Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

IRN - Indophil Resources

kennas said:
Definately for the bottom draw now. Upside would be from the drilling program around Tampakan indicating the area to have even more of the resource, and recovery of copper price (unlikely) and gold (likely). Seems clear Xstrata may be preoccupied with other projects and intigration to have the resources, time and available talent to bed this down as well. I'll look at it again next July... :)

Xstrata to fund Tampakan

Barry Fitzgerald
November 2, 2006
Other related coverage

XSTRATA is to pick up the running on the Tampakan copper/gold project in the southern Philippines after the project emerged from a pre-feasibility study sporting world-class credentials, with a matching capital and infrastructure cost of $US1.9 billion ($A2.48 billion) to boot.

Under an option agreement covering a 62.5 per cent interest in Tampakan with Melbourne-based Indophil and Filipino interests, Xstrata has decided to sole fund ”” at more than $2 million a month ”” further work ahead of a final option exercise decision before December next year.

The decision to sole fund for an extension of the option period rather than an immediate exercise of the option at a bargain $50 million did not surprise the market as Xstrata is busy integrating the nickel and copper assets it acquired on its recent acquisition of Canada's Falconbridge.

Should Xstrata eventually exercise the option as expected, Indophil would be left with a 32.5 per cent interest and Alsons Corp with 5 per cent. Tampakan contains 11.6 million tonnes of copper and 14.6 million ounces of gold, plus molybdenum.

But developing Tampakan as an annual producer of more than 210,000 tonnes of copper and 218,000 ounces of gold will not come cheap, with initial capital cost estimates of more than $US800 million falling victim to the industry-wide surge in costs.

Tampakan's forecast cost is split into $US1.4 billion in direct capital costs and $US500 million in other infrastructure costs at the remote site, with the latter potentially to be undertaken by third parties.

Cash operating costs are estimated at less than US70 ¢ a pound of copper after gold credits. This compares with current spot prices for copper of $US3.30 a pound.

Indophil managing director Tony Robbins said that since completing the pre-feasibility study a month ago, the work program had continued unabated. "We remain on schedule," he said.

The capital cost increase spooked some in the market, with Indophil shares weakening 2 ¢ to 76.5 ¢.

Xstrata executive general manager of project development (copper) Peter Forrestal said the PFS confirmed Tampakan as a major undeveloped copper/gold deposit.

ahhh too bad there was a wedge and pennant forming as well. Good news would have increased the SP.
 
I'm not happy with the way the market has reacted to the Xstrata decision. Technically broken through what should be very good support at $0.75, plus 200d ma, and recent support line. Not happy. I have been a long term supporter of this (still am) seeing the massive potential of Tampakan, but this spells short term pain to me. With copper prices wavering and the market possibly topping I think it might be time to sit on the side lines and watch for a while. Will see what happens tomorrow on the open.
 

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This is still a long term pick for me, but has performed rather poorly sisnce the Xstrata decision to take the worst option of it's 3 (IMO) and simply fund the further feasibility work to get the project to the BFS stage. This, combined with copper being smashed has taken the sp out of what I see as the medium term upward trend, to a sideways and potentially downward move. If I was a short/medium term holder I would have sold with the break through the 200d ma which was around $0.75 and a good support area. Bit of downside to go IMO. $0.60 is a clear possibility if copper keeps sliding. :(

I am still holding long term for this as the 11 m tn copper and 14 m oz au has not moved. Copper may come down a little, but I think gold is going to all time highs in the not too distant future. Just on the gold value, this stock is - GOLD! Long term!! :)

Thought I should put this up to show I'm not just a fair weather poster. :)
 

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The long term prospects of this company are fantastic, but for now I am sitting out, if it gets down to the 50-60 mark I'd say I will be back in, I can't see it doing much in the near future, mining won't end up happening till 2010 or later, so I feel it's better to have money in other stocks and shift it into IRN at a later stage, just my opinion though.
 
deftfear said:
The long term prospects of this company are fantastic, but for now I am sitting out, if it gets down to the 50-60 mark I'd say I will be back in, I can't see it doing much in the near future, mining won't end up happening till 2010 or later, so I feel it's better to have money in other stocks and shift it into IRN at a later stage, just my opinion though.
Yeah, I'm almost with you there. I am going to wait for a takeover from Xstrata maybe. Might see what Fat Profits recommend as well. They have this in their magic hyperthetical portfolio of just 10 stocks.
 
Xstrata have decided to take 62% of Tampakan just ann, but the sp hasn't moved. :confused:

This is awesome news, surely!
 
kennas said:
Xstrata have decided to take 62% of Tampakan just ann, but the sp hasn't moved. :confused:

This is awesome news, surely!
Picked up a few more, this has got to be good.
 
