IPM - Incremental Petroleum

[windwalker]

Hi Doc, Noirua, Bonk
Have joined you with this one,
Cheers

 

[DOC]

best of luck windwalker.
looks like some good news is on the horizon with the turkish government dropping its royalty tax rates.
IMO, still the cheapest, debt free,income producing, oil stock around.

cheers
doc

 

[noirua]

I have sold my holding in IPM as I move to 80% cash. I still hold a number of speculative stocks and that is the reason for selling really. Have to reduce somewhere. Everything looks good for the Selma Oil Field, so, good luck to everyone.

 

[Dutchy3]

Only a daily chart and the weekly is indicating a stage 4 stock however. Perhaps a quick LONG opportunity .... this is on my watchlist

 

[DOC]

hi, i hope your right dutchy.
toay was great up 6%. more to come?
i bought a little more @ 1.21

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi DOC ... indeed I've been a buyer .... STOP 1.30 ish

 

[Dutchy3]

Held up OK at the end of the week ... note that this is a daily chart and given the way this one has moved in the past any run up might be characterised buy days of selling ...

 

[Dutchy3]

Big Whites breed Big Whites ...

This is only a daily ... so for me quick and dirty yet todays action indicates of hold until the market signals otherwise ...

 

[jet328]

With value more difficult to find at the moment, I think this is one of the real stand-outs.

-currently trading on p/e ratio of just 7
-earnings to significantly increase due tax change in Turkey (announcement 22/01/07) without producing an extra barrel
-sizeable potential to increase production from workovers
-lessons learnt and data gained after operating the field this last year
-they've been a bit unlucky with the weather which decreased production (worst weather in 25 years)
-low recovery rate from previous owner Mobil of 16%
-100% owned by Incremental
-AUD$15 cost of production per barrel
-very long production lifetime. P2 reserves = 12M, 25 years+
-good reports from analysts (on IPM's website)
-director buying on market this week

Worth the time to research

Cheers

Disclosure- I hold

 

[DOC]

hi jett,

i currently still hold this stock, and have received both a 3c dividend and a 5cent return on capital last year. impressive.
I still think its the cheapest oil stock around based on the figures you mentioned which are all correct. (dividends, cashflow positive profit, no hedging, no debt, reduced government taxes, increased workover drilling methods, plenty of reserves, are my main reasons for staying in this one)

New workover drilling results are to be released over the next few months, with great expectations that this time the new techiques will prove favourable, and proitable by way of increased low cost production (BBL/d).

best of luck to all.

cheers
Doc

DYOR always.

 

[jet328]

IPM's CEO has been buying up recently.

He bought a substantial amount on market last week.
Always good to see management buying, especially on market

 

[lazyfish]

IPM acquired 45% interest in the Edirne project, through cash payments and exploration. The Joint Venture has already received an Expression of Interest to purchase gas from the gas fields in the Edirne License from Zorlu Petrogas, who has commenced pipeline construction activities. At this stage it is not clear how much reserve there is. However, today’s announcement (4th Sept 2007) stated that IPM has already identified and plans to drill two ~30bcf targets in Dec 2007/Feb 2008 (with potential upside). Given the current gas price of ~$10/mcf, if fully recovered, these 2 targets alone will bring in revenue of 270 million to IPM. Drilling the wells will cost only USD $300,000 each. First gas production is expected end of 2008. IMHO this is a project with huge upside potential and low risks.:car:

 

[DOC]

IPM acquired 45% interest in the Edirne project, through cash payments and exploration. The Joint Venture has already received an Expression of Interest to purchase gas from the gas fields in the Edirne License from Zorlu Petrogas, who has commenced pipeline construction activities. At this stage it is not clear how much reserve there is. However, today’s announcement (4th Sept 2007) stated that IPM has already identified and plans to drill two ~30bcf targets in Dec 2007/Feb 2008 (with potential upside). Given the current gas price of ~$10/mcf, if fully recovered, these 2 targets alone will bring in revenue of 270 million to IPM. Drilling the wells will cost only USD $300,000 each. First gas production is expected end of 2008. IMHO this is a project with huge upside potential and low risks.:car:

some interesting facts regarding the gas projects Lazyfish, thanks for that.
i'm still very bullish on this stock ( and still hold this one), especially in this volatile climate .
if you look at their website incrementalpetroleum.com, you can download the latest report and from analyst ('Tricom Equities' who did the ipo for BNB) .
In the report dated 28.8.07 they have increased their valuation and price target to 2.10. Impressive! BUT PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

best of luck.

