Iran Is not Iraq

[kahuna1]

Lets kick the ball off ...

WARS and by this I mean big ones, are bad for markets. Shocking if they are world ones.
In 1937 as Europe headed there Equities got slammed, Battle of Britain, even more. Pearl Harbor saw another PREMIUM demand and stocks shed another 20%.

Iran is NOT Iraq.

Iraq has been a debacle and its population is 33% of Iran. It was and has been a debacle since the second gulf invasion.

Iraq had three main groups one being the Kurds to the North, and the other the two types of Muslins with both not liking each other.

Iraq was and is basically flat. Iran resembles Afghanistan with mountains.
It has a standing army of 500,000 and 900,000 with reserves.
It is a unified one religion state.
Militarily it is at least TWICE the peak Iraq ever was.

Afghanistan and 18 years latter the ISIS and Taliban control more of the nation than they did in 2001. MORE !!

USA failed spectacularly on both counts. Totally.

Invading or making war on Iran which would be insane to take on 83 million people who already faced a proxy war not so long ago when Iraq backed by both the Soviets and USA invaded, or tried to and Iran was left with no weapons and sent waves of humans armed with tank grenades to stop bloody tanks and did so ... it seems the lesson has been forgotten or lost outside IRAN .... the HUMAN sacrifice and needless loss was insane.

Of course the Shah of Iran installed by the UK and USA and his removal and subsequent hostages of the USA embassy will never be seemingly forgotten.

Much like the Cuban removal of USA interests and this relationship has gone backwards under Trump .... So too Venezuela and its nationalizing of some assets, never forgotten and the current moves have more to do with OIL there than anything else.

Iran is NOT a saint, I am not suggesting this. It is however NOT so repressive as other Muslim nations and women drive cars, without faces covered.

I also hasten to add. I don't KNOW who damaged the ships. I do however hold great .... MASSIVE and well founded skepticism about these events as reported.

First attack was reported as a Mine attack on 4 tankers.
Being fairly well versed in military tactics and capacities, a naval mine of which Iran has 3,000 PLUS modern ones and 3,000 older ones typically are designed to stop an armored warship or inflict considerable damage on a fast moving well .... protected vessel.

They contain on average 500 kg of explosives and on a smaller warship the impacts would be devastating. On say an Aircraft carrier with 100 watertight compartments, much less so and it would take I suspect 10 or more.

These warships and mines are designed to hit fast moving at 30 knots plus targets so 50 km an hour .... or subs which move slower but with reinforced hulls similar power is needed.

So the first 4 hit a month ago, reported for weeks ... weeks that mines were involved. I knew at first glace NO MINE ... naval mine other than a tinker toy was involved. The damage was clearly CONTACT ... as would be with a mine and the one with a hole in its rear the explosives involved were 3-5 KG or explosives NOT a mine with 500kg. It literally would blow the rear end off the ship.

Tankers moving at about half the speed of a warship. some with double hulls but NOT armored or reinforced, if they hit a contact or magnetic mine with 500 kg it would have literally blown the end off a tanker or for the other three damaged BROKEN and shattered the spine of the ship. Clearly they were NOT and never were MINES and it took two weeks if not more to it now being limpet mines which is consistent with the damage. A payload of say 3-10 kg of explosives attached magnetically with timer to go off.

With the degree of satellite surveillance and aerial surveillance in the regions it is NOT credible that it was missed now knowing someone swam to the side of the ship or rear and attached the bombs.

Anyhow .... call me cynical ... with cause ... weapons of mass destruction which DID not exist rings in my mind.

I don't know, but I am skeptical on this basis.
The three behind this ... Bolton who avoided military service with a passion and did serve in the national guard to avoid Vietnam, Trump who totally avoided it and lastly Pompeo who did serve and even went to West Point served as an engineer for 5 years with the tanks reaching rank of Captain. This contrasts with say past people with 30 year careers or Colin Powell with 35 years and a 4 star general with active .. service ... NONE of the above have been anywhere near it.

I would add Bolton and his views on Iran well documented and him boasting as he was paid in 2016 a sum of $40,000 to speak at a USA based Iranian lobby group he would bring about regime change by 2018 in Iran.

Stuff me !!
I would point out the 9/11 attacks were a disgrace in every sense but the fact that 15 of 18 terrorists came from Saudi Arabia which practices the other type of Islam religion seems to have been forgotten as to the funding coming 100% from Saudi Arabia as well.

