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Inflation

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The issue for the unfortunate citizens of the world is that the transitoriness or otherwise of inflation is immaterial.
They have to pay the higher prices for the everyday survival needs.
Thrse are mere semantics spoken by the elites who can overcome these hurdles.
Mick
 
The Eurozone’s current situation is a great example of this. While EUR/USD hitting and breaking parity is mostly just symbolic, the Euro’s immense deprecation over the last few months carries serious economic implications.

Most notably, as you already mentioned, rising import costs which will add to inflation. This will likely force the ECB into a relatively aggressive tightening cycle, albeit at the cost of a potential recession.

As for Australia, yesterday’s blowout labour market data does signal a relatively strong position for the economy, which therefore should be able to withstand further rate hikes. Of course, all trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see if this can help AUD rebound over the coming weeks.
 
Aka stagflation.
 
over9k said:
Aka stagflation.
Click to expand...

Not sure that you can call it the beginning of stagflation when unemployment is currently very low - In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment.
 


A 1% hike could be interesting.

Cheers
J
 
China GDP down 2.2% for the quarter... The only time it was worse was during the beginning of COVID lockdown in Jan 2020 when they hit -5%.

If China's GDP is this low, then what has the US been consuming... RIP retail
 
waterbottle said:
China GDP down 2.2% for the quarter... The only time it was worse was during the beginning of COVID lockdown in Jan 2020 when they hit -5%.

If China's GDP is this low, then what has the US been consuming... RIP retail
Click to expand...
Food, and lots of it.
Big Macs, Really Big Macs, and F%$#$ing enormous Macs.
Mick
 
waterbottle said:
China GDP down 2.2% for the quarter... The only time it was worse was during the beginning of COVID lockdown in Jan 2020 when they hit -5%.

If China's GDP is this low, then what has the US been consuming... RIP retail
Click to expand...
Pent up demand for travel etc. Simple seasonality with it being summer up there too so retail gets a double fisting after the whole world bought *everything* last year/the year before.
 
waterbottle said:
China GDP down 2.2% for the quarter... The only time it was worse was during the beginning of COVID lockdown in Jan 2020 when they hit -5%.

If China's GDP is this low, then what has the US been consuming... RIP retail
Click to expand...
I would be more worried on the effect of this on our own mineral exports...
We can go past a US recession/depression a la GFC..but only if China pulls us.
If China does not,we are toast..well we have the Olympics and watermelon/teal in power so we are saved.
 
actually it doesn't sound like the watermelon/teal is so China-tolerant either , is that buttered toast or burned to charcoal

BTW the Olympics will be a rainbow albatross by then anyway ( last i heard Brisbane was the only nominee )
 
Update on the shipping situation: Russia is now insuring the ships themselves so that other countries not participating in the sanctions can still get their oil.

So yeah, sovereign indemnification.
 
divs4ever said:
you would almost wonder when they start sinking Russian tankers and freighters .. just to help the sanctions along
Click to expand...
That would probably contribute even more to global inflation, not to mention risk of starting a proper war.

Time is running out for Europe as "winter is coming" ;D Them folks will be back to burning firewood for heat in winter.
 
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