Investment implications of WW3

[wayneL]

If we aren't already in it, it looks like it is almost inevitable now. I'm no military analyst, but I think the West will lose this one, unless the Americans have something pretty spectacular up their sleeve.

If so, and given than it could easily be a nuclear exchange, how would this effect the investment *moonscape?

I guess PMs are a good go to, maybe baked bean suppliers? Otherwise, what?

 

[finicky]

Thinking of how authorities and a lot of people reacted to the Covid threat most of us will die from insanity and panic first. On the bright side, Xi Jinping, Putin and the Ayatollahs will get their faces melted off as well.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

if such an escalation plays out,
- essential services get nationalised/ requisitioned
- production switches to war footing
- non essential services wither.
- bond markets get messed up as financing the war effort kicks in
- property market becomes moribund

Rationing is likely. And remember, we only have 3 weeks' fuel supply, and are net importers.

 

[SirRumpole]

I think I'll buy shares in radiation detector companies.

 

[divs4ever]

if such an escalation plays out,
- essential services get nationalised/ requisitioned
- production switches to war footing
- non essential services wither.
- bond markets get messed up as financing the war effort kicks in
- property market becomes moribund

Rationing is likely. And remember, we only have 3 weeks' fuel supply, and are net importers.

WOW , i can't believe you are more pessimistic than me

add in desperate governments try to confiscate precious metals , useful productivity plummets

the fit healthy people get taught to march in formation and then get handed a weapon

and sadly major wars are the usual standard exit for financially desperate nations ( lest the citizens change the Government without bothering with an election )

 

[divs4ever]

I think I'll buy shares in radiation detector companies.

i bought into BIS in February 2022 ( under $1.50 )

what to buy if the war gets physical ???

well the concrete makers aren't traveling so well but maybe they will survive the war to rebuild later

 

[peter2]

Physical gold and silver for sure. How can you use crypto's when there's no electricity?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

WOW , i can't believe you are more pessimistic than me

between the optimist and the pessimist lies the realist.
That's what they did last time,

one investment would be G6M

List of Countries By Tungsten Production

China is the largest producer of tungsten in the world.

www.worldatlas.com

 

[divs4ever]

Physical gold and silver for sure. How can you use crypto's when there's no electricity?

but where it is very difficult to find ( because somebody will come looking if they think you have it )

 

[macca]

Physical gold and silver for sure. How can you use crypto's when there's no electricity?

I would head to precious metals in small pieces, small bars are probably best, coins are surcharged by the mint.

Bullion dealers would be a good place to start, various units available and could be bartered for many things after the **** hits the fan.

Small land holdings in places that grow food easily would be popular but also would need to be defended.

Various tools (not electric) would be good for barter, bags of nails, screws, hammers, handsaws, axes etc etc

Failing that we all move to Farmerge or Qld froggie places

 

[divs4ever]

between the optimist and the pessimist lies the realist.
That's what they did last time,

one investment would be G6M

List of Countries By Tungsten Production

China is the largest producer of tungsten in the world.

www.worldatlas.com

i am having difficulty getting my target price for NIC ( to bulk up the holding )

a nickel-based product + Indonesia ( less likely to jump neck-deep into someone else's war )

but war kills a lot of things ( including profitable companies )

yes my parents grew up during WW2 ( as teenagers ) ( one in Oz the other in NZ )

the question is ... is our leadership any better than WW1 or WW2 ... i think not

 

[divs4ever]

I would head to precious metals in small pieces, small bars are probably best, coins are surcharged by the mint.

Bullion dealers would be a good place to start, various units available and could be bartered for many things after the **** hits the fan.

Small land holdings in places that grow food easily would be popular but also would need to be defended.

Various tools (not electric) would be good for barter, bags of nails, screws, hammers, handsaws, axes etc etc

Failing that we all move to Farmerge or Qld froggie places

yeah , i might be a bit too close to Amberley if things go nuclear , but have a couple of cliffs that should be tank-resistant ( and a selection of snakes as well , not just blacks and browns )

 

[Smurf1976]

if such an escalation plays out,
- essential services get nationalised/ requisitioned
- production switches to war footing
- non essential services wither.
- bond markets get messed up as financing the war effort kicks in
- property market becomes moribund

At least plausibly the stock market becomes subject to a change of operation designed to stabilise prices.

I'm pretty sure there are precedents for that in various countries.