It had not a bloody thing to do with Iran.
I repeat I don't think for a moment they are saints .... and I have no idea if they did these attacks. No idea ... I merely mention extreme caution and skepticism and Hard facts prior to any decision being made.

Then again war forever ... its the USA motto for the Military Industrial Oligarchy complex.

Iran had a valid non proliferation on nuclear deal working, then walks in Trump and tears it up.
Is he insane ?

Iran air force I am sure the USA could handle quite easily.
It actually has over 30 ultra quite submarines diesel electric which I am sure again, over time USA could take care of, but not prior to them causing mayhem. A sub lying dogoo on the seabed, is quite hard to locate. I did mention 3,000 odd modern sea mines and around 3,000 older less capable but still valid mines. Torpedo's over 2200 is the estimate from Janes ...

Navy ... well again USA could handle that easily.
What I suspect it would not handle is the 1,500 short and medium range missiles. Sure they could get a few but with terrain and hiding holes well prepared, these would wreak terror in an all out conflict.

Again, if it was Iran ... something needs to be done, but .... its not your normal situation.

As for 500,000 fairly competent ground forces and oodles of armored vehicles sure ... at a cost ... they would be able to reduce them. Say costing minimum 2 trillion ... WITHOUT going into Iran. Going into Iran itself given its terrain and the past of Iran is a shame story of western intervention and despot leaders ... Shah of Iran ... and the IRAN IRAQ war which Iraq started .... you would be bloody mad to even think about it.

But here we have idiots with no military experience ... a moron on twitter and a war even the USA can NOT POSSIBLY WIN.
It would be the defeat the Soviets got in Afghanistan, the drubbing the USA got in Vietnam. and the humiliation in Korea when China stepped in backing the North. Multiply that by TWO and that's a low estimate on the stuff these imbeciles are provoking.

Russia I might add is at a 30 year relationship low and the Chinese about the same with similar issues and will they stand aside ?

It will be the LAST war the USA will wage if it chose to go in on the ground. It would be inadvisable in the extreme without CONCRETE irrefutable evidence to even go via the air. The propensity to inflict damage OUTSIDE Iran's borders is considerable. A half hearted effort ... the response could and I suspect would be diabolical to shipping in the gulf and most oil refineries and capacity in the region.

Moving on.
This latest attack.
Torpedoes ?
Really ?

Iran had a lot of them. Designed with shaped charges which focus the explosion and kinteic impact a torpedo on a smaller warship, armored and traveling at 50 km an hour is devastating. On a tanker going HALF that speed, not armored, with the thing full of volatile fuel would likely break the back of the back of the ship immediately.

So clearly NOT a real torpedo. Maybe James bond movie type mini torpedo and his Lamborghini the underwater one ... was there.

It is of course possible .... there is a lighter type but well it seems unlikely.
Limpets mines again ?

I stress I don't KNOW ... but clearly any even basic knowledge tells us it was NOT a normal torpedo ...

I note the USA claims they picked up survivors yet Iranian TV said it did and HAD PICTURES and came to the aid of the stricken vessels.

Does this sound credible or logical, the person or nation supposedly doing it is saving them ?

I just have no idea. I do know when I see the survivors and damage on TV they contradict the USA version. Damage clearly was NOT a full Torpedo.

I would add Japanese PM was in Iran at the time and suggesting they launch an attack when he was there is, well ... even more ... stretching things.

Someone did it. I have NO idea if it was Iran or James Bond ... I merely wished to raise some potential outcomes. NONE of them good.

USA seems to think they can bully everyone from China to even Australia over tariffs and threats. twittering whilst on the toilet an invasion of Venezuela and Cuba to yet again be embargoed is the mad mad world we live in.

Time will tell.

Iran is NOT to be trifled with on a military basis. Its .... scary in every way.

Here is another view via U tube.
I repeat I have NO idea who did what. NONE ... I don't like Bolton as a blowhard warmongering idiot as is Trump and Pompeo.

If god forbid the trigger is pulled, it cannot be won by the USA. CANT. The cost would be diabolical.

Anyhow happy happy happy and await the latest VERSION of the truth as to what hit the ships and who picked them up.

Iran War Drum Beats Are THUNDEROUS



Impacts on markets whilst ignored .... and USA rose overnight, this will make Vietnam look like a picnic.

Emma is a good impartial reporter on these issues.

Take care

 

[Dark Knight 2.0]

Wag the Dog.

 

[kahuna1]

Howdy … again.

Ask and you shall receive.
Reuters report with pictures.

If you believe them mind you. If anything I am in disbelief for many reasons.

