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International Index Trading

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Potential for sharp rebounds here with a broadening low formed on the DOW, and disproportionate strength shown on the S&P.

Been a real s*it fight so far though.

There has been some really determined strength in there so far.

Very unusual to see the S&P leading the Dow though. Almost as if it doesn't know what it wants to do.

Don't be shy little man...

Here we go...
 
It's just been a matter of trading these breakdowns... again. DOW looked really weak into the highs again. In fact, the open was the high... looking back at it...

Have a neat H&S pattern target for the S&P futures for about 1394. Lining up with a pivot.

And a more messy H&S target for the DOW futures for about 12604.

I could do with another home run.

Lets see what the PPT can do...
 
Monthly chart of the S&P500

At the end of Dec. the Coppock indicator which is often used in determining bull and bear markets, is perilously close to signalling a bear market.

Unless there is a January rally I think it will be triggered end of this month


 

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I should have listened to that omen.

I got really cleaned up in the last 2 hours.

Started out great. But poor fills, putting pressure on my stops and exits really rooted me. Was also getting good at shorting bottoms and buying tops as well. Overused my best trades, and traded them outside my parameters.


Any advice criticism/ would be most welcome.

Still looking as though I'm trading with a postive expectancy by the looks of things at least.
 

these things happen Chops don't dwell on it or take it personally, follow your plan, if u feel a bit shaken up mentally reduce you position size or make a couple paper trades.

you'll be right!
 
Trade_It said:
these things happen Chops don't dwell on it or take it personally, follow your plan, if u feel a bit shaken up mentally reduce you position size or make a couple paper trades.

you'll be right!
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think I'll just take trades a few days in a row on the ones that weren't a problem, and paper trade the others until I get the process back in place, which were working very effectively. The patterns just seemded really odd to me last night. Really threw me. But I have a few obvious things looking back now, where I went wrong.

But more worringly, I got hyperfocused to the point where I exceeded my maximum daily drawdown limit. Which is a problem of psychological issues of mine, but has definitely never been a problem when it comes to trading.

But I guess this is all a part of the learning process.

Thanks for the words of encouragement, it is really appreciated.
 
Righto chops .

Hey mate at least you recognized the mistake and have learnt something , there's many that have yet to achieve that simple rule , 1st correct it , secondly don't repeat it if at all possible . T.I. is right cobber don't dwell on it , just go back analyse where it went wrong , then file it under experience and use it as a bolster in your knowledge wealth .

I've made some beauties myself mate , I bought just under $8K of shiraz from Heritage fine wines , the money never bought my purchase the company wound up 3 months later , I was offer 13 bottles out of the hundreds I had ordered and paid for , no recourse and no action by any authority during the Howard reign , let's see if Kev can't get some chains on the directors left .
 
Thanks for the support guys.

Was back on the horse tonight. Just using my most reliable trades to get the confidence back. Worked quite well, and I'm quite a way ahead.

Have just gone short based on the Citigroup rumours. It has a long way to fall if it gets some steam up...
 

also has a long way to rise tho Chops if Fed cuts big, and we have opex this week which will likely give US a lift. hope it works out OK
 
Edwood said:
also has a long way to rise tho Chops if Fed cuts big, and we have opex this week which will likely give US a lift. hope it works out OK
Click to expand...

Well, that's the benefit of only holding intraday isn't it? The long way to fall was in relation to the intraday chart. Still managed to get 30 ticks off it from the DOW, but thanks to strength in the S&P, it didn't roll over.

If someone could actually tell me where the strength in the S&P is coming from, that would be great, because all the charts they are showing seem to suggest we should be miles below where we are. I'm guessing ag, gold and energy stocks?
 

oh gotcha - wasn't sure if you were talking a swing or intra-day there Chops

how're the banking stocks looking? any change there? I haven't looked myself but given the beating they've taken they could bounce pretty sharpish
 
I think a techy is needed on that Citi chart , it looks like it getting some strength from somewhere , but I don't see any real support levels yet , except ones quite lower .

I'm not a techy , but it looks like false strength to me .
 
only looking at the chart - dyor etc but potential inverse h&s targeting 32.50


 
Edwood said:
only looking at the chart - dyor etc but potential inverse h&s targeting 32.50


Click to expand...
32ish looks pretty likely on that. Given the way C took the news last night, perhaps a hard rally there isn't out of the question. A hell of a lot of hedge fund shorts to be unwound there you would imagine. It could go quite a bit further.

I think I mentioned above that it was the S&P leading the DOW, not the other way around. A couple of times I've noticed the DOW rolling recently, with absolutely nothing underneath it, only to have the S&P hit a pivot and stop the lot. I probably need to do a bit of sector homework to find out which sector indices are the ones keeping the ship afloat. I'm sure someone like Wayne will know. Would be a lot easier to find out if we were over there etc. Tyranny of distance blah blah.

From the bulls perspective, and something I'm acutely aware of here, is the way the DOW is weighted, the more these dog stocks are getting absolute reemed, the less the indexes will come off. And same conversely I imagine. And the stocks getting pumped, are probably the ones that will be suffering worst over the long term, so how much lower can they go?.

Even a slight rally will give the R/R back to the long side.
 
I was looking at this chart , I don't see any reversal in the trend as yet though , only small spikes in the action . One life insurer is starting to buck the trend , but it's on someone elses index on the KLCI .
 

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yeah on its own I can't see anything there to suggest a turn - others who look at volume might? I tend to use divergence as a guide to potential set ups and wait for higher lows before entering longs, looking at the shorter timeframes for actual entries (1min, 5min)
 
Vol may be indicating that a base building exercise may be starting.. too early for mine yet, on a daily frame...
Cheers
.........Kauri
 

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