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Smashed through 52c to 56c with solid buying on the close. Smart astute buying on a day when there was a sea of red elsewhere.
IRN - Indophil Resources
- Thread starter Broadside
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There is nothing more to be said. The general market is looking sick again yet IRN keeps climbing. Those who are not already set probably don't want to be. Those that are: Enjoy the ride. What do they say? "Where there's smoke there's fire".
Sean K
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22 Apr SP 35c ish.
We might find out soon enough how much IRN will get for their stake.
I crunched some numbers a little while ago, but no one's been able to guestimate a value per pound and ounce to IRN, and I haven't tried hard enough. Hope my laziness isn't going to bite me.
Numerous parties interested in Indophil Tampakan stake
Elisabeth Behrmann | June 29, 2009
Article from: Dow Jones Newswires
A NUMBER of parties are interested in the sale by Indophil Resources of 34.23 per cent of its stake in the copper-gold Tampakan project in The Philippines, according to Indophil.
A company spokesman said the interested parties were "at the big end of town".
Analysts have tentatively pegged the development cost for Tampakan at $US3 billion ($3.7bn).
Indophil gave the sale update after Tampakan's joint-venture partners announced they had given the go-ahead for a final feasibility study of the project.
"The decision to develop a major copper mine at Tampakan will depend on the outcomes of the feasibility study," Sagittarius Mines president Peter Forrestal said.
Diversified miner Xstrata holds a 62.5 per cent stake in Tampakan through subsidiary Sagittarius Mines.
We might find out soon enough how much IRN will get for their stake.
I crunched some numbers a little while ago, but no one's been able to guestimate a value per pound and ounce to IRN, and I haven't tried hard enough. Hope my laziness isn't going to bite me.
Numerous parties interested in Indophil Tampakan stake
Elisabeth Behrmann | June 29, 2009
Article from: Dow Jones Newswires
A NUMBER of parties are interested in the sale by Indophil Resources of 34.23 per cent of its stake in the copper-gold Tampakan project in The Philippines, according to Indophil.
A company spokesman said the interested parties were "at the big end of town".
Analysts have tentatively pegged the development cost for Tampakan at $US3 billion ($3.7bn).
Indophil gave the sale update after Tampakan's joint-venture partners announced they had given the go-ahead for a final feasibility study of the project.
"The decision to develop a major copper mine at Tampakan will depend on the outcomes of the feasibility study," Sagittarius Mines president Peter Forrestal said.
Diversified miner Xstrata holds a 62.5 per cent stake in Tampakan through subsidiary Sagittarius Mines.
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22 Apr SP 35c ish.
We might find out soon enough how much IRN will get for their stake.
I crunched some numbers a little while ago, but no one's been able to guestimate a value per pound and ounce to IRN, and I haven't tried hard enough. Hope my laziness isn't going to bite me.
Numerous parties interested in Indophil Tampakan stake
Elisabeth Behrmann | June 29, 2009
Article from: Dow Jones Newswires
A NUMBER of parties are interested in the sale by Indophil Resources of 34.23 per cent of its stake in the copper-gold Tampakan project in The Philippines, according to Indophil.
A company spokesman said the interested parties were "at the big end of town".
Analysts have tentatively pegged the development cost for Tampakan at $US3 billion ($3.7bn).
Indophil gave the sale update after Tampakan's joint-venture partners announced they had given the go-ahead for a final feasibility study of the project.
"The decision to develop a major copper mine at Tampakan will depend on the outcomes of the feasibility study," Sagittarius Mines president Peter Forrestal said.
Diversified miner Xstrata holds a 62.5 per cent stake in Tampakan through subsidiary Sagittarius Mines.
One of the earlier posts here quotes an assessment of the value:
"The independent expert appointed by IRN evaluated 44Mtpa mine producing on average 300kt of copper and 320koz gold per year over a 25-year life, with a capital cost of US$3.9bn and lowest-quartile cash costs. It generated a value of A$1.41-1.56 per IRN share, valuing the measured and indicated resources between US5.5c and US6.0c/lb of copper equivalent (at AUD/USD 0.9560). Xstrata.s subsequently released study incorporated an expansion to 66Mtpa with a final capital cost of US$5.2bn and a cash cost of US46c/lb Cu."
You can't help but notice that they leave out the actual details that lead from a $4B+ capital investment to a value for the enterprise. So it's hard to really evaluate such a release. Given that the evaluation is paid for by the companies that own the asset, you have to think it is a high end of the range for real value.
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IRN continues to climb. Hope forum members are still holding from the 45c levels a couple of months back when I alerted they were on a breakout.
IRN's copper in the ground is valued at 3c per pound at a share price of 84c. The cheapest global copper deal of recent times was 7c per pound so even at $2.00, IRN is cheap.
