Inflation

[mullokintyre]

Unless we have some tech innovation that leads to improved goods production I.e. robotics, and we provide a universal basic income, the world will still need a low cost producer I.e. China.

The problem with that senario is that no matter who or what makes the "things", there has to be a demand for the "things".
If the populace has no money, they aint buyin.
With robotics doing all the nasty work, who will be working outside the UBI system to pay the taxes that provide the UBI?
And apart from say Elon Musk, why would anyone work if there is a UBI?
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

Deglobalisation and protectionism in an ageing world with fewer jobs is a recipe for either hyperinflation or rebellion.

No government would jeopardise their own future by leading their citizens down a path where goods are increasingly scarce and harder to obtain.

So if you think that is the path we are heading down, then you really need to explain what the future holds for governments.

Unless we have some tech innovation that leads to improved goods production I.e. robotics, and we provide a universal basic income, the world will still need a low cost producer I.e. China.

Robotics will help improve productivity, like it did for vehicle manufacturing, farming, mining and so on. Robotics has been used to improve production and work safety for a lot longer than most realise.

“A machine capable of carrying out a complex series of actions automatically, especially one programmable by a computer.”

The next phase will be humanoid robotics, and they are already being tested. We will see production and sales first to large corporations and business, and then to the wealthy.

How Are Humanoid Robots Being Used?

• Hospitality: Some humanoid robots, like Kime, are pouring and serving customer drinks and snacks at self-contained kiosks in Spain. Some are even working as hotel concierges and in other customer-facing roles.
• Education: Humanoid Robots NAO and Pepper are working with students in educational settings, creating content and teaching programming.
• Healthcare: Other humanoid robots are providing services in healthcare settings, like communicating patient information and measuring vital signs.

But before companies can fully unleash their humanoid robots, pilot programs testing their ability to safely work and collaborate alongside human counterparts on factory floors, warehouses and elsewhere will have to be conducted.

 

[qldfrog]

The problem with that senario is that no matter who or what makes the "things", there has to be a demand for the "things".
If the populace has no money, they aint buyin.
With robotics doing all the nasty work, who will be working outside the UBI system to pay the taxes that provide the UBI?
And apart from say Elon Musk, why would anyone work if there is a UBI?
Mick

The question remains indeed, what will mankind do..unless we are to compete with the robots,?
Nowadays, it is cheaper to use some Chinese Indian Pakistani or some African cohorts than installing a conveyor belt
Is that what it will become for us, all but the mega richs?

 

[Smurf1976]

So if you think that is the path we are heading down

As I see it, it is the path we're heading down and have been for some time.

Rationally no government would have allowed the housing situation to develop. A situation where even if prices crashed 50% overnight, they'd still be insanely high by historic measures.

Nobody would've believed it a generation ago that such a situation would occur. There'd be riots in the streets by now surely.

But here we are.

Go back two generations and nobody would've believed government would've allowed raw mineral exports "dig and ship" and the demise of Australian manufacturing. Because again, there'd be riots in the street over that, the unions would refuse to load the ships surely.

But here we are.

The seemingly impossible happens simply due to the turnover of the population. For a random example illustrating the concept, only about 40% of the present Australian population were alive and living in Australia when Hawke ended his time as PM. Only a third were here for the start of Kylie Minogue's music career. Just over 20% of the present national population were in Australia for Cyclone Tracy, the Tasman Bridge disaster and the dismissal of the Whitlam government. Those figures would be even lower if children too young to remember are taken out.

Time marches on, collective knowledge fades and attitudes shift relatively quickly. Go back just one generation and there's plenty of things that were taken for granted that are gone or considered unacceptable today. Likewise in the opposite direction, more than a few things that are seen as normal today were unacceptable or fringe ideas not that long ago.

Even within a political ideology that is so. Progressive and conservative politics are both very different things to just one generation ago and on many issues they've switched sides.

There's also the question of what alternative is there? The present model of the West buying just about everything from China and having less and less to sell to them can't be sustainable surely. At some point the Chinese will expect to be paid for those goods in something of actual value and at that point the game's up. Now add in the geopolitical concerns and there's my reasoning, the game's up and we're now in a slow transition phase.

Fully acknowledged I could be wrong, this is talking about the future so uncertainty exists, but that's how I see it.

 

[divs4ever]

Robotics will help improve productivity, like it did for vehicle manufacturing, farming, mining and so on. Robotics has been used to improve production and work safety for a lot longer than most realise.

“A machine capable of carrying out a complex series of actions automatically, especially one programmable by a computer.”

The next phase will be humanoid robotics, and they are already being tested. We will see production and sales first to large corporations and business, and then to the wealthy.

How Are Humanoid Robots Being Used?

