- Joined
- 3 November 2013
- Posts
- 1,566
- Reactions
- 2,769
You are correct. I'll edit the post. Why not contribute?
Thank you for your contribution, great insights.
- Joined
- 20 July 2021
- Posts
- 10,996
- Reactions
- 15,259
i could be wrong but i thought the deal was coal for rubles ( to 'unfriendly nations ' ) but since some EU nations are Green-tinged they were stopping the import of Russian coal , which will be interesting to watch in Germany because they have dirty BROWN coal , in quality ( and they are closing down the last 3 nuclear power plants )
You most have got bored in the stock threads to be reading here. Quick, set the record straight on inflation.
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,226
- Reactions
- 7,316
"We think a tremendous amount of the demand side depends on china".
Jeez, I should do this professionally or something.
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,226
- Reactions
- 7,316
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
- Joined
- 13 October 2004
- Posts
- 9,614
- Reactions
- 6,406
Correct. Idiotically is the correct word.
USA Monthly inflation came in at 0% and this hasn't even be mentioned. Hardly devastating as posted by one pundit with many agreeing comments.
Seems it doesn't fit a political narrative.
Last edited:
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,226
- Reactions
- 7,316
Yep, first month-on-month that hadn't increased in at least a year:
Markets are obviously thinking goldilocks/inflection point at the moment.
Of particular note is the ppi vs cpi spread - inputs dropping at a greater rate than sale prices = higher margins
This also keeps improving:
Too many bull**** artists in economics.
In reality it does not matter if the inflation "rate" stayed at 0% for the next decade if prices are still high relative to what people earn and people that work, pay tax and contribute to the economy can't afford fuel, food and a roof over their head.
- Joined
- 14 February 2005
- Posts
- 15,105
- Reactions
- 16,907
The basic situation at present to the best of my knowledge:
Non-OPEC countries are essentially flat out with production, there's nothing to spare at all. With price being what it is, anyone in a free market economy able to produce oil is doing so, there's simply no reason not to unless something breaks etc.
For the OPEC members that's where it gets interesting. The "normal" problem within OPEC is individual member countries exceeding quotas for reasons of financial self-interest whereas in 2022 the opposite problem has emerged, quite a few are really struggling to even meet the quota.
Bearing in mind that the quotas are intended to hold production down not up, that's a bit like saying you've got no chance of being fined for speeding since your car can't actually get to 100 km/h anyway.
From OPEC published data, April 2022 quota versus production. Figures are million barrels per day.
OPEC members subject to quotas:
Algeria = 1.00 (actual) | 1.002 (quota)
Angola = 0.27 | 0.309
Equatorial Guinea = 0.09 | 0.121
Gabon = 0.18 | 0.177
Iraq = 4.42 | 4.414
Kuwait = 2.64 | 2.666
Nigeria = 1.40 | 1.735
Saudi Arabia = 10.40 | 10.436
UAE = 3.01 | 3.006
OPEC members exempt from quotas:
Iran = 2.58
Libya = 0.90
Venezuela = 0.75
Non-OPEC but participate in the quota system voluntarily:
Azerbaijan = 0.58 | 0.682
Bahrain = 0.20 | 0.195
Brunei = 0.08 | 0.097
Kazakhstan = 1.33 | 1.621
Malaysia = 0.40 | 0.565
Oman = 0.84 | 0.837
Russia = 9.14 | 10.436
Sudan = 0.06 | 0.072
South Sudan = 0.15 | 0.123
Total all OPEC+ with quotas excluding exempt members = 37.35 (actual) | 39.944 (quota)
So there's a definite shortfall in meeting quota which from an historic perspective is abnormal, the traditional problem being the opposite. Of the lot there's only one that's significantly exceeding quota in % terms whilst a number are well short.
In Russia's case the reason is obvious but for most the general consensus is the reasons are a lack of functional production capacity. That is, either everything they have is running or whatever isn't running has some sort of physical problem. There's nothing to spare that's actually able to pump oil right now.
Saudi Arabia claims its present production capacity is 12 million barrels per day meanwhile a look at historic data suggests Iran's is likely about 3.9 million barrels per day. For the rest, it seems that there's probably a bit of spare capacity in some of them but overall it's not much, they're struggling to get production up, they're not struggling to keep it down.
Then we have the US releasing 1 million barrels per day of physical oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That by its very nature is a short term unsustainable oil "supply" that can't continue indefinitely, it's simply emptying out a storage facility.
Putting that together, there is uncertainty due to the nature of data and politicisation of some of it but my overall thought is that the only way to get global production up is to lift all restrictions on Iran. Beyond that, the Saudi's really only seem to have enough spare to offset the inevitable ending of SPR withdrawals but that's it, and there's not much spare anywhere else.
Physical oil supply is a real constraint on economic activity going forward is my thinking. Price may well come down, potentially a lot, but only so long as demand doesn't breach capacity which appears to be barely higher than present production.
There's a lot of uncertainty there, nobody on earth likely has every detail with confidence that it's correct, but that's my interpretation of the situation with oil.
The real energy problem however is LNG. Natural gas "as gas" is OK in some countries not exposed to global markets but for LNG being shipped, the market is beyond stuffed at the moment. It's actually cheaper to fire a boiler with jet fuel than it is to fire it with LNG right now and that says it all really. It's extremely expensive, if you can even get it.
