Inflation

[over9k]

Recession see-saw. Basically just hit a point where things were so expensive that price and interest rate spikes became so great they were going to offset the price increase and send us plummeting back in the other direction.

So essentially going from the point of prices being "high" to being "unaffordably high" and thus sales (economies) fall off a cliff, which then brings prices back down to affordable levels, which brings sales back, and around & around we go...

 

[waterbottle]

the published opinions are about a recession ( as if we haven't been in one for months )

i will be watching gold ( and selected gold miners ) today

It's only been the past 2-3 months that economists have been agreeing that a recession will be probable. Until recently the consensus was a soft landing.

Case in point

https://www.abnamro.com/research/en/our-research/a-more-rapid-cooling-in-us-consumption

 

[mullokintyre]

it highlights something I have suspected for years, namely that the so called "experts" are no better than the average punter at picking what is going to happen.
Every now and then one of them flukes it and they become an uber guru.
Mick

 

[3 hound]

it highlights something I have suspected for years, namely that the so called "experts" are no better than the average punter at picking what is going to happen.
Every now and then one of them flukes it and they become an uber guru.
Mick

Economics is the science of predicting what's already happened.

I sometimes wonder if the professional analysts that have the public ear are more about manipulation than information and they themselves do the exact opposite of what they tell others to do.

 

[qldfrog]

Economics is the science of predicting what's already happened.

I sometimes wonder if the professional analysts that have the public ear are more about manipulation than information and they themselves do the exact opposite of what they tell others to do.

Manipulation is indeed part of the explanation a while back, the RBA was announcing that rate would not rise until..xxx
Has anyone even toyed with the idea it would be true?
It was just a way to reassure population/populace/toothless so that a further push in building, loans, etc can resume.
I can not even imagine that it would be anything else but manipulation.
And i actually think it is fair .just another tool to direct the economy.

 

[3 hound]

Manipulation is indeed part of the explanation a while back, the RBA was announcing that rate would not rise until..xxx
Has anyone even toyed with the idea it would be true?
It was just a way to reassure population/populace/toothless so that a further push in building, loans, etc can resume.
I can not even imagine that it would be anything else but manipulation.
And i actually think it is fair .just another tool to direct the economy.

Fair enough to direct the economy but then they could just say on this date the rates will be this so people could plan their expenses.

 

[divs4ever]

Manipulation is indeed part of the explanation a while back, the RBA was announcing that rate would not rise until..xxx
Has anyone even toyed with the idea it would be true?
It was just a way to reassure population/populace/toothless so that a further push in building, loans, etc can resume.
I can not even imagine that it would be anything else but manipulation.
And i actually think it is fair .just another tool to direct the economy.

well 'jaw-boning ' seems to be an accepted tool of the US Fed ( and apparently others )

mind you if WE 'jaw-boned ' a stock here ( or another stock forum ) we could face all sorts of trouble

i guess standards still come in double

 

[divs4ever]

THIS IS WHEN THE FED WILL PIVOT - NOT GOOD​

 

[waterbottle]

China has again locked down several cities following covid outbreaks. This would explain the drop in crude oil... Will still likely be pro inflationary if supply issues aren't alleviated

China imposes Covid lockdown in Xi’an after handful of cases

Zero-Covid strategy shuts down north-central city of 13 million following 18 reported cases of Omicron

www.theguardian.com

 

[over9k]

China has again locked down several cities following covid outbreaks. This would explain the drop in crude oil... Will still likely be pro inflationary if supply issues aren't alleviated

China imposes Covid lockdown in Xi’an after handful of cases

Zero-Covid strategy shuts down north-central city of 13 million following 18 reported cases of Omicron

www.theguardian.com

Worth 4 minutes & 38 seconds of your time.

 

[over9k]

Lol. Going well!

 

[waterbottle]

Worth 4 minutes & 38 seconds of your time.

Wow. What the f....

