Inflation

[divs4ever]

the financial desperadoes NEED a war , there is no acceptable way to financially engineer their way out this time

it will either be dozens of civil wars , or a major international one ( to hide the massive wealth transfers )

That would probably contribute even more to global inflation, not to mention risk of starting a proper war.

Time is running out for Europe as "winter is coming" ;D Them folks will be back to burning firewood for heat in winter.

they could always heat Sri Lankan style , those mansions look pretty comfy ( probably heated pools as well , useful for mass bathing )

 

[bluekelah]

the financial desperadoes NEED a war , there is no acceptable way to financially engineer their way out this time

it will either be dozens of civil wars , or a major international one ( to hide the massive wealth transfers )


they could always heat Sri Lankan style , those mansions look pretty comfy ( probably heated pools as well , useful for mass bathing )

I think Biden and democrats are too busy doing damage control for their coming election this year to start a war. My prediction is that FED will pivot eventually, probably just before elections as there is no way Biden wins with inflation AND recession, and Powell has to somehow help him out as much as the FED can. Then USA goes into a currency depreciation/negative rates environment ala Japanese style.

That's when gold will do a 5x or 10x (assuming people still have faith in USD and want to trade commodities in USD)

With US bond yields now at 3% and US Gov Debt over 30trillion thats already 900billion in interest. Tag on budget deficit of likely 1trillion++ this year, not looking good for team USA.

 

[qldfrog]

I think Biden and democrats are too busy doing damage control for their coming election this year to start a war. My prediction is that FED will pivot eventually, probably just before elections as there is no way Biden wins with inflation AND recession, and Powell has to somehow help him out as much as the FED can. Then USA goes into a currency depreciation/negative rates environment ala Japanese style.

That's when gold will do a 5x or 10x (assuming people still have faith in USD and want to trade commodities in USD)

With US bond yields now at 3% and US Gov Debt over 30trillion thats already 900billion in interest. Tag on budget deficit of likely 1trillion++ this year, not looking good for team USA.

Hope you are right cf war, agree with your scenario but the Biden cohort is facing a few internal scandals it need to hide quickly.
learnt about that one:

Nancy Pelosi’s husband buys millions in computer-chip stocks before big subsidy vote - PanamaTimes

Paul Pelosi purchased 20,000 shares of Nvidia, a top semiconductor company, worth between $1 million and $5 million, on June 17, the Daily Caller reported.

panatimes.com

So Biden himself a zombie, his son a ukraine bribes,crack and whore addict, the top democrats shown as rotten..a lot to hide,nothing like triggering a nice war..in Europe.
Tactical nuke around Ukraine is my bet, not sure it will help inflation but will allow more emergency measures.. legal framework is already in place and if nukes fly,democrats are reelected
Hopefully i am wrong

 

[over9k]

 

[over9k]

With russia KO'd now, libya KO'd a decade ago, and venezuela KO'd ~7 years ago, there's really only one other place the rest can come from, and that's USA.

 

[over9k]

I think Biden and democrats are too busy doing damage control for their coming election this year to start a war. My prediction is that FED will pivot eventually, probably just before elections as there is no way Biden wins with inflation AND recession, and Powell has to somehow help him out as much as the FED can. Then USA goes into a currency depreciation/negative rates environment ala Japanese style.

That's when gold will do a 5x or 10x (assuming people still have faith in USD and want to trade commodities in USD)

With US bond yields now at 3% and US Gov Debt over 30trillion thats already 900billion in interest. Tag on budget deficit of likely 1trillion++ this year, not looking good for team USA.

They don't need to. Biden can block/curtail U.S oil shipments any time he likes.

They're currently trying the "companies need to up supply/drill" angle but because the oil companies own so much of the media, it's not playing well.

The fact that biden is practically a corpse in a suit (senile/decrepit) doesn't help either. You need only look at how stiff his body language is whenever he does, well, anything, to see just how frail he really is under there.