 

[Telamelo]

I think if **** hits the fan & WWW3 breaks out then essential services we take for granted such as water, electricity, telecommunications etc. will all be disrupted to an extent (no internet/wifi once telecommunications get knocked out).

 

[divs4ever]

I think if **** hits the fan & WWW3 breaks out then essential services we take for granted such as water, electricity, telecommunications etc. will all be disrupted to an extent (no internet/wifi once telecommunications get knocked out).

given the current internet reliability ( over the last three years) , it might not be enemy action , just full networks ( after the military grabs a BIG chunk for 'essential operations' )
i would also expect reduced retail investor/trading activity , as there will be big distractions elsewhere ( even if Australia isn't actually attacked )

 

[sptrawler]

From what I have read Governments do confiscate and regulate gold and silver, in times of crisis, I may be wrong but I think I've read that sometime in the cloudy past.
If ww3 breaks out IMO, it will be messy, people are very complacent and take for granted, many things they will have difficulty coping with when they are gone.
Heating, cooling, cooking, fuel, sewage, water, then you move down to the next level, no fresh food, no trucks supplying the supermarkets, no freezers in the supermarkets, so where do you get your food from? Oh that's right food stamps and stand in a queue for a shopping bag of basics.
People are in for a shock. Lol

 

[qldfrog]

between the optimist and the pessimist lies the realist.
That's what they did last time,

one investment would be G6M

List of Countries By Tungsten Production

China is the largest producer of tungsten in the world.

www.worldatlas.com

As noted before, any small critical producer would be nationalised or taken over defacto by gov.
The shareholders provided with war effort bonds or other nice vounchers , useful collector's items if the country survives or nice wallpaper for the dunny at the back.
In wars, major companies survive think s32, bhp Rio with shareholders often robbed...sadly, chess records were wiped out by an electromagnetic missile.....
And you will not eat your last print out.
We can hope for power, hacking and low level bombing but even that..best investment for the commoners like us, not the mega rich looking at that from Geneva would be black market,PM, stealing goods and wives of the neighbours gone to jail or marched to death and dobbing.
Always keep low profile
Look at Europe WWII, look at Ukraine now and the thousands feeding on the west help from their Riviera mansions

 

[divs4ever]

From what I have read Governments do confiscate and regulate gold and silver, in times of crisis, I may be wrong but I think I've read that sometime in the cloudy past.
If ww3 breaks out IMO, it will be messy, people are very complacent and take for granted, many things they will have difficulty coping with when they are gone.
Heating, cooling, cooking, fuel, sewage, water, then you move down to the next level, no fresh food, no trucks supplying the supermarkets, no freezers in the supermarkets, so where do you get your food from? Oh that's right food stamps and stand in a queue for a shopping bag of basics.
People are in for a shock. Lol

they have in the past , sometimes not even during war-time , however not many governments have the man-power to go door-to-door and carefully search every residence , they usually force various storage companies to 'open the vaults/safety deposit boxes'

however don't discount a 'dob in a neighbor ' campaign ( claiming PM hoarders 'terrorists/criminals etc etc )

they have in the past ( including the US ) made private ownership of gold illegal while others ( like India ) have made it illegal ( at times ) to import gold ( apart from official channels )

messy indeed and don't discount the already rising crime rate where a Face-Book post will get 5 police on your door but a home break-in will not

 

[Knobby22]

I'm into futuristic shows e.g. The Last of Us. and no one survives by shaving bits of gold from their hoard.

It's always about generators, growing your own food and being useful. Once the communication networks fail everything collapses

WayneL would be OK with his blacksmith skills.

In the end, if WW3 happens, then the most important consideration to holding onto wealth is to be on the winning side at the end of it.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

an interesting take;

"Victor Niederhoffer years ago [wrote that] speculators play an important role in wartime because prices are signals. If speculators were to push the price of oil up in advance of a war, it would incentivize production and encourage people to economize.

"Yes, the speculators make money in the process. But they also make mistakes sometimes and lose money. That is the risk of being a speculator. But speculators will ensure that we have gold and wheat and bonds and stocks at reasonable prices during times of conflict—they always have.

"It is when markets are not permitted to function that we have acute shortages of goods we need. There are countless examples of this. The example of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve comes to mind. The Democrats had a good outcome in the midterm election as a result, but now we are going into what could be a massive war with only 17 days’ supply in reserve.

"All I have to say about that is the markets are undefeated against politicians.
- Jarad Dillian