 37.5% interest in Tampakan coming soon.

Indophil curently hold 34.23% of Sagittarius Mining Inc. with the right to acquire Alson's 3.27% stake in stages.

The announcement today means the shareholding is tidied up...Indophil can offer the entire 37.5% stake for sale with the acceleration of purchase from Alsons. The new purchaser will be acquiring a 37.5% stake in SMI and Xstrata will hold the remaining 62.5% stake. I wonder what Xstrata's view is on this?

IMO this indicates an offer for the 37.5% stake in Tampakan is very close at hand.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRN&E=ASX&N=326639

"Indophil and Alsons amend acceleration terms under MOA
Indophil Resources (ASX:IRN) and its Tampakan Copper-Gold Project partner Alsons Corporation have reached agreement on the terms by which Indophil may accelerate the pace at which it acquires a further 3.27% interest in the world-class project.
Indophil already holds a 34.23% interest in the Tampakan project, with global mining house Xstrata holding a 62.5% interest. Once these exclusive arrangements with Philippine-based Alsons Corporation are finalised and with Alsons approval, Indophil would be in a position to move to a
37.5% interest in the project.
In March 2007, Indophil and Alsons detailed an agreement whereby Indophil could – on completion of agreed milestones – move to a 37.5% interest in the Tampakan project. That agreement has now been formally amended to allow Indophil to accelerate the acquisition process.
Commenting on the revised agreement, Indophil’s CEO Richard Laufmann said: “Indophil is pursuing a range of strategies to maximise the value of its stake in the Tampakan project and is in discussion with a number of parties. There is considerable global interest in acquiring copper projects and there
is considerable interest in Tampakan, a world-class copper-gold deposit. While there has been no formal purchase agreement at this time, indications are that most buyers would prefer to acquire the combined 37.5%.”
Key terms of the revised agreement include:
• A trigger for Indophil and Alsons to accelerate the acquisition of Alsons remaining 3.27% interest in Tampakan, should Indophil receive an acceptable third party proposal to purchase its Tampakan interest; and
• On this basis, Indophil waivers the remaining two Tampakan milestones (the completion of the Bankable Feasibility Study and completion of plant commissioning) to allow the granting of Indophil shares to Alsons. This new agreement now includes a waiver by Alsons of milestonerelated cash considerations, and in return Indophil will continue to fund Alsons share of project cost commitments.
"
 
Indophil traded from open until 3.55pm between 92.5c and 94c with just over 300,000 traded in this period.

Then...from 3.55pm till the 4.10pm close of after-market traded up to $1.03 with a volume of about 700,000 shares and is now $1.00 bid/$1.05 offer.

Suggests to me that someone has knowledge of sale of Indophil's interests in Sagittarius Mines Inc (Tampakan) and that an ASX announcement on the sale will happen very soon.
 
Wow. I look at the market around mid day and wonder why IRN is lagging the market as the XAO continues to trend higher into the early afternoon. I look back tonight and wooshka, some strong volume to end the day and the result a nice long white candle that looks to have broken through resistance around that $1 mark. However the overall volume for the day is nothing unusual so maybe not as convincing as the candle suggest? Or has news leaked, late in the day, in regards to a pending announcement on the acquisition of the Tampakan Copper Project. Or is the market just finally starting to wake up to the fact that this company has been significantly undervalued for a while now and has really been a laggard in the copper sector compared to a lot of other copper plays. It is now just moving closer to fair value around the $1.25-$1.75 assuming a copper price of $0.05-$0.07/lb of payable in ground copper for their Tampakan Project. Assumptions: 13,500,000t contained copper, FX rate of $0.90, IRN’s interest remains at 34.23%, copper recovery rates of 87%, No. shares outstanding – 393.13m.


A good indication may be Tecks acquisition of the Relincho Copper Project in Chile in early 2008 for $425m. At the time no feasibility work had been undertaken and the project was still very much still in the exploration phase at the time. At the time of acquisition the project had an inferred and indicated resource of 9.62 billion lbs of copper. Hence Tech paid around $0.045 per lb of payable copper. If you assume an 87% recovery rate this figures pushes up to just over $0.05/lb. Cu at this time was trading around $4/lb and global markets were only just starting their first leg down in recent the bear market. Anyone got some other more recent copper transactions for comparisons?
 