Last edited:
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,448
- Reactions
- 18,109
And have not we been told that this US strategic reserve being depleted is also our Australian one?The basic situation at present to the best of my knowledge:
Non-OPEC countries are essentially flat out with production, there's nothing to spare at all. With price being what it is, anyone in a free market economy able to produce oil is doing so, there's simply no reason not to unless something breaks etc.
For the OPEC members that's where it gets interesting. The "normal" problem within OPEC is individual member countries exceeding quotas for reasons of financial self-interest whereas in 2022 the opposite problem has emerged, quite a few are really struggling to even meet the quota.
Bearing in mind that the quotas are intended to hold production down not up, that's a bit like saying you've got no chance of being fined for speeding since your car can't actually get to 100 km/h anyway.
From OPEC published data, April 2022 quota versus production. Figures are million barrels per day.
OPEC members subject to quotas:
Algeria = 1.00 (actual) | 1.002 (quota)
Angola = 0.27 | 0.309
Equatorial Guinea = 0.09 | 0.121
Gabon = 0.18 | 0.177
Iraq = 4.42 | 4.414
Kuwait = 2.64 | 2.666
Nigeria = 1.40 | 1.735
Saudi Arabia = 10.40 | 10.436
UAE = 3.01 | 3.006
OPEC members exempt from quotas:
Iran = 2.58
Libya = 0.90
Venezuela = 0.75
Non-OPEC but participate in the quota system voluntarily:
Azerbaijan = 0.58 | 0.682
Bahrain = 0.20 | 0.195
Brunei = 0.08 | 0.097
Kazakhstan = 1.33 | 1.621
Malaysia = 0.40 | 0.565
Oman = 0.84 | 0.837
Russia = 9.14 | 10.436
Sudan = 0.06 | 0.072
South Sudan = 0.15 | 0.123
Total all OPEC+ with quotas excluding exempt members = 37.35 (actual) | 39.944 (quota)
So there's a definite shortfall in meeting quota which from an historic perspective is abnormal, the traditional problem being the opposite. Of the lot there's only one that's significantly exceeding quota in % terms whilst a number are well short.
In Russia's case the reason is obvious but for most the general consensus is the reasons are a lack of functional production capacity. That is, either everything they have is running or whatever isn't running has some sort of physical problem. There's nothing to spare that's actually able to pump oil right now.
Saudi Arabia claims its present production capacity is 12 million barrels per day meanwhile a look at historic data suggests Iran's is likely about 3.9 million barrels per day. For the rest, it seems that there's probably a bit of spare capacity in some of them but overall it's not much, they're struggling to get production up, they're not struggling to keep it down.
Then we have the US releasing 1 million barrels per day of physical oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That by its very nature is a short term unsustainable oil "supply" that can't continue indefinitely, it's simply emptying out a storage facility.
Putting that together, there is uncertainty due to the nature of data and politicisation of some of it but my overall thought is that the only way to get global production up is to lift all restrictions on Iran. Beyond that, the Saudi's really only seem to have enough spare to offset the inevitable ending of SPR withdrawals but that's it, and there's not much spare anywhere else.
Physical oil supply is a real constraint on economic activity going forward is my thinking. Price may well come down, potentially a lot, but only so long as demand doesn't breach capacity which appears to be barely higher than present production.
There's a lot of uncertainty there, nobody on earth likely has every detail with confidence that it's correct, but that's my interpretation of the situation with oil.
The real energy problem however is LNG. Natural gas "as gas" is OK in some countries not exposed to global markets but for LNG being shipped, the market is beyond stuffed at the moment. It's actually cheaper to fire a boiler with jet fuel than it is to fire it with LNG right now and that says it all really. It's extremely expensive, if you can even get it.
That will simplify the US position if China ..or another black sawn..hits and we need our fuzl reserve within 30 days.
We won't need to wait 60 days for US tankers as our allotment will be gone?
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
- Joined
- 9 July 2004
- Posts
- 25,591
- Reactions
- 12,715
The 0% is largely the effect of the POO coming off, have a look at everything else.
What was that about political narratives?
Worth noting much of the effect of previous high oil prices haven't even filtered through yet. In no was is the genie back in the bottle.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
- Joined
- 9 July 2004
- Posts
- 25,591
- Reactions
- 12,715
- Joined
- 28 May 2004
- Posts
- 10,838
- Reactions
- 5,185
It is reasonable to expect that criticism of someone else's post should at least be accompanied by a response that outlines the basis upon which that criticism is based.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
- Joined
- 9 July 2004
- Posts
- 25,591
- Reactions
- 12,715
Some more detail from Mish:
mishtalk.com
Food at Home is Up 13.1 Percent From a Year Ago, Most Since February 1979
CPI Year-Over-Year Details CPI: 8.5 Percent CPI Less Food: 8.1 Percent CPI Food: 10.9 Percent CPI Food at Home: 13.1 Percent CPI Food and Beverage: 10.5
mishtalk.com
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,226
- Reactions
- 7,316
"Joe Blow and the time he tried to get into politics"
- Joined
- 6 September 2016
- Posts
- 1,260
- Reactions
- 1,596
You are going to need a bigger database to store that amount of text.
It's true you must first post to contribute but it is not necessarily true that posting is contributing
- Joined
- 28 May 2004
- Posts
- 10,838
- Reactions
- 5,185
On the Richter scale of internet conflicts, this ranks pretty low. But to be clear criticism should always be reasonable and explained, even if it is just a summary. And there is never any justification for insults because they add nothing to the discussion other than animosity.
It's pretty simple.
It's pretty simple.
Similar threads