Fact is that both sides of politics are owned by the media which is owned by oil companies, wall st et al and so *nothing* is going to happen until that particular cartel is broken (and it isn't going to be broken). Why do you think biden just did a big trip to the middle east rather than just go nuclear on the american oil companies? Their money/donations and ownership of the media there means they have him by the balls.

So if you can't beat them, join them.



The next step with russian sanctions would be a naval blockade, not an actual sinking of the tankers, and that really would kick off a shooting war. It would essentially be all the countries participating in the sanctions vs all the countries not doing so. Russians trying to sell their oil along with the indians, chinese etc trying to buy it on one side and everyone else trying to stop said transaction on the other.

But doing so would be the height of stupidity - a single afternoon of airstrikes (or even giving ukrainian partisans a decent supply of satchel charges) blowing the pipelines themselves and they'd be unable to actually load the tankers for months anyways.

 

[mullokintyre]

"If nordstream doesn't come back online, rationing is a certainty".

Well, according to Zero hedge , it has happened ( Nordstream not coming back online I mean).

Already days before the July 22 European "Doomsday" when the scheduled Russian 10-day maintenance of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany is slated to end - but which was thrown into deep doubt given Gazprom recently said it can no longer guarantee its "good functioning" due to crucial turbines being previously held up in Canada related to sanctions - the Russian energy giant has declared Force Majeure to one major European customer.

Simply put, Gazprom declared extraordinary and extreme circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to this customer, thus the gas will stop flowing indefinitely, as Reuters reports in a breaking development Monday, "Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters." The letter is dated July 14. "It said the force majeure measure, a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control, was effective from deliveries starting from June 14," writes Reuters.

Things are getting a little warmer.
Mick

 

[CityIndex]

RBA Minutes suggest that the central bank will continue tightening monetary policy in an effort to control inflation, but the size (and timing) of future rate hikes will continue to depend on incoming data.

It will be interesting to see how the economic outlook develops in-line with data released ahead of the next interest rate decision, and whether or not it opens the door for expectations of a more hawkish RBA.

 

[qldfrog]

Well, according to Zero hedge , it has happened ( Nordstream not coming back online I mean).

Things are getting a little warmer.
Mick

Maybe Europeans will stop crying global warming left and right..and welcome it this winter

 

[divs4ever]

the Ice Queen is coming ( for those that follow their Norse mythology )

of course others that follow climate cycles would call it an Ice Age

i suppose it is rather fitting that we are cultivating a culture of snowflakes

 

[3 hound]

So Biden himself a zombie, his son a ukraine bribes,crack and whore addict,

Cocaine in The Ukraine, shows you how sick sociopath like the Biden's are...for Cypress Hill fans.

 

[qldfrog]

Cocaine in The Ukraine, shows you how sick sociopath like the Biden's are...for Cypress Hill fans.

Stop it @3 hound ! you conspiratist, and what next? Biden pushed for the ukraine war?
Or covid jab did not stop covid?
BS, and i can prove it: I never ever read that on the ABC fact checkers
Crude irony intended ?
Now, what's the link with inflation?
Just an engineered war and energy shortage with no end in view.
No travel, no car, no wealth, no freedom and next no life...
But Sri Lanka did not go to plan.
I repeat myself :
In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”

 

[3 hound]

Stop it @3 hound ! you conspiratist, and what next? Biden pushed for the ukraine war?
Or covid jab did not stop covid?
BS, and i can prove it: I never ever read that on the ABC fact checkers
Crude irony intended ?
Now, what's the link with inflation?
Just an engineered war and energy shortage with no end in view.
No travel, no car, no wealth, no freedom and next no life...
But Sri Lanka did not go to plan.
I repeat myself :
In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”

If China Joe's polls continue to nose dive Hunters laptop will all of a sudden go from the msn calling it Russian disinformation and bleaching it from the entire internet to calling it cold hard fact and saturating it on all communication media.

We can all look to the people of Sri Lanka amd the Dutch farmers for strength and guidance.