Grainy black and white out of focus. Obviously taken from above, via a drone I suspect and according to the timeline in daylight !!

I have watched this repeatedly and some questions.

First the supposition it was some malfunctioning limpet mine with explosives attached to the hull being removed, is insulting and implying incompetence of the Iranian military already.

USA claims this as the smoking gun ? Well …. lets be impartial.

I don't KNOW but this raises MORE doubts than its factual content. YES an Iranian boat approaches the side of the stricken tanker.

I have a 20 MP camera with I think 6 times optical zoom and 100 times digital and can READ a newspaper if I desired at 2 kms away. A drone, one that uses facial recognition to bomb from above has far far superior optics.

So why this grainy fuzzy rubbish on this link ?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-irans-military-recovering-mine-idUSKCN1TF071

It is without doubt taken from a drone due to the VIEW inside the small boat and elevation. Unless the USA warship was right alongside supposedly when they removed this OBJECT …. the drone is the source.

Now lets look at location of where this boat pulls up. Some knowledge and common sense needed here. On a large tanker or ship the ONLY place to get on or off at sea is NOT at the BOW/ Front or Stern, as any sea will have them rising up and down like a yo yo. So when say a harbour pilot gets onto a tanker or ocean liner he enters and exits from the middle of the ship.

A stricken tanker, exiting to boats via a ladder down the side, the only place to exit …. the MIDDLE of the ship. Look up in the video, where the Iranian small boat pulls up ? Right above it the railing has a gap … where the crew obviously exited and likely the ladder still sits against the HULL. So the location where they pulled up is totally consistent with them going … “Hey is there anyone still aboard ?” We ONLY see them as they pull away I might add.

Now look as the actual small Iranian boat. Note on the side two round rubber I presume tyre type things to protect the boat as it pulls along side wharves and so on. If you have ever seen a Tug boat with massively reinforced bows it has often tractor tyres in that case to protect the Tanker or Liner which will get damaged not the TUG and in the case of any small boat, say a harbour Pilot boat approaching an ocean liner to get the pilot aboard the opposite is the case. The Smaller more fragile boat needs buffers and fenders so to absorb some of the shock of say a 2cm steel hull rising and falling verses a fiberglass boat. That is why there were tyres along the side, but this BOAT was going NOSE on to the tanker even clearly seen via fuzzy crap drone pictures. Any small boat owner or novice knows you DEPLOY buffers and fenders as you approach and then when you depart they are removed.

There is NO way in the world any naval officer or even midshipman on small boats WOULD NOT DEPLOY this protection. Without it, a buffer your front end could get ripped off.

I hasten to add I don't KNOW what occurred of if they are correct, but the reasons given with evidence shown even PRIOR to the next bit leaves me going Bullsh%% and total BS ….

Now I mentioned the arrogant assumption and implication that it was a limpet explosive mine that malfunctioned that was being removed. Insulting and arrogant as always the USA view of others. They just happened to place it BELOW the egress and likely exit point one which clearly was used when the sailors left the ship ?

So lets go on. A malfunctioning bomb. Oh bliss. Lets get 10 people standing around said mine when its removed supposedly and then THROW it on the deck. That's clearly what occurred. Lets all stand around malfunctioning ordinance and a bomb, throw it on the deck and then ONE actually kicks the same thing out of the way.



Are you kidding me ? Seriously ? Is this a joke ? Is the USA so arrogant as to serve a grainy video that supposedly was taken in daylight and suggest Iranians are that incompetent that firstly they had a malfunctioning limpet, then knowing it was malfunctioning instead of having one or two people close to it, in case it explodes …. they throw it clearly on the deck with … let me count … at least 10 people standing as close as they can to an unexploded malfunctioning BOMB.

Gee I did go through the fact that Iran is far from incompetent despite this in a military sense. Its not even absurd this USA crap, its insulting.

I cannot believe anyone dealing with explosives would throw something on the deck then kick it. I can however believe that would be the case with a rubber or plastic buffer or fender to protect the BOW of a small boat verses a massive tanker going up and down.

Of course one can never know but on the balance of probabilities and the fact that NONE of the idiots leading this USA side have any military experience of substance and clearly no common sense, serving this as proof ?

I am insulted. Of course I have no idea if they did it, Iran, but this video, is what it is. I would call the USA ambassador in immediate and ask for a please explain !!

Then again we are gutless sadly as a nation verses USA. I wish is was not so.

I repeat again ... I hasten to add I don't KNOW what occurred of if they are correct, but the reasons given with evidence shown leaves me going Bullsh%% and total BS ….

