IPL - Incitec Pivot

ithatheekret · 10 January 2008

This is stock is studio blue .

But it shows the power of liquidity , the investment arms of banks , have got the pillars CEO's scraping poop off their shoes again ........ all over the country , nasty having an index leveraged to poop scrapers .

If 114 was bottom that would be rather comfortable , but if we see a decline after what I thought was short covering in the US , we may have to add 109/110 right smack in the middle of one of the ranges .

ithatheekret · 10 January 2008

Ca5(PO4)3F

Find out what that is and you'll know why I like this stock .

I hope I'm allowed to post this , but I think this stock is going to go blue sky mining around the $170/$180 area in the reasonably near future , ten (10) months would be enough to gauge the prospects ( 200days) .

In fact it could be one of the better 2008 stocks .

Are we allowed to say Monsanto here ?

I think that's a wonderful stock too .............

grace · 10 January 2008

ithatheekret said:
Ca5(PO4)3F

Find out what that is and you'll know why I like this stock .

I hope I'm allowed to post this , but I think this stock is going to go blue sky mining around the $170/$180 area in the reasonably near future , ten (10) months would be enough to gauge the prospects ( 200days) .

In fact it could be one of the better 2008 stocks .

Are we allowed to say Monsanto here ?

I think that's a wonderful stock too .............

It is calcium fluorapatite I think. Is it used with rare earths to make lasers?
This company seems to have a healthy share of the fertilizer market. Makes plenty of money selling it (more than the farmers do by fertilizing their crops). We are just horrified at the prices we have be pay for fertilizer! Should just own part of this company instead!

michael_selway · 10 January 2008

ithatheekret said:
Ca5(PO4)3F

Find out what that is and you'll know why I like this stock .

I hope I'm allowed to post this , but I think this stock is going to go blue sky mining around the $170/$180 area in the reasonably near future , ten (10) months would be enough to gauge the prospects ( 200days) .

In fact it could be one of the better 2008 stocks .

Are we allowed to say Monsanto here ?

I think that's a wonderful stock too .............

Ca5(PO4)3F...hmno idea, please tell us!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 627.7 628.7 604.5
DPS 300.0 471.0 456.8 431.0

thx

MS

ithatheekret · 10 January 2008

Yep that's the one Grace . I know what you mean , bag of super an acre , plus seed , + + + + + , then pray for rain .

That's just superphosphate .

Ca5(PO4)3F is phosphate rock , but it contains varying levels of fluoride too .

They crunch it all up chuck in some sulphuric acid get a reaction which lets off a gas that's full of fluoride , which they then purify through water by dissolving it and then concentrating it . It gives them fluorsilicic acid .

The Geelong plant ( where they make it ) is undergoing a storage expansion and productivity increasing measures through automation , so the company can increase volumes etc.etc.etc.

Now that's all I'm chucking in , off ya's go and research . research , research .

After the research think ASIA ..............

grace · 10 January 2008

ithatheekret said:
Yep that's the one Grace . I know what you mean , bag of super an acre , plus seed , + + + + + , then pray for rain .

That's just superphosphate .

Ca5(PO4)3F is phosphate rock , but it contains varying levels of fluoride too .

They crunch it all up chuck in some sulphuric acid get a reaction which lets off a gas that's full of fluoride , which they then purify through water by dissolving it and then concentrating it . It gives them fluorsilicic acid .

The Geelong plant ( where they make it ) is undergoing a storage expansion and productivity increasing measures through automation , so the company can increase volumes etc.etc.etc.

Well, I'm going to brush aside the most common use which is flouridation of drinking water (but then now that us Qlders will finally have that, demand will increase.... Perhaps it could be something else........

Fluorsilicic acid can be used instead of (and is often preferred to) Fluorspar which is used primarily as a flux in steelmaking to reduce slag, lower melting point and remove impurities. Also used in turning Alumina to aluminium metal.

grace · 12 January 2008

Hey, "its a secret", how did I do? Did I get the answer right....and if so, are they currently selling for this reason, how much, very profitable??????????

ithatheekret · 12 January 2008

It's profitable , even more profitable , when considering the limited licences to produce are in the extreme minority . Only one of these has to close and the market price gets rattled , Asian demand will rise in all of the areas you mentioned come on line , theres' also an application for pure gypsum that can use the product , but I believe that is in a raw form , for a type of plastering .