I'm still accumulating almost on a daily basis when the stock weakens in intra day trading.
Expecting a bid for IRN's Tampakan stake at circa $1.50. Happy to hold long term if no bid eventuates. Seems outstanding value with copper outlook very bullish.
From ABN Amro:
"Copper market fundamentals supportive of higher prices
Long-term copper mine supply appears constrained due to the lack of new projects and
declining production from existing operations. The financial crisis has led to further project
delays (eg, RIO’s La Granja), which supports our view that the current pipeline of projects will
fall short of demand requirements. While the outlook for near-term demand growth remains
uncertain, recent stabilisation of the global economy should lead to restocking, and the
industrialisation of developing economies supports longer term demand growth. We forecast
a deficit market from 2011, with copper prices rising to US$3.20/lb by 2H12".
"According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the refined copper market balance for
May 2009 indicated a deficit of around 95kt, mainly due to continued high net Chinese imports.
China is structurally short of copper and is naturally a net importer. However, the surge in 1H09
imports has been largely driven by stockpile buying. The SRB has reportedly purchased 235kt of
copper but appears to have now stopped. A decline in Chinese commodity imports in the coming
months appears to be market consensus, and is therefore unlikely on its own to trigger a price
correction. We expect a strong rebound in consumption in 2010 as the business cycle picks up
and consumers restock, lending support to further price gains."
"Longer term projections for copper demand tend to be in the order of 3% annual growth. The chart
below illustrates that even at a moderate 3% annual growth, the world may need to mine as much
copper over the next 25 years as throughout history to satisfy demand. Significant mine additions
will be required to meet these projections."
IRN's copper in the ground is valued at 3c per pound at a share price of 84c. The cheapest global copper deal of recent times was 7c per pound so even at $2.00, IRN is cheap.
I'm still accumulating almost on a daily basis when the stock weakens in intra day trading.
Expecting a bid for IRN's Tampakan stake at circa $1.50. Happy to hold long term if no bid eventuates. Seems outstanding value with copper outlook very bullish.
From ABN Amro:
"Copper market fundamentals supportive of higher prices
Long-term copper mine supply appears constrained due to the lack of new projects and
declining production from existing operations. The financial crisis has led to further project
delays (eg, RIO’s La Granja), which supports our view that the current pipeline of projects will
fall short of demand requirements. While the outlook for near-term demand growth remains
uncertain, recent stabilisation of the global economy should lead to restocking, and the
industrialisation of developing economies supports longer term demand growth. We forecast
a deficit market from 2011, with copper prices rising to US$3.20/lb by 2H12".
"According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the refined copper market balance for
May 2009 indicated a deficit of around 95kt, mainly due to continued high net Chinese imports.
China is structurally short of copper and is naturally a net importer. However, the surge in 1H09
imports has been largely driven by stockpile buying. The SRB has reportedly purchased 235kt of
copper but appears to have now stopped. A decline in Chinese commodity imports in the coming
months appears to be market consensus, and is therefore unlikely on its own to trigger a price
correction. We expect a strong rebound in consumption in 2010 as the business cycle picks up
and consumers restock, lending support to further price gains."
"Longer term projections for copper demand tend to be in the order of 3% annual growth. The chart
below illustrates that even at a moderate 3% annual growth, the world may need to mine as much
copper over the next 25 years as throughout history to satisfy demand. Significant mine additions
will be required to meet these projections."
Sean K
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Do you mean this alert banksta:
Well picked up!
The breakout was actually at 30c.
Yes, it's had a good run, like most of the resources sector from the bottom.
Wish I held longer when I picked some up after seeing your post Bystrica. I Went in the high 50s and let go in mid 60s
Quiet high number of trades today giving me the confidence to go back in and hopefully see the 1.00 resistance reached soon, altho I plan on holding longer this time.
Quiet high number of trades today giving me the confidence to go back in and hopefully see the 1.00 resistance reached soon, altho I plan on holding longer this time.
Closed at 92.5c today (14/10/09) up from 87c close day before.
This is what may be driving the price rise:-
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704429304574468430840455864.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"Xstrata PLC's Chilean subsidiary has sold its 70% stake in the El Morro copper project to Barrick Gold Corp. for $465 million in cash"
...
Xstrata Copper Chief Executive Charlie Sartain said the deal benefits both companies. It benfits Xstrata with "Xstrata Copper's significant pipeline of organic growth projects in a number of countries"
Does this mean some of the proceeds will be used for Xstrata to finally take over Indophil to accees Indophil's interest in the Tampakan project (currently approx. 34.5% which increases to 37.5% on commencement of production)?