 

[kahuna1]

Part three tomorrow given the most recent claim of flying objects .... v Japanese tanker .

I suspect FBI called in and Mulder and Scully and X files open a case to find the objects. Ahh another TV series !!

 

[basilio]

Great piece of analysis Kahuna.

After the litany of lies this administration and previous US administrations have served up I have big reservations about any more stuff they create. I hope your dissection of the picture is understood by other "experts" and examined carefully.

Cheers

 

[kahuna1]

Yep.

I am not an expert, other than a curious observer with a critical eye and some limited knowledge.

Others can make even based upon simple observations and comments I have made, a reasoning and clear very obvious absurdities/lies as they have been presented by the USA. Lets dump a faulty bomb on deck, or was it a robust Buffer or fender made of plastic or rubber ... lets kick it ... the bomb the faulty one or a mere rubber plastic fender that's in the way. Lets all stand around a faulty Bomb ?

Pretty absurd this whole load from the USA. The straights of Hormuz are 39 km wide and the shipping lane is well inside the 12 mile Iranian territorial waters. Of course its a shipping lane and treated as such, so expecting NOT to see Iranian navy there is absurd. Then again likely missed as with all the rest.

That Iran has 3 Kilo class submarines which are a bit old but still reliable, range 7500 miles, then another 5 or 6 smaller ones, then 23 very small ones ... all armed with torpedoes and mines or missiles ... real ones .... again makes me wonder. They will be interesting if the USA wishes to go there.


Then again, it will be what it will be. Sadly.

 

[Sdajii]

Never use 100 words when 100,000 will do, huh?

 

[kahuna1]

We are not all as smart as you Saiji ...
Obviously the moron Trump knows even less with his crap overnight.

I will come back with yes a view, a longer winded logical one, which you can take or leave, or deride ... but I can tell you a lot more after thinking how any decent analyst would on this.

Where the mine was attached ? Where it is attached ... HOW physically it can be attached HOW and why it cant be ... even where it was attached in what location.

How the mine could be made, what its made of, how many needed to sink a ship or tanker that size.
Since some on this site seem just to heap dung or sprout idiotic crap ...

Presenting a logical well thought out case with pictures takes more than one word or an ideological dogma.
I suspect it may interest others how to make a limpet mine, who could have made it, where it was attached, and likely attached. Oh and a clear objective ....

Since I have some background, obviously ... from a very well displayed knowledge base that takes more than 128 characters to share ...

Thanks ASF on such a site ... thanks not so Much Sadiji I await your apology ? Or view ? On what I will share ? Dazzle us with somewhat more than a troll !!

 

[moXJO]

I'm sorry but a lot of your statements about the type of mine, damage done, surveillance and footage is wrong.
But as to who or why, that is a bit sketchy.

At the moment there are a lot of propagandists pushing to create false narratives, from both iran and Russia.

 

[kahuna1]

Oh ...

more stuff out.

USA wants a war. it cant win .... a distraction to keep Trump in ?

Bolton ...


10 years ago .... IRAN regime change ...



7 years ago . regime change ...



2 years ago ....



and on and on it goes.

 

[kahuna1]

I'm sorry but a lot of your statements about the type of mine, damage done, surveillance and footage is wrong.

please share ? why ... it was clearly limpet mine mine. ...3-5 kg explosives

cost less than $1,000- to produce.

Only way to cause damage as seen last month was being placed whilst ship is NOT moving and that is UAE waters or Saudi where the limpet was placed. But please dazzle me with your view.

I can elaborate as to WHY without doubt the mines were placed whilst Stopped and either at anchor or wharf.

In the meantime the marine capability of Iran is not some idiots in a bathtub.

Here is a decent link. Be bloody afraid for what the USA clearly wants.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...022217SP.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0lBnntuzyTXi64CVyZMhU2

 

[moXJO]

please share ? why ... it was clearly limpet mine mine. ...3-5 kg explosives

cost less than $1,000- to produce.

Only way to cause damage as seen last month was being placed whilst ship is NOT moving and that is UAE waters or Saudi where the limpet was placed. But please dazzle me with your view.

I can elaborate as to WHY without doubt the mines were placed whilst Stopped and either at anchor or wharf.

In the meantime the marine capability of Iran is not some idiots in a bathtub.