• Hospitality: Some humanoid robots, like Kime, are pouring and serving customer drinks and snacks at self-contained kiosks in Spain. Some are even working as hotel concierges and in other customer-facing roles.
• Education: Humanoid Robots NAO and Pepper are working with students in educational settings, creating content and teaching programming.
• Healthcare: Other humanoid robots are providing services in healthcare settings, like communicating patient information and measuring vital signs.

But before companies can fully unleash their humanoid robots, pilot programs testing their ability to safely work and collaborate alongside human counterparts on factory floors, warehouses and elsewhere will have to be conducted.

HA !

after working in several places 'with strict health and safety ' regulations

they would not know what safety was if the entire legislative text fell on their head

about the only way to may it safe would be to give the robots the right to sue the company if damaged on the job ( after all the companies are liable to be leasing them as you can bet there will be an intense upgrade cycle )

i would how the Greenies while resolve all the waste created by obsolete robots

 

[divs4ever]

The question remains indeed, what will mankind do..unless we are to compete with the robots,?
Nowadays, it is cheaper to use some Chinese Indian Pakistani or some African cohorts than installing a conveyor belt
Is that what it will become for us, all but the mega richs?

... freedom , and a return to the true Aboriginal lifestyle ( aka hunter-gather nomads )

now of course that will be a BIG problem for government workers because taxes will be paid in Bunya nuts , wallaby legs and goanna eggs , and they will be a bit stale by the time they work their way through bureaucracy to the pay envelop , sending rates will be hard ( because most won't have a fixed address )

am not sure if the mega-rich will get richer .. because they to will have to accept bunya nuts and goanna eggs for whatever they sell ( that will be a BIG pie of them if they have to sell a mansion or a yacht to pay taxes )

but it's all good these crackers have been planning this for over 50 years

 

[BossMan.]

Watching tonight's CPI figure out of the USA I will be intrigued to see if the market takes a softer print as good news or a flag that the US economy is cracking.

 

[over9k]

China's problems are internal. Its trade surplus actually just hit a high:



Despite this, the csi300 looks like this:



Western tariffs are only twisting the knife into something that is already in a total death spiral.

I've made about a million posts about china's economy having some serious, deep, properly embedded, structural issues, and if its stock market looking like this despite the trade surplus hitting a record high does not convince everyone then I don't know what could.

The result is that money is no longer pouring into china, and the chinese themselves are also getting their own money the hell out of dodge as quickly as they can:



The chinese economy is heading for complete disaster and this is so certain that it is very close to becoming general public knowledge. The smart money has been bailing out for quite some time but the mainstream news is by definition retrospective so will only inform the general public after it has happened.

The current headlines are "deflationary spiral" and that deflationary spiral is not going to stop.

It is also why I am not bullish on australia's economy going forward.

 

[divs4ever]

the chinese themselves are also getting their own money the hell out of dodge as quickly as they can:

and they will regret that just like the Russian oligarchs did ( pre-sanctions ) , because it is only a matter of time before they sanction China ( and Chinese ) when tariffs fail to work )

now of course to lower imports MIGHT signal something else even more dangerous .. self-reliance

but time will tell

 

[over9k]

My point was just that the place is fcuked even without the tariffs, the tariffs are just accelerating the process.

 

[over9k]

U.S cpi bullseye's estimates, markets drop in response, but not by a tremendous amount. Core cpi is up 0.3 vs 0.2 estimated. Fixed income is still pricing a 25 point drop at the next meeting.

In short, markets have received no surprise whatsoever.

 

[divs4ever]

My point was just that the place is fcuked even without the tariffs, the tariffs are just accelerating the process.

tariffs are selective taxes

if you have a distinct price advantage , why would you cut your prices further ( and risk further tariffs ) you are better redirecting your exports or reducing the numbers produced and let inflation wreak your revenge

for example China has a huge advantage in EVs , slap on a 100% tariff , can you really expect China to sell components needed for the EU to manufacture rival EVs meanwhile China may as well sell EVs to South America and Africa ( and South East Asia and grab market share there

the only silver-lining in tariffs is that they may increase local manufacturing ( because the competition is handcuffed ) so less likely cost effective

 

[frugal.rock]

In short, markets have received no surprise whatsoever.

Sell gold?



Buy oil?

 

[divs4ever]

Sell gold?

View attachment 184089

Buy oil?
View attachment 184092

is the Fed back playing games ( in the futures markets )

Core Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected, Collapsing Odds Of 50bps Rate Cut​

Core Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected As Shelter Costs Unexpectedly Rise | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[over9k]

Sell gold?

