IRI - Integrated Research

[over9k]

I'm with you peter: it's on the watch list. Looks like our range is between 2.50 & 3.50. Let's see how far it goes.

 

[peter2]

The price selloff after IRI's last FY results seems to have stopped. As a chartist I'm not surprised that price has found some support at the old break-out level (~3.50). Where to from here? I'll be happy to buy the BO at 3.75 with a stop loss 3.30 (under support).

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Integrated Research has warned "there is some risk" that both revenue and profit for the first half will be lower than at the same time last year.

The company attributed the weaker outcome to the timing of license sales and said moves in the Australian dollar in the year-to-date "represent a headwind".

The company says the recent release of new SaaS products will drive future growth and its anticipates SaaS bookings will "build progressively" over the remainder of the 2021 financial year and lead to "meaningful" revenue contribution in the 2022 financial year and beyond.

 

[peter2]

IRI did bounce off the support shown in my last daily chart. However that was short lived and price has drifted steadily lower. I chalk up the loss and await the next bounce. I'm still waiting.

The latest market update states that revenue and profits will be lower than the corresponding period last year. Mgt seems to blame the strengthening AUD (+12%) and not the lower trading. IMO the AUD is a poor excuse and mgt need to focus on the business aspects.

The price fall from post covid ath has now gone too far for me and I'll need a significant reversal pattern before getting interested again.

 

[peter2]

Another market update from IRI today where mgt finally accepts that their business has fallen off the proverbial cliff. They didn't use those words though. As traders/investors we have to accept that there will be many companies suffering in these economic conditions. It's going to take years for many to recover, if they can hang on. BTW I won't be providing any capital to help struggling businesses stay open, especially those paying huge CEO wages and exec bonuses. I'm more likely to support local small businesses.

 

[So_Cynical]

Another market update from IRI today where mgt finally accepts that their business has fallen off the proverbial cliff. They didn't use those words though. As traders/investors we have to accept that there will be many companies suffering in these economic conditions. It's going to take years for many to recover,

IT is a somewhat easy thing to defer so perhaps we should expect to see more
of this?, 11 million profit drop to 2 million half on half is a pretty big fall.

 

[peter2]

Price seems to have found some support at 2.50. Investors waiting for the news probably.

FY2021 half year report was as bad and justifies the falling price over the last half.
99% fall in profit and no dividend.

It seems investors have drawn their line and started buying. This chartist has drawn a few lines and has started a spec position. This is reversal opportunity and that's why I've called it a spec trade. The potential RR is acceptable if price gets back near 3.45.

 

[peter2]

Perfect example of a break-out failure, 1stBB failure and a pocket pivot failure.

I don't think IRI is ready to go higher just yet. Supply has thumped me and I've swallowed the loss.

 

[peter2]

IRI is almost ready to go higher. Price is back at the level that was set after the news. I would like to see price go sideways from here a create a narrow ledge but stay above 2.50. There's going to be some sellers here that were shocked by the savage dump after their last news Feb 21. These sellers can get their money back now. Price can't go higher until supply is gone or withdrawn.

Other IT companies are rallying and I think there's an improving sentiment towards IT.

 

[So_Cynical]

Integrated Research has had some issues over the last 18 or so months and now trades at around a 7 year low and hasn't paid a dividend since 2020, funnily enough 7 years ago they had roughly the same revenue as now but twice the profit, i assume their overheads have grown over the years.

Anyway good international business at a 7 year low, they generally dont raise capital and issue shares, a conservative pick for the yearly tipping comp, chart shows a tale of the good, bad and ugly over the last 3 years - time for a turn around.
~

 

[So_Cynical]

Integrated Research has had some issues over the last 18 or so months and now trades at around a 7 year low and hasn't paid a dividend since 2020, funnily enough 7 years ago they had roughly the same revenue as now but twice the profit, i assume their overheads have grown over the years.

Anyway good international business at a 7 year low, they generally dont raise capital and issue shares, a conservative pick for the yearly tipping comp, chart shows a tale of the good, bad and ugly over the last 3 years - time for a turn around.
~
View attachment 134859

1 Year later and IRI is again one of my selections in the full year tipping comp, the
chart got much worse, 2022 was a very ugly year, share price got down to 31 cents.

Dogs of the ASX theory.

 

[galumay]

I haven't looked at it for a long time, but how do you operate with 100% gross margins and make significant losses??!! (offset by non-operating income). So the only thing making money is not your core business! FCF has dropped to very little once you adjust for the distortions of AASB 16.

I mean, anything is possible @So_Cynical, but this now looks like a dog of the ASX for very good reasons!

 

[finicky]

Bid in for a modest 5,000 shares. Try to get back what I sold 32 months ago.
Mostly chart based. Note the crossover of the shorter term moving average, the shallow unorthodox head and shoulders, the bullish looking momentum indicators.
The half yearly showed improvements and it's trading at book value.

Weekly

 

[finicky]

IRI @ 0.45
Less than book value.

Skipping over the last 2 years the median ROE for IRI was 31% and the bv was in a smooth rising trend - in fact it still is because they stopped the dividend.
Getting another bid partially filled today @ 0.45 in pursuit of tiny dopamine releases. Very dead market for me lately and I've lost all interest in exploration/mining stocks.

Monthy chart has not updated for today's -8% drop (on neglible volume) but it's alluring for a wannabe bottom picker.

Held
Risky

Monthly

 

[galumay]

Having a squiz at the H1 financials, 50% of revenue is spent on marketing! Not getting much growth for such a high spend. Still FCF -'ve.
I guess there is a price its cheap at, not sure we are there yet though.

 

[finicky]

Yeah well, you can lose money fast in this market - I can anyway. Down 19% and close enough to a $grand after 2 weeks of proud ownership. I'm still inclined to view it as a high risk but potentially high reward speculative stock. Betting an amount I feel I can afford to lose. Not with any quantitative insight to speak of, just my vibe which has not been reliable lately. Will be bidding for more when the chart suggests a change from the downtrend - might even exceed the recent low.

Held

Daily - moderate but consistent selling volume

 

[finicky]

My only live bid currently. I just raised it from the 0.34 made weeks ago to 0.42, the top bid line.
Just for a 5,000 shares addition. The bid lines are looking a lot stronger than the offers.
Still like the chart as a bottom trawling prospect for a once high ROE 'enterprise software' company.
Although the recent volume bar is not playing ball. Not a fast trader's opportunity I suspect.

Held

Weekly (20,40 wma's)

 

[finicky]

Lifted my bid yesterday from 0.34 to 0.42, got filled this morning and before luncheon it's down -7% on higher than usual daily volume already, ffs. Expecting worse with the consolidation over and now broken to the downside. My broker said I'm the only guy in Australia chasing this stock (fact checked)

Held

Daily

 

[galumay]

Well at least that confirms you are a contrarian!

 

[finicky]

Well at least that confirms you are a contrarian!

I thank you, it's my heart's desire