Lockdown until 2026?!
Thats insane. Xi jinping will surely face a challenge at the national congress if that's their plan.
I totally agree with what this means for manufacturing - we're going to restart it in he western world - but not sure who we were meant to be competing against... No one in the west has made an effort to restart manufacturing.

 

[frugal.rock]

Quite a few multi nationals/ subsidiaries have already reduced or removed operations in China, and relocated to SE Asia and India.

To much sovereign risk in China now due to political interference.

If they insist on 5 year zero covid policy (dumbasses), their only hope is from supplying the Russia vacuum, from multi-nats leaving there in droves.

 

[over9k]

No one in the west has made an effort to restart manufacturing.

Exactly!

A few factories, chip plants etc have been given the go-ahead but they're going to be YEARS until operational so in the meantime, this is the **** sandwich we all have to eat.

 

[waterbottle]

Exactly!

A few factories, chip plants etc have been given the go-ahead but they're going to be YEARS until operational so in the meantime, this is the **** sandwich we all have to eat.

If this is true and China doesn't change soon, we are being set up for a long term inflationary/manufacturing growth cycle particularly given the resource nationalism in recent years.

 

[Smurf1976]

Quite a few multi nationals/ subsidiaries have already reduced or removed operations in China, and relocated to SE Asia and India.

I'm aware that some companies in Australia are also considering "Made in China" as a negative when it comes to evaluating tenders.

It doesn't outright preclude the tender being considered or even winning, but it's a negative mark against it.

The reason's purely business not political. China being considered more risky in terms of actually supplying the goods.

Anyone tendering with goods already in their warehouse, or who is themselves the manufacturer and is located in Australia, is marked up due to lower risk so far as physical supply is concerned. Yes the warehouse could burn down, that's not impossible, but it's far less likely than a disruption from an overseas supplier at least that's the view being taken.

At least some companies are willing to pay a premium if it gets them reliability of supply.

 

[3 hound]

I'm aware that some companies in Australia are also considering "Made in China" as a negative when it comes to evaluating tenders.

It doesn't outright preclude the tender being considered or even winning, but it's a negative mark against it.

The reason's purely business not political. China being considered more risky in terms of actually supplying the goods.

Anyone tendering with goods already in their warehouse, or who is themselves the manufacturer and is located in Australia, is marked up due to lower risk so far as physical supply is concerned. Yes the warehouse could burn down, that's not impossible, but it's far less likely than a disruption from an overseas supplier at least that's the view being taken.

At least some companies are willing to pay a premium if it gets them reliability of supply.

Yet nearly every one of my personal friends still buy all their electronic consumer goods from China. They suffer long wait times, faulty products,. clone products, no user documentation, weird one of components, but it's still currently works out much cheaper in the long run especially if you are prepared to tinker a bit.

The premium you pay for Aussie goods is a measure of laziness in the buyer.

 

[frugal.rock]

At least some companies are willing to pay a premium if it gets them reliability of supply.

Bunnings / WES haven't had their self branded advertising golf umbrellas available for 3 months now, and staff can't say when "the ship is coming in".

The reason's purely business not political.

Business for the West yes, but it's internal politics in China causing the problems.
Wasn't implying that the whole internal politics scenario is intended to cause disruption to the West, however, I wouldn't strategically remove it from the table either... ?

 

[over9k]

If this is true and China doesn't change soon, we are being set up for a long term inflationary/manufacturing growth cycle particularly given the resource nationalism in recent years.

 

[qldfrog]

Wow. What the f....

Lockdown until 2026?!
Thats insane. Xi jinping will surely face a challenge at the national congress if that's their plan.
I totally agree with what this means for manufacturing - we're going to restart it in he western world - but not sure who we were meant to be competing against... No one in the west has made an effort to restart manufacturing.

Part of economic war China is pushing on the West, and we are actually self destroying also by playing not only the covid lockdowns too but also these sanctions..working like a dream.
We should trial our leaders for treason and work for the enemy..but no i am just following conspiracy, no one is dying from jabs, our covid measures saved lives and the Ukraine sanction are working....