" From the 1970s to 2020, with the help of synthetic fertilizers, Sri Lanka had become self-sufficient in rice production. However, Sri Lanka’s government fell under the spell of the “green” revolution promoted by Western liberal elites. In a now-deleted article published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), then Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe vowed to make his country “rich by 2025,” partially by adopting WEF-sponsored “climate change” initiatives.

Advised by the Rockefeller Foundation, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised to transition the nation’s agriculture industry to organic farming within ten years. In April 2021, he banned “the importation and use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides and order[ed] the country’s 2 million farmers to go organic,”

 

[divs4ever]

If China Joe's polls continue to nose dive Hunters laptop will all of a sudden go from the msn calling it Russian disinformation and bleaching it from the entire internet to calling it cold hard fact and saturating it on all communication media.

We can all look to the people of Sri Lanka amd the Dutch farmers for strength and guidance.


" From the 1970s to 2020, with the help of synthetic fertilizers, Sri Lanka had become self-sufficient in rice production. However, Sri Lanka’s government fell under the spell of the “green” revolution promoted by Western liberal elites. In a now-deleted article published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), then Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe vowed to make his country “rich by 2025,” partially by adopting WEF-sponsored “climate change” initiatives.

Advised by the Rockefeller Foundation, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised to transition the nation’s agriculture industry to organic farming within ten years. In April 2021, he banned “the importation and use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides and order[ed] the country’s 2 million farmers to go organic,”

it is ANOTHER Hunter Biden laptop the Russians are sorting through , it has been most helpful in finding which 'medical facilities ' to raid , and various other storage places

the question is how many more Hunter Biden devices are circulating in the various government agencies ( of various nations )

and Sri Lanka might indeed be rich by 2025 , several politicians and business leaders seem to have moved overseas .. and they have a wonderful palace to renovate into a hotel and casino , maybe the president's barbecued cars can be acclaimed 'folk art' and a centre-piece in the casino entrance ( they would have to at least rank equally to Hunter Biden's art work )

 

[over9k]

View attachment 144145

PRECISELY:

View attachment 144144View attachment 144143

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2022

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT


Fact is that plenty of the printed cash was banked over the past couple of years and it's nowhere near running out yet. Don't get me wrong, more and more of it is having to be spent to do stuff (see: oil prices) so its purchasing power is diminishing, but there's still a fckton of it to go.

 

[bluekelah]

Worth a watch, Professor Henke, The only economist who correctly predicted last year that inflation would get to 9% this year. Forecast for coming year is for inflation to moderate to around 6-7% (which is still super high) according to his monetary model. It's all about the money supply!





Looks like one final dead cat bounce this week, before more correction in markets next thursday as technical recession GDP growth figures gets released, together with a 0.75% or maybe even 1% rate rise out of fed FOMC on tuesday/wednesday.

 

[3 hound]

Worth a watch, Professor Henke, The only economist who correctly predicted last year that inflation would get to 9% this year. Forecast for coming year is for inflation to moderate to around 6-7% (which is still super high) according to his monetary model. It's all about the money supply!





Looks like one final dead cat bounce this week, before more correction in markets next thursday as technical recession GDP growth figures gets released, together with a 0.75% or maybe even 1% rate rise out of fed FOMC on tuesday/wednesday.

Watched it, did you see the high school math mistake he did live during the interview??

embarrassing, Kitco is great but they need to edit it out or explain what's going on.

 

[over9k]

Still not keen on FNGU but kicking myself for missing SOXL, seems obvious in hindsight now.

At least I got the others.

 

[over9k]

Alright so it looks like the 14th was the bottom for, well, almost everything. Even growth plays have run hard since.

However:



Looks like tech/growth might be in for another massacre tomorrow (tomorrow will be telling).

I might sell some nrgu & grab some soxl if so.

 

[waterbottle]

We may have hit the bottom in hindsight, particularly if the market thinks the main driver of inflation (oil prices) has been beaten (looks like it may have been).

That may change next week if the Federal reserve comes out with a surprise 100bps hike. It wouldn't be the only central bank to have surprised...