Inflation

[divs4ever]

Sri Lanka to apparently.


2022 and energy rationing (if not food rationing) in a time of plenty is a very real possibility and less people everywhere feel any need to get a job (over 10 million job vacancies in the US alone) - I feel we are somehow in an era of poor leadership.

as far as i can tell in Sri Lanka they have only reshuffled the deck chairs ( SO FAR )

now Russia and India could change that ( am surprised China hasn't already tried something .. like supporting a local business leader to grab popular support )

having been through the '70's ' job vacancies ' can be a deceptive metric and was frequently manipulated by politicians ( back then )

but let' see if the populists can finally topple the two-party paradigm ( across the world )

 

[divs4ever]

The
These trends made me leave and look for greener pastures and a safe life for my kids. no regrets.

i certainly have no regrets on never going back to travel Europe after that trip

good luck finding a safe place in the coming storm ( i suspect you will have to create your own )

 

[3 hound]

as far as i can tell in Sri Lanka they have only reshuffled the deck chairs ( SO FAR )

Dam, if that was just a reshuffle as much as I am a fan of a good horror flick I don't want see the footage of a regime change.

 

[qldfrog]

i certainly have no regrets on never going back to travel Europe after that trip

good luck finding a safe place in the coming storm ( i suspect you will have to create your own )

Been a quest for the last 3y.
Better half not keen on Panama option, so closing the hatch in suitable property here but not sure i will avoid the WEF misery..however remote i try to be.

 

[3 hound]

The
These trends made me leave and look for greener pastures and a safe life for my kids. no regrets.

It used to be guns, gold and getaway..... in 2022 there is nowhere to get away to.

Trust me, as a guy with a slightly paranoid prepper mentality I had prepacked get gone and never coming back bags. A rational contemporary assessment can only conclude there no there left to get gone to.

 

[qldfrog]

It used to be guns, gold and getaway..... in 2022 there is nowhere to get away to.

Trust me, as a guy with a slightly paranoid prepper mentality I had prepacked get gone and never coming back bags. A rational contemporary assessment can only conclude there no there left to get gone to.

Sadly I tend to agree.i would still consider Panama vs Australia but pockets of that country only.

 

[3 hound]

Sadly I tend to agree.i would still consider Panama vs Australia but pockets of that country only.

Don't know anything about Panama really but courtesy of the internet I have seen enough of what so many other South Americans are willing to do to each other if you are considered a rival I will never ever go near the place.... absolutely new tier of dark age style barbarism that the word evil can not begin to describe.

 

[qldfrog]

Sadly I tend to agree.i would still consider Panama vs Australia but pockets of that country only.

And still subject to inflation, usd collapse and potentially overrun by migrants walking North

 

[divs4ever]

Dam, if that was just a reshuffle as much as I am a fan of a good horror flick I don't want see the footage of a regime change.

i think the President became the Prime Minister and most members of parliament remain , but still in the grips of the IMF and WEF

given the previous racial unrest over there , it could get very messy if the peasants unite against the globalists/oligarchs ... will the middle class see the writing on the wall ??

was disappointed Russia and India didn't try harder to seize the opportunity .. Sri Lanka is beautifully located as a trading hub ( similar to Singapore )

 

[divs4ever]

And still subject to inflation, usd collapse and potentially overrun by migrants walking North

was thinking rural Bolivia looked nice .. fairly primitive but the locals look as tough as nails , the currency of the future is liable to be food and water

but my health isn't so good these days , so might have to dig in ( and be extremely annoying when necessary )

 

[divs4ever]

It used to be guns, gold and getaway..... in 2022 there is nowhere to get away to.

Trust me, as a guy with a slightly paranoid prepper mentality I had prepacked get gone and never coming back bags. A rational contemporary assessment can only conclude there no there left to get gone to.

well the obvious choices are no longer obvious ( Mexico City is complaining about migrant Californians , as an example ) but there still would be a few bolt-holes

 

[wayneL]

Probably preaching to the choir here, but a Friedman blast from the past...

 

[wayneL]

Addendum...

 

[3 hound]

Biden's new massive inflation reduction bill to direct billions toward renewables and social justice.....87 000 new IRS agents to be employed (in an economy with10 million existing job vacancies) - will be biggest gov department ever - a literal army of new tax agents going to war with workers.

 

[qldfrog]

Biden's new massive inflation reduction bill to direct billions toward renewables and social justice.....87 000 new IRS agents to be employed (in an economy with10 million existing job vacancies) - will be biggest gov department ever - a literal army of new tax agents going to war with workers.

But ..but ..you do not understand, these new tax agents will have a ripple economic benefit, a waterfall one..and the beauty of it,recession proof...
?

 

[3 hound]

But ..but ..you do not understand, these new tax agents will have a ripple economic benefit, a waterfall one..and the beauty of it,recession proof...
?

If I got this right the IRS alone is getting $80 billion funding boost - can someone fact check me on that. It sounds like fake news.

In its simplest terms the IRS will have to find $80 billion in new tax revenue just to pay for their own existence (not including their existing budget).

 

[waterbottle]

Seems like the bottom was late june - mid july....

US CPI numbers are out this week, but the worst may be over if oil is now below $90/barrel

 

[qldfrog]

Seems like the bottom was late june - mid july....

US CPI numbers are out this week, but the worst may be over if oil is now below $90/barrel

I am always reluctant to declare a botton less than a month after the facts.
European crisis is ahead,people in rhe northern hemisphere are in holiday spirits and traders have interns in charge.
The world was supposed to end when Greece was coughing a couole of years ago, now Germany may face blackout,at a merci of a nuke strike or a successful nato provided weapon strike on a power plant..no non it is the Russians bombing themselves ?
And that is just for Europe not mentioning a blockade of Taipei or other real black swan
You can still have inflation with people with no jobs and starving.i would somewhar bet that Sri Lanka inflation is crazy
Hard to call a low on the 10y chart imho in these conditions.
But yes, the type of growth related inflation may be over...

 

[Smurf1976]

Hard to call a low on the 10y chart imho in these conditions.

Just my personal view but we're coming up to the traditionally bad month of September and there's some pretty major potential events out there with Russia - Ukraine, China - Taiwan etc plus the overall energy supply issue with gas especially.

I'm really not at all sure the market's priced in a proper hard recession at this point, the market still seems to be thinking everything's fine.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

...plus the overall energy supply issue with gas especially.

I'm really not at all sure the market's priced in a proper hard recession at this point, the market still seems to be thinking everything's fine.

Europe is going to be in a pickle. A core component of modern life is radically different. Winter will be cold and expensive, the industrial sector will be hit hard, corporate earnings must be affected, lifestyles will be under intense pressure. The social contract may fray / rupture.

Industrial heartland Germany under stress:

And then there's France with it's EdF nuclear power... Not immune