Here is a decent link. Be bloody afraid for what the USA clearly wants.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi-hrWGweriAhVDWH0KHYUTDAwQFjABegQIBhAC&url=https://www.oni.navy.mil/Portals/12/Intel%20agencies/iran/Iran%20022217SP.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0lBnntuzyTXi64CVyZMhU2

Sorry I misunderstood your above post.
I agree the explosion looks placed due to the way explosion was directed inwards and height on ship..

The footage was grainy due to the distance from the ship. You can tell due to how much it de-pixelates when they attempt to move the camera angles.

I doubt US will go to war.

 

[kahuna1]

It now has been revealed, the ship and video in question was the ONE not attacked via Limpet or magnetically placed mines but the Japanese one where Iran rescued the sailors, when it was attacked from the air, above the waterline and NO limpet was seen below the waterline.

USA clarified this first lie, Not Trump who still claims it was them removing a mine. what a dummy .... Japan the owner of the tanker has come out and called it a LIE.

here are a few other views and balanced ones.

First … is the best one.

Where Are the Skeptics as the Drums Roll for War with Iran?




"Zero Credibility" Progressives Rip Pompeo For His Shameful Press Conference On Iran




Trump Faking Iran Tanker Evidence?




A shot out of a drone via the first camera inside a phone …. is the line I love in this one.

 

[kahuna1]

Well here are some more rational clips about this incident.


Vijay Prashad: U.S. Rushes to Blame Iran for Tanker Attacks as Much of World Pushes for Diplomacy




Japan Says Trump Admin Is LYING About Iran Attack




the last one its not going to be Iraq 2.0 ….. Iran is TWICE as bad as Iraq and Afghanistan potentially.

See the above link.

But the Japanese are saying they are lying, USA, the damage to the Japanese ship came from the air, outside the gulf …. outside the straights of Hormuz just where the USA has a carrier force sitting there with a hive of drones above it, a permanent 24 hours a day 4 fighters in the air, off said aircraft carrier AWAC radar planes and 3 satellites let alone the escort of the carriers assets looking at this region …. the attack on this Japanese ship, clearly from the air, I doubt a bloody person flying a kite near the USA carrier force sitting just outside the gulf would not be MISSED.

This is not an unreasonable, nor illogical nor even a stretch of a basic knowledge of what happens with naval operations that anything is NOT recorded or missed.

USA wants war, so be it. Vietnam and Every drubbing the USA has had since then times about 3 is the outcome. Korea 60 years latter is still a mess. Cuba well that went well. Bay of Pigs a classic.



Heaven help us !!



I note the UK is backing these absurd claims. Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?



Witness Exposes Pompeo's Lies About Iran Incident




On this last one … Japanese calling USA a liar. Hit by a flying object, NOT a mine or Limpet mine to be exact, one that's magnetically placed on the side of a resting ship as opposed to a naval mine which is 100 times the size.



Japanese ship hit ABOVE the waterline, by flying objects. UFOs ?

FBI has been called. X files re opened and Scully and Mulder called in. Another TV series.


Clearly the Japanese hit NOT hit by Limpet mine nor a naval mine, NOR a torpedo but a flying object. One I might add encroaching upon USA carrier task force with 50 planes and 15 escort ships, 3 AWACS land based radar in support, 5 Naval versions of it, around 50 drones, 15 helicopters via escorts and 3 if not a lot more satellites looking down from above.

Oh really ... tell me another lie Mr Trump ?

Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?

Are we, as Australians yet again at war ?

 

[moXJO]

Theres a few possibilities and motives. One being that this will boost oil prices while Iran is under sanctions.
I wonder who the number one oil producing nation is these days.....

Under Trump the US is about turning a buck rather then starting a war. I'd follow the money on this one.

In saying that, everyone is churning out stories so the truth on these issues are never clear.

 

[Dark Knight 2.0]

I think what Sjadii is trying to say is: Who stands to gain from this? Not Iran - U.S. has more PR reasons to beef up presence in those Waters. So US. gains. Trump gains - a deflection from Mueller Investigation. Presidents gain a boost in Polls when they appear to be acting in nation's interests.
Who else gains? Russia - they want Trump as President as Mueller report found. China, Nth Korea and anyone else wanting to entangle US in conflict elsewhere. Saudi Arabia and Israel have apparently been wanting to drag U.S. into conflict with Iran and they Saudi Arabia benefit from increase in price of Crude do they not?
Why would Iran do it while Jap PM was in Iran? If they legitimately want to send a message, blow something up and don't deny it. All that little bomb did was give Trump more reason to beef up presence - you reckon Iran wants more Battlegroups in Gulf!
Jap Captain said they seemed fired upon. Jap and Norwegian ships - not Chinese, British or another dangerous country to mess with.
On the face of it, Iran didn't do it. I doubt Yanks did it, but they are certainly taking full advantage of it - Wag the Dog.