This may also help:-
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Markets&article_id=10056350
"With just eight days left for Xstrata (XTA) to make a formal takeover bid for Anglo American (AAL) speculation is rife that Xstrata will walk away from the deal."...
This is what may be driving the price rise:-
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704429304574468430840455864.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"Xstrata PLC's Chilean subsidiary has sold its 70% stake in the El Morro copper project to Barrick Gold Corp. for $465 million in cash"
...
Xstrata Copper Chief Executive Charlie Sartain said the deal benefits both companies. It benfits Xstrata with "Xstrata Copper's significant pipeline of organic growth projects in a number of countries"
Does this mean some of the proceeds will be used for Xstrata to finally take over Indophil to accees Indophil's interest in the Tampakan project (currently approx. 34.5% which increases to 37.5% on commencement of production)?
This may also help:-
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Markets&article_id=10056350
"With just eight days left for Xstrata (XTA) to make a formal takeover bid for Anglo American (AAL) speculation is rife that Xstrata will walk away from the deal."...
In what may be indicative of the future for Indophil shareholders, RIO have recently moved to acquire a larger stake in another large undeveloped Asian copper and gold mine, Ivanhoes Mines Limited's Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongoloia
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a94EwPyXax5U
"Rio Tinto Group will pay $388 million to double its stake in Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. as part of a 2006 agreement to give Rio a share of a Mongolian copper and gold mine near China’s border.
Rio will increase its holding to 19.7 percent from 9.9 percent, Vancouver-based Ivanhoe said today in a statement. The proceeds will help Ivanhoe develop its Oyu Tolgoi mine, which was approved by the Mongolian government on Oct. 6.
Ivanhoe Chairman Robert Friedland has staked prospects for Oyu Tolgoi, which means “turquoise hill” in Mongolian, on demand for copper in China, where imports tripled in three years. The project lies about 80 kilometers (50 miles) north of Mongolia’s Chinese border."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a94EwPyXax5U
"Rio Tinto Group will pay $388 million to double its stake in Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. as part of a 2006 agreement to give Rio a share of a Mongolian copper and gold mine near China’s border.
Rio will increase its holding to 19.7 percent from 9.9 percent, Vancouver-based Ivanhoe said today in a statement. The proceeds will help Ivanhoe develop its Oyu Tolgoi mine, which was approved by the Mongolian government on Oct. 6.
Ivanhoe Chairman Robert Friedland has staked prospects for Oyu Tolgoi, which means “turquoise hill” in Mongolian, on demand for copper in China, where imports tripled in three years. The project lies about 80 kilometers (50 miles) north of Mongolia’s Chinese border."
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There has been consistent instituitional buying through Deutsche for the last few weeks. Retail investors have been selling into what appears to be weakness on the buy side. Trouble is the instos are buying from off screen. The stock can look as though it's got no support, then all of a sudden you see 1M traded in a day and wonder where all the buying came from.
The data room has been open since June. One would think a bid is close. There were reports of several Tier 1 corporates and at least one soveriegn wealth fund in the room and all were serious players.
No doubt since the news was released about Xstrata selling their El Morro stake for circa AUD$520M, interest in IRN has ignited once again.
At a price of $1.50 for IRN, the copper in the ground is valued at 4.3c per pound. If a deal goes ahead at that sort of price, it will still be the bargain of the decade for the buyer. El Morro was done at circa 10c per pound and the economics of Tampakan are far more compelling than El Morro. The grades are better and there is a minimum of three times as much copper at Tampakan and they really haven't drilled extensively outside the main area. They have a guaranteed 20 years mine life and probably closer to 50 years. El Morro has more percentage gold which Xstrata is not really into. Copper and other base metals are their go.
Whether we get $1.50 or more or less is anyone's guess but we know they knocked back $1.28 last year. At 90c, it appears to have another 50%+ upside from here. I hold.
The data room has been open since June. One would think a bid is close. There were reports of several Tier 1 corporates and at least one soveriegn wealth fund in the room and all were serious players.
No doubt since the news was released about Xstrata selling their El Morro stake for circa AUD$520M, interest in IRN has ignited once again.
At a price of $1.50 for IRN, the copper in the ground is valued at 4.3c per pound. If a deal goes ahead at that sort of price, it will still be the bargain of the decade for the buyer. El Morro was done at circa 10c per pound and the economics of Tampakan are far more compelling than El Morro. The grades are better and there is a minimum of three times as much copper at Tampakan and they really haven't drilled extensively outside the main area. They have a guaranteed 20 years mine life and probably closer to 50 years. El Morro has more percentage gold which Xstrata is not really into. Copper and other base metals are their go.
Whether we get $1.50 or more or less is anyone's guess but we know they knocked back $1.28 last year. At 90c, it appears to have another 50%+ upside from here. I hold.