I have been telling those who care to listen over the road that I was loading the truck up on IRN and bought my last lot at 88c after initially buying in the 40's. I will be buying again on opening Monday and just hope there is no trading halt before the market opens. We know that they thought $1.28 was too low last year. The Tampakan resource has increased and copper will be in short supply for years to come. On that basis, I would expect nothing less than $560M cash for their Tampakan share. That would equate to around $1.40 per IRN share. For me, that's the minimum which still provides 40% upside from here and breaking news is obviously imminent. The data room has been open since June and field trips for the potential buyers were conducted very recently. It all adds up to a strong bid for IRN's stake.
 
Don’t worry Banska you’re not alone. I was fortunate to have picked some up on the cheap towards the start of the year and have held since based on the fact it has been grossly undervalued. So I think we are on the same page. I am definitely considering topping up on Monday too after what looks to be a break of that $1 mark, however there are so many opportunities at the moment it’s hard to know whether to diversify or focus the portfolio on a few particular stocks. Dam I wish I had unlimited funds.

My prediction is around $0.06 per payable lb of in ground copper (assuming no recovery factor and leaving the in ground resource as it stands), which equates to around $1.73/share or $680m. I base this assumption of 6c on the fact the Relincho was at around $0.045/lb, but this was slightly less advanced and did not have the gold credits associated with Tampkan. Then there is El Morro which you have stated previously and I had a geeze at. Barrick bought a 70% stake in El Morro for $465m which equated to 10c per payable lb of in ground copper. However I don’t think Indophil will receive this type of price as the gold credits associated with El Morro were much more significant for each payable pound of in ground copper than for Tampkan. Hence the economics would likely stack up slightly better than Tampkan given the current gold price. But just a figure to mull over if Tampkan did go for 10c/lb then this would equate to just over $1b or approx $2.88/share. I’ll be licking my lips then!!!! Not going to ramp and say there is plenty of upside still to come, but I’m quietly confident. Where to though for the company once it has sold its stake? Liquidation or put the funds into exploration and M&A?
 
I wouldn't be surprised if a trading halt is announced before the market opens on Monday morning.

Exciting times for Indophil shareholders!
 

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Here's a link to boardroom radio video of Gavan Collery, Indophil's VP Corporate Affairs when he presented at an ASX conference in Hong Kong on 29/10/09 (video released on boardroom radio today 10/11)

http://www.brr.com.au/event/62419/partner/theaustralian

and here's a link to the supporting documents/graphs (provided in ASX announcement on 29/10)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRN&E=ASX&N=327056

On sale of Indophil's interest in Tampakan, Collery says...

Discussions well advanced,

"would be dissappointed if shareholders didn't have a clear view of where we are going by Christmas"
 
I seem to be incurring the wrath of the moderators for only posting links to newspaper articles with no comment by me.

The reason I post like this is that sometimes I have nothing further to contribute and am mindful of copyright issues. Why read what I have to say when a journalist for a large circulation news group has the attention of a far wider audience.

Even a chartist would acknowledge that newspaper articles can drive a share price and it is worthwhile being informed of recent articles.

This article appeared today in the Age:-

http://www.theage.com.au/business/tampakan-deal-could-be-wrapped-up-for-christmas-20091111-i836.html
 
Trading halt in regards to a corporate transaction (i.e. sale of Tampkan or the entire company). Barry Fitzgerald wrote an article earlier in the day stating it was a Chinese buyer with a likely purchase price of $A550m for the entire company. However I think he has just pulled this figure from the top of his head without any substantial evidence to back it up. He said this figure was based on an average takeover premium of 30% based on Indophil’s last trading price. This equates to around $1.41 which is what I would expect to be a low to mid range figure given it prices the project at just <$US0.05/lb of in ground copper. I was hoping for a value of around $US0.06/lb of in ground copper valuing the company at around $A670m or $1.70/share. However this would equate to a 57% premium to the companies last traded price which is quite substantial. Hopefully there will be some more information regarding the transaction in one of the morning papers. I would be content with anything over $1.55 as I believe the project demands a value of something north of $US0.05/lb of in ground copper.
 
Hi Greens,

here's a link to the article you refer to by Barry Fitzgerald:-

http://www.smh.com.au/business/indophil-negotiates-sale-to-chinese-20091127-jvy1.html

When I do a google search on recent news for Indophil this is the only article so far that refers to trading halt today.