 

[kahuna1]

Never use 100 words when 100,000 will do, huh?

Hi Dark Knight ... Thats all Sadiji said ... rude ... and very bluntly so.

I await his apology, in vain, his weird views on the topic if he chooses to share them .... as well I am sure will astound as they did on climate change and its being all a hoax, not just one part, but all of it.

On any topic we often have idiotic extremes and even absurd ones. When y0ou ask a climate denial freak what issue they don't accept and they say ALL of them, you know they should be patted on the head and left out of ahy sane conversation. Satellites measuring CO2 or temperature change ... all fake ... in fact 20 things from ice core samples of ar bubble back 1 million years ... all fake ...


Much like this sort of topic ... about who did what ... if your stupid or blind its all true what is said. Even when ship owners and sailors deny it.


I have presented enough.

Iran is NOT Iraq and whilst I agree oil and the price of it, Saudi interests need desperately the price above $70-. USA shale oil does not even break even at $50- and Iran AND the oil it produces embargoes and sold at a vast discount to spot is irrelevant in this.

Conflict ? yep a distraction for Trump, about the only way he gets back in .... a nice War. Well this one will be a testing bed from hell if they like.

Winners ? Military industrial complex, another 4 years of Republican lax tax rules so all Oligarchy members from tech to banking love it .... Oil Industry of course ...

Looser, well USA. Iran with a unified one state, one religion, likely backed by China and Russia and clearly shown by China comment yesterday. EU not following USA lead, UK without a leader sucks up and follows .... this is a debacle from hell.

USA cannot defeat Iran without blasting it to hell via Nuclear option ... their navy whilst I suspect sunk in short order on the main will inflict a lot of damage ... missiles well ... ones that can tumble 300 bomblets out of them onto oil refineries 1000 km away ...

We stand poised. On the brink of a demented twitter troll ... no not Sandiji, he is a void of IQ, but at 128 characters a time Trump, he threatened nuclear war with north Korea then invasion of Valenzuela and on and on it goes.

Are we at war yet ? Mr Morrison have you found your spine. Or are you being abused like Turnball then hung up on the phone by him .... or waiting 90 minutes for a face to face meeting he was late for when eventually you met ?

Morrison has LESS spine than a jellyfish on a beach after 3 hours of SUN.

Are we at war yet ?

 

[Sdajii]

You repeatedly ask for an apology. Okay, I'm sorry I can't be bothered reading a huge slab of scarcely coherent emotional and arrogant rambling.

Heh, you call me a 'climate denial freak' who says climate change is a hoax, when I've always acknowledged the climate is changing and humans are playing a part. Shows your grasp on reality.

The fact that you can see some of the flaws in what the media is saying about this incident doesn't mean you're the military whiz you hype yourself up as. Acknowledging Fox's bias doesn't make CNN credible, and saying you understand CNN sometimes lies doesn't change the fact you're sucked into the overall narrative which is absolute garbage.

I'm not sure Iran is behind these attacks, they may be false flag, the potential motives from multiple players is obvious, although going off on emotional rants and bragging about how amazing your knowledge of military tactics and weapons are is silly when they're clearly without basis. Speculation on this topic is interesting but exaggerating what we can infer just makes it a silly conversation, especially when we use literally thousands of words where a fraction of it would be better, and especially when they're emotional and erratic rather than calm and sensible.

It's a shame this forum has devolved into emotional nonsense like this rather than more sane discussion. Reading the first post it's difficult to imagine this thread getting on a decent track.

 

[Dark Knight 2.0]

You are an amusing character Sdajii, but to those with relevant qualifications in the fields you debate, you would be an incredible source of frustration, particularly as some of the topics such as GW and social justice are extremely serious.

 

[kahuna1]

I am not an expert, other than a curious observer with a critical eye and some limited knowledge.

My caveat ...

bragging about how amazing your knowledge of military tactics and weapons are is silly when they're clearly without basis.

Really ... you are quite delusional ... still ..

emotional rants and bragging about how amazing your knowledge of military tactics and weapons are is silly when they're clearly without basis

Well ... its pretty basic stuff ... the weapons ,,, claimed ,,, size of explosive in a sea mine is 500 kg ... v limpet 3-5 kg ...

I repeat ... some limited knowledge !!

The size of blast, damage is consistent NOW with the admitted and accepted Limpet mine. Magnetically attached.

