Inflation

[Smurf1976]

What will the Europeans do during winter?

Shiver.

Literally so. Energy supply just isn't there in terms of volume.

LNG was extremely scarce on global markets before Russia invaded Ukraine. Hence the price shock in 2021.

Now we have the halting of gas supply from Russia which turns what was already a crisis into a nightmare.

Plus there's the major problems within the French nuclear industry at present.

Put that all together and some degree of demand reduction is unavoidable. It's not about consumers paying more to keep warm, it's about using less no matter what.

 

[over9k]

What will the Europeans do during winter?

Freeze. And/or pay through the nose for gas. They're currently building ports to bring yank gas in but that doesn't take 30 minutes. This is at least one reason why I'm bullish on gas.

Edit: lol, smurf made his post while I was writing mine. Same opening word. Brilliant.

 

[over9k]

HOWEVER:

 

[mullokintyre]

HOWEVER:

This guy speaks in simple enough terms, and in very basic mathematical terms, so even someone from the Greens would struggle to refute what he comes up with.
But what is the rest of the world doing?
Worrying about Nanci Pelosi's travel schedule and Albos holiday plans.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

This guy speaks in simple enough terms, and in very basic mathematical terms, so even someone from the Greens would struggle to refute what he comes up with.
But what is the rest of the world doing?
Worrying about Nanci Pelosi's travel schedule and Albos holiday plans.
Mick

Greens as the extremist left parties are in denials of reality, so not even a struggle?
Proof coming day after day.
Right now, the greens blame the current problem in France with too much nuclear....not kidding, after pushing successfully for the closure of plants and non building of major new plants...
Not a problem.....

 

[over9k]

U.S jobs numbers in, +528k vs +250k estimate. Tech slaughtered, NDX futures down 1% within about 2 minutes, oil screaming, bonds nuts.

Another big fed move a virtual certainty now:

 

[noirua]

Australia’s inflation rate has tended to lag most of its trading partners. New Zealand clocked up a 7.3% pace in the June quarter – also a 32-year high – while the UK and the US posted 9%-plus rates of inflation in June, and the Eurozone notched an annual rate 8.6% for the same month.

Inflation Rate - Countries - List | Australia

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Inflation Rate. This page provides values for Inflation Rate reported in several countries part of Australia. The table has current values for Inflation Rate, previous...

tradingeconomics.com

Inflation Rate - Countries - List

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Inflation Rate. This page provides values for Inflation Rate reported in several countries. The table has current values for Inflation Rate, previous releases, historical...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[moXJO]

U.S jobs numbers in, +528k vs +250k estimate. Tech slaughtered, NDX futures down 1% within about 2 minutes, oil screaming, bonds nuts.

Another big fed move a virtual certainty now:

View attachment 145000

US needs to sack up and rate bomb the inflation. It will start to spiral if they keep soft balling for the midterms.

To many moving parts across the world. It will blow up if too many go off in tandem.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile:

 

[bluekelah]

What do you think the market will do if Republicans take back senate?

I can't remember off the top of my head how it's gone historically.

doesnt really matter, when Trump was elected the FED went ahead and hiked rates 4 times to 2.5% in 2018, coz it looked like economy was doing well with low unemployment but then markets went down and they started to backpedal in 2019 which caused another boom in stocks. So republican or not, market is dependent on FED rate policy/liquidity pump

 

[Smurf1976]

US needs to sack up and rate bomb the inflation. It will start to spiral if they keep soft balling for the midterms.

Just my observation but there seems to be an awful lot of money around at the moment.

I mean things like books signed by the author being sold for an outright fortune, almost all of which is being paid for the signature not the book (since you could buy the unsigned book for a relative pittance). Then there's USD 5k concert tickets and so on. Stuff like that. Keep your eyes open and there's plenty of examples of non-essential things being sold for prices that even in the recent past would've been considered outright ridiculous.

A decent portion of the population are perhaps struggling but clearly there are quite a few who've got money to spend for the sake of spending it.

Perhaps just my interpretation but I'm seeing that as indicative of too much money sloshing around looking for somewhere, anywhere, to go.

 

[divs4ever]

What will the Europeans do during winter?

burn furniture , and hoard used blankets ( since many modern blankets use fossil fuels in the manufacture ) hopefully the governments will put out flyers and help the public start their fires

 

[divs4ever]

Just my observation but there seems to be an awful lot of money around at the moment.

