IRN - Indophil Resources

[Sean K]

Hey Kennes,

I used to really like this stock. Been following it since it was 35 cents and never bought in. I bought LAF instead and got them awhile back but luckily got out at 16 cents. I realized the problems of investing in the philippines. Are you confident with the stability of mining there? Indophil have a great resource its just I think they will always have troubles with the politics of the land.

I also feel if Lafayette shut down or continue to have problems investors will run away from all up and coming mining stocks in the philippines. Thats what bothers me.

Other than that Indophil have performed well. If they can get things off the ground and dont get as much hassles as lafayette has they look to be a good investment

Yep, it worries me too Chris.

The company is always keen to stress its relationship with the local comminuty and ongoing support they maintain. It sounds good on the surface, but who knows down the track. There hasn't been anything to suggest that this wont get off the ground to date with all the relevant agreements with the Phillipines Gov in place. Still, a risk, but with such a resource in the ground and potential upgrades still, I'm taking the punt.

My ave entry is around $0.50.

 

[chris1983]

Yep, it worries me too Chris.

The company is always keen to stress its relationship with the local comminuty and ongoing support they maintain. It sounds good on the surface, but who knows down the track. There hasn't been anything to suggest that this wont get off the ground to date with all the relevant agreements with the Phillipines Gov in place. Still, a risk, but with such a resource in the ground and potential upgrades still, I'm taking the punt.

My ave entry is around $0.50.

Well good luck with it. They allready have a huge resource even before the potential upgrade. Funny thing is all other mining stocks looking to develop mines in the philippines have had positive sp movements such as CMX and IRN. I just had to choose LAF

 

[Sean K]

I'm expecting this to be a very interesting week for IRN. The PFS is due to be delivered to the board by the end of the month (this week) and Xstrata are due to decide on their option to acquire a 62% stake in the Tampakan project by the end of the month (this week), paying IRN $50mil and leaving them with the remaining 38% of the project and with Xstrata then obviously using their considerable resources to get the project going forward. Big week for IRN I think. The company last stated that the PFS was on schedule so no reason to believe it won't be this week. Perhaps both events will be ann together? I have been holding for a while for this so hopefully it's all as expected........

 

[GreatPig]

Not too interesting so far... down 8.5% right now

GP

 

[Sean K]

Not too interesting so far... down 8.5% right now

GP

Biggest one day fall for some time. Strange. Not too much vol though...Broken through some support there. Could Xstrata be going to ditch it? Oh, I hope not.

 

[Sean K]

Been advised that the PFS will be delivered today, or tomorrow. Xstrata then have a month to consider the PFS before making a decion on the option, so won't happen till end of October. More waiting then.....PFS should interesting though.

 

[Sean K]

PFS delivered but sp just hanging there.....Common market! Get with the program!

As expected, Xstrata decision by 31 Oct.

As a reminder: 11.6m tn copper and 14.6m oz gold. With scope for resource upgrades.

 

[deftfear]

What do people think would happen to the SP if Xstrata takes/ doesn't take the option in the mine? Would it dive because the likelyhood of the mine not going ahead if Xstrata doesn't take the option?

 

[Sean K]

If they don't take the option, I think it's short term bad news. Xstrata taking a lead in the project will give it all the cash it needs to progress the mine without having to go to market. If they don't take it, IRN will have to find funding somewhere and the project could be put back a way. On the other hand it could make them an attractive takeover target to someone like OXR.

 

[deftfear]

Thanks Kennas

Although it seems unlikely it's good to look at both sides

 

[Sean K]

In The Age this am:

Study confirms Philippine copper deposit

Australia's Indophil Resources said a study showed its Tampakan copper and gold project in the Philippines might be among the world's largest undeveloped lodes.

The company said in a statement that the study confirmed Tampakan as a world-class deposit, containing 11.6 million tonnes of copper and 14.6 million ounces of gold.

It also indicated s potential to increase the mineral resource within the project area, it said.

The $27 million study indicated the project was financially robust and potentially one of the world's best new large scale copper-gold mines, Indophil said.