DOC

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

IPM ..... will be alert for some significant and positive news,
around 21-22112007 .....

21-22112007 ..... 3 time cycles come into play here

07122007 ..... positive spotlight on IPM ...

11122007 ..... positive news expected here

17-18122007 ..... minor cycle

28-31122007 ..... minor news

Looking ahead, January and February 2008 look mostly positive
for IPM, but it may turn negative again, from early-March 2008.

happy days

paul



=====

 

[DOC]

Hi folks,

IPM ..... will be alert for some significant and positive news,
around 21-22112007 .....

21-22112007 ..... 3 time cycles come into play here

07122007 ..... positive spotlight on IPM ...

11122007 ..... positive news expected here

17-18122007 ..... minor cycle

28-31122007 ..... minor news

Looking ahead, January and February 2008 look mostly positive
for IPM, but it may turn negative again, from early-March 2008.

happy days

paul



=====

hi Paul,
i wish the current share price reflected your optism. anyway, the whole market is getting slammed at the moment, and this is still a dividend paying, cashflow profitable stock. i'm hoping that the $90+ current oil price will see healthy profits for this CY.

BTW, i'm curious how you get your stock predicitions/guestimates?

cheers,
doc

 

[lazyfish]

I think the recent news of turkey troops crossing into iraq is not helping the sp. I took the chance to top up. : Hopefully peace can return soon.

 

[DOC]

I think the recent news of turkey troops crossing into iraq is not helping the sp. I took the chance to top up. : Hopefully peace can return soon.

yes thanks Lazyfish, some interesting news, however in my opinion after visiting Turkey, its definately changing as it strives to join the EU within the next 5 years. I noticed especially along the mediterannean towns where i stayed that almost all of the properties were being purchased by British citizens looking to cash in on the real estate while its cheap, and also looking for a great holiday home. definately exciting times ahead for turkey.

BTW, i topped up a little myself last week.

best of luck to all in the new year.
doc

 

[Mofra]

Howdy holders & interested parties.

I have IPM on my watchlist, obviously an oiler with low PEs is going to be worth watching. I've noticed a few ask why IPM is trading at such low PEs, my question if answered will probably go some way to explaining this.

Why did Mobil, one of the larger & presumedly highly expertised companies in the industry, only achieve a 16% recovery rate for Selmo? The "workover" process not being pushed forward due to size would be the major reason?

 

[Mofra]

Just another little point to note, the Selmo oilfield is next to Diyarnakir in Turkey. Just checking the map below:



It appears this is also smack bang in the middle of Northern Kurdistan (according to traditional borders), so it appears the current problems in Northern Iraq & the Turkish actions against the Kurds will impact on the company as the wider market attempts to price for risk.

 

[lazyfish]

Howdy holders & interested parties.

I have IPM on my watchlist, obviously an oiler with low PEs is going to be worth watching. I've noticed a few ask why IPM is trading at such low PEs, my question if answered will probably go some way to explaining this.

Why did Mobil, one of the larger & presumedly highly expertised companies in the industry, only achieve a 16% recovery rate for Selmo? The "workover" process not being pushed forward due to size would be the major reason?

I think Mobil halted operation in the early 1990s because it got attacked by the Kurds. So about 80 mmbo produced till then out of 500 mmbo oil in place gives around 16%. Fat prophet had stated in its IPM report that average recovery for most fields were around 25%.

Of course there is the risk of this happening again. But from what I read there is now a Turkey Army base in the middle of Selmo. IPM, being one of the few employers in the region, hires mostly Kurds.