IPM - Incremental Petroleum

jet328 · 8 September 2008

Completely agree guys
Scrip for scrip in COE is just not attractive
IPM has increasing earnings (I'm forecasting about 21c CY EPS just from Selmo), dividends & significant near term production growth which on a quick glance COE lacks
And to get 90% of the shares would require management support which COE has already tried...

Amazing how uninterested the market is! Normally you'd get some volume after a takeover announcement, but there is nothing today. Market must think there is about as much chance of this bid succeeding as me

pacestick · 8 September 2008

Find it hard to take this offer serious If it wasnt for the stated support of a institution I would be rolling around the floor with laughter. Would like to know the instos name so I can avoid doing business with them as they are obviously incompetent or desperate

jet328 · 8 September 2008

pacestick said:
Would like to know the instos name so I can avoid doing business with them as they are obviously incompetent or desperate

Just speculating here, but I'd guess that the insto probably owns shares in both companies. If you own both companies it makes sense for synergies, costs, management, larger market cap etc.

Mofra · 8 September 2008

jet328 said:
Just speculating here, but I'd guess that the insto probably owns shares in both companies. If you own both companies it makes sense for synergies, costs, management, larger market cap etc.

In theory, however you would have to expect that with interests so diversified & widespread that synergies would be very little. COE gain a cash-cow, a near production asset near Istanbul & a proven resource in California.
IPM holders get shares in a company that is trading higher than market ave P/Es on the speculative nature of projects that will require capital to bring to full production, lose their dividends & the short term upside from the new gas project.

Here's to hoping the board (or at least, > 10% of IPM shareholders) see the value I do, and not let COE avail themselves of an opporunistic bid. Who the hell do they think they are, Xstrata?

eddyeagle · 9 September 2008

Good to see a 20% jump on the Takeover offer - only problem is i am still 15% below my purchase price

Mofra · 11 September 2008

From teh announcement today, advising holders to take no action:

The directors of Incremental Petroleum advise shareholders to TAKE NO ACTION to this highly conditional, unsolicited and opportunistic offer.

Sounds like the board have the same reservations regarding the take-over as myself (and I presume most holders). If COE want to wait for Erdine to start producing then re-value the company on a market-average PE basis taking into account the dividend as well & further upside from the Ankora & Californian prospect areas, and then offer fair value for IPM, I'll be all ears

pacestick · 8 October 2008

In trading halt target statement rubbishes coe values ipm at more than it was trading at before slump let alone what its trading at now wish i could get someone to pay the sort of prices that independent experts value shares at

DOC · 11 October 2008

hi moiru & ors, been away for a while, but funny enough still holding much the same parcel of IPM since the IPO, plus a little more.

i agree the takeover offer is rubbish from every angle and does not come close to a decent offer.
pity our shares arent currently sitting anywhere near the valuation provided in the target statment. Wow!

still a great stock to hold, and about as recession proof as you get these days with mining stocks!

pacestick · 11 October 2008

wish I could be sure more ipm holders wont give in to pressures in mkt at moment and sell coe at 20% didnt think they would get that much

DOC · 11 October 2008

they only got 14% from the panic sellers, the other 5 % they already owned as shareholders themselves.
even in this climate, you really should think twice before accepting the first offer, let alone any offer that cheap!

Mofra · 11 October 2008

DOC said:
they only got 14% from the panic sellers, the other 5 % they already owned as shareholders themselves.
even in this climate, you really should think twice before accepting the first offer, let alone any offer that cheap!

In any language the takeover offer was ridiculously low, even without COE stating they aren't looking to pay a dividend in the near future

Rob_ee · 17 October 2008

Mofra said:
In any language the takeover offer was ridiculously low, even without COE stating they aren't looking to pay a dividend in the near future

Ridicilously low it may be but the problem is that this $4+ analyst valued stock is now selling for .785 cents.

There is so little buying volume that it would not take much to drive it down to between 60-70 cents. All we need is for the yanks to do a few more 800 point intraday swings in this panic market environment.

Laughable I know but I never expected to see this type of price available.

So i bought in @ 86 cents congratulating myself on my trading prowess.
If say it got to 65 cents the COE offer of 50c cash + 1.9 shares I would take like a shot.
I am assuming that cOE's management will try to get the price a little higher.
Lets face it, COE is already trading below break up value.
With $70 mil cash in the bank divided by 250 mil shares the cash value alone is worth 28 cents which is more than the current price.

There may be much more institutional interest at sub 70 cent prices.
Lets face it the institutions can not ofload on market since a single 100k sell order would wipe out all buyers.

All hypothetical of course, COE are outrageously opportunistic BUT they have all that cash which in this market environment is king.

Seeing that the price has dropped substantionally since the latest posts how do you people feel about it know.

For the record I hold both, IPM for the dividend, outstanding diversified prospects and astute management.
COE for the cash, selling $1mil of oil per week and possibe company making prospects overseas.

Either way is ok by me

Rob

pacestick · 24 October 2008

COE offer went unconditional today any comment what does this mean to their overall chances of getting the company, Is the share price likely to rise more or not

exgeo · 25 October 2008

I was a bit mystified as to the cause of Friday's sharp price rise. I think management alone have a large enough stake to ensure that Cooper can't get full control (above 90% to trigger compulsory acquistion) and it also seems that most of the shares COE have acquired have come from institutions, who were probably having to get cash wherever they could to meet redemptions, not from small investors. So it seems to me that it might actually be negative in the long term because COE will have a large, but not controlling block of shares that will overhang the market in the future; you never know when COE might decide to sell.

pacestick · 25 October 2008

No chance of a white knight play in action with senior execs using contacts in wpl and others. This may be one explanation for fridays jump in price

pacestick · 27 October 2008

well half right it was awhite knight but not wpl could see a further offer yet hopefully $1.05 is just below my buy in price

jackson8 · 27 October 2008

pacestick said:
well half right it was awhite knight but not wpl could see a further offer yet hopefully $1.05 is just below my buy in price

well it is pretty well pre trading price of three years ago so unless you had bought into that long ago or on the couple of occasions over the past year when it has traded below 1.05 it is not such a great return on your investment

if you ask me an opportunistic attempt to purchase the company at a time when people would beleive that their is no more upside to any company

at least by accepting coe you have the possiblity of future growth by holding their shares and any future growth that ipm may have acheived should be reflected in coe share price

pacestick · 27 October 2008

I find the whole thing frustrating as when i bought into ipm in mid 08 I had been through a check list of looking at other oil exploration and development companies looking for those that suited my requirements coe was so different from them those requirements that i eliminated it early. That is not to say it may not be a good company just that their strategy involves a larger risk than ipm , which of course has the possibility of a higher return or a higher loss and it did not pay a dividend . While both of them did have the possibility of further growth

Mofra · 28 October 2008

jackson8 said:
at least by accepting coe you have the possiblity of future growth by holding their shares and any future growth that ipm may have acheived should be reflected in coe share price

If you really wanted further upside in COE, you'd be better off taking the $1.05 cash offer and buying Cooper shares on market, and pocketing some change. Either way, I'm sure we are going to see a host of opportunistic offers on market as most mining stocks are trading at near their cash-backing per share value, and oilers are written down to current production value only, assuming credit for development is going to be either more difficult to obtain or more costly than previous estimates.

pacestick · 30 October 2008

It will be interesting to see who the third party the board is in discussions with is hopefully we will get a notification by monday

IPM - Incremental Petroleum

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