View attachment 184089

Buy oil?
View attachment 184092

I was talking about buying gold months ago



Oil's more of a wildcard. Demand collapse from, say, china, isn't yet being counteracted by an increase from, say, india. Same for iron ore and some other stuff I can't think of off the top of my head.

Some other commodities have had some serious supply problems and been very quiet achievers however. Coffee comes to mind:


I've been bullish on commodities and india for quite a while as you've all seen. Here's some food for thought:

 

[sptrawler]

As I see it, it is the path we're heading down and have been for some time.

Rationally no government would have allowed the housing situation to develop. A situation where even if prices crashed 50% overnight, they'd still be insanely high by historic measures.

Nobody would've believed it a generation ago that such a situation would occur. There'd be riots in the streets by now surely.

But here we are.

Go back two generations and nobody would've believed government would've allowed raw mineral exports "dig and ship" and the demise of Australian manufacturing. Because again, there'd be riots in the street over that, the unions would refuse to load the ships surely.

But here we are.

The seemingly impossible happens simply due to the turnover of the population. For a random example illustrating the concept, only about 40% of the present Australian population were alive and living in Australia when Hawke ended his time as PM. Only a third were here for the start of Kylie Minogue's music career. Just over 20% of the present national population were in Australia for Cyclone Tracy, the Tasman Bridge disaster and the dismissal of the Whitlam government. Those figures would be even lower if children too young to remember are taken out.

Time marches on, collective knowledge fades and attitudes shift relatively quickly. Go back just one generation and there's plenty of things that were taken for granted that are gone or considered unacceptable today. Likewise in the opposite direction, more than a few things that are seen as normal today were unacceptable or fringe ideas not that long ago.

Even within a political ideology that is so. Progressive and conservative politics are both very different things to just one generation ago and on many issues they've switched sides.

There's also the question of what alternative is there? The present model of the West buying just about everything from China and having less and less to sell to them can't be sustainable surely. At some point the Chinese will expect to be paid for those goods in something of actual value and at that point the game's up. Now add in the geopolitical concerns and there's my reasoning, the game's up and we're now in a slow transition phase.

Fully acknowledged I could be wrong, this is talking about the future so uncertainty exists, but that's how I see it.

How are the social engineers getting away with it?
By dumbing down the population, it solves a lot of societies problems if the masses are happy to sit at home playing games on the idiot box, rather than playing havoc on the streets.
Eventually with advances in virtual reality and store to door deliveries, people wont leave their houses.
Travel plans, will be which place am I going to visit today on my amazon 3D subscription, IMO that is why the snippets of a 'living wage' keep getting dropped into discussions.
Getting the majority of people used to and wanting to do nothing on a full time basis without increasing social anarchy takes time.
Driving down public expectations and demands, drives down the amount of money they need to fullfill their wants and needs, if all the plebs mental stimulation can be supplied over a fibre optic cable, it reduces a lot of societies costs and wastage.

 

[qldfrog]

How are the social engineers getting away with it?
By dumbing down the population, it solves a lot of societies problems if the masses are happy to sit at home playing games on the idiot box, rather than playing havoc on the streets.
Eventually with advances in virtual reality and store to door deliveries, people wont leave their houses.
Travel plans, will be which place am I going to visit today on my amazon 3D subscription, IMO that is why the snippets of a 'living wage' keep getting dropped into discussions.

Read the wef manifestos, you are nearly there
And who cares about inflation if you own nothing, rent everything, do not travel and have universal income indexed....

 

[sptrawler]

Read the wef manifestos, you are nearly there
And who cares about inflation if you own nothing, rent everything, do not travel and have universal income indexed....

There really isnt another way if human labour is required less and less in the future and it can be seen that is the case by the historical graph of employment by sectors, the only growth sector is the service industries.
Where money just goes round in a circle, nothing is exported except maybe university degrees, but even that will be superceded by AI, because the current output standard is too variable depending on the quality of lecturers.
Keeping the unwashed masses pacified, while reducing their expectations, is the tricky bit.
Interesting times ahead IMO.

 

[over9k]

 

[divs4ever]

There really isnt another way if human labour is required less and less in the future and it can be seen that is the case by the historical graph of employment by sectors, the only growth sector is the service industries.
Where money just goes round in a circle, nothing is exported except maybe university degrees, but even that will be superceded by AI, because the current output standard is too variable depending on the quality of lecturers.
Keeping the unwashed masses pacified, while reducing their expectations, is the tricky bit.
Interesting times ahead IMO.

if human labour is required less and less .. think of all the middle management jobs gone , no more health and safety manager , payroll staff may as well brush on a U-tube , hobby , supervisors and don't forget the human resources department , you might be laughing at those blue-collar stiffs , but they will sipping beer on the couch way before you ( and snatched up all the best second-hand stuff cheap )