Amorphous Silica , with very high purity levels (95-98%) can be made though an ammoniation process of the chemical , this synthetic product is used in the production of semi-conductor chips etc. as it has excellent insulation properties .

So you see it not just farmers that will want the companies products in Asia .

There's more too in other areas , but hmmm, I'll wait until CNBC cotton on .
You just got 2 months research for free . :

PS.. You did okay Grace , cheers

ithatheekret · 15 January 2008

I thought I'd better put a chart up showing the movements in the last 10 days , 10 days of madness throughout the markets.

ithatheekret · 18 January 2008

It's breached below $110 .00 , so far to $109.80 seen a little support , what there is out there .............

I have bids lined up down at $87 + through to $98 , just in case it gets back there .

ithatheekret · 24 January 2008

ithatheekret said:
Taken a pounding in the last couple of days .

I have some level areas notched in , which I thought would be good to put up for retracement discussions etc.etc.

81/84

87-9/91

98/111

114-5/116-8

119/120-123

I don't have enough data for the any higher levels .

81/84 87-89/91 98/111 114-5/116-118 119/120-123

I think we've found the levels so far , my orders are still in , but I think I've blown it , I didn't pick up any when it hit $100 even .

ithatheekret · 4 February 2008

Just pulled up the equities a/cs , shocked . Been so busy , with bloomin' forex I forgot coalers shot up again too .

treefrog · 7 February 2008

given the royal tour of wifey's elderly uncle's sheep properties in the mallee districts quite recently and enquired how often they fertilised the crop areas these days - 'oh not these days laddie, fert is too dear, we leave the paddocks sit fer a year or two after a crop'
I proffered that the fertiliser was too dear because incitec pivot was charging too much and making too much money - their share price was now about $120."is it really?" he responded "i've got a few of those"
suggested that he could sell the shares and afford fertiliser but he insisted he only had a few 'they used to give us a few when we bought a few bags of their fertiliser - they don't do that anymore'
so how many would you have i enquired - after a long pause, "about 3100 I think, I like to keep things to that 31 number"
so I suggested that 3100 IPL was significant but he reackoned not - was the only share he held that did not total 31000 units, so I agreed then it was just a few and asked why the number 31? just like it laddie he replied, 10 companies with 31000 shares in each - always used to buy a few shares with some of my wool cheque, but can't afford them now - too dear. used to get them for less than a pound each you know" as we walked to the edge of a dam very low in water a pulled a woolly from the mud.
what are the main ones you hold then I asked
"hmmm, woolies, broken hill co, boral - they split that one in half you know - can't recall the others atm but no banks - don't like banks"
had to wonder why we weren't inspecting the acerage in a hummer or helicopter rather than an EK ute
you should sell those incitec when they get to $150 shortly I advised - would be a good price. "$150, really, that high? but no, I never sell my shares - wouldn't know how to.".

chops_a_must · 14 February 2008

treefrog said:
given the royal tour of wifey's elderly uncle's sheep properties in the mallee districts quite recently and enquired how often they fertilised the crop areas these days - 'oh not these days laddie, fert is too dear, we leave the paddocks sit fer a year or two after a crop'
I proffered that the fertiliser was too dear because incitec pivot was charging too much and making too much money - their share price was now about $120."is it really?" he responded "i've got a few of those"
suggested that he could sell the shares and afford fertiliser but he insisted he only had a few 'they used to give us a few when we bought a few bags of their fertiliser - they don't do that anymore'
so how many would you have i enquired - after a long pause, "about 3100 I think, I like to keep things to that 31 number"
so I suggested that 3100 IPL was significant but he reackoned not - was the only share he held that did not total 31000 units, so I agreed then it was just a few and asked why the number 31? just like it laddie he replied, 10 companies with 31000 shares in each - always used to buy a few shares with some of my wool cheque, but can't afford them now - too dear. used to get them for less than a pound each you know" as we walked to the edge of a dam very low in water a pulled a woolly from the mud.
what are the main ones you hold then I asked
"hmmm, woolies, broken hill co, boral - they split that one in half you know - can't recall the others atm but no banks - don't like banks"
had to wonder why we weren't inspecting the acerage in a hummer or helicopter rather than an EK ute
you should sell those incitec when they get to $150 shortly I advised - would be a good price. "$150, really, that high? but no, I never sell my shares - wouldn't know how to.".