I also suspect the $550m amount (30% premium on market capitaisation to yesterday's close) was plucked out of the air. The journalist says a sale to Chinese interests. Not sure where he got that information from.

Its been a long ride for me in Indophil (in and out of it from 27c). Also lost $ on it last year when the $1.28 takeover bid by Stanhill was current and Lion Selection sold most of their stake to Xstrata at $1.17 effectively torpedoeing the bid.
 
Yeh his article seems to be based purely on logical application of his thoughts and past events. I think his assumption of a Chinese buyer seems very logical given that the project is pretty much on their doorstep. I’m just not totally convinced on the price he suggested. You’d think given recent transactions in the industry that the price would be slightly higher. We’ll just have to wait and see. If you come across anymore articles regarding the transaction post them up. Hopefully the ride will be well worth it in the long run Ajax.
 
Re: Sydney Morning Herald says approx $1.40 takeover bid

Announcement half an hour ago of change in substantial holding - looks like Xstrata are selling their 19.99% to the chinese for $1.28 per share, subject to terms of the takeover bid.

The PDF is a scan of a fax, so can't cut and paste



To be announced early this morning-1st December

"CHINA'S raid on the Australian resources sector continues this morning with a $550 million takeover bid for the Melbourne-based Indophil Resources to be announced nice and early."

Given there are approx 393m shares on issue this equates to about $1.40/share
 
Full takeover bid by Zijin Mining at $1.28/share...takeover bid of $545m

Whilst Indophil's web-site says

Shares on issue: 393.13 million

Unlisted options: 5.35 million

Indophil willl be issuing 29.5(?)million shares to acquire Alsons' interest (3.27% of Tampakan)...this will reduce the bid per share to $1.28
 
From the combined announcement from Indophil and Zijin, Zijin intends to lodge its bidder’s statement by no later than Friday 18 December.

From the Pre Bid Acceptance Deed between Xstrata and Zijin, the bidder (Zijin) needs to hold acceptances of at least 30.2% of the shares for acceptance notice to be given in relation to Xstrata’s 19.99% shareholding.

The bidder also needs to have declared the bid free from all other defeating conditions.

At this point Zijin would be entitled to 50.19% of Indophil. (Did a lawyer got their maths wrong by stating 30.2% instead of 30.02% in the Pre Bid Acceptance Deed?)

What is interesting is that with the Alson's stake of approximately 3.45%, Lion Selection Group's 5.94% stake and those shares held by Indophil directors and related entitles the acceptances by other shareholders could quickly reach 30.2% and the bid by Zijin then be made unconditional (if they want to do this).

This may mean shareholders accepting the bid at $1.28 could be paid quite quickly once Zijin's shareholding in Indophil exceeds 50.19%.

There may then be an arbitrage opportunity to accept the Zijin bid and be paid within, say, 5 days (but only at the point where the bid is unconditional) then buy the shares on market again with the funds received and repeat the exercise.

As it’s an off market bid and Zijin already has a 19.99% shareholding it’s my understanding that they can't buy anymore shares on market (however I stand to be corrected).

I've undertaken a similar exercise a few years back. Can't remember the stock but it was money for jam with quite a few traders making repeat purchases of stock on market and then acceptng the bid (at a slightly higher price). The exercise required substantial funds however could be done using margin loan.

Top Twenty Shareholders (as of 13 September 2009)

Name Number of Holders %

Xstrata Queensland Limited 78,594,711 19.99

National Nominees Limited 43,314,875 11.02

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited - A/C 2 38,764,419 9.86

Lion Selection Group Limited 23,353,206 5.94

ANZ Nominees Limited (Cash Income A/C) 19,361,712 4.93

J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 15,825,050 4.03

Zero Nominees Pty Ltd 14,205,000 3.61

Alsons Corporation 11,100,000 2.82

Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 9,253,972 2.35

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited - GSCO ECA 7,779,025 1.98