Gee, its been slow out of the gates considering this was the news we were all punting on!.

Volume confirmation and momentum needs to continue, a sustained break through .85c and :D , alls looking good
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
Gee, its been slow out of the gates considering this was the news we were all punting on!.

Volume confirmation and momentum needs to continue, a sustained break through .85c and :D , alls looking good
Yeah, a bit weird. Perhaps it was just taken off peoples radars because the last ann said that theu had until Dec 07.....

This should be in the news in the morning so people should take notice. This will be one of the biggest projects in SE Asia in the next few years, if not the biggest development.

$0.85 has some previous resistance there. I'd like to see this fly though in the morning. Might be a little subject to cu and au prices though...Copper is comming off a bit.

ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy
Broker Call - December 14 2006
Target $0.99 (was $1.01). The broker has made a minor adjustment to its target price following the company's completion of a preliminary feasibility study into production at the Tampakan mine in the Philippines. It notes the project will be very leveraged to the copper price.
 
i'll take the gain.. this one completely blindsided the market.. maybe as the news spreads the market will notice,, probably be in the fin review tomorrow and get a nice boost.. long wait is over, i thought the political difficulties may have scared them off for a while, now its all systems go..
 
kennas said:
Yeah, a bit weird. Perhaps it was just taken off peoples radars because the last ann said that theu had until Dec 07.....]





Yep, it needs to break through 85c with volume and sustain it, shouldn't be a problem IMO as the Xstrata factor has been removed. Pretty much 'today's announcement' was the IRN punt!, and despite having time on their side, Xstrata have jumped in early. I wasn't expecting this so soon, pleasant surprise :)

Upside: IRN's market cap, Xstrata cash cowing and the sheer fundamentals of the Tampakan inground resource. IRN have a good repore with the Philipines government as well.

Downside: Location (Philipines) and perhaps the fundamental outlook of Cu/Au. All relative when you consider inground value and output when mined.

Regardless, IRN has a miniscule cap and is sitting on a confirmed farm in with Xstrata, on one of the largest resource bases of Cu/Au for yonks. Fundamentals will catch up with their SP, sooner than later IMO.
 
GREAT NEWS!!!

Xstrata jumped the gun! Now lets watch this baby skyrocket!

Has to break $1 within a week...like everyone has said...we've (including me) have been waiting for this news for a while...and to jump the gun is a nice XMAS present! Fingers crossed things go well...Good luck everyone and hopefully so great news for the New Year!
 
Agentm said:
i'll take the gain.. this one completely blindsided the market.. maybe as the news spreads the market will notice,, probably be in the fin review tomorrow and get a nice boost.. long wait is over, i thought the political difficulties may have scared them off for a while, now its all systems go..

bugger I sold out of this when it looked like it would take a year, well done to the patient, still plenty to go, might buy in again
 
Broadside said:
bugger I sold out of this when it looked like it would take a year, well done to the patient, still plenty to go, might buy in again
I almost thought about jumping as well as I thought there might have been some more downside with the long wait required. Lucky I held on, and lucky I saw the ann early yesterday to pick up a few more. Copper's off over night and gold relatively steady so might not push as hard as some think straight away. Might still be a chance to get some on a pullback. There's still a long long way to go for the true value of Tampakan to be realised. The Tampakan area has produced other good drilling results so there's even more scope to increase the resource. This could be a very very long term hold for me.

IRN have stated they have some other project plans in the region, will be interesting to see what else they come up with.
 
back to the low 70s... u guys reckon the small fishes have taken profits and went nibbling elsewhere? waiting for any major news?
 
I'm not sure where I'm at with this stock. I have been taking profits everywhere, but for some reason I just think I have to hold this. Perhaps it's because of the significance of the resource and the Xstrata link.... I bought in at an ave price of about $0.50 I think, so it's still looking ok for me, but if your're after short term gains, only perhaps considerable appreciation in POG and POC is going to lift this short term. Tampakan is a long term project...
 
I think the decline is all about the copper price and some short termers taking profits. Silly though, because even at $1.50 POC this is still an extremely prospective project - the lead time however my be making some impatient holders here want to close out. Most days that any large volume has been on offer, someone has taken it off the board fairly quickly. Technically, strong support at .69, which we are getting close to testing. Todays test at 0.72 was on very low volume, so i'm not sure you would consider it a terrible day. Still, since the Xstrata announcement, the thing has hardly taken off - one to keep on the watchlist however IMO.

Cheers
 
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