Others can make judgement of evidence presented as I have and 6 others sources I shared.
It is factual, easily observed via grainy video ... or simple searches of the internet .. and NOT emotionally presented.

Now more clear, USA, Saudi Arabia and UK, with Israel being the I told you so and UEA in one side and rest of the logical world being the other in this disbelief and logical examination of facts.

A limpet mine, now clear of the 6 ships hit, 5 were hit by a limpet mine a 10 year old could construct. Its small and size of a briefcase. Cost, and lets go cheap, a watertight likely double gasket, making it virtually unthinkable to ever get water inside, cost about $50- at Walmart or a good hardware store. Powered by NO moving parts, a timer and a countdown one on Ebay for $50- with 365 days and powered by 2 Duracell batteries giving if 3 years life another $50-. Then wires …. BEEP BEEP alarm to not the speaker but detonators and and ON off arming switch between it, utterly foolproof and a soldering kit and chances of any fail less than 1 in a million. This is the 10 year old's built version. So detonators and explosives made into a shaped charge, NOT any difficulty there at all. NONE … longer wires one side and shorter the other to focus the explosion into a shaped charge so the main force goes as a shaped charge in one direction. The same side the magnets are placed. The one up against the hull.

Now explosives and detonators, about 200 nations can get, 100 other groups and yet another 500 or so other groups inside and surrounding governments could get.

Magnets, massively strong ones, well I sent my 10 year old to the tip for old microwaves and removed from 3 for $2. the magnets inside old microwaves, which grip the metal side of a ship with over 25kg force needed to remove them. Or of course like the Ebay electronic countdown timer with 365 days I could buy them there for $20- plus freight. All up, explosives for a govt are cheap and we have a foolproof limpet, utterly reliable, $100- plus say $250- explosives. Well under $500- … but if your buying from a contractor a USA one its $50k. Hardly sophisticated or outside capabilities of my 10 year old nephew and a soldering kit.

Placement, well a moving ship at 15 knots or 25 km and hour I can rule OUT as when it occurred. It is Possible, but Impossible for a lot of reasons. One of the 5 totally impossible. I knew for a month it was LIMPET mines with 3-5 kg explosives NOT naval mines which ARE and could likely only come from a nation state with 500 kg of explosives in a sea mine and it would have broken a tanker in two. A limpet mine, a SINGLE limpet mine on a 50,000 ton tanker would be like trying to shoot a raging Elephant with a 22 gun. A marine mine a real one with 100 plus times force would be a battle tank main gun trying to stop the same elephant.

This aside, USA tried claiming it observed Iranian boats, 20 plus, fast light ones operating in the region. Well since its less than 12 nautical miles and inside Iranian territorial waters the shipping lanes GO to get into and out of the Gulf, of course they operate there. Any suggestion the approached the territorial waters of UAE or encroached or Saudi is absurd. Even the massive bases the USA operates in Saudi, in the UAE there is one with 3,500 personnel an air base the operates drones and maintains a 24 hour a day 6 fighter CAP, Combat Air Patrol and any activity would DOUBLE this with I would say 10 drones, 3 satellites around 15 fighters and then we have the warships USA ones, not the carrier battle group but over 15 operating inside the Gulf which would be, lets say, at battle stations so its absurd this new claim. Let alone NOT recorded in living colour.

As to HOW to place a limpet, firstly, ONE will never sink the tanker. Its merely a harassment. An absurd one. It is maybe possible giving the placement of some for it to have occurred whilst moving, highly unlikely at 25 km an hour underwater and IMPOSSIBLE without a souped up min sub matching speed cavitation and making as much noise as a FOGHORN underwater that even incompetent warships worried about subs, all 15 could hear from 100 km away. IT DID NOT HAPPEN … that way. The ships were stopped and they only stopped inside UAE and Saudi Waters. I can now confirm this from more rubbish released.

Now, one of the 5, it was IMPOSSIBLE to even do it whilst moving. The bombs all placed well under the waterline, U shaped Hull, 4 of the 5 the damage was low down the U shape and 12 foot under water. SOMEONE got wet. Suggesting the grainy photo is a recover of a Limpet a fool knows with NO moving parts, is less than 1 in 100,000 chance to fail, was placed below the gangway, in full sight of anyone looking over the side, exposed when the ship went up and down, exposed when it went side to side, makes intelligence claims even More absurd.

One should never use the words Intelligence with the word Military when it comes to these affairs.