I mean things like books signed by the author being sold for an outright fortune, almost all of which is being paid for the signature not the book (since you could buy the unsigned book for a relative pittance). Then there's USD 5k concert tickets and so on. Stuff like that. Keep your eyes open and there's plenty of examples of non-essential things being sold for prices that even in the recent past would've been considered outright ridiculous.

A decent portion of the population are perhaps struggling but clearly there are quite a few who've got money to spend for the sake of spending it.

Perhaps just my interpretation but I'm seeing that as indicative of too much money sloshing around looking for somewhere, anywhere, to go.

money YES , productivity , NO !

and just as sanity seems to be slipping badly

 

[divs4ever]

Shiver.

Literally so. Energy supply just isn't there in terms of volume.

LNG was extremely scarce on global markets before Russia invaded Ukraine. Hence the price shock in 2021.

Now we have the halting of gas supply from Russia which turns what was already a crisis into a nightmare.

Plus there's the major problems within the French nuclear industry at present.

Put that all together and some degree of demand reduction is unavoidable. It's not about consumers paying more to keep warm, it's about using less no matter what.

at least France still has nuclear power plants ( Germany still seems intent in closing all their plants down )

 

[qldfrog]

at least France still has nuclear power plants ( Germany still seems intent in closing all their plants down )

Hall closed due to maintenance, regulation cf water preservation and also a few..key big ones ..closed as Green bargaining chip for keeping the last few presidencies in power
From 2018..ages ago

France to close no more nuclear reactors during Macron mandate

The French government will not close any of its nuclear reactors besides Fessenheim before the end of the current presidential mandate which runs until 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

For a change, Macron stuck to his words??
Obviously, the notion of sharing these few GW with neighbours..aka Germany while freezing and taking cold showers and doubled bills is wearing thin in France, Spain,Italy....
So not loking good and tge recent fall in oul orice is just a glitch .the trend remains.. Higher and Higher

 

[divs4ever]

but unlike others France has a dramatic way of changing governments

i guess time will tell , but i will stick with my opinion that the EU is a basket case ( and have held that opinion for around ten years )

( i was there in 1990 and noticed some intriguing trends even back then )

 

[waterbottle]

Big gain in US jobs overnight. Rumours of a 75bps hike in September. Odds now at 70% compared to 34% prior to the data release.

 

[3 hound]

but unlike others France has a dramatic way of changing governments

Sri Lanka to apparently.


2022 and energy rationing (if not food rationing) in a time of plenty is a very real possibility and less people everywhere feel any need to get a job (over 10 million job vacancies in the US alone) - I feel we are somehow in an era of poor leadership.

 

[mullokintyre]

Big gain in US jobs overnight. Rumours of a 75bps hike in September. Odds now at 70% compared to 34% prior to the data release.

But not only did July blow away expectations, but both previous months were revised higher: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 2,000, from +384,000 to +386,000, and the change for June was revised up by 26,000, from +372,000 to +398,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 28,000 higher than previously reported.
The "surprising" gain in Jobs overnight seems to fly in the face of the data out the previous day.
This Bloomberg headline from July 21st says it all

US Jobless Claims Hit Eight-Month High as Labor Market Cools​

• Initial unemployment claims increased last week to 251,000
• Continuing claims up 51,000, largest advance since November

As can be seen below, the inital jobless claims have been going up since march.
The kicker is the continuing employment in the bottom has rolled over and is starting to rise as seen in the bottom of the graph below..
Prior to that, one could argue that those losing/quitting their jobs were going straight back into another one, but the stats below suggest that scenario is becoming more and more difficult to sustain.


So how do we reconcile the fact that unemployment claims, both new and continuing, are heading up, but record job creation and new hiring is ongoing?
Part of it can be explained by more and more people having multiple jobs. Another factor is people who have taken and quit more than one job in the survey period. Another factor might be that the figures are Bullsh*t and have been massaged to suit the desired outcome.
Other factors such as the Californian law known as AB% that severely limits the ability of workers in California to be contractors,, and many have been shifted to employees from being on a contract basis.
Or it could be a combination of all of the above.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

The

but unlike others France has a dramatic way of changing governments

i guess time will tell , but i will stick with my opinion that the EU is a basket case ( and have held that opinion for around ten years )

( i was there in 1990 and noticed some intriguing trends even back then )

These trends made me leave and look for greener pastures and a safe life for my kids. no regrets.