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited 7,022,701 1.79

Southcot Mining Corporation 4,279,630 1.09

Citicorp Nominees Pty Ltd (Cwlth Bank Off Super A/C) 3,938,489 1.00

Indophil Employee Share Plan Pty Ltd 3,114,780 0.79

Khalon Pty Limited 2,593,205 0.66

Alsons Development & Investment Corporation 2,476,900 0.63

Escor Investments Pty Ltd 2,200,000 0.56

CS Fourth Nominees Pty Ltd 2,130,415 0.54

Haustella Pty Ltd 2,012, 105 0.51

Ardrilt Investments Pty Ltd 1,847,317 0.47
 
Zijin Mining received the green light from the FIRB late yesterday to proceed with the takeover of Indophil Resources. Looks like its pretty much a done deal at this stage, not sure whether there is much chance of a late rival bid. I still feel the bid slightly undervalues the asset. The only catalyst I can see for a rival bid is the fact coppers has continued to strongly rise since the bid was announced on the 1st of December. I think this is wishful thinking on my part.
 
Did anyone else notice that Zijin's % of acceptances actually went backwards in the last update, due to a significant fall in institutional acceptances.

Total acceptances fell from 43.63% to 42.57%. It's pretty unconvincing given they started with Xstrata's stake of just under 20%.

I was hoping Zijin would increase the bid when they extended, because obviously many shareholders are not convinced by $1.28. I know I'm not 100% sure I want to sell at 1.28 I think 1.40 would be much more tempting. I think it's still a real possibility.
 
Amor I totally agree with you on this one. I was going to post this a while back but because my email address became invalid it wouldn’t let me post it up. Was going to forget about it but seeing your post, thought I’d chuck it up.

Seems to me that given the slow rate of take up by Indophil shareholders of Zijin’s $1.28/share offer that many institutional and retail investors believe (as do I) that it undervalues the intrinsic value of the company. My personal belief is that Zijin’s price could be comfortably 20-50% higher than the current offer price based on valuations of both currently listed global copper plays and recent corporate acquisitions. For example if you take into account the cost of development of Tampakan to be approx $US6b ($AU6.67b) implying Indophil’s share of the cost would be $US2.25B ($AU2.5b). This essentially values 37.5% of Tampakan at $AU3.05b or approximately values the 11.16B pounds of in ground copper at $AU0.27/lb ($US0.24/lb) once the project is developed. As an example this figure is well below what value the market ascribes to OZ Minerals PH project which is valued at approximately $AU0.48/lb ($US0.44/lb). Another example is the sale of the Lady Annie mine by Cape Lambert for around $135m (assuming to be in USD). If we ascribe a value of say $US25m of development expenditure required to get the project up and running again, the price paid would be approximately $US0.21/lb of payable in ground copper. For me neither of these projects even come close to matching the quality of Tampakan.

However one thing that does need to be taken into account is the political and sovereign risk involved with operating in the Philippines. Obviously this requires that some discount should be ascribed to the value that Zijin pays for Tampakan, however in my eyes the current price seems to be well off the mark. Funny how no independent valuation was conducted??

Zijin already got an easy 20% of Indophil from Xstrata and Alsons accepting their holdings. Xstrata selling into the offer should not be surprising given the fact that Zijin not only has the capability of funding their share of the development costs but can also provide highly attractive financing to Xstrata itself. Hence why would they worry about few million here or there?

I would be interested to hear other Indophil shareholders view on the takeover and whether they are still holding or have sold into the Zijin offer. For me it is a wait and see approach at this stage, as I have clearly stated I still feel there is more value left in this one. However with Zijin slowly but surely gaining control I may be left with no option soon.
 
I wonder who knew that the new government would put in alaw saying you can't open cut mine in the provence Tampakan is in? I wonder? Hmmmmm.

How about that for a black swan. Take the little swanny right up the hole IRN!

Indophil shares drop more than 40%
July 14, 2010 - 5:09PM
.AAP

Shares in Indophil Resources NL dropped dramatically after it said it couldn't gain clarity on a government proposal to ban open pit mining in South Cotabato, the Philippines.

Its shares sank 46.5 cents, or 42.47 per cent, to 63 cents at the close after hitting a low of 50 cents on Wednesday.

Indophil said it had not been able to obtain clarity on the South Cotabato provincial government's proposal to introduce an environment code that includes a ban on open pit mining in the area where the Tampakan Copper-Gold Project is located.

Surely logic and common sence will come to the fore and Tampakan will eventually be mined?

Maybe that was a good knife catch by someone?
 

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