So why do we know with almost 100% likelyhood they were placed in UAE waters or Saudi Waters ? Well tanker number 4 from a month ago, the blast was on the rear, and at the REAR, is a thing called a propeller. You know dummy, the thing that MOVES the ship. Even if remotely possible to place a contact mine on a moving target at 25 km underwater, the force is like sticking your head out of a jet at 500km an hour, possible, I suppose but so difficult and noisy to match pace an absurdity to suggest. To do so and a cleanly placed limpet mine under the REAR of a ship whilst propeller is moving, IS NOT POSSIBLE.

Seriously. What crap. Oh and I might add, to place said mine, despite magnets, bottoms of ships need cleaning with wire brush to remove slime and barnacles so mine is flush against said hull or it WILL bloody drop off. So there is little if any doubt WHERE they were placed. In the most intensely monitored waters on the planet above and to some extent below the water for an incursion. Then again a person in a speedboat and wet-suit and hopefully a re-breather system for no bubbles could do it.

This DOES not rule out IRAN, not suggesting it does. But claimed how put forward is ABSURD and if not insane.

Then the fact its ONE limpet meant to not destroy but, well damage. With a timer I presume if they spent the extra $2- on ebay for their timer has 365 day countdown. The cheaper one has 7 days, so WHY would one set the timer to explode a tanker into YOUR fishing grounds ? Or even time it so its passing close to your own waters, as the last one was, why not set it for say 10 days and its out to sea ? Again does not rule out Iran, but, well, letting it go off near you ? It could be a plot within a plot, but in your fishing grounds ? Oh really ?

An aside. My LIMITED NOVICE … knowledge and I share in memory of friends lost long ago, brave men who gave their lives for their nation protecting it on foreign shores many moons ago. We send brave men to protect us at times, and at others, of late, their sacrifices and misery they endure and inflict, is a disgrace to their past sacrifice for even at times misplaced foreign policy decisions. This, current state of permanent war for 18 years its time to just say NO as a nation.

The again, who cares ? One should.

As somewhat conversant in suspected capabilities, if it came to all out, I suspect prior to Iran being bombed from above, its naval side and more to the point missile capability would likely see 30 plus outright tankers sunk if not more, several massive oil refineries and pipelines destroyed, likely a few precious USA warships overwhelmed and if the Chinese have lent a few toys as I suspect they may have, like EMP and enhanced EMP missiles, the grainy 2 MP pictures will be replaced by phone cups with strings and even hardened EMP circuits will fry and look like plastic exposed to fire.

That is not suggesting a free ride for Iran even if it was them. It would seem, being fair its unlikely from evidence present if not absurd it WAS them. Maybe that is the devious scheme, and it was them. Not however from evidence and claimed course of events or claims it was technically only possible for it to be Iran. It was my mythical 10 year old nephew, and there IS no 10 year old Nephew. Building a waterproof container with a 265 day timer and wining with magnets, less than $100- , wiring up to the detonators and explodes simple. Foolproof uttery reliable and to suggest it fails ? Or is SET to explode in your backyard ? Your main fishing grounds ? A tanker filled with oil ?

Iran is seen in the region as a moderate state. I include another decent view from another.

Saudi Arabia has invited all skeptical journalists to any of its embassy offices to discuss the matter and be enlightened.

Am I being a know all ? I think NOT ... or claiming expert status ? Or being emotional ? Or not logical and critical ?

Whatever !! Factual, clinical and presenting it as best one can a complex situation and ... yep ... a more than passing knowledge which can be easily verified by a mere google search as to what a limpet mine bloody is .... and the rest is COMMON sense. Not some gibberish of emotional illogical conspiracy theory.

The mines were limpets. Placed whist ships were STOPPED almost assuredly.

Anyhow that clip ...



"No one else wants war": Vijay Prashad on U.S. aggression toward Iran

Make of it what you wish. Capabilities of Iranian Navy already given.

ASK more Questions. GET MORE facts ....

Oh and I found this amusing ...
Anyhow, USA admitted in back channels the reason for the poor quality was they used USA made technology without Chinese parts. So it looked like a 2 MP resolution v 100 MP the drones HAVE and at zero Optical zoom v 50 times they HAVE and at 5 times Digital zoom verses the 500 THYE actually have. Oh and colour let alone black and white.



Australia is like a spineless toad of the USA I might add. An opinion. The main part of the rest are facts.

One cannot place a limpet mine on the rear of the ship, near the propeller without the bloody thing not turning.

Make of all of it what you like. I would PREFER not to follow the USA. For obvious reasons.