Bahahaha. Classic.

Looks like IPL is now breaking out of another channel. A really beautiful chart, with a hell of a lot of interest on any dips. Could be just blowing off but doesn't look overpriced compared to some other growth stocks I follow, decent EPS and DPS to boot.

MRC & Co · 29 February 2008

treefrog said:
given the royal tour of wifey's elderly uncle's sheep properties in the mallee districts quite recently and enquired how often they fertilised the crop areas these days - 'oh not these days laddie, fert is too dear, we leave the paddocks sit fer a year or two after a crop'
I proffered that the fertiliser was too dear because incitec pivot was charging too much and making too much money - their share price was now about $120."is it really?" he responded "i've got a few of those"
suggested that he could sell the shares and afford fertiliser but he insisted he only had a few 'they used to give us a few when we bought a few bags of their fertiliser - they don't do that anymore'
so how many would you have i enquired - after a long pause, "about 3100 I think, I like to keep things to that 31 number"
so I suggested that 3100 IPL was significant but he reackoned not - was the only share he held that did not total 31000 units, so I agreed then it was just a few and asked why the number 31? just like it laddie he replied, 10 companies with 31000 shares in each - always used to buy a few shares with some of my wool cheque, but can't afford them now - too dear. used to get them for less than a pound each you know" as we walked to the edge of a dam very low in water a pulled a woolly from the mud.
what are the main ones you hold then I asked
"hmmm, woolies, broken hill co, boral - they split that one in half you know - can't recall the others atm but no banks - don't like banks"
had to wonder why we weren't inspecting the acerage in a hummer or helicopter rather than an EK ute
you should sell those incitec when they get to $150 shortly I advised - would be a good price. "$150, really, that high? but no, I never sell my shares - wouldn't know how to.".

This reminds me of a quote I heard by one of the leading stockbrokers in the US, relating this metaphor to investing in stocks, it goes something like:

If you put 1000 men in barrels and push them off Niagra falls, some of them are going to survive. If you then take those survivers, put them in barrels and push them back over Niagra falls, some of those are going to survive again. These men will then write books about how to survive while being pushed over Niagra falls in a barrel!

This bloke should start writing books! Out of the banks (good market timing ), buy good companies and hold (value investing ). Unbeleivable how much he would be worth and he doesnt even know it! ha ha ha, good story treefrog!

MRC & Co · 2 March 2008

What do you guys make of the huge spike in volume on Friday with ultimately, barely any price movement?

Looked to be on a role at first, then some huge sellers came in!

ithatheekret · 4 March 2008

I think this stock is a beauty . 50% rise from the dip to $100 in around 3 months .

Certainly stood out in the crowd today .

michael_selway · 4 March 2008

ithatheekret said:
I think this stock is a beauty . 50% rise from the dip to $100 in around 3 months .

Certainly stood out in the crowd today .

It might be expensive to buy now u think?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 824.6 833.5 830.3
DPS 300.0 577.0 590.0 608.2

Date: 7/2/2008
Author: Tracy Lee
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 8
Australian-listed agricultural fertiliser group Incitec Pivot has enjoyed stronggrowth in recent years. The stock is now trading above $A100, and the mostbullish analysts expect it to rise to around $A148. Much of Incitec Pivot'ssuccess has stemmed from its decision to focus on manufacturing rather than thedistribution of fertilisers. Manufacturing now accounts for more than 80 percent of Incitec's earnings, while the acquisition of Southern CrossFertilisers has allowed it to capitalise on the surging price of ammoniumphosphate. Meanwhile, an efficiency program known as Tardis has significantlyexceeded Incitec's expectations in terms of cost savings

thx

MS

MRC & Co · 4 March 2008

michael_selway said:
It might be expensive to buy now u think?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 401.6 824.6 833.5 830.3
DPS 300.0 577.0 590.0 608.2

thx

MS

Yes, I think it could be expensive, but there is still definately room left for this one yet if those forecasts are reached!

ithatheekret · 4 March 2008

I can't disagree Micheal , I've moved most of my position off , only left with 150 .

This is where I ask myself a few questions .

Does it represent good value in the current market ?

Are the institutions coming onboard ?

Is the sentiment of the share under scrutiny ?

Is there room for further growth ?

Are earnings expected to continue to be robust ?

What is the global outlook for this stock ?

And ... what does the chart say ?

IPL - Incitec Pivot

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