It said the study was based on average production of 210,000 tonnes of copper and 218,000 ounces of gold a year in the first 10 years of operation.

Indophil said the study has been delivered to Xstrata , 40 per cent owned by private commodities trader Glencore, which holds the right to take a 62.5 per cent stake in the Tampakan project.

It said Xstrata had until October 31 to exercise or terminate its option.

It can also fund further work to enable it to decide whether to exercise its option no later than December 31 next year.

Indophil holds a 95 per cent stake in the project and the remaining 5 per cent is held by Philippines unlisted firm Alsons Corp.

In 2008, the group plans to begin the $1 billion construction and development of the mine on Mindanao island, in the Philippines, to be funded by debt and equity. Operations are expected to start in 2010.

The Tampakan project is one of 24 priority projects identified by the Philippine government to revive a near-dormant mining industry despite opposition from indigenous groups and powerful Catholic bishops.

The Philippine government, which says the country has $1 trillion of unexplored copper, gold and nickel deposits, is trying to lure foreign firms to invest $6.5 billion in the 24 priority projects.

Manila has said investors, mostly foreign firms, have so far poured about $500 million into the priority projects since last year.

 

[Broadside]

If XStrata doesn't exercise their option I think there will be no shortage of other suitors wanting to buy into this project. I think Xstrata will exercise but if they don't there will be some short term jitters.

 

[Sean K]

Short term jitters atm. Coming into another buy opp for me. Still confident Xstrata will take the option, due end of month, which should rocket sp.

Trading generally down again atm. Ranging pretty nicely actually. Support at $0.70 which is where I'll probably pick some more up, pending market/gold/copper price crashes. Also hitting 200d ma which has been a buffer for the sp.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Nice day for IRN today, hopefully it pushes past .085 with some volume or gaps on tommorrows open, here's hoping!.

 

[Sean K]

IRN creaping to $0.85 again. Generally trending up.

Xstrata decision to acquire 62% due end of month. This week, or next. Waiting very patiently....

Only a little more volume over the past few weeks so perhaps the lack of action surrounding this means that the decision is already factored in? As I've said before seems like a no brainer for Xstrata really, so perhaps that is the case and the market will take the eventual ann in it's stride.

Or, perhaps no one cares?

 

[Agentm]

a bit of a waiting game really..

you have to factor in politics... there are a whole bunch of environmentalists out there who simply dont want any further massive mines on poorer economies.. plus the country itself is a time bomb... so to invest the capital these guys want to and to have 2 potential road blocks, political and environmental,, then you have to be very confident of making a monumental decision that may be either an absolute winner or stop you from ever being welcomed on any further boards in your industry in the future..

So to say its a no brainer is a touch simpler than the reality of such a venture..

I know a few of the guys on board on IRN's side,, they are very experienced and capable,, but this is not as simple as you may think.. i would treat it as a small investment and not get in too deep, its certainly exciting to think about but the reality of its location is a major hinderance to everyone concerned..

 

[PorscheACE]

I agree that there are issues in Phillipines but these guys have it all under control. Too much at stake to make any major mistakes. Some good news is just around the corner! I can feel it... But then again...thats what I always say!

 

[Sean K]

I agree that there are issues in Phillipines but these guys have it all under control. Too much at stake to make any major mistakes. Some good news is just around the corner! I can feel it... But then again...thats what I always say!

I wish I could feel it Porche. I have been watching this like a hawke the past 2 months in the lead up to PFS and the decision by Xstrata to take up their 62%, but there has been hardly any change in volume. As soon as I see an unusual amount of volume, I'm topping up again. The decision is very soon though....and no vol.

 

[chris1983]

I wouldnt trust the government or the environmentalists. Its also the arch bishops etc who are a major problem. Religion runs the country..and they dont want any new mines.

They have the resource..just not the right country. I hope Xstrata joins the party..you'll be winners. Good luck guys.

 

[Sean K]

Xstrata to make decision on option to acquire 62% NLT 31 Oct 06. Tomorrow.