You might find that if Xstrata withdraws from bidding for Anglo (and it must make its final decision by Tuesday 20th November) the market will then look at the significant pipeline of copper projects Xstrata has and in the case of Tampakan that Xstrata is even more likely to try to acquire Indophil.
Xstrata's formal withdrawal from the Anglo takeover/merger could provide the catalyst for a market re-rating of Indophil's share-price.
Xstrata's formal withdrawal from the Anglo takeover/merger could provide the catalyst for a market re-rating of Indophil's share-price.
Going through ASX news from 2008 Deutsche Bank appears to have been Xstrata Copper's adviser on their acquistion of Indophil shares from Lion Selection.
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRN&E=ASX&N=304861
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRN&E=ASX&N=304861
Xstrata Drops Anglo Merger Plan
Here's the news I wanted to see.
Xstrata Drops Anglo Merger Plan. This will mean Xstrata won't be constrained by any cash requirements which could have arisen from Anglo merger.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/10/15/business/business-uk-anglo-xstrata.html
Here's the news I wanted to see.
Xstrata Drops Anglo Merger Plan. This will mean Xstrata won't be constrained by any cash requirements which could have arisen from Anglo merger.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/10/15/business/business-uk-anglo-xstrata.html
Manila says China's Zijin eyeing $1 bn in au & cu investments
http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFMAN43183720091015
"China's Zijin Mining Group is eyeing up to $1 billion in investments in gold and copper projects in the Philippines within five years, the Philippine environment secretary said on Thursday."
http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFMAN43183720091015
"China's Zijin Mining Group is eyeing up to $1 billion in investments in gold and copper projects in the Philippines within five years, the Philippine environment secretary said on Thursday."
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All good news on the fringes re: Xstrata pulling out of the merger with Anglo and copper forming a base at $2.80 per pound but I can't help but think the data room is hotting up and this is causing sellers to back off. This is a mega project and it will be a mega company or soveriegn wealth fund that buys out IRN's stake in Tampakan. We are going to get a reasonable price in the end and I think Christmas will be early. Just my opinion.
They knocked back $1.28 last year so one would think the figure will be at least 10% above that. That equates to $1.40 minimum. Still very nice upside from the current price of 94c especially when it's a short term play now.
They knocked back $1.28 last year so one would think the figure will be at least 10% above that. That equates to $1.40 minimum. Still very nice upside from the current price of 94c especially when it's a short term play now.
Good announcement today regarding increase of mineral resource at Tampakan, including
"In summary (see following for detail), today’s mineral resource upgrade announcement estimates:
• An 8% increase in the mineral resource, up from 2.2 billion tonnes (Bt) to 2.4Bt.
• A 25% increase in Measured tonnes, up from 620 million tonnes (Mt) to 780Mt, thereby improving confidence levels.
• Contained copper up from 12.8Mt to 13.5Mt, and contained gold up from 15.2 million ounces (Moz) to 15.8Moz.
• Significant upside for growth and new discovery in the project area.
The previous mineral resource estimate was issued in December 2007. This new estimate, calculated under the 2004 JORC Code guidelines, has been delivered as part of the US$74m Final Feasibility Study (FFS) which is due for completion in the second quarter of 2010."
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRN&E=ASX&N=326275
But this is the interesting part imo...
"The Company continues to hold asset sale discussions with a range of
parties. Following site visits, these discussions have progressed well, and they are now at an advanced stage. Indophil will update the market on any material developments as they occur."
"In summary (see following for detail), today’s mineral resource upgrade announcement estimates:
• An 8% increase in the mineral resource, up from 2.2 billion tonnes (Bt) to 2.4Bt.
• A 25% increase in Measured tonnes, up from 620 million tonnes (Mt) to 780Mt, thereby improving confidence levels.
• Contained copper up from 12.8Mt to 13.5Mt, and contained gold up from 15.2 million ounces (Moz) to 15.8Moz.
• Significant upside for growth and new discovery in the project area.
The previous mineral resource estimate was issued in December 2007. This new estimate, calculated under the 2004 JORC Code guidelines, has been delivered as part of the US$74m Final Feasibility Study (FFS) which is due for completion in the second quarter of 2010."
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRN&E=ASX&N=326275
But this is the interesting part imo...
"The Company continues to hold asset sale discussions with a range of
parties. Following site visits, these discussions have progressed well, and they are now at an advanced stage. Indophil will update the market on any material developments as they occur."
Some news articles here:-
(video report)
http://www.finnewsnetwork.com/archives/finance_news_network12766.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSMAN48683120091020
(video report)
http://www.finnewsnetwork.com/archives/finance_news_network12766.